Syria - an unhappy ending !

The world looks on in dismay as another proposed cease fire in Syria passes it's deadline with the shooting still raging.    Once again the Syrian president - Bashar Assad - has given promises he had no intention of keeping.  The people of Syria saw the " Arab Spring " unseat dictators in Tunisia, Libya and Egypt and tried to bring democracy to their own land - only to become victims of greed and posturing in the United Nations security council when Russia and China used their veto to stifle all forms of assistance.

World opinion is horrified by scenes on TV that show Assad's well equipped army using heavy weapons to massacre women and children in towns and cities that oppose his cruel rule.   So far - over nine thousand civilians have been slaughtered as the Syrian military seeks to crush all forms of resistance.

Efforts by the UN Arab League envoy, Kofi Annan to broker a cease fire looked promising.  Assad signed an agreement to withdraw his army from it's perimeter attacking cities, but at the last moment he introduced new demands -  and if anything, the ferocity of the onslaught actually increased.

Now we are seeing a new factor emerging.   Terrified Syrian citizens are pouring over the borders in to Turkey and Lebanon to seek sanctuary in tent cities, but now the Syrian army is pursuing them - and shooting into neutral territory.   The double dealing and perfidy of Assad is making even China and Russia uncomfortable. The support voiced by their ambassadors is declining and it looks like Assad has overplayed his hand.  There is still incredibly brave resistance to his despotic rule and it seems that many of his citizens are going to accept death rather than concede defeat.

The key to what happens next is undoubtedly Turkey.   It shares a border with Syria and it will not tolerate the Syrian army raiding refugee camps in it's territory.   It is likely that the Turkish army may cross the border and set up a security enclave on Syrian soil - and from there anything is possible.

As usual in the Middle East, this is another religious war.   The mix of Sh'ite and Sunni populations in various countries dictate the alliances that support or oppose the Assad regime.   The best hope for peace seems to be the degree of world opinion that is fast forming, causing the leaders of these two religious factions to have second thoughts against joining in to what could become a civil war fought over religious borders.

There would be no winners in that - and only certain losers.    It seems that Assad has bet his future on a last roll of the dice -  and he may have underestimated the degree of resistance to his rule !