Extending Federal Powers !

The Australian Constitution is very clear on the separation of power between the Commonwealth and the States.  The Founding Fathers drew a demarcation line between the responsibilities of the police and that of the Australian army.  The police are under the command of the various state governments while the army is controlled by whoever is in power in Canberra.

We have just had a situation where these control lines were put to a test.  A combination of drought and enhanced temperatures caused bushfires to rage out of control in four of the adjoining Australian states.  Bringing them under control was handled by volunteer rural fire services in each state and the situation was complex because the fires constantly crossed state borders.

Eventually, the prime minister ordered the deployment of our armed services to supply both the numbers and the specialised equipment needed to not only fight the fires but to recue people stranded on beaches when the encircling fire threatened their lives.  This did not happen sooner because the Federal government does not have the power to issue that command unless it has been requested by the relevant state government.

In the aftermath of the fires, the prime minister is suggesting that the Commonwealth needs executive power to declare a national state of emergency with clear authority and appropriate safeguards for Commonwealth action  on the prime ministers initiative , including the deployment of our defence forces.

For that to happen we would need a change in the Constitution, and that can be achieved by either a referendum or a negotiated agreement with all the state and Territory governments.  The states may be reticent in giving away that protection even though a compelling case can be constructed for its need.

During the Sydney Lindt café siege both ASIO and the army snipers were unused and the siege dragged on for many hours because of uncertainty on the legal position if they were deployed.
Exhaustion became a factor as police stood ready hour after hour and eventually a police detachment from Queensland was flown in despite the army being ready and standing by in Sydney.   This was criticised at a later Royal Commission.

It is quite possible we are in the early stages of a world pandemic with this coronavirus raging in China  and spreading worldwide.  The medical authorities are hopeful that they may quickly develop a vaccine and if that happens it is the armed forces that have the means of transport and the numbers to supply and issue it nationwide.  It seems that this safeguard embodied in the Constitution prevents the use of our armed forces in a national emergency.

The Founding Fathers inserted that separated provision for a very valid reason.  Control of the people is the responsibility of state police and should a prime minister assume dictatorial powers the Constitution prevents the use of the army being superimposed to assume state powers.   That has happened in other world countries when a leader voted into office has refused to relinquish power when the term expires.

Perhaps a good reason to consider any extension of Commonwealth power with caution  !

Legal Aid !

It is the right of every Australian in every state to be represented by a lawyer should they be charged with a serious offence and face a court.  The law is very explicit.  Should they be unable to fund a lawyer of their choice, one will be appointed and paid from public funds.

While Legal Aid NSW's in-house lawyers provide free legal help to the most disadvantaged over seventy percent of legal aid work is farmed out to  private lawyers.  When a newly minted lawyer is admitted to the bar it is with the understanding that they will accept their fair share of legal aid cases.

In some cases a person charged may have the good luck to draw a lawyer who is famous in his or her field and who usually appears for the rich and famous, but more often this duty falls to someone entering the profession and lacking court experience.   That is simply the luck of the draw and all who can legally call themselves a lawyer have the training to appear and argue a case in a courtroom.

The problem has been the rates of pay that apply.  The legal profession complains that rewards for legal aid cases are so low that lawyers doing this work earn less than the legal minimum wage when actual working hours and overheads are taken into account.

The NSW government has agreed to an $88 million  funding boost for Legal Aid and the base hourly rate for private solicitors of $150 per hour will increase by $10 from July 1 and further increase to $ 195 a hour by 2023/4.   A new alternative is now in place where Legal Aid lawyers are rewarded with a lump sum for taking on Legal Aid cases. and this is intended to cover representation for less serious criminal cases in the local and children's courts.This lump sum is intended to cover all preparation and hearing time, excluding prison visits and further funding will only be available in " the most extraordinary cases ".

That lump sum scale has been set at $1100  and many lawyers comment that this will actually be a fee reduction in all but the most minor and non-contentious cases.  The legal work often entails finding missing witnesses and building a compelling case for a non guilty verdict.  This lump sum puts a severe limitation on what research is possible.

Of course there is a very big difference in representing a person who has been wrongly charged and needs to prove innocence, and representing  those " guilty as charged.".   Good tactical advice will often see an early guilty plea result in some charges dropped and a more lenient prison outcome, but each case is different and that lump sum does dictate the extent of work possible.

The main point of Legal Aid is to ensure that those totally ignorant of the law gets some degree of professional advice and guidance in how they present their defence.  The law has vey much devolved into what is termed " plea bargaining " and a trained lawyer can be the intermediary between the accused and the prosecution in negotiating an acceptable mix of charges and pleas.

At best, Legal Aid is the difference between all the power being in the hands of the prosecution and the accused being well advised on how or what defence would best suits their needs.  It ensures that both side in the courtroom proceed according to the procedure of the law and the accused is not disadvantaged by his or her ignorance of the law.

Changes In Air Travel !

In the period between the two world wars the Atlantic crossing was dominated by steam ships.  France built the Normandie and the Brits competed with the Queen Mary and the Queen Elizabeth. The aim was to complete the journey in under five days and the cost of travelling first class made travel the domain of the rich and famous.

The airplane originally catered for travel short distances between cities, and it was the arrival of the Douglas DC3 in 1938 that changed everything. Here was a plane with a noise insulated cabin in which every passenger had a comfortable armchair like seat and the journey was attended by an air hostess who could heat a baby's bottle and provide drinks and snacks.

The era of air travel expanded into linking continents of the world and after world war two ended those propeller driven planes were replaced with jet aircraft, and the arrival of Being's 707 changed everything again..  Here was a bigger aircraft with over double the seating capacity of its predecessors and suddenly air travel was within the financial reach of the masses.

For a while it looked like the next big break through would be speed.  The world airplane manufacturers looked at the prospect of new aircraft travelling faster than the speed of sound, and quickly discovered that this was commercially noneconomic.  Only France and Britain persisted, and that gave us the Concorde.  A brilliant aircraft, but it only seated a hundred passengers and in its twenty year lifetime it never delivered a profit.  Its travel cost was subsidized on the altar of national pride.

In place of speed the aircraft industry concentrated on size and seating capacity, and that gave us the jumbo jet.  Air travel costs plummeted and are enthusiastically enjoyed by all segments of society.  The tourist industry became the mainstay of the world economy and that is now threatened by the pollution jet airplanes inflict on a warming world.

There simply is no alternative to air travel to deliver journey speed and sustain that world tourist industry which is the lifeblood of many nations.  The airplane industry is shared between the American Boeing and the European Airbus manufacturing companies.  Airbus developed a double decker model that packed in more seating, but it proved unpopular and production has been discontinued.

Both manufacturers are racing to solve that pollution problem and seem to be thinking along similar lines.  Long distance travel has been the province of four engine jet planes.  The new models coming on stream achieve the same distance with just two engines and it is hoped that this may halve the pollution problem.

Airbus recently released their A350-1000 model which seats about 360 passengers and Boeing has test flown its new 777X, both of which feature just two newly developed but more powerful engines which might be the answer to sustaining the jet age.

It looks like we will continue to see those contrails in the sky when passenger jets pass overhead.  Unless science develops a personal " transporter " as was featured in the television series" Startrek "
?   But until the phrase " Beam me up, Scotty " has relevance in the real world we seem to be stuck with the jet plane  !

Defence !

One of the biggest items of expenditure in the national budget is what we spend under the title of " Defence ".  Broadly speaking, that is the money we spend on the army, the navy and the air force in both salaries and the purchasing of the expensive equipment they need to be ready to resist invasion if we are ever attacked.

We are termed a " middling world power " which means we need to have the support of a super power to ensure our safety.  In the distant past we looked to Britain in that role during the years of the British Empire, but that changed to America during the second world war.  Our relation with America has been cordial and we have sheltered under that country's nuclear umbrella and not developed our own nuclear weapons.

America is fast retreating from world military dominance and China is the new rising world power.  These countries clash on economic policy and China's  virtual annexation of the South China sea makes a military clash almost inevitable. If and when that happens we will be judged on which side we support.

The safest option would be Australian neutrality, but that is unlikely to be a choice available to us.  Both China and America are important trade customers underpinning the Australian economy and we will have to make a choice. That choice will be critical to our place in the rest of the world.

It is interesting to compare our position with that of New Zealand.  Our neighbour recently reached the conclusion that maintaining a credible defence force was beyond the financial capacity of its small population.  It virtually abolished its air force, stopped its navy updating its fleet and reduced the army to a strength only capable of undertaking its United Nations obligations.   In essence, New Zealand became an undefended nation.

The Kiwi's do have a valid point.  To try and defend a country with an inferior defence establishment is to  ensure a humiliating defeat with heavy loss of life.  New Zealand relies on the goodwill of the world and its economy is relieved of the onerous defence burden.

