Happy New Year.

Tonight we say goodbye to two thousand and seventeen - and welcome in a brand new year. That is something we celebrate with fireworks and in Sydney more than a million people will seek vantage points around the harbour to see an extravaganza of fire in the sky.

A new year is usually a time for making resolutions but this time the main feeling seems to be one of "hope " !  Most hope that they and their family will be safe from the lone wolf terror attacks that are sweeping the world and as they make their way to the fireworks they will see many more armed police amongst the crowds and see evidence of bollards and parked heavy vehicles placed to thwart cars being used as a weapon.

Many have misgivings about our economy.  Worries about the return of recession have not entirely evaporated and wages have ben stagnant for some time.  There is a fear in many minds that artificial intelligence is creeping closer and may rob them of their job.  Young people are finding it hard to plan a career and a basic education no longer ensures even a living wage.

Many now despair that they will ever own their own home.  That old dream of a three bedroom home on a quarter acre block has morphed into a two bedroom unit in a city tower somewhere - and that is only for the lucky ones who are earning enough to pay the mortgage.  There is a huge waiting list for public housing and we have a growing homeless problem.

Few seem happy with the politicians from either side of politics.  Endless bickering and point scoring has replaced census and cooperation to actually make the economy run smoothly.  Australia is a lesser power in an angry world and the major players are playing dangerous games of brinkmanship while armed with nuclear weapons.  There is a distinct chance that we may enter a new arms race with nuclear weapons having a wider distribution.  Old alliances are breaking down and new ones forming.

Despite all this gloom and doom Australia is still the best place in the world to live and we have a constant stream of hopefuls beating at our door and seeking entry.  On any sunny day our beaches are packed and we are a sporting nation that treats our sporting heros with love and devotion.  We are not intimidated by this threatening world and that old axiom of  " she'll be right, Mate "  applies.

Tonight - Australia will just celebrate in the usual Australian way.  Many will drink too much alcohol.   Many will not bother to barge through the inevitable traffic crush and will sleep on a beach or in a park.   A few will get arrested and spend the night in a police cell.  Sadly, many will drive a car when they shouldn't - and risk disaster to themselves and others.

Two thousand and eighteen is a year we will bend to our own desires and accomplishments.  We will deal with the good and the bad as they come along, as has been the Australian way through wars and recessions, drought and bushfires, cyclones and tidal waves.   When midnight comes around we will  wish one another - a Happy New Year !

An Opportunity Waiting !

We have come a long way from the days when everything went into the garbage can and the Garbo's took it to the tip on their weekly cycle.  Recycling is big business and today every household is encouraged to separate paper, cardboard and the various metals and plastics that can be melted down or otherwise treated to live again in a new form.

Recycling saves our natural resources.   Without recycling more trees would be harvested to produce paper and cardboard and more oil would be needed to extract the plastic that serves all the liquids sold in bottles.  This recycling industry is a big employer of labour and we have just added a surcharge to the price of most drinks to stimulate the return of glass and plastic bottles by way of " bottle banks " .

This giant industry has had a ready market for our compacted recycled material in China.  But is seems that China has developed its own recycling industries and from the new year they will not accept certain plastics and mixed paper waste.  They will only take cardboard less than 0.5 percent contaminated with other materials.

That will present our recycling industry with a dilemma.  Local laws prevent this material from being stockpiled because of its flammable nature.  It seems that the surplus will probably go to landfills because transporting it by truck to other states is more expensive than putting it in containers for shipment to China.

Much of this recycled cardboard is processed here in New South Wales by Visy but the loss of the China market will produce a glut beyond their capacity to handle.  We may see the collapse of the numerous small firms and charities who process this waste stream if their  market ceases to exist. Without an outlet for this waste the only option seems to be a return to landfills.

China's decision to ban imports actually delivers an opportunity here.  The product gained from recycling is much cheaper than that derived from new base materials and we already have in place the facility for collecting and collating the various materials that are suitable for reprocessing.  This delivers an investment opportunity to turn recycled waste into new products for both the home and export markets.

Once this material is in graded and compacted form it is suitable for mechanised processing and that is the industry which we lack.  This is an opportunity knocking on our door to create a state of the art industry to convert our waste - and probably process waste from other countries - to develop recycled products with a price advantage over new materials.

It presents an opportunity for our nascent robotics industry to automate this process to gain an overwhelming price advantage over new materials.  The scarcity and cost of most new materials makes recycling and reproduction a fast coming essential.

This China decision could be just the stimulus we need to make the investments necessary to create in Australia what China has been doing with our waste.  It opens the door for a whole new industry !

Politics - and Employment !

One thing is abundantly certain - the Labor party is woefully ignorant of how small business works. It wants to pass a law to make casual employees automatically become permanent  staff once they complete six months continuous work with the same employer.  The Australian Council of Trade Unions has announced that it will enthusiastically  campaign on this basis.

In a utopian society, everyone would be a permanent employee with automatic access to benefits such as sick leave, annual holidays on full pay and even long service leave.  They would therefore have a predictable pay packet coming in each week which would underpin gaining a home mortgage and other forms of financial stability.   Unfortunately, in many businesses the employee need is sporadic, only exists on certain days of the week - and is at peak for only a short period each day.

Industries where the work load is constant and spread evenly over the working day tend to employ permanent staff because they can be productively engaged providing the services their employer needs.  This continuity is lacking in hospitality, retail and health care.

The need for casuals to fill the gaps is illustrated by the rate paid for each hour of work.  When the salary of a permanent employee is broken down into an hourly rate, the casual receives more per hour to compensate for the benefits he or she does not receive.  At present, those rates are increased if the hours worked are on a Saturday or Sunday, or outside the usual business day.

Traditionally, small business fills these peak load gaps with casual staff.  Often, this is a mix of permanent and casual.  A restaurant may service its needs with one permanent employee and supplement that busy twelve noon to two pm lunch break with several casuals.  It would be unprofitable to employ all those people as permanent staff for a full days work.

This proposal seems to reek of ambush tactics.  An unwary employer keeping the same casuals for more than six months suddenly finds they automatically gain permanent staff status.  It is more likely to increase the casual staff turnover as canny employers spread the work over a wider employee pool to ensure that nobody reaches that permanency threshold.

