Sunday 1 April 2012

A new Falklands war ?

Our troubled world is already facing the prospect of civil war in the Middle East as the " Arab Spring "  churns restless nations to depose dictators, and now there are fresh rumblings from Argentina over what they term the Malvinas islands.

Britain calls them the Falklands and they had a chequered history, dating back to a time when the Europeans held the belief that their explorers had every right to discover new lands, plant a flag on the beach - and claim each new discovery for their own country.

These remote islands were claimed and settled by Spain, France and Argentina at various times, before the British included them in the British Empire in 1833.

Argentina launched a surprise attack and invaded in April, 1982 and a short, sharp war followed, with Britain becoming the victor.  Now Argentina is again making angry noises and claiming that that these islands must revert to Argentinian sovereignty.

It seems that there are two main reasons for stoking the fires of war.  The Argentine economy is in deep trouble because the GFC of 2008 has sent unemployment to critical levels - and now there is the prospect that there may be a vast oil field under the sea surrounding these islands.

Argentine president Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner needs a distraction to draw public attention away from the economic crisis - and she has reverted to nationalism.   The public is being goaded to march in the streets and the latent cause of reclaiming the Malvinas has seen Falkland ships denied access to Argentinian ports and air services to the islands being cut.

All this would probably subside if the Argentine economy improved - and  if the exploratory wells being drilled around the islands failed to find oil, but there is also the danger that once provoked - nationalism can get out of hand.   It can not be turned on and off like a tap.

Fortunately, a shooting war is unlikely.   The last invasion was probably more a result of British incompetence in having a garrison of only about a dozen men and withdrawing it's only naval ship stationed in the Falklands.    The islands now boast a more substantial defence presence.

The big problem would arise if there was a big oil strike that saw the surrounding sea area develop in a similar manner to the North sea oil fields of Europe.   There would be claims that the islands were part of the Argentinian land mass and that could develop into the friction that existed between Australia and East Timor when oil was discovered between those two countries.

Unfortunately, since the 08 GFC every country in the world is having money problems.   The issue of the Falklands/Malvinas will remain an irritant between Argentina and Britain - but probably remain fairly dormant - as long as an oil strike does not catapult it into a new financial " El Dorado ".

If that happens - all bets are off !

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