That is not an option that would be considered in this country.  Australia has long remained the dominant military power in the lower South Pacific and has the strength to resist invasion from any of its near neighbours.  Our population growth ensures an adequate defence budget to meet those needs.  There is no discernible threat to Australia at present on our defence horizon.

What is important is that we accurately evaluate emerging trends.  It seems that NATO is losing cohesion and a new alliance in possible in Europe.  India - with its huge population - is fast emerging as a new power in Asia and America is an enigma as its internal politics evolve in new directions. Despite the Communist party's relentless hold on power in China there are signs of popular unrest in that country as a vast middle class emerges. The power of the Communist party seems absolute, but that may be more illusion than reality.  The regime may pay a heavy price for opening its doors and letting its citizens travel the world.

This is a time we need to read the tea leaves and discern the future - and how we place our bets will determine how we stand in a changing world. The chess board of power is ever in play and the outcome is not obvious.  A skilful diplomatic corps  goes hand in hand with a contemporary defence establishment  !

Spreading The Risk !

It seems inevitable that the premiums we pay for house insurance will increase sharply when the annual renewal falls due.  The insurance industry has taken a walloping on a world wide basis from out of control fires in many countries and from  hail and storm damage that has cost them billions

Insurance companies are in business to make a profit and their shareholders expect dividends. They spread their risk load by buying what is called " reinsurance " whereby they accept a share of damage claims in other countries.  There is safety in spreading the load because rarely do many countries suffer the same storm event at the same time.

The basis of insurance is that the premiums of the many cover the loss of the few.  Every time a number of policyholders fail to renew that pool grows smaller and premiums have to rise, and this is at a time when the house price bubble continues to rise and wages remain static.  It seems inevitable that more people will claim that their insurance premium is unaffordable - and drop their cover.

This enigma falls more heavily on those entering the home ownership market.   Usually they have secured their home with the minimum deposit and consequently they are struggling to meet the mortgage repayments.  It is a loan requirement that the loan is secured by the integrity of the house being covered by insurance and paying this is the responsibility of the new owner.

When an owner is faced with the prospect of defaulting on either the mortgage payment or the insurance renewal, the choice is obvious.  Should we encounter even a small economic recession a huge number of mortgages will be pushed over the economic edge, resulting in repossession.  That could trigger a calamitous drop in home values across the board and bring many mortgages above the value of the property market.

There could be no greater damage to the Australian economy than the collapse of  property prices.  The home we own underpins the wealth of the average family and is probably the most valued asset they will ever own.  As we learned at the 2008 recession, a house is only worth what someone else is prepared to pay for it and when it is a " buyers market " that price drops significantly.

The statistics on house fires in the past was fairly static. Thanks to an efficient fire brigade few house fires are a total loss but we now have a hotter, drier planet and fires may now encroach right into the city perimeter. An ember attack can burn homes well ahead of the fire front.

Sadly, the funds that underpin fire fighting services rely on a tax that applies to insurance premiums. The uninsured are getting the services of city fire brigades and the heroic volunteers who give untold time and effort to fire control by the RFS without making any financial contribution.

If the government chose to spread that load by dropping the tax on insurance premiums and adding it to property rates and taxes it would make fire insurance cheaper and attract more customers.  The way fire services are funded at present is inequitable.  The fire services respond to all callouts without discrimination and it would be fair if that cost was shared by every household, not just the households with an insurance policy.

Anything that encourages homeowners to insure helps spread the load  !

Flying the " Swastika " !

Late last year the residents of a home in the Victorian town of Beulah began to daily fly the old Nazi Swastika flag from a flag pole on their property.  That caused immense distress to other residents, but Australia does not have a law that bans this practice.

The Swastika became the national flag of Germany after Adolph Hitler came to power in 1933.  When Germany invaded and conquered most of Europe its Nazi government implemented a deliberate plan to exterminate its Jewish population.   Jews were rounded up and sent to concentration camps where they were systematically gassed and their bodies cremated.   Over six million men, women and children suffered this fate.

When the war ended, leaders responsible for this atrocity were tried and executed, and a remorseful German state imposes heavy penalties for displaying the Swastika.  Despite this, a new neo-Nazi political party has emerged in Germany and actually won several seats in the national parliament.  Across the world a movement to the political right is gaining confidence.  This manifests itself in attacks on Jewish cemeteries and hateful anti-Jewish propaganda directed at the Jewish state created by the United Nations in the Middle East.

Australia has many survivors of the Holocaust still alive in this country and their children are very aware of the immense death toll that took place under that Swastika.  That has caused the Australian Governor General to warn of the rising tide of anti -Semitism and call for the Swastika in any form to be banned in this country.

Where the Swastika is banned it usually results in a crudely drawn symbol with unmistakable  intent taking its place.  For many centuries the Jewish people and their religion have suffered pogroms and harsh treatment from the denizens of other races.  It was hoped that disgust at the excesses of the Nazi era had eradicated that bias, but memories fade and many countries are falling under the control of leaders with far right undemocratic policies.   The plight of Palestinians pushed aside by the creation of the Jewish state of Israel is a common reason to explain this anti-Semitism.

That Swastika being flown in Beulah does serve to deliver a public warning that people with Nazi sympathies live in that town.   If we ban the flag, we drive that movement underground.  When they fly the flag they announce their anti-Semitism clearly and that can be a good reason for many people to avoid the movement.  Banning the Swastika runs counter to the Australian tradition of  freedom to follow both the religion of choice and allegiance to a political party.

If National Socialism is stirring in Australia it is better out in the open than festering in dark places. We should remember that a plebiscite to ban the Communist party in Australia once failed.  That lack of Communist progress in Australia illustrates the wisdom of keeping political movements open for public viewing and discussion.   That Swastika would be an automatic turnoff for most people !

Spreading Relief Widely !

 The loss of a massive waterbomber and its crew underlines the intense risk to life involved in fighting bush fires.  The men and women on the ground are in danger from falling trees and sudden wind changes that can bring the fire back on them with little warning.  All the training in the world will not protect them from the unexpected.

Water bombers are a relatively new concept.  To be effective these giant airplanes need to come in low - and slow.  They are flying through smoke that lowers visibility and there are giant thermals rising from the fire below to be taken into account by the pilots.   Flying a plane in those conditions is similar to a war experience.

What is exceptional is the generosity across the nation as people have put their hands in their pockets and made donations to relief funds. Many millions of dollars are now in the hands of welfare agencies who have the responsibility to make the best use of the money in payments to victims.   As always, there will be harsh criticism on whatever formulae is applied to how this money is distributed.

One of the absolute necessities is getting those sites cleared to enable the ground to be ready for rebuilding.  Where the home was not insured that becomes the responsibility of the owner and this is work that can come at a high cost.  It is certain that the debris will contain asbestos and various rules and regulations will come into force over its disposal.  A lot of individual councils will be involved and it would be helpful if common landfill arrangements were put in place to safely dispose of this waste at minimum cost.

It is dispiriting to hear the management of those donated funds claiming that it will be years before the last of that money reaches the people in need.  It is all too easy for a bureaucracy to emerge that so slows the distribution of aid that applicants encounter a thicket of rules and regulations - and their interpretation - that not only defies logic but requires the courts to make the final decisions.

The donors of that money did so in the expectation that fire victims would get quick help in making a recovery, and the needs of individuals will be wide and varied.  Just getting clothes and household goods will be the first need of many.   Finding alternative accommodation will be high on the list for others and in some cases that will entail buying a caravan and returning to the block of land they own.

It would be unfortunate if rules and regulations imposed to safeguard the money simply prevented the innovative from accessing help.   The loss of a home is an absolute disaster for most families and a little money at the right time can help them find solutions that suit their individual needs.   That was the thought in mind by the people who donated the money.

The law will crack down hard on obvious scammers, but this is a time to be innovative and listen attentively to where assistance can relieve distress.  It is often the case where a little money at the right time can go a very long way !

The " Unbelievers " !

Probably the man highest on the power totem pole who totally debunks global warming would be the United States President, but close behind him would come a former Australian Prime Minister.  Tony Abbott is out of office and out of parliament but he has chosen to make a speech to the American Heritage Foundation which is an ultra conservative think tank.

He aired his view that the link between extreme weather events and carbon emissions  has become akin to religious dogma for many people.  According to this point of view the burning of coal and oil and the carbon dioxide that releases has nothing to do with the retreat of ice at the poles, the melting of glaciers or the rise of ocean levels.

This is a view he constantly parroted when he was prime minister, much to the delight of the oil and coal consortium which protect their industries by deploying huge amounts of money on the advertising industry to throw down a challenge to what the scientific world is telling us.  Mr Abbott is a serving member of the volunteer Rural Fire Service and recently saw action helping to fight the massive bush fires that caused death and destruction in many parts of Australia.