The real problem in the casual employment world - is under employment.  Most casuals would like more hours but by the nature of this form of employment that usually means having more than one job in work segments with a different need time scale.  Obviously, individual casuals bring different work skills and need training to meet their employers needs, but this work flexibility is the main way service demand can be met at an economical cost.

There is another reason many employers prefer casuals to permanent staff.    In the event of a business downturn,  shedding permanent staff can be costly.  Termination may be challenged in court and the courts often make very strange determinations.  It is not unusual for such employees to gain a reversal or a settlement that is not justified by the economic conditions prevailing.  Many employers avoid that risk by sticking with casuals.

This proposal seems to be more a meeting of political doctrine than an attempt to reform employment policy.  It seeks to create populist undertones more than create jobs that are financially sustainable. It is unlikely that this proposal will proceed beyond parliamentary debate !

Road Safety !

Nineteen people died a horrible death on New South Wales roads in the first eleven days of this holiday season, and with five more days to go it seems certain that we will exceed the same period last year.  These deaths have pushed the state's road toll this year to 380, about the same as the 2016 figure, but 30 more deaths than in 2015.

There is no common factor.  The range of people were from all walks of life - and both genders.  Some were the drivers of vehicles and others were passengers, and some were pedestrians who managed to get hit crossing busy roads.  Sadly, many children are among the deceased.  The joy of Christmas is muted for many families.

Unfortunately, death in a road accident is becoming a statistic that far out ranks the other causes of death for most healthy citizens who otherwise have the expectation of living to a ripe old age.  The reason we crash our cars is no mystery.   Every fatality is carefully investigated by the police scientific squad and those findings make sad reading.   Speeding - driving tired - and inattention head the list and at least one of these has a factor of not bothering to use a seat belt or using a mobile phone as contributing to the accident.

What more can we do to make our roads safer ?  There seems no credible answer to that question.  Every holiday weekend we double demerit points and saturate the roads with police.  Speeding fines are handed out and we detect many driving with an illegal blood/alcohol count or who are affected by drugs.   Without that effort, the deaths would probably be higher.

We are placing our hopes on the future of self driving cars but it is inevitable that when they become legal for a long time they will share the roads with todays conventional car fleet.   The government will be tempted to tax conventional cars out of existence but sheer economics will make the change to self driving a protracted affair.  The family who have invested in a conventional car will expect to get an economic use of that vehicle before changing to the new system.

Perhaps the only saving grace to our road toll is the number of people who now crash - and survive. The modern car is safer - and cheaper.  Even the basic models now come with safety features like multiple air bags and crumple zones to allow the car to absorb the energy of a crash,.  The Australian car fleet has never been less composed of older cars and as a result the option of buying second hand is diminishing in favour of new vehicles.

Improvement to the road system certainly increases safety. Multiple lane divided roads reduce the number and severity of crashes, but they are horrendously expensive and many country districts are serviced by roads with a single lane each way - contributing to the biggest cause of fatalities - head on crashes.

It seems that the age of the motor car brings with it the personal mobility we now take for granted. Our society could not have developed in the way it has - without that form of transport., but the power of the modern car and the sheer numbers competing for space on our roads means that conflict is inevitable.

We can not hope to eliminate the road toll until a form of artificial intelligence replaces humans in guiding cars to their destination.  Fortunately, that is now becoming a reality !

Compulsory Voting !

Australia is one of the few countries in the world that insists that its citizens record a vote at elections or face a fine for not discharging that duty.   The founding fathers evidently thought that  choosing the people who make the laws we are obliged to obey was a civic duty required of every citizen on or above the age of maturity.

A long time ago, the age of maturity was deemed to be twenty-one.  That was also the age that drinking alcohol became legal and when the Vietnam war required young Australian men to face a lottery at age eighteen and be handed a rifle and sent to war, but not permitted to either vote or have a beer - that age of maturity was seriously questioned.   It was then lowered to eighteen.

Compulsory voting applies to all levels of public office.   We are required to front the voting booths to choose the person who will represent us in the Federal parliament in Canberra and again when we choose the composition of the parliament for the state or territory in which we live.  We go to the polls once again to select the members of the town or city council which will govern civic affairs.

Those who fail to vote or at least have their presence marked off on voting day will eventually receive a fine notice in the mail.  This  " Apparent failure to vote " notice requires them to either pay a $ 55 fine or supply a valid excuse - or challenge the fine in court.   It seems that this failure to vote was prevalent at the recent round of council elections.

This was at a time of many council mergers and it is a common claim that some voters were confused by the extended jurisdiction and did not realise that it now included their responsibility.  400,000 failure to vote notices were sent out after the 2017 council elections, netting the NSW Electoral Commission  $ 3.7 million in fines.

Valid excuses for failing to vote include medical illness, absence out of the area or a range of reasons that may be accepted by the Electoral Commission.  Many people simply mail in their $55 cheque and accept the fine.

Countries where voting is not compulsory find that a host of matters influence the turnout.  The weather may induce many people to stay at home and whether the issues interest voters has a big influenced on voting patterns.  In some instances as few as fifty percent of those eligible to vote bother casting a ballot.  Such elections do not deliver the true will of the people.

One of the justifications of this compulsory vote in Australia is the claim that the voters receive the government they deserve - because whoever is elected achieves office by universal franchise.  In other countries, issues of critical importance are often decided by a mere fraction of the numbers who are eligible to vote.   That Brexit vote in Britain falls into that category.

Much as we complain about compulsory voting, this quick and easy procedure on voting day does justify the choice of who governs this country.  We pride ourselves that our voting system delivers a result free of ballot box stuffing and the vote rigging prevalent in other parts of the world.

Optional voting is the law in the United States, and perhaps that explains the election of Donald Trump !

The " Integration " Issue !

What a strange place Australia must seem to newly arrived migrants from an entirely different culture.  The frenetic shopping surge and the custom of giving gifts and celebrating Christmas with a meal that seems a food extravaganza would seem bewildering to those experiencing it for the first time, and this enormous man with a red suit and a flowing white beard.   Do people really believe that he comes from the North Pole - and enters homes by way of the chimney ?

Then there is the day that follows Christmas which we call " Boxing Day " !   It seems we are still celebrating the putting down of an uprising in China that occurred between 1899 and 1901 during the Qing dynasty.  It seems that the Chinese began to resist the trading concessions forced on the country by foreign powers and rose against the embassies in the capital  There were pitched battles and many lives lost before relief forces saved the day- and we are still celebrating over a century later.

Perhaps the reason America, Canada, Australia and New Zealand have been successful in integrating migrants from all over the world is the distance separating them from their old cultures.  This form of integration was not practised in Europe and consequently it was a great source of friction in that continents many wars.

Religious upheavals and pogroms forced many families to relocate but often a distance of a hundred miles saw them in a different country.  Even a dozen generations later, they still  retained their original nationality, spoke that language at home and observed their old country's national holidays.
This was particularly evident at the start of the second world war. Most surrounding countries had vast numbers of Germans as residents and their allegiance was to Germany rather than their host country.  They supported and assisted the German invasion, and when the war ended they paid a heavy price for what their hosts deemed treachery.

New arrivals in what some termed " the new world " were glad to shed these old prejudices. Their children were quick to learn a new language and accept new customs - and by the next generation they were fully integrated. Their input expanded the pot-pourri of dishes and tastes that became the national menu and the receiving nations became richer for what they brought to our gene pool.

Now the migrant source has changed and we are receiving input from the Middle East and Africa. It will not be helpful if we turn our back on these people and make them unwelcome.  They will struggle with a new language and it is very important that their children find a place in our culture. The schools will play a big part in integrating the new arrivals because they will be the intermediaries that will resolve the language problems with their parents, as it was with the original European migrant wave - and later from Asia.

It simply takes time for the customs of another religion to integrate with the religion they bring to this country and for curious customs like Boxing Day to enter their understanding.  That is a process that has been taking place for a very long time and it has delivered the Australia that has an established  culture in the world of today.

Drink Driving a " Misdemeanour " !

A law change is Victoria has the result that first offender low range drink drivers no longer face court and automatically get an on-the-spot fine and the loss of ten demerit points.   The penalty for this driving offence varies over the amount of alcohol detected but in the eyes of many people this move simply reduces the severity of drink driving from a " crime " to a " misdemeanour" !   In the interest of law uniformity, New South Wales is pondering adopting this same system.

The penalty range in Victoria is illustrative.  Learners and probationary drivers are disqualified for six months and need to have an alcohol interlock installed in their car for a minimum of six months. The mere presence of any alcohol will result in this penalty.

Drivers aged over 26 who register a blood alcohol limit between 0.05 and 0.07 will only received an on-the-spot fine and the loss of ten demerit points.  That will be an automatic penalty which will not involve an appearance in court.

Drivers who blow between 0.07 and 0.10 are disqualified on-the-spot for six months and have to have an alcohol interlock fitted.  Those who register over 0.10 are dealt with by a magistrate.

The claimed benefit of this law change is uncluttered courts, but in most cases it also removes the stigma of this offence being reported in the media.   Public opinion has changed drastically over the years. Drink driving is now a social crime that finds public disfavour.  Offenders are named and shamed and this in itself is a powerful deterrent.

Young men and young women will feel aggrieved that an age limit of 26 applies to those who slip slightly over that 0.05 limit and they will be treated differently.   They will not benefit from this " first offender " relief and any imposition of demerit points is likely to have a cumulative effect on license loss.

This law change will accelerate the imposition of alcohol interlocks.  This device requires drivers to blow and record the lack of alcohol being present to allow the car to start, but is involved a cost of about two thousand dollars. The degree of cost imposition depends heavily on the wealth and status of the offender.

One of the effects on this law change is likely to be an increase in the number of people driving unlicensed.  For many, the car is a necessity to get the kids to school or to get to a job that is almost impossible by public transport.  The penalty for repeated unlicensed driving is usually a jail term and unlicensed drivers also deliver an insurance hazard for any property they damage.

Whenever we stray from the usual practice of penalties being decided by magistrates or judges we enter the field of " unintended consequences ".  There is no excuse for drink driving, but the job of a judge is to make the penalty fit the crime and sometimes that involves extenuating circumstances.

The day drink driving moves from having a police officer make an arrest, take the culprit in handcuffs to a charge room and from there make a court appearance before a magistrate to simply applying the same fine procedure that is applicable to overstaying a parking meter, the severity of the crime will diminish in the public mind.

Logic dictates that the crime is greater the more alcohol is revealed in the test but if the aim is to have drivers below 0.05 this will not be achieved by lowering the penalties.

Our Air Operation Ends !

Islamic  State has been vanquished in Iraq and no longer holds any territory to house its proclaimed "Caliphate ".  It has been reduced to a shadowy movement which still controls adherents scattered throughout the world and who are capable of delivering terror attacks similar to the car driven into pedestrians this week in Melbourne.

That is still unclear.  The man behind the wheel was a former Afghan refugee who suffers both mental illness and is drug addicted.  There is no clear link to Islamic State although his comments to police rambled on about Allah and oppressed Muslims.  Fortunately, the impact failed to kill and it is likely that all the victims may fully recover.

The Australian involvement in this Middle East war has been limited to about eight hundred drawn from our armed services.  " Special Forces " personnel have advised and trained the Iraqi army and the six air force F-18-18A Hornet fighter aircraft have required a force of three hundred to service the aircraft and prepare them for missions during the three years they have served in this theatre of war.

Islamic State learned to fear the attack capability of these aircraft.  The use of precision munitions meant they could take out a specific target and during their involvement they were in the air for 35,753 hours, delivering 2400 bombs on 2750 bombing runs.   They were supported by a tanker aircraft to deliver in-flight refuelling and a " Wedge tail " surveillance aircraft to locate and identify specific targets.

This was the epitome of modern warfare.  We are a small nation on the world military scene and it is important that we maintain the right technology to defend a continent with a small population. In particular, we rely on both our navy and air force to project power to cover our vast coastline and detect any aggressor moving into this southern hemisphere.

Modern military aircraft are expensive and this involvement in the Middle East delivered a lesson. These militants were able to quickly conquer a large swathe of territory, but the use of a small number of advanced aircraft inflicted unsustainable losses and tipped the balance of power.  The actual combat involved brought the Australian air force to a higher readiness degree than the normal training exercises could possibly deliver.

This reliance on " lone wolf " civilian attacks seems a desperate measure by Islamic State.  Their world is shrinking and they have been defeated on key battlegrounds.  Terror on the streets of our cities may be the price we have to pay in exchange for a more peaceful world in the traditional trouble spots.  We need to develop new skills to make street attacks more difficult.