This is an election year in America and Mr Abbott not only debunks global warming he also seems to have adopted President Trump by virtually endorsing him for a second term.   If Trump succeeds in winning the November election that virtually ensures that there will be no American action to slow climate change for another four years, and it is America that must act if other nations are to move in concert to make this happen.

There are two solutions that could very quickly reduce the amount of carbon dioxide we are emitting.  If by law we enhance the move from oil burning internal combustion engines to electric cars world wide we would sharply reduce the demand for oil as a car fuel.
The other opportunity awaits in reducing coal as a means of generating electricity.  Some parts of the world are building new coal fired power stations as a necessity to serve their growing populations. Wind and solar are now taking an ever increasing share of the load and nuclear technology is now sufficiently advanced that it can replace coal to provided the base load.  What little risk remains is something we need to accept if we are to save the planet.

These two measures would not entirely stop global warming, but together they would reduce the use of two reasons that carbon dioxide is making this a hotter world, and both are within our reach if the will for change is strong enough.

That will is being reduced by people like Trump and Abbott peddling nonsense that contrasts with scientific reasoning.

Taking Responsibility !

The proposal to introduce a risk rating system on the building industry to try and eliminate the financial disasters which have befallen the buyers of units in Opel and Mascot Towers is certainly a worthwhile idea, but the issue still revolves around certification and the problem will not be solved until that certification process ensures that all the tenets of the building code have been complied with as the building progresses.

Several hundred Sydney buildings were clad with a flammable exterior cladding that did not comply with the state building regulations and now pose a threat of a fatal Grenfell Tower fire in this city.  All these buildings passed inspection and had a residential approval certificate applied that allowed the building to be occupied because this inspection only takes place when the building is complete.

The job of a certifier should start at the very foundation and follow construction so that each stage is signed off as complying with regulations, and that is the job of the council on whose land the construction applies.  In essence, that council certifier should be on the site daily and have the power to order work to cease if an irregularity is occurring.  The job  of the council certifier would be to ensure the new building complied with regulations.

With such a certification in place, the responsibility for fixing defects would lay with the council.  Someone has to take this responsibility and it is the council which approves building permits.  A council certifier would need to be a person of integrity who was paid according to the responsibility the job carried.  It would be up to the council to ensure that this was a person of integrity who measures up to the standard required.

The reason we are having these building problems is that certification is taken too lightly and when a defect emerges the responsibility for correction can not be legally apportioned.   We will only get building integrity when the body approving construction also has the responsibility of ensuring the correct building regulations are carried out - and carries the risk factor of fixing any faults that later emerge.

All other forms of certification should be invalid.  In particular, the very notion of the builder choosing an independent certifier is fraught with danger.  The reason we are having building faults is either builders taking short cuts that eliminate some aspect of sound building practice or are cheating on the quality weight of what is forming part of the building.   The objective is to save money and enhance profits.

When this whole problem comes down to basics, the need is for a certifier to sign off on ever aspect of the building process as the building arises.  It doesn't take the brain of Einstein to work that out  !

A " Pandemic " Threat !

The biggest threat to the human race - apart from a nuclear war - would be a pandemic that spreads from country to country  and scythes through the billions that now inhabit planet Earth.   Back in what we call the " middle ages " Europe was scourged with the " plague " and that decimated entire cities.

The last deadly Pandemic occurred just after the end of the first world war and was called the " Spanish Flu ".   Conditions for it to spread were rife because the troops from that war were travelling home on crowded troop ships and the end result was the death of millions of people.  We are still no closer to understanding how this happened and a warming planet may unearth frozen bodies that still harbour the bacteria which could start a renewal.

Now we have what the medical authorities describe as a " Coronavirus " threatening to reach epidemic proportions out of China.  It has been designated " 2019-nCoV " and it seems to be centred on the Chinese city of Wuhan.

Back in the days of the Spanish Flu air travel was in its infancy.  Today in the course of a few hours countless airplanes deliver passenger loads across all the countries of the world and with that comes the threat of unlimited contagion.  Sooner or later it seems inevitable that we will encounter a new pandemic  that we are unable to control.

Health authorities are treating this Coronavirus outbreak with suspicion.  At this stage the numbers are small but it is definitely spread by human to human contact and what kills people is the disease producing pneumonia in its later stages.  Cases have been detected in South Korea, Thailand and Japan and airport screenings are now a necessary precaution.

What is ominous is that there are three direct flights each week between Wuhan and Sydney.  The passengers on those flights breathe recirculated air for many hours during the journey and at this stage we have no idea how long exposure to the disease takes before symptoms become apparent. The only precaution possible is detection of passengers with a fever or high temperature at arrival stations.

China is the worlds most populous country and industrialization has caused its citizens to congregate in cities. Science predicts that the next deadly pandemic will originate in the crossover from a bird species to humans and most likely the culprit will be ducks.   Ducks are intensively farmed in Chinas and feature predominantly in the food chain.

We recently had a fear that Ebola might escape its confinement in Africa but that seems to be reaching a control level.  It seems that sheer luck has been on our side and we have not experienced a serious pandemic since the Spanish Flu back in 1918.  It seems inevitable that one day that luck will run out  !

Settling Into A New Role !

Harry and Meghan will no longer be announced as " His or her Royal Highness " and that title of " Duke and Duchess of Sussex " will not have the same cachet. They have not exactly reverted to the role of " commoners " but the Queen has laid down explicit rules that they will be forced to follow. There is speculation that they may never again return to the land of grace and favour extended to those titled folk who permeate British society.

Britain is well known for its aristocracy.  In many ways it is a society that values " class " as much as India and just observing the flow of citizens on a city street is a review of class membership.  They dress very differently and when they speak the listener has no doubt of which class each person belongs.   That class rating is instrumental in deciding  entry into many professional qualifications and in the past was decisive in the makeup of the public administration.

Strangely, within this upper class there is a sharp distinction of rank.  It is the same " old money " and " new money " that divides society across the world spectrum and in Britain that distinction is rife.  It all depends on when you received both your title and your money, and that separation is chronicled in the history books.

The Monarchy in England had a turbulent past which is known as the " War of the Roses " and this was when many titles were created.  Wealthy land owners needed to pick a side to support and those that chose the winning side were usually rewarded with a title and the land of the vanquished. Those titles were hereditary and according to the law of " Primogeniture " both the title and the money passed to the eldest son of the titleholder.  Britain was awash with many younger sons who had minor titles bestowed by birth association with a title holder but who lacked money.  Along with the title came the privilege of a seat in the House of Lords.

A newer source of aristocracy came when the East India Company established a trading monopoly with the Indian subcontinent which ultimately led to the British Raj.  It was a time when vast fortunes were made at Indian expense and the victors returned to England and used their wealth to gain entry to parliament.  Wealth subverted power and it was usual for such people  to gain accession to the aristocracy by using their wealth to gain a bestowed title.  It became fashionable to craft a great estate somewhere in the countryside to add lustre to that title.  Such are the great homes so admired today in Britain's tourist realm.

Wisely, when the Australian colonies met to decide the formation of a Commonwealth nation it was decided that we would not adopt such a realm of reward.  The highest accolade would be a knighthood limited to the lifespan of the holder and that system has served this country well.  No doubt we will eventually get a visit from Harry and Meghan in their quasi Royal role.   They are joining the world of " celebrities " who gain public adulation by the news interest they gather and there is no doubt they will be made welcome.

It will be interesting to see how this defection settles in rank conscious Britain now that a remote heir to the throne has abdicated his duties.  A lot depends on the type of lifestyle Harry and Meghan adopt.  The fact that they will be responsible for earning their own living makes some sort of business arrangement inevitable and that may not sit well with regal expectations.  But a Britain seeking a new future outside the European Union will undoubtedly encounter change from within and this may be the breath of fresh air its aristocracy needed.

The world will sit back and wait to see how this episode ends !

The " Retirement " Conundrum !

A huge number of Australians are approaching the age when it is usual to retire without  a sufficient nest egg to cover the years that will be without a weekly pay packet.  The best they can look forward to is the age pension and that is only sufficient to fund an austere lifestyle.

A long time ago superannuation was supposed to cover all when the government imposed a  compulsory " Superannuation Guarantee " (SG) policy which required all employers to contribute a percentage of their employees wages into a superannuation fund for their retirement.  It was made clear this was entirely different from their take home pay, which would not be reduced when SG commenced.

That SG employer contribution is presently set at 9.5% of the weekly wage and there are moves to increase it to 12% in 2025.  Despite this employer contribution, a lot of people are falling by the wayside and there is concern that extending the SG will further slow wage growth which is not increasing in tandem with living costs.

It is one of the mysteries of economics why wages are stagnant.  Most industry  segments have increased profitability and the unemployment figure remains low.  We actually have job vacancies for qualified people that are not being filled and yet wages are holding at a static level.