Justice Denied !

On July 15 a news report was so unusual that it got a mention on most world news agencies.  It seems that an Australian woman,  forty year old Justine Damond heard suspicious sounds coming from a lane behind her Minneapolis home.  She thought it sounded like someone being raped - so she called the police.

A Minneapolis police car with two officers attended and dressed in pyjamas - Justice approached the car to speak to the officers.   Without warning or any sort of provocation, the office in the passenger seat leaned across the driver and fired his weapon, killing Justine.

More than five months later the investigation of this incident is inconclusive.  The officer who fired the fatal shot - Mohamed Noor - has refused to be interviewed and has claimed his Fifth Amendment rights.  The matter has not been aired in court and the public prosecutor complains that the " investigation has not been done to his satisfaction or even to the expected levels of accuracy and thoroughness. "

This seems to be a very familiar theme when police shoot an unarmed person in America.  It has sparked the " Black lives matter " movement protesting the high incidence of coloured people who meet their death from a police bullet   There is a certain taint about the way these matters are investigated and in the majority of cases the police are acquitted even though the evidence would seem overwhelming.

The American street scene is very different from most other cities in the western world. There is the expectation that people stopped may be carrying a gun and for their own safety police search them for weapons.  They are quick to force people onto the ground and apply handcuffs.  This is aggressive policing and police now carry assault weapons in their police cars.   A car that fails to stop on command may draw pursuit by a dozen police cars.

The American police are fast becoming a similar force to the American military and carry identical weapons.  The government is mindful of the riots a few decades ago sparked by the Rodney King beating - and the police acquittal.  All that stands between a repeat of that mass destruction that went on for days is a thin police line.   The American government is frightened of its own citizens and needs to appease the police to guarantee their loyalty.

The power of the police unions is paramount.  They protect their members by using their raw power to stifle investigations and move court cases to jurisdictions where acquittals can be expected.  When it is police investigating police the outcome is obvious.  Acquittals by whatever means need to be contrived.

Justine Damond's parents are grieving because this case is going nowhere.  A white Australian woman called the policer in an act of mercy and was killed without reason.   It seems unlikely that the cop who fired that bullet will ever seen the inside of a court.

The American justice system will see the case drag on endlessly until evidence becomes lost and memories become vague.   Eventually, it will gather dust in a Minnesota filing cabinet.   It makes a joke of that cherished American claim to be " the land of the free "  !

The " Snowy 2.0 " Power scheme.

The big question facing people living on the east coast of Australia is whether we will have enough electricity to prevent rolling blackouts in the peak heat days of this summer.  When the temperature soars our existing generating capacity is dangerously close to the point where load shedding is inevitable.

One of the solutions suggested involves expanding the existing Snowy river hydro electric power scheme which was constructed after the end of the second world war.  This is termed " Snowy 2.0 " and has a tentative cost of two billion dollars, but the cost has climbed to three billion and that does not include another two billion to upgrade transmission lines to both Melbourne and Sydney.

The original Snowy river scheme was a gigantic enterprise to turn a mountain river from flowing to the sea - to flowing inland by way of a number of lakes at lower levels.  As it flowed to each lower level is turned electricity generating turbines and this water created the famed Murrumbidgee Irrigation Area ( MIA ) which turned marginal grazing land into Australia's breadbasket.

The scheme took decades to complete, provided work for thousands of migrants and created huge tunnels through the mountains and a number of new lakes.  Last year it made a $ 310 million profit and ownership is vested at 58% by New South Wales, 29 % by Victoria and 13 % by the Commonwealth.

If Snowy 2.0 gets the go-ahead, the public needs to know exactly what is involved, and this new plan is described as " Pumped Hydro ".  It works like a giant battery where the same water can be used over and over again to generate electricity.   It would require a twenty-six kilometre tunnel to connect Tantangara reservoir with Talbingo reservoir and during low power demand this excess power would pump water back from the lower reservoir to the higher one to enable need to be met when demand is highest.  It would deliver a fifty percent increase on the present Snowy capacity and deliver enough power to serve hundreds of thousands of homes and businesses.

The snag is that even if we started work right now, it will be six years before the first kilowatt of electricity begins to serve our needs. It is envisaged that the plan would generate about five thousand direct and indirect jobs and wrap up in about 2024.   It would fulfil our future needs rather than resolve the immediate problem.

Provided costs can be contained, this should deliver the right mix of hydro, wind and solar to help meet our carbon dioxide lowering commitments.  The only unanswered question is how do we keep the lights on during the coming hot days of this summer ?

" Inducement " Gambling.

Surprisingly, there are many people who only gamble by having a small bet on the Melbourne cup each year or perhaps just being social by buying a ticket in the sweep at their workplace.  Some of the churches still preach that all forms of gambling are evil but we Australians are a wagering nation and it is said that we would bet on two flies crawling up a wall.

There was great contention many years ago when the state proposed holding a national lottery.  The fact that the profits would fund a good cause overcame many objections and the point of sale was awarded to newsagents.   This was not instant gratification.   The punter invested money by buying a ticket and that ticket had a number.  Days later all the numbers of the tickets sold were put in a barrel and the " draw " took place.   If your number was drawn, you received the major prize.

Lotto was simply a rendition of that same game, except that the punter chose six numbers of their choice and hoped that those identical numbers would be drawn from a barrel.  Lesser prizes were attributed to less than those six winning numbers that scooped the jackpot.

Both the lottery and Lotto required the punter to consciously  go to where tickets are sold - or today sit at their computer and invest online - to gamble.  The urge to gamble entered the public realm when poker machines were installed in New South Wales clubs and spread to other states.  They were initially in sporting clubs, but that option was later claimed by pubs and casinos and today it is hard to find public entertainment that does not bring you face to face with a gaming machine.

Theoretically, poker machines return most of the money gambled to the player, but their tax has become an integral part of the state economy and they are now the mainstay of the entertainment industry.  We have more poker machines per head of population than anywhere else in the world., and they tend to be concentrated in low income, working class suburbs.

Addiction to poker machines has become both a source of crime and a reason for poverty and destitution in some households.  Many become mesmerised to play in expectation of the next big payout and the machine manufacturers have devised a strategy to make play more irresistible.  It is called " losses disguised as wins " .   The machine is programmed to deliver celebratory music and graphics when the player wins an amount that is less than what was gambled.

It seems that poker machines deliver a form of hysteria. Hearing and seeing the music and graphics that herald a win becomes the euphoria that keeps punters playing and machines with this strategy are programmed to avoid long non-paying gaps by increasing the ratio of pays that fall below the amount gambled.

Naturally, the entertainment industry favours this type of machine but the NSW parliament is considering imposing a ban because they see it as an unfair inducement to gamble.  All gambling has a risk factor, but proclaiming a win that is not happening oversteps a line.

The Curse of Religion !

Images from Rakhine state in Myanmar show burning villages and the bodies of massacred men, women and children.  This is just the latest clash of the twin evils that underpin the misery that envelopes humankind  -  religion and nationalism.

The " Rohingya " are Muslim and the rest of the population of Myanmar are Buddhist and it seems that even Buddhist monks are actively helping the Myanmar army to drive these tribal people over the border into Bangladesh.  A population of about a million people is being displaced.

The resentment goes back a long way to the days when Myanmar was called Burma and it was a part of the British Empire.   The British also ruled India, which has since split into India, Pakistan and Bangladesh and when labour was needed in Burma the Brits simply called in workers from over the border and allowed them to settle in new villages.   The fact that they were of a different religion was ignored.

The bible records the enmity between people who worshipped different Gods.  Most of the wars over the centuries have had religion as the cause of their conflict or the curse of nationalism which has one tribe thinking it is superior to its neighbour.   The reason for these wars was either to gain more home territory or to force their religion on others.

Sadly, so many of these armed conflicts have been based on internal divisions within the same religion.  For several centuries the wars in Europe were mainly between Catholicism trying to reimpose its domination on the Protestant reformation, and in todays world Islam is angrily split between Sunni and Shia.

Even recent history records the sheer savagery that religion or nationalism can produce.  We were horrified when images of the Holocaust appeared at the end of the second world war, but lessons were not learned and we have since seen the slaughter in Rwanda and places like Sudan, and all that paled into insignificance  with the religious wars happening in the Middle East.   Europe added its contribution with Kosovo  - and Srebrenica.

It seems that we are destined to follow different religions and those religions are incapable of reaching a form of settlement where they embrace each other with mutual respect and live together in harmony.  A split within Islam is actively pursuing terrorism with the intent of creating a world war between Islam and Christianity.

The whole purpose of religion was to prepare the soul for the afterlife.  Now that we have reached the capability of extinguishing all forms of life on this planet with the nuclear option, religion in all its forms seem a specious argument.

If we ever managed to find a common religion, no doubt war and insanity would find a new home in politics !

" Pop-Up " Prisons !

There is no doubt that New South Wales has an overcrowding problem in it's prison system.  We still have some jails that were built in the era of transportation and cells designed to contain a single prisoner are often used to house three inmates.  This state is engaged in a $ 3.8 billion construction boom to ease this prison crush.

Last week saw the opening of the Macquarie Correctional Centre at Wellington.   This is a very new concept which has earned the descriptive name of a " Pop-up "prison because it is both cheap and fast to build and engages a new idea on how prisoners should be housed.  That concept can be described as " communal living " !

This jail is tasked with holding four hundred prisoners and they will be accommodated in sixteen individual " pods ", each containing twenty-five prisoners.  There will be no individual cells and all will live in " cubicles " which lack doors and have walls just 1.5 metres high.

Each of these " living spaces " will contain a bed, storage for personal effects and a table and chair facing a television screen.  It is hoped that this concept will give rise to educational opportunities and expand the entertainment possibilities.  There will be a total lack of personal privacy but the shower facilities ensure that this facility be restricted to single person use.

It is the " supervision " aspect that gives cause to some concern.  These communal living pods will be surrounded by a mezzanine floor containing offices and walkways from which the prison officers can view the prisoners clustered below. At night the lights will probably be dimmed, but every prisoner will be under twenty-four hour surveillance.

It is intended that this prison will contain a mix of prisoner classifications and such a mix could deliver problems in establishing the " pecking order " which is inevitable where people congregate. Some prisoners are naturally aggressive and others will be withdrawing from drug use.  This cubicle system will certainly allow the type of intermingling that may lead to bullying.

We would do well to remember a similar event several decades ago at Long Bay prison in Sydney. " Katingal " was designed as an escape proof prison within a prison.  Every prisoner was contained within an individual cell in which the light was on twenty-four hours a day and constantly viewed by an assortment of hidden cameras.  It was found that after a short time in this environment many prisoners became permanently psychotic.   An enquiry dubbed it an " electronic zoo " and it was shut down - and erased by bulldozers.

This communal living experiment is a similar step into the unknown.  Some prisoners may hanker for the privacy of the long hours they are usually locked down in their cell in normal prison housing and others may find the eyes watching them from above intolerable.  Communal living relies heavily on an " average person " reaction, but the prison population is far from " average ".   Many prison officers with experience of how prisons work have reservations about this concept.

It seems that this Pop-Up concept is the way prisons will be configured into the future.  Wellington is now a reality and it will soon be followed by another at Cessnock.  One aspect that appeals to the government is the lower cost in comparison with conventional prisons.

Personal Accountability !

In 2008 the world had a recession.  One of the causes was the money market using the housing price boom to enrich profits.  Mortgages were approved at near the sale price of the home and often to buyers who clearly lacked the income to meet the monthly repayments.  Homes prices were escalating madly at almost daily intervals and it was reasoned that this was the safety factor.

Even worse, these mortgages were sliced and diced into packs that the industry called " Derivatives" and which the risk assessing agencies graded as " AAA " risk.   They were snapped up by the money market, superannuation funds and municipal councils looking for safe investments which would deliver a decent rate of interest over the long term.

When the boom burst there was financial chaos.  Home prices retreated.  Banks and other institutions deemed " too big to fail " were bailed out by the government.  Many people lost their homes - and their jobs.   Our grand children will be paying back the huge debts that arose from that fiasco.

So - Here we are on the cusp of a decade later - and what has changed ?   Those same tycoons are still running our banks and - almost unbelievably - those same credit assessment agencies that delivered doom to investors who trusted their judgement with those " AAA " ratings are still rating financial risks.  Wages and salaries still have a long way to go to catch up with pre-2008 levels.