Research by the Grattan Institute last year found that even though employers are required to pay SG  on top of workers salaries, contributions are more likely to come out of employees pay packets.  It could well be that SG is the factor holding down what should be traditional wage increases geared to economic activity.

The initial thinking when SG was being considered was for the employee and the employer to jointly fund this retirement nest egg.  The employers contribution was mandated by an act of parliament, but any employee contributions was voluntary.   It is quite clear that a big percentage of the workforce made no effort to fund their side of the retirement issue.

It is also clear that SG does not cover all employment types. The modelling does not take into account casual work, gender or time out of the workforce.   It is an initiative that suits some, but not all.   It completely ignores what is termed the " Gig " economy and undervalues women who usually take time out to raise children and receive less than the male wage.

Some economists view that increase of SG to twelve percent with trepidation.  There is the fear that many employers will consider it a wage rise in their mindset and further retard real wage growth which is stifling the economy.  There is every expectation that this SG increment will be regarded with hostility by employers.

SG was a good idea intended to level the playing field.  It extended a retirement fund to all, but it came at the employers expense.  Perhaps the notion that all members of society are entitled to reach retirement age with sufficient funds to avoid the pension is an illusion.

A lot of thinking is based on the fact that we humans are living longer, but it is not ideal if a worker remains relatively poor all their working life in the expectation of a big superannuation payout - and dies shortly thereafter.   Perhaps a good time to have a long and searching look at this whole SG question !

A Coming Car Price Hike !

Traditionally, January or February are the best months to buy a new car.  Dealers are pricing the remnants of last years stock at discounted prices and if you are prepared to buy a car with a 2019 build plate you can save a mint of money.  It is exactly the same as the 2020 built car sitting alongside it in the showroom but in the eyes of the car valuers it is now classed as being a year older.  That used to be a big issue when it became time for as trade-in, but the trade-in market for lower priced cars has virtually disappeared.

There used to be a wide margin between the fitting out of cars in the higher and lower price range but competition has shaved the difference.  Rear vision cameras and ungraded music systems are basic now across most model ranges and the build quality has come a long way since those first Japanese " buzz boxes " appeared on the road.  In today's market, the cars with the limited warranty and unknown performance are the new brand arrivals from China and there is the expectation that they will quickly become very competitive.

New car prices have remained fairly static through 2019 as dealers have absorbed the cost of a falling Australian dollar but there is the expectation that there will be a correction during this year.  The pundits estimate that this will range between $500 and $1000 for cars in the price range from $20,000 to $50,000.  The contributing factor will be determined by where the cars are actually built.

During the past year the Australian dollar has fallen eighteen percent against the Thai Baht and fifteen percent againstb the Japanese Yen..  Both of these countries are the major manufacturers of the cars that are sold in Australia with Japan scoring 41.4% of overall sales and Thailand  25,5%.

We may be surprised to find that this is so because we tend to evaluate car brands with the country of origin of their maker.   The big selling Toyota HiLux and the Ford Ranger are produced in Thailand and other popular cars like the Toyota Carolla , Mazda Hatchback and CX5, Subaru Forester, Honda CR-V, and Toyota RAV are predominantly made in Japan with some produced in Thailand.

How the Australian dollar is holding up against other foreign currencies has a lot to do with what price tag sits on windshields here.  It is expected that European luxury cars will avoid this price hike because the Australian dollar has only dipped against the Euro by 4.6% over the past two years.

The money managers warn that we probably have about a window of from now to the end of March to buy a new car at the old price..  The car companies lock in their " hedged funds " on exchange rates for a set period.   That period is about to expire and the new rates are predicted to start arriving by the end of March.

New car sales in Australia have eased off from market expectations.  From a safety point of view it is clear that the latest technology built into the modern car is far superior to that of vehicles just five years old, and thats a good reason to update the family car provision plan  !

Squeezing Our Exports !

It would be far too early to claim that the tariff war between the United States and China is over.  At best we could say that the deal that recently got inked has calmed things down and that has been welcomed by the commercial world.  The stock markets reached a new high, but we need to remember that what goes up has an uncanny knack of reversing direction with little warning.

The aspect of this deal which concerns Australia is the promise by the Chinese to substantially buy more from the United States.    China is Australia's biggest export customer and if China looks to increase purchases from America it is certain to cut the volume it buys from other countries.  It is almost certain that this will be detrimental to Australia's trading balance.

What we sell to China in a big volume is coal and iron ore and America is also a big coal exporter.  Donald Trump has every reason to welcome a surge in American coal exports because of the jobs they create in the heartland that voted him into office.   The timing couldn't be better because this is an election year.

Australia is fast becoming the major nation supplying the world with liquefied natural gas (LNG) and once again China is a major customer.  Because of " fracking " the United States has a surplus of  LNG and we can expect American sales to China to cut into our export market.  We can probably expand LNG sales to India but Russia is dominating the European market and its direct pipelines make this a hard market for us to crack.

Another market that has been expanding is the supply of Australian fruit and vegetables to China.  We have a huge advantage of being in the southern hemisphere so our summer contrasts with the northern hemispheres winter.   This seasonal advantage has worked in our favour but the giant American agricultural industry will be eager to grab a bigger market share and hydroponic production is fast eliminating seasonal advantage.

That increase in American exports to China has to come from somewhere and there are other market  segments that are important to Australia.  We sell China large quantities of beef, wheat, cotton and seafood and China may relish cutting out export quotas because of our criticism of their spy activity in Australia and rejection of Huawei to supply parts to our telecommunication industry.  Relations are frosty between Canberra and Beijing.

That deal between China and the United States calls for China to buy $290 billion more from the United States in exchange for the United States  cutting tariffs on $110 billion of Chinese exports.
It seems we may need to sharpen the pricing pencil and go after new markets to fill that void.  There is nothing like a challenge to get Australian ingenuity into play when we have a marketing hole to fill  !

Getting It Right !

All across the world a mass movement is gearing up to demand that governments take remedial action to hold world temperature to a level that will stop the rise of sea levels which will swamp our cities.  This takes the form of demonstrations in the streets to kids walking out of school and making banners to express their concern.

Vested interests have done much to promote the view that global warming is a fallacy.  Both the oil and the plastics industries have been tenacious fighters to stall action programmes and the public have been inundated with so called " specialists " paid to debunk what we see happening around us.

Perhaps the greatest distortion of the facts occurs when the proprietors of the newspapers we read and the media channels we follow have a personal view that is the opposite of what we see happening to our world.   Despite the " freedom of the press " claimed by the journalists who write the stories it is very clear that the management view is what pervades under those newspaper mastheads.

Never has that been clearer than here in Australia.   Richard Murdock and News Corp have the lion's share of what the average citizen reads and views.  The newspaper mastheads emanating from the New Corp stable include  "The Australian, " " The Daily Telegraph " and the " " Herald Sun ".   This is compounded by the audience gained by the " Fox " news coverage on television.

We have just had perhaps our worst bushfire event since records began.   Fires have been burning out of control across the entire Australian continent.  Homes have been destroyed and lives lost,. and the damage done to the tourist industry will probably put many choice destinations back years as they struggle to continue.

The reports on this fire by News Corp avoid any reference to global warming having influence in the destruction. In fact, two of their star columnists are active climate change deniers.  Andrew Bolt and Piers Akerman have a big following and their advice is widely followed.   It can be argued that the climate change apathy that has existed for so long in Australia has a lot to do with the guidance flowing from media sources.

Rupert Murdock is a giant in the news industry.  He fought - and won - an epic battle for control of the press in Britain and he has an unrivalled presence here in Australia.   He is now an old man, but he has two sons following in his footsteps.  What is significant is that one of those sons - James Murdock - has broken with the family denial and is now actively promoting the need for a political programme to hold down the world temperature.

This might be the rallying cry that makes a huge difference to public opinion.  Global warming will affect every man, woman and child in this world and the vast number of employees in the Murdock empire must tire of their employers view dictating the slant of how the news is presented.  Perhaps the era of proprietors dictating their views as the newspapers policy is coming to an end.

In this enlightened twenty-first century, the day when the man with the money told people what to think belongs in another age. Specially when our very survival rests on making the right decision !

Repeating History !

Queen Elizabeth faced a fateful decision when she had to decide whether to agree to Prince Harry and Meghan becoming " part time Royals ".  The monarchy of England dates back centuries and it has always been something that the people hold in awe.  In many ways the person who sat on the throne held a similar reverence to God.

Queen Victoria was a very reserved Queen and the palace gates were kept locked against outside intrusion.  It was during her reign that the British Empire reached its apex and that mystique was preserved until a Royal scandal evoked newspaper headlines around the world.  The Prince of Wales refused coronation as king unless he was allowed to marry an American woman divorcee.

Permission was refused and that man went into exile and his brother became the new King. He served the country during the hazardous days of the second world war, and on his death the throne passed to his eldest daughter.  Most would agree that she has been an exemplary Monarch and she has certainly opened the palace by inviting the television cameras inside and dispelling many of the myths surrounding the Monarchy.

Unfortunately, during Elizabeth's reign the twenty-first century caught up with the Royals.  Most of her children suffered divorces and the travails of the Prince of Wales and his wife, Princess Diana read like a tabloid news story.  The Prince eventually married his mistress and seems likely to become the next King of England.

The Monarchy today is very different from the time of Queen Victoria.  We have a whole bunch of senior and junior Royals who appear on cue to shake hands, cut ribbons and open events.  The Queen and her consort husband are gradually handing their duties to the younger Royals and now a Duke and a Duchess are going missing in action.

There is no way the news media is going to ignore Harry and Meghan.   They may even find they are more in the spotlight than during their days as working Royals and it is likely they will face the cameras in whatever they do to earn a living.   They will spend part of each year in Canada and the other in Britain and their life will continue to be of public interest.

It is possible they will not engage in commercial activity if their lifestyle is financed from the estate Prince Charles inherited as Prince of Wales, but that would end their stated obsession of withdrawal from public life.  It would be distasteful to many people to imagine the couple living on handouts from Harry's rich father as that would be viewed as another Royal extravagance.

There may also be a degree of criticism that Megan stayed in Canada and let Harry face his audience with the Queen alone.  No doubt some viewers will make the connection to that previous king who abdicated because he was refused permission to wed a divorced American woman.   Harry married a divorced American woman and he is also abdicating his Royal duties.

Most people will wish Harry and Meghan well but the ongoing publicity is not going to do much to preserve the mystique that has been the bond between the Throne and the common people !

The Aftermath !

There is the expectation that long awaited rain which is likely at the end of this week will help the firefighters gain control of the fires that have created havoc for many weeks this summer, but we have two months of hot weather still to come and rain on the fire grounds will deliver a new threat in many areas.

The fire intensity left nothing but bare earth and that life preserving rain is likely to contribute to landslides.  That will be particularly prevalent in the Blue Mountains where bare land now faces both the road and railway system.  Soil washed down from steep slopes will have a tendency to block natural creeks and this fire season a very new fire retardant has been dropped over vast areas of the countryside.

Those giant water bombers were critical in saving many homes from destruction and the pink fire retardant they dropped is not harmful for humans but when it washes into waterways there is the possibility that it will encouraged algae blooms - and that can kill fish and other aquatic life.  On the south coast oyster farming has been put on hold because both ash and fire retardant have affected the waterways where they are farmed.

The fires were destructive to native fauna and in particular our Koalas are now hovering on the brink of being declared a " threatened " species.  Rescuers have swung into action to locate and treat injured animals but it is feared that their numbers have been decimated, The survivors face an uncertain future.  Their natural habitat is now bare and it will be many months before the trees recover and produce the Eucalypt leaf that they eat.  Moving them to a new location risks setting off a turf battle with the other residents who resist the newcomers.

The intensity of the fires caused heavy casualties in many animal species and the aftermath is a total lack of food.  Emergency measures have been instituted and caches of carrots and other vegetables have been air dropped to ward off starvation.  Sadly, many animals that have been reintroduced in the bush may have been wiped out in the fires and we will not know how the numbers stack up until surveys are taken in the future.

The one thing absolutely certain is that we have entered a new era of infrequent rain and added fire risk.  We can expect longer and hotter summers and consequent increased fire intensity.  Risk reduction by way of burn offs will need to be increased and this will increase the number of days that cities and towns will be affected by smoke.  That is simply the price we have to pay if we are going to successfully tame the fire demon.

Perhaps one of the things we need to learn is one of the basic laws of science.  " To every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction ".  Fire retardant is a brilliant new way of fighting fires, but it does deposit something new on the fire ground and how that reacts with nature is something that takes time to be discovered.

Fire fighting foam has been used for years to quell oil fires, and only recently has its harmful effects become clear to humans.   The outcome and effect of this fire season will be with us for many years to come !

A Vote For " Freedom " !

It could not be clearer !   China's two overseas territories are rejecting rule from Beijing despite the ruling Communist party of China threatening to impose its rule by force.  Taiwan has just had a general election and its leader has received fifty-seven percent of the vote.  President  Tsai Ing-wen has cautiously held Beijing at bay as it demands that her island state accept a similar " one country, two systems " regime as applies in Hong Kong.

Hong Kong has recently embarrassed China when millions of its residents took to the streets  in angry demonstrations against a law change that would have imposed the mainland court system and punishments for crime in the offshore colony.  When the proposed law was withdrawn but not  cancelled the unrest virtually shut down the economy and even now the People's Liberation Army is still massed at the border and posing an intervention threat.

When the British colony of Hong Kong was handed back to China when its lease expired in 1997 a carefully crafted arrangement came into force.  China agreed that a range of freedoms not available to residents of the mainland would exist for a fifty year term. The interpretation of just what that meant quickly came into dispute.

The people of Hong Kong expected to be able to elect their own form of government but Beijing insisted on vetting the candidates able to stand and only allow candidates with its blessing to appear on the voting paper.  In this way, Beijing controlled the agenda and dissidents began to disappear mysteriously in Hong Kong and reappear on the mainland claiming to be repentant for their sins. There is a very evident mood of freedom in Hong Kong with residents wishing to maintain their autonomy as permanently separate from mainland control.

Taiwan is an island formerly known as Formosa.  When the civil war ended with the defeat of the nationalists their remnant fled to Formosa and established a separate regime which was protected by a treaty with the United States. Communist China frequently shelled offshore islands and the US Navy reinforced its presence by sailing an aircraft carrier fleet through the Taiwan strait separating the two regimes.

Mainland China is fast achieving military parity with the United States and the two heavyweights are locked in an economic battle over tariffs which is straining the world economy.  China has long threatened to resume control of Taiwan by force and should it do so this raises the question of American intervention.  Would the US go to war to stop China invading Taiwan  ?

Eventually, that is a question that Chinese leader Xi Jinping must make.  Chinas has relentlessly isolated Taiwan by demanding other nations break relations with it if they wish to trade with mainland China.  World opinion  would probably side with China. Taiwan is a minor player in the world trade stakes and American protection of Taiwan has had more to do with stopping the Communist system expansion than affinity for the residents of Taiwan.

Xi Jinping has been remarkably tolerant with the unrest in Hong Kong.   That electoral win by Tsai Ing-wen is a slap in the face for the Chinese leader in Beijing and it may move Taiwan closer to resolution in his mind.  Sooner or later a resurgent China is going to put the Taiwan question to the test.  What happens then is the division of opinion that will be forced on a very nervous world !

Air Safety !

One hundred and seventy six passengers and crew in a Ukranian aircraft climbing to its cruising height out of a Teheran airport met a fiery death when the plane was intercepted by a surface to air missile.  The shrapnel simply tore the aircraft apart and the debris landed over a wide area of multiple fires.

This tragedy is part of political tension between Iran and the United States of America which saw a prominent Iranian General die from a missile fired from an American drone as he drove away from an Iraqi airport.  In response, the Iranians fired seventeen missiles at two American bases in Iraq and the Iranian defence posture was on high alert in expectation of a possible American counter strike.  It is highly likely that a responder simply mistook the passenger jet for an incoming strike - and acted accordingly.

Initially, the Iranians tried to put the blame on the American built Boeing aircraft and refused to hand over its " black box " information records, but the intercepting SAM was visible on radar and the Iranian authorities had no option other than to come clean and admit it had been a ghastly mistake on their part.

Over the years there have been several passenger aircraft destroyed when similar identification mistakes have taken place in conflict zones.  A Malaysian passenger jet was shot down over Ukraine when a Russian invasion was taking place and the Americans destroyed an Iranian passenger jet when it was misidentified as posing a strike threat to an American warship.   In such situations the order to fire leaves little time for further evaluation if it is to be effective.

The danger can also be caused by a slight navigation error.  A South Korean passenger jet was destroyed by a Russian fighter plane when it strayed off course close to a Soviet defence installation.  In the course of the average day probably hundreds of passenger aircraft flying international air routes are being tracked and evaluated by the SAM defence batteries of countries over which they overfly.  It is an interesting conjecture to wonder how many have come close to destruction by a similar error that downed that jet in Iran  ?

Jet flights are automatically disrupted when volcanoes shoot volcanic ash high into the sky and this caused jet engines to choke and shut down, but they keep flying to maintain international flight schedules when disputes between countries reach razor edge.  Communications and the interchange of people between countries is important to world commerce and the peace process so that air services are maintained in almost every circumstance.

Many world airlines will assure their passengers that air routes have been carefully rescheduled to avoid danger but in many parts of the world the people who fly in planes can be sure that their journey is being tracked by SAM sites with the potential to shoot them out of the sky.

In particular, there is a danger zone over the South China sea which is at the fulcrum of many air routes.  That is claimed as sovereign territory by China, despite that claim being unanimously rejected by the United Nations.   Just something to muse on while you relax and enjoy the journey !

The Lost Year !

The south coast of New South Wales has an economy that is closely geared to tourism.  The season starts before Christmas and reaches its peak before ending shortly after Easter and that peak business cycle provides the income that serves business for the entire year.

This looks like being a lost year.   The fires started just as the holiday crowds were preparing to rush the resorts and evacuation needs saw people trapped on beaches as they awaited recue.   The roads were closed because of the fire danger and this fire season is fast becoming a national emergency that will continue until we get a sustained rain event.   Even the crystal ball gazers can not predict when that will happen.

The image of the south coast in most people's minds is now a vista of burned out houses and ruined forest. In many holiday towns the fires burned right to the waters edge of the beaches and everything is covered in a thick layer of ash.  As a result, resorts that were not even touched by the fire are receiving cancellations for the rest of this holiday season.

The coast economy is geared to making its money during this holiday peak and demand drops away sharply when it is over.  It is not only the accommodation providers who benefit because in summer the area is crowded with day trippers and it is all the little shops that provide their needs.  The cafes and coffee shops are crowded and the butchers and bakers are busy providing the fare for those that park their caravans for a stay at the beach.

Those lost incomes will probably see some businesses close their doors and not reopen.  It may take more than twelve months for the memory of the destruction to fade and the area regain its popularity and the income loss may be too much for some families.  This tourist peak was also a bonanza for the local job market.  Many permanent residents got a job helping out when demand was at its peak.

The government is looking at ways to assist with this business loss because the fires have been a national disaster. It may be possible to offer grants to councils so that they can offer temporary rate relief to residents and car registration costs could be relaxed in areas where the fires have delivered a business loss.  A reduction in fixed overheads may allow many businesses to ride out this financial storm.

What also is needed is a little relaxation from the banks and the owners of property collecting rental in these fire areas.  This is a temporary income loss and a harsh attitude will simply prolong the misery and drive some businesses to permanently shut up shop.  When the fires are finally extinguished it would be helpful if government advertising helps regain the image of a vibrant south coast open for business again.

The Abdication !

Prince Harry and his bride, Meghan Markle certainly stunned the Queen when she learned of their withdrawal  from " senior Royal duties " from a television news programme.  The Duke and Duchess of Sussex and their son Archie have been mesmerising the public from when the first days of their " togetherness "  became official.

Cynics in British society will probably blame Meghan.  After all she was American - and a movie actress - who managed to snare the worlds most eligible bachelor and that led to a wedding that was a world event, a hereditary title and a palace refitted to her taste from the public purse.  Is it any wonder she tired of the functional duties of shaking hands and opening events where one of the Royals performs their Royal duties  ?

The British House of Windsor is one of the last remaining monarchies and it is often branded out of step with modern times. It has regularly endured Royal scandal and it has changed little since the glory days of empire.  The Queen has done a sterling job of holding Britain together, but her rule is coming to an end and perhaps the Duke and Duchess of Sussex are the fore runners of how the House of Windsor will present as this twenty-first century develops.

Harry and Meghan propose to split their time between Britain and north America, and presumably that means both the United States of America and Canada, where they have shown recent affinity. They propose becoming responsible for their own upkeep.  They are relatively rich in their own right.  Meghan was a successful actress and Harry inherited from his mother, Princess Diana, but their announcement suggests that they may engage in some sort of business activity.

Perhaps Harry and Meghan are looking to extend the reach of the Monarchy into the countries of the Commonwealth.  When Australia, Canada, New Zealand and other Commonwealth countries gained independence it was at a time when the empire was at its height and the decision to retain the Monarch as head of state was very logical.   That arrangement is under a great deal of pressure today.

Britain is wracked by an abundance of titled peerage preserved under the edict of primogeniture - in which the first born son - and now daughter - inherits both the title and the money.  Two of Queen Elizabeth's grandsons experienced that division.  William as first born was automatically the " heir " and Harry was relegated as " the spare " in the event of William becoming deceased before he became the Monarch. Harry is now further down that line of accession. There is a growing feeling that there are just too many " Royals " feeding off the public purse and it seems that Harry and Meghan are voluntarily thinning their ranks.

Announcing their intent without first talking with the Queen may have been a deliberate tactic to gain independence.  This declaration signals that they will make their own decisions and not be bound by arbitrary rules imposed as a matter of protocol by the government of Britain.  Harry has always been something of a maverick and he and his American born wife are seeking to create a life of their own outside the gold fish bowl that constricts the other Royals.

This could be the breath of fresh air that the British establishment needs, but it could be a disaster if it goes wrong.  Most people will wish Harry and Meghan well as they step out of the gilded cage and seek to create a life of their own in the real world !

On The Brink !

Here we are at the start of what will be an election year in the United States and Donald Trump has taken the Middle East close to war with Iran when he blatantly ordered his military to launch a missile attack that killed one of that country's major figures.

This was not a secretive CIA operation.  Major General Qassem Soleimani had just flown in to Iraq's Baghdad airport when an American drone launched a missile .  It scored a direct hit on the car the Major General and several Iraqi military counterparts were sharing and that group of people were instantly killed.

Soleimani was the military genius directing Iran proxies in other Middle East countries who oppose the American presence in the region.  His death has been the cause of anguish in Iran and he was accorded a state funeral which attracted thousands. It is reported that these crowds got so out of hand  that panic developed and many mourners were crushed to death.

Iran has responded with a measured counter blow.  It launched about twenty medium range missiles at two air bases in neighbouring Iraq.  Several crashed short of the targets, but no resulting deaths have been reported and the damage appears to be minimal.  It is evident that Iran is well aware of the superiority of the massive American military in comparison to its own forces.

Iran has responded with what its leaders obviously regard as an adequate military response and the ball is now back in Trump's court.  Most likely Trump has achieved the outcome that he desired. This type of bold military action will have enormous appeal to the redneck American voters who propelled him into office four years ago - and he needs their continued support if he is to achieve re-election.

Trump excels at brinksmanship.  Both Russia and China are sponsors of Iran but neither would be likely to deliberately engage in a war with America to back that support and Trump knows he can extract voter support by facing down his enemies.  For a man who never served in the military, Trump is now  adopting the image as a war hawk which he hopes will propel him into another term in office.

This election year will be a danger of miscalculation.  The middle east is the fulcrum of several of the world's great religions and all are centred on the Jewish state of Israel.  Israel is undergoing a time of political uncertainty and is moving closer to annexing land won from the Palestinians in earlier wars and which was supposed to be part of a settlement that included a Palestinian state.  A war in the middle east would be catastrophic for the world economy because the major part of the world oil supply is beneath the soil of the countries likely to be involved.

Here in Australia the price of petrol peaked at the pumps when the news of that assassination entered the news cycle.  We have far less than the proposed ninety day fuel reserves held on our shores and we are vulnerable to any fresh hostilities in that part of the world.

Iran has recommenced its race for nuclear weapons and Trump has promised to stop that happening. Unfortunately, peace or war is tightly entwined in Trump's race for a second term. That danger will increase if the polls show Trump s likely to lose to a competitor.  He is a man who takes risks to win !

Welcoming " Claudia " !

This fire emergency will not be over until we get sustained heavy rain to saturate the fuel load and the most likely reason that will happen is having a cyclone form in the north in what we term the " wet season ".

We have already experienced the first cyclone of the new year off the coast of Western Australia and that projected the rain that has been helping the firefighters get the upper hand in the past few days, but a low pressure system developing east of Darwin looks more promising and this is expected to develop into cyclone " Claudia ".

If Claudia performs to the hopes of the weather people it could be the salvation that ends this bushfire emergency and brings drought relief to many of the country's farmers, not to mention repairing the water supply to numerous country towns.   Claudia looks like being exactly the right thing - in the right place and at the right time.

Unfortunately, cyclones are capricious beasts.  A lot will depend on the cyclone strength and exactly where it chooses to roam.  It will gain strength when over the northern ocean and if it chooses to make landfall it is likely to project a rain band that reaches as far south as Tasmania, but luck will choose where that rain falls and many areas may miss out.

At this stage, Claudia is expected to intensify to category two and that is far below the strength of " Tracy " which destroyed Darwin on Christmas eve of 1974.   Category five cyclones are the most destructive but even lesser strengths deliver dangerous winds and weather watch is warning our northern residents to make preparations.  They would be wise to  stockpile food and have a clear idea of where emergency shelters are located in their area.

There seems little doubt that we have been experiencing a weather change. Summers have been getting hotter and we have recently broken long standing temperature records and most people put the blame on global warming.  What remains unclear is exactly what a hotter climate might deliver in the way of events we thought were safely confined to the far north of Australia.