What astonished many people was the total lack of accountability sheeted home to the very people who caused this recession.  It seems that nobody faced a court - and nobody did prison time as a result of their malfeasance.   The very same folk are still in their corner offices, directing the financial affairs of the institutions in which they serve.

Now we have a new scandal and it concerns the formidable Commonwealth Bank of Australia.  This bank has installed a new model ATM which is capable of accepting banknotes.  It seems that this has proved a bonanza for terrorist sympathizers who are raising money here and financing terrorist operations in other parts of the world.  Bank records show that millions of dollars have passed unchallenged through these ATM's without alerting the protocols that are supposed to prevent money laundering.

Even worse, after this broke newspaper headlines, nothing changed.   Weeks later these ATM's were still accepting drug money and passing it on to tax havens overseas.  Financial analysts are predicting that the CBA will face fines of over a billion dollars.

That is what infuriates many people. A billion dollar fine simply hurts the bank shareholders and does nothing to the fat cats who draw these big salaries to supervise the operations of the bank.  Whatever happend to " personal responsibility ".    A departmental head is directly responsible for what happens in the chain of command he or she controls.

We will see more of this arrogance until the nightly news delivers a very different picture.  When we see these people in their thousand dollar suits escorted from the bank by flanking police officers, handcuffed and put in the back of a police car for transport to a police charge room.  We will be agog to read of their jury trial and the media speculation as to what length of imprisonment will be handed down.

Watch the dramatic change in personal accountability across the entire financial spectrum once we stop handing out mega fines and insist that the people responsible for breaking the laws directly answer for their crimes.

Stopping Child Sexual Abuse !

After 444 days of public hearings and 8134 private sessions the Royal Commission on child sex abuse in Australia has handed down its findings. It breathed fresh air into the dark corridors of institutional abuse where paedophilia has run rampant for centuries.

Where this has been brought to the attention of those with decisive power the abuse is usually covered up to protect the good name and reputation of either the church or the institution involved. The accuser is disbelieved, and in many cases severely punished for the crime of making an accusation. The key recommendation is a new law to make it a criminal offence for failing to protect children from sexual abuse. As a part of that law, it would be an offence to not report any accusation of a sexual offence to the police for further investigation. This reporting obligation would include when that person knows, suspects or should have known that sexual abuse was happening within an institution.

This is where the statute of proposed law needs to be specially diligent. It has to be abundantly clear that this reporting obligation is mandatory on all priests and ministers, lawyers, teachers, doctors and hospital workers - in fact on any person who comes into contact with a child who may be suffering sexual persecution. It must be a law that accepts no excuses. Failure to comply comes with the expectation of a severe prison sentence. This Royal Commission has found that the sexual abuse of children seems to be prevalent across the broad spectrum of churches, schools, sporting and dance clubs, the armed services and out of home care services. Everywhere children congregate they are targets for the percentage of paedophiles who form part of the general population. In the past, reputational harm has taken precedence over care of the child.

The Catholic church has come in for special mention because of the prevalence of harm concentrated under its reach. It is suggested that the enforced celibacy of priests may set their sexual attractions into other directions and the Vatican should consider optional celibacy. The other contentious issue is the sanctity of the confessional. It is irrational that a person who confesses child sexual abuse to a priest remains free to reoffend. The law suggests that the confidentiality of the confessional should not pertain in such matters. Both of these issues are deep in the roots of the Catholic church and can only change by a direct order from the Pope.

The Vatican seems reluctant to even sign off on reporting child sex accusations to the police for their investigation and it seems likely that the findings of this Royal Commission will lead to a clash between church and state. That would be unfortunate. The Catholic church is now aware of the lasting shame that has been occurring within its walls and the need for rooting out the silence that has prevailed. Paedophile priests have been simply moved to other parishes, where they have been free to reoffend. This new reporting law would see not only offending priests but the bishops covering their tracks serving prison time. In this modern day and age, that would probably get the approval of the Catholic lay public.

If nothing else, this Royal Commission has dragged the issue of child sexual abuse - kicking and screaming - into the public domain. The cloud of secrecy that covered it - has evaporated. It will never be completely eliminated, but with the right laws in place Australia will be a much safer place for our children !

Disappointing Results !

The argument used when Fair Trading was reviewing penalty rates for weekend work was that Australia had embraced the 24/7 economy and that these wage surcharges were preventing many businesses from weekend trading.   It was reasoned that if they were abolished there would be a jobs bonanza !

Fair Trading bought that argument and penalty rate reductions are being incrementally applied.  The first round of three five percent cuts came into force in June.  The Business Council applauded and contended that working on a Sunday was not more " unsociable " than working on a Saturday.   There was the expectation that many business which closed on weekends would have a change of mind and grasp this business opportunity.

Sadly, that has not happened.  A joint survey of  1351 workers by the University of Wollongong and Macquarie University deliver surprising results.  It found that fifteen percent of retail workers who were employed on Sundays worked nine percent fewer hours between June and July, while hospitality workers experienced no change in their hours.

These results confirm a statistically significant decrease in the proportion of award employees working on Sundays between June and July 2017.   This is in sharp contrast to the hypothesised outcome predicted when the award was changed.

No doubt both sides of politics will use these figures to score points, but most realists would see it as a predictable outcome.  Some would sheet these negative results to the " wait and see syndrome ".   There are many  aspects the average business owner would consider before making such a monumental change.

For a start, those closing on a Sunday have the benefit of at least one day of rest a week.  That is not given up lightly and penalty rates are not abolished, merely reduced - with more to come in the future.   That seems a good reason to delay a decision on expanded weekend trading.  We are also very much creatures of habit.   If a business is returning an adequate profit the incentive to open for longer hours has less appeal.

Then there is the bond with long serving retail staff.  Any employer values the services of people who do their job well and regularly turn up on time.  Delivering a pay cut for longer hours is something some employers may abandon in the interests of continuity - at least in this first, minor stage.

We may also be seeing a change in the staffing of what may be termed " family businesses " - where the spouse and children of the owner are the workers.  Rarely do such people get paid at award rates and the prospect of cheaper casual labour may lead to extended trading hours or weekend opening, but not until full rate reductions are in place.

The most logical conclusion is that this survey has been taken far too soon, and that the results of this wage change will take a lot longer to filter through the general economy.

The Cost of Divorce !

A Family Court judge has delivered a stinging criticism of how the legal profession is using the emotional state of the people seeking a divorce to prolong litigation and justify outrageous legal fees for their services. A " win at all costs " attitude prevailed and he cited one example where obtaining a divorce resulted in a bill of $ 800,000. The two areas most contested concern the division of property and the parenting arrangements for any children of the marriage. The whole concept of the Family Court when it came into being was supposed to make divorce more " civilized " and allow a judge to make a fair division of property and settle each child issue to obtain the best outcome for the child. It was hoped that most divorces would avoid the need for legal representation. In the dim, dark past a divorce threw a shadow of shame. A divorced person found that shame an obstacle on the promotional ladder and many churches refused to recognise - or remarry - those who had undergone a divorce. In Royal circles, no divorced person was deemed suitable to be included in any gathering at which the Queen would be present. The law leaned heavily on the aspect of justice that required someone to be responsible for the marriage breakdown. The law did allow divorce on the grounds of one party deserting the other, but it required a seven year time frame, so the preferred grounds were " adultery " by one of the parties. That opened a Pandora's box. It became a world of private investigators peering though bedroom windows and recording court evidence on film. The divorce courts drew crowds of spectators keen to hear the titillating evidence presented in court. Divorce became a public spectacle. What really applied was a clash between the legal aspect of marriage and the laws of the churches. The churches insisted on that " until death do them part " vow. That delivered a life of misery when incompatible couples make the mistake of going to the altar. A more merciful approach was thankfully applied when the Family Court became the only means of legally terminating a marriage. Today, a lot of divorces are processed without the need for legal representation. The problem is that many marriage breakdowns are acrimonious and both parties call in the lawyers and fight to the bitter end over even minor matters. This Family Court judge was criticising the enthusiasm some law firms have for encouraging this attitude and chasing ever legal rabbit down every bolt hole - to justify the bill they present at the divorce conclusion. Many firms advertise as " Divorce Lawyers " and promise rewarding outcomes. That $ 800,000 legal bill would be a shattering experience to most middle income families - and it probably had little bearing on the result achieved. The Family Court adheres to a recognised formulae of an even split between most couples and the only contentious aspect is which parent is awarded custody of the children. The non-custodial parent pays maintenance according to a court approved rate applicable to the child's age. The award of visiting rights can also cause conflict. This Family Court judge asked the Legal Services Commissioner to investigate whether the fees charged in that $ 800,000 case could constitute professional misconduct. It seems evident that some legal practices are specifically milking that emotional aspect by encouraging litigation that only serves to enhance the bill for services that they will charge. Unfortunately, in divorce the acrimony is often so intense that common sense will rarely apply. The only winners will be the divorcing people who take a pragmatic approach and adhere to the formulae dictated by law. In this day and age, obtaining a divorce is quite possible with minimum legal representation. Unfortunately, the " revenge " motif is usually the prime motivation where divorce is concerned.

End of an Icon !

In Australia the name " Westfield " probably illustrates the opportunities that await those who migrate to this country and apply initiative and hard work to create an empire.   Almost fifty-seven years ago Frank Lowy and business partner  John Saunders built the Westfield Shopping centre complex from scratch.  With shrewd foresight it expanded to the US, New Zealand and Britain.

This week, now Sir Frank Lowy is urging his shareholders to accept an offer from one of the worlds biggest  property companies to purchase Westfield for $ 32.8 billion dollars.  We are on the cusp of a great change in our shopping habits and Lowy accepts the need to pass the baton to the European firm of Uniball-Rodamco who will have the task of making Westfield adapt to how shopping will evolve in the future.

The bricks and mortar shopping world is under threat from Internet shopping and this has cut a swathe through many smaller strip malls and older main street shopping centres.  The Westfield  portfolio have held up well but it is evident that change is about to occur and the future will see these centres evolve with a wider range of activities  The impetus will concentrate on entertainment and cater for  theatres and restaurants, sports - and to a lesser degree - shopping.

This is an exciting - and dangerous - time for the people owning the world shopping centres.  Big players are moving into the supply field and public tastes are changing.  The winners will be those who accurately predict what will emerge and configure what they are offering to meet that need.

A big part of the present shopping centre scene involves " franchise " operations where independent owners offer merchandise under the brand name of a famous entity.  It is fast becoming apparent that many of these are not viable and some are being forced to close their doors at great financial loss.  It is claimed that these franchise conditions are often onerous and force the payment of sub standard wages to even reach a break even stage of operation.  In many cases, such franchises have been the only chance for independent operators to establish their own business.

It seems quite possible that the future may not favour clusters of smaller shops surrounding an anchor tenant and franchise operations may sharply decrease.  This change of Westfield ownership comes with a warning that major change is about to happen.  Small business owners will await that outcome with trepidation !

Frank Lowy had the insight to correctly gauge the right time to create his shopping empire.  He is one of the few with the good business sense to know when it is the right time to walk away !

The " Christmas " Scam !

This is the time of the year when we are all vulnerable to a new kind of fraud perpetrated by the Internet scammers.  Christmas gift giving means that there are a lot of parcels moving about in the various delivery services and many did their Christmas shopping on the Internet. We would not be surprised to get an email message that seems to originate from Australia Post or DHL apologising for a " missed delivery " and purporting to put things right.

The first danger springs into action if our curiosity causes us to open that email to see what it is all about.  Once you click on that email you have opened the door to a flood of ransomware that can infect your computer and allow the scammers to shut it down and lock you out of your own information.  That ransomware simply changes all the passwords and the scammers demand that you pay whatever they ask to have your computer returned to your control.

Sometimes the scammers actually honour their end of the arrangement when the ransom is paid, but often they are never heard from again once the money changes hands - and the computer remains locked.   There is also the risk that the ransomware will leave a trace carefully concealed so that the scammers can have a second bite at the cherry at a later date.  That may enable them to read your message traffic with the aim of stealing bank passwords and other sensitive information.

The more common scam is to seek personal information in the guise that they need to determine if you are the correct recipient of this " missed delivery ".  They may ask you to name your street number and the nearest cross street, ask for the names of any other family members - and require your date of birth.   All that information could enable them to achieve identity theft.