The thought of a tropical cyclone reaching as far south as Sydney is terrifying.  Our homes are not built for that sort of weather and the destruction would be immense.  Then there are both the animals and the pathogens that thrive in the heat and a permanent weather change may bring a creeping invasion moving into new territories.

This bushfire summer may be a warning of things to come.  It is heartening to see global warming being taken seriously by many doubters but taking steps to create change is still in its infancy. Perhaps the fire destruction we have just witnessed is a preview of the summers that lay ahead.  The summer we used to enjoy is fast becoming the season we will come to dread because of the fire and destruction that is inevitable.

In the future, winter may be the safer season - and the one we prefer  !

A fINE lINE !

It is generally accepted that " whistle blowers  " that bring crime to public attention need to have their identity protected because they would otherwise be vulnerable to harm from the very people they have exposed to criminal sanctions.  Investigative journalists in particular claim this as a privilege of their profession and would suffer imprisonment rather than reveal the identity of their sources.

That is very much a double edged sword.  Australia's most decorated soldier is suing the nation's foremost newspaper, the Sydney Morning Herald for what he claims is defamation by two of their Walkley Award winning journalist's stories that accuse him of outright murder.  At issue are forty-nine documents that Nick McKenzie and Chris Masters claim could expose the identity of their sources, which would breach their ethical duties.

Ben Roberts-Smith is the holder of the Victoria Cross for bravery, possibly the world's most prestigious decoration and the one that requires every officer, including those above that soldier's rank, to acknowledge that medal by giving it a salute.  It is indeed a rare and precious decoration and is clearly the most superior award that can possibly be won in battle.

Roberts-Smith served in Afghanistan with Australian forces and a newspaper story in 2018 accused him of kicking an unarmed and handcuffed prisoner off a cliff before ordering an associate to shoot him.  He claims this story painted him as someone who " broke the moral and legal rules of military engagement " and committed murder while on overseas deployment.

Mr Roberts-Smith denies any wrongdoing  and claims the soldier alleged to have been ordered to shoot the prisoner had been stood down months previously.  This case is due to go to trial this June and the Sydney Morning Herald is claiming that the articles do not defame Mr Roberts-Smith and that they can prove the truth of the allegations.

Mr Roberts-Smith has just lost a court action to have those forty-nine documents examined in court. The finding found that in order to disregard the journalists claimed privilege  " it must be quite clear that there is information available which  discloses the informant's identity, or enables the identity to be ascertained. "    The Justice said " he wasn't satisfied  there was a disclosure that had already  displaced  journalists privilege ".

What is quite clear is that the holder of the Victoria Cross and Australia's most decorated veteran who served in the Special Air Services is accused of a battlefield crime.  It seems that his accusers will remain unknown and whatever the outcome by innuendo a stain will remain on Roberts-Smith's character.

The right to know also comes with responsibilities  !

Start of the " McKenzie's Mission " !

Childbirth is a time of joy - and anxiety for most parents.  It is their fervent wish that the newborn will have ten little fingers and ten little toes - and everything in between will be in perfectly working order.

Unfortunately, that is not always so.  A small percentage of babies are born with genetic defects that limit their life span or cause them not to reach their life's potential and usually the cause is buried deep in their parents genetics.  It is the genetics of the parents that go on to create the genetics of the children they produce.

Now a twenty million dollar Federal government funded project named " McKenzie's Mission " is underway to test for seven hundred deadly diseases that could be passed on to children.  The would-be parents will be tested for some 1300 genetic mutations linked to more than 700 rare autosomal recessive and X linked genetic conditions, including spinal muscular atrophy, cystic fibrosis and fragile X syndrome.The project was named after baby McKenzie Casella who was diagnosed with the most extreme form of SMA.  McKenzie died in October 2017 at seven months old.

This landmark trial could pave the way for  population wide pre-conception carrier screening.  A handful of Sydney couples are among the first of thousands to use free genetic testing  for more than 700 genetic diseases that could be passed on to their children.  Testing by commercial companies has been available for some time but these tests covered only a handful of genetic conditions and cost between $300 and $600.  This government sponsored initiative is free.

Getting adverse testing results does not stop a couple producing children.  The aim of the project is to produce knowledge that pre-conception couples can take into their considerations when planning their futures.  Couples are provided with educational material  and talk through the process with a genetic counsellor.

At this stage, it is hoped to recruit ten thousand pre-conception couples to take testing. Having a baby with afflictions  is both emotionally and financially impacting and many couples will haver a sense of relief when they receive a clear testing result.  Such testing could become a rite of passage in the process of choosing a life partner.

Recruitment will ramp up at the end of January and it is hopeful that testing will be promoted through general practitioners  and the wider health spectrum.  This is a wise initiative that can only be helpful in ensuring that the birth of a child is a happy event  !

A New Child Car Safety Risk !

The vexing question of how to achieve child safety in the average car just got a bit more complex.  The law requires that children carried in cars be protected by the provision of child safety seats that vary according to both age and body weight. They are not cheap and it is essential that they be properly fitted to meet the safety standards claimed.

Many are fitted by the parents of the child and an amazingly high percentage get that wrong. Not all parents have the aptitude to follow an installation plan correctly and where there is the slightest doubt safety would be better served by paying the small fee to have the restraint installed professionally.

Now safety research by the Transurban Road Safety Centre at Newroscience  Australia has revealed that the make and model  of car has a big impact on how safely children travel even when they are in an approved safety seat and it has been properly installed as per the makers specifications.

The problem is the bumps, curves and armrests that each individual car manufacturer designs into the door to provide passenger comfort.   The positioning of the armrest can increase the likelihood of a child in a safety seat suffering a head injury in a crash by as much as 52 per cent.  That armrest is designed for the comfort of adult passengers and car design advances has luxury as a selling aid as brand competition becomes more intense.

In particular, the damage to a child in a car seat is enhanced by such protrusions when the accident takes the form of a high speed side impact.  When crash testing was first introduced the contour of the rear door of cars was usually flat and the  crash results mirrored that situation.   It was only the higher priced models that tended to have rear arm rests, but now that is universal in even the base product cars.

Even the positioning of that armrest can vary the danger.  A mid height armrest was found to be the most problematic but basically any protrusion on an otherwise flat door can impact into the child occupants space and cause a head injury.  The danger increases proportionally when the impact is by way of a side-on collision.

It seems that rear door configuration is another variable parents need to take into consideration when they decide to have children.  Harm reduction may become a selling point now this problem has entered the publicity cycle and future models may be configured accordingly.

Fortunately, rear armrests are relatively easy to remove by unscrewing the restraint and they can be put aside until the child has grown or the car is being replaced..  Just one more item to be ticked off for those who take child safety in cars seriously.

When the Cold War turns " Hot " !

Much of the turmoil in the Middle East is fuelled by the animosity between America and Iran which has never subsided since the Iranian revolutionaries seized the American embassy in Teheran and held its diplomatic hostages prisoner for 444 days as a snub to American might.

Iran is a religious regime that is out of step with the rest of the Middle East.  It regards America as the " Great Satan " and because of its oil wealth it has the funds to bankroll what the world sees as terrorist revolutionaries across a wide swathe of territories.  In particular, it is the main sponsor of the battles raging in Yemen.

Iran was well on the way to developing its own atomic bomb when the western powers struck a deal that reduced the sanctions that were crippling the Iranian economy in exchange for guarantees backed by on site inspections that work on nuclear development would cease. That deal came into force during the presidency of Barak Obama, and when Donald Trump became his successor he withdrew American support, despite all the other signatories reporting that Iran was sticking faithfully to its obligations.

Iran is now free to go nuclear and has restarted refining uranium in centrifuges that produce bomb grade base material.  Despite the reimposition of sanctions it is the work of its undercover columns that are feeding arms and motivating anti American action in Syria and Iraq.   The head of this Quda force is legendary general Qassem Soleimani.  He is revered within Iran as a master tactician who has expertise in directing the attacks against American military power in the eastern world.

Qassem Soleimani is now dead.  He flew into Baghdad airport and as he stepped into a waiting car with Iraqi army compatriots an American Reaper drone fired missiles which the world sees as an assassination.  America openly and in full view of the world launched a deliberate attack to kill the most senior commander of forces within a country with which it is not at war.  The US admits that this strike was personally ordered by Donald Trump.

The big question is - where do we go from here ?  Teheran has threatened revenge and this could take the form of the killing or kidnapping of important American figures abroad.  It is also likely to spur the Iranian ambition to possess a nuclear weapon and perhaps induce them to beg, borrow or steal whatever they need to achieve that objective.

North Korea is an obvious supply source.  Its unpredictable leader has a battered economy that would be enhanced by a cash injection and that is possible from Iran's oil wealth.   The idea of Iran armed with a nuclear weapon is far from ideal.   It is run by religious zealots and when religious motivation becomes the mainstay, logic does not necessarily apply.

That assassination just upped the ante.  The world has become a more dangerous place !

A Traffic Emergency !

The fire emergency which caused holidaymakers to climb into their cars and leave the south coast highlighted the poor condition of the Princes highway which serves the region between Wollongong and the Victorian border.  For much of its length it is simply one lane of traffic each way.

A twin divided road system is pushing south from Wollongong and the notorious bottleneck of Albion Park is months away from a by-pass completion but the further you drive south you find that little has changed, and that is the area where the people of New South Wales congregate for their summer holidays.

The death and destruction  created up and down the coast brought an evacuation order because of a repeat scenario expected today when a new heat front is due to arrive.  The television news showed an almost unending line of cars creeping at snail like pace up this escape route.  Taking to the road is the only option because the rail line ends at Nowra.

The other escape limitation is the fuel supply.  The towns and villages of the south coast cope well when the population surges in summer but the demand for fuel during this evacuation was overwhelming.  Long lines of cars queued at every selling point and it was quickly evident that stocks on hand were being exhausted.   Drivers were confronted with " out of service " tags on many pump hoses.

The politicians seem reluctant to blame this fire crisis on global warming but we haver been breaking heat records year after year and the forests are tinder dry because of the drought.  There is the expectation that the bushfire season will enlarge to an all year basis and there is no doubt that this fire season was not only out of control, but it brought fire right onto our doorsteps.  Even water bombers and the valiant efforts of the RFS volunteers could not bring it under control.

We appear to be on a cusp of replacing oil based fuels with electric cars and it should be noted that much of the fire area is without electric power and restoration is probably days away.  That is a sobering thought if fire emergencies are to become a regular event in our future.   One of the first casualties in a forest fire is the electricity supply and without that such an exodus would not be possible in the electric car age.

It is obvious that the Princes Highway needs a higher priority on the road renewal plan because it is the main way of access and exit from the entire coastal strip to the Victorian border.  The volume of traffic is far in excess of the safe loading of just a single lane each way and it is totally inadequate in any sort of emergency.

In this interim many motorists may become more prudent and cease simply buying car fuel when it runs low.  It would restore confidence to know that the tank was full and able to handle the run home at all times.  Such a precaution is becoming a necessity in this bushfire age !

Music Festival " Harm " Approach !

The 2020 new year got underway with a music festival in the Domain and for the first time an idea suggested by the Deputy State Coroner was available to allow patrons to dispose of illegal drugs under an amnesty system.  This amnesty tent was situated well away from the entrance, where police were saturating their main drug enforcement effort and consisted of bins in which patrons could drop their drugs without fear of being arrested or even questioned.  This facility was staffed by members of the NSW Health department.

Apart from this, little has changed.  There was a large and threatening police presence through which patrons must pass to enter the venue and sniffer dogs still monitor the crowd.  Entrants who draw suspicion because of a dog showing interest are escorted to a police tent for questioning and strip searches are still being conducted, but with a higher degree of privacy.

By 5 pm the police had charged twenty-seven people with possessing a prohibited drug and had arrested a supplier caught with 3.4 gams of MDMA secreted in his underwear.  The unknown factor is the amount of drugs consumed at this festival which was attended by an estimated thirty thousand people. It is encouraging that the festival ended without a drug death.

It is reported that a French citizen visiting Australia attracted the attention of a sniffer dog and this resulted in an order for a strip search.  He refused to remove his underwear on modesty grounds which might have brought an arrest law requirement that such arrests can not be made unless a charge is processed into question.  Previously, police simply released such arrested people without charge if the strip search failed to discover drugs.

This confrontation ended amicably.  The strip search did not proceed when the subject admitted having two MDMA tablets.  He received a four hundred dollar fine, but no conviction was recorded. It is evident that the police are very carefully obeying the law when it applies to under age children being searched without the presence of a parent or guardian and generally applying that strip search option with a high degree of integrity.  Any charge levelled against a police officer could be detrimental to career advancement and they approach strip searches with trepidation.

What remains unresolved is the fear factor of seeing those police and their dogs posing the threat of a strip search.  That is enough to make some patrons who intend to ration their drugs over the length of the festival to panic and take the lot.  That can be fatal when the drugs involved are from incompetent dug cooks and their strength is unknown.

The drug testing option is still rejected and critics are correct is maintaining that it can not ensure that whatever is tested is safe, but it could remove the most obviously deadly combinations on the market and that is a vast improvement on the conditions that exist today.

The one inescapable fact about drug testing is that it does reduce the potential harm.

Movie Censorship !

Many parents rely on the suitability rating imposed on movie releases to screen unsuitable images from their children.  That was an excellent screening process in the days when the only place a movie could be seen was in a movie theatre.  Since then they have progressed to television screens and in todays world the streaming phenomenon makes them instantly available on computers, tablets and smart phones.

An R-Rated classification is imposed on films with an excess of violence or sex scenes too explicit for young eyes.  It is quite evident that this form of censorship is failing because the digital age has circumvented parental control out of parent's hands.  From a very young age the average kid now has his or her own personal mobile phone.

The older generation may remember the furore back in 1997 when a film titled " Lolita " became a box office sensation.  Judged " mediocre " by many, it starred Jeremy Irons and a young Dominique  Swain in a romance that many saw as simply paedophilia. Church and moral persuaders applied pressure for the government to impose a ban and prevent its release in this country.

It was hotly debated in Federal parliament and a government then headed by John Howard eventually decided not to intervene in the R-Rating imposed by the Office of Film and Literature classification and it would not be banned.  It ended up being screened in a small number of art house cinemas in Australian cities but never made it to a general release.

Since then a wide division has emerged in the film genre emanating from America and Europe.  Despite America having a vast pornographic film industry the main studios avoid full front nudity and subject matter that might attract an adverse childrens rating.  In contrast, films from continental Europe seem to go out of their way to draw such censure. The rating applied to a film is usually individual to the country in which it will be shown.

All that applies to films to be shown in cinemas and on television.  The Internet is a media form  reached by any digital device in the hands of people of any age.  It is completely uncensored and matter that would be classed as pornographic attracts a vast and enthusiastic audience.  In particular, a site called " Porn Hub " presents sex in all its graphic detail.  It seeks to attract customers to " pay to view " productions, but many " teaser " fare is offered free to gain viewer interest.

In todays world the young quickly gain a grasp of digital electronics that is far beyond the scope reached by their parents.  Their navigation of the Internet begins at almost pre-school age and a world of pornography awaits them.  Parents who think a talk that concerns the " birds and the bees " will be the commencement of a sex education might be surprised to know what their children have been watching.

The New " Boat People " !

It took the drastic measure of permanently transferring asylum seekers arriving on our shores in rickety boats to what some describe as Australian " concentration camps " in other countries to stem the flow of people risking death at sea in a desperate bid to gain a new home in this country.

That measure has been very successful.  A refugee boat arriving in our waters is now rare, but it comes with a great many people trapped in these offshore gulags for years because they will only find a home if another country accepts them.  The legislation asserts they will never be assimilated into Australia and it is that promise that has forced the people smugglers who were bringing them here out of business.

That law only applies to people arriving by boat and we are now facing a new inflow who arrive by plane and apply for a protection visa the moment they set foot on our soil.  Australia is a major tourist destination and it is obvious that some amongst those gaining an entry visa as a tourist see this as a new way to avoid the law that stops boat people.

An average of seventy-seven people a day claimed protection visas after landing at an Australian airport in November and this represents an inflow of more than 100,000 since the coalition gained power five years ago.  The nationality figures are illuminating.  Twenty-seven percent came from Malaysia, seventeen percent from China,  fourteen percent from India , five percent from Thailand and four percent from Vietnam.

All of these countries are heavily represented in the legitimate flow of tourists into Australia and most generally leave without incident.  Tourism is an important part of the Australian economy and simply placing obstacles in the way of granting tourist visas to these countries would harm the industries that employ many Australians.

One of the problems is that once a protection visa is issued that person  has the same workplace rights as Australian citizens while they await a decision.  Evidence is emerging that some are being exploited because of their lack of knowledge of Australian law and may be subjected to what is virtual slavery in relation to the pay earned.

Fortunately, the lodging of protection visa applications is a declining trend.   The number of people claiming refugee status declined to 24,520 this year from 27,884 in the previous year and only 0.23 percent of the temporary visas issued  over the previous five years led to protection visa status.

It is quite evident that there is a gap in our immigrant selection process.  Our defensive measures successfully stopped boat arrivals but that same law does not apply to people arriving by plane. Letting the law take its course involves both the time to reach a decision and the inevitable appeals that will follow allowing the intended migrant to settle into the way of life of this country.

The obvious answer is a speedy resolution of status and a prompt removal to follow rejection. Like boat arrivals, this new trend will clearly fade away once the tactic is seen to be unsuccessful.