Assuming another persons identity is fraught with danger. A clever scammer can rack up a mountain of debt and do irreparable damage to your credit reputation.  The commercial world is hitting back and the most common defence is to send their customer a message on their mobile phone asking them to authenticate an unusually large purchase or an item that seems out of character.   This also automatically applies if the bank receives a money transfer to a site with no previous history.  This filter is becoming very effective in stopping fraud at the point of sale.

The age of the computer continues to advance and few can now resist the relentless use of the computer billing cycle.   The old method of mailing out a paper bill each month now comes with a hefty surcharge or is no longer available and elderly people find their bills arrive by computer or mobile phone.  Unfortunately, many are vulnerable to the slick presentation that the scam industry now uses to appear genuine.

The elderly would be well advised to seek the guidance of a younger family member to monitor their computer traffic.  The younger generation can usually spot suspicious gambits that are not part of usual practice - but the scammers also develop new techniques with great ingenuity.  This is a battle that is fought with electronic weapons.

The " Humanitarian " News Cycle !

"  Once upon a time " was the traditional first line of most fairy tales and the story line usually served to either warn little kids of dangers to be avoided or had a humanitarian twist to deliver a sound nights sleep.  Today we live in a more questioning age and it seems that the cynics are quick to question the motives of altruistic events.

Just such a story emerged from the fire devastation that has been destroying so many homes in the suburbs of Los Angeles.  The news cycle is enlivened by the contributions from ordinary citizens who use the camera in their Smartphones to grab their five minutes of fame.

It seems that Oscar Gonzales was driving home along a highway flanked by flames when he spotted a rabbit desperately trying to outpace the fire.  He got out of his car and with a massive wall of flames as the backdrop, raced onto the roadside and scooped up the rabbit.   Another citizen recorded this event on his or her phone, and the clip was offered to a Los Angeles television network.

The clever news editors thought that this was just the right clip to lighten the panorama of burning homes that the traditional Santa Anna wind was once again inflicting on California.   Oscar became an instant hero and most people applauded his brave action to save endangered wildlife.

This " Rabbit Rescue " quickly went coast to coast in the television news cycle and from there got an instant airing on social media.  That picture of Oscar backlit by flames and with the rabbit in his hands went viral and was probably viewed by a billion people.

Not all approved of his action.  The story has sparked a lively debate about whether his actions were helpful - or whether he triggered a disaster.   It has been suggested that perhaps that rabbit was not running from the fire, but trying to reach a litter of babies.  That sparked a story in some sections of the media that suggested that " the wildlife rescuer may have doomed a litter of baby rabbits ".

Unfortunately, this is a story that has no happy ending.  Oscar thought of taking that rabbit to  a rescue centre but they were all closed.  It is assumed that he released it when he reached an area safe from fire and it is now establishing a new home in an unfamiliar bush setting.  We will never know.   The news cycle has moved to other events - and that rabbit was yesterdays story !

It would be interesting to know how this changed the life of the man who saved the rabbit.  His family, friends and the people associated with his work will all have an opinion and most will be favourable, but it seems inevitable that he will face criticism from some.  Such is the price of instant fame.

Many here in Australia may remember a film clip from an earlier bushfire season where a firefighter encountered a scorched Koala - and offered it a drink from his water bottle.   That seemed to receive universal approval, but such is the mood of social media today that a repeat would most likely bring cynics to the fore.

Burying the Dead !

As a predominantly Christian country, Australia adopted the English custom of disposing of the dead by digging a hole six feet deep and making  that the final resting place of the deceased.  In some instances, families purchased additional land to house a crypt where various generations could be accommodated.  It became customary for some graves to be decorated with expensive statuary and often this was used to display the wealth and stature of whoever was buried there.

Put plainly, Sydney is fast running out of grave sites.   If there is no change to the ratio of cremations to burials,  cemetery capacity in greater Sydney will be exhausted by 2051.   All attempts to create new burial grounds face stiff opposition from the public.  The only option seems to be " renewable rights " where sites are reused unless the family pays renewal fees at twenty-five year intervals.

There are 851 working cemeteries in New South Wales, but only two - Waverley and Kemps Creek Cemeteries - offer this renewable rights option.   Public reaction to the permanency question is mixed. Most people would prefer grave sites to remain undisturbed forever, but the cost of a burial is moving out of reach of many families and consequently cremations are gaining favour.

In the distant past, each suburb set ground aside for a local cemetery and close relatives tended those graves as a mark of respect for the dead.  We now live in a changing world where people move to distant cities and even different countries as the job market changes and many of those old cemeteries are now filled to capacity, but rarely visited by relatives.  They have become an untidy blot on the landscape.

Perhaps this space shortage presents an opportunity for the funeral industry to present a new option to the public.  Having a cemetery close to each suburb has long given way to vast cemeteries like Rookwood and now the concept of burials which do not have a time term need to move to the country.

Many picturesque but struggling country towns would welcome the revival brought by a new funeral industry.  In fact, such would be the revival of an old custom.  Before cars became a means of transport for the masses, Sydney maintained what was called the " Mortuary Station " in the inner city from which grieving families travelled by train to distant suburban cemeteries.  It seems that the time has arrived to relocate those city cemeteries to where pleasant locations can provide the space for undisturbed graves and burials can remain within the cost structure of ordinary families.

Custom has displaced ornate statuary above graves and the lawn cemetery is now in vogue.   It is a simple fact of life that once a generation or so has passed the interest in family graves wanes and so these modern country cemeteries should remain viable indefinitely.

The day of city funerals is coming to a close. The funeral industry needs to adapt to new possibilities if it is to survive.

Jerusalem !

Three of the worlds great religions have the city of Jerusalem as a pivotal point of how their faith evolved.  Centuries ago great armies locked in battle as Christian Crusaders fought Islam for control of the holy city from which the Jews of the world had been earlier dispersed.  The city has settled into an uneasy peace as its status remains undecided - until this weeks startling announcement by Donald Trump, the American president.

Trump has recognised Jerusalem as the capital of Israel and has said that he will move the American embassy from Tel Aviv in recognition of its new status.  Within hours of that announcement clashes commenced between Palestinian demonstrators and the Israeli military.  There are calls for a new intifada and it seems certain that there will be many deaths as this issue becomes a battle between rock throwing mobs and retaliatory rubber bullet fire from security forces.

It dashes any last hope of success in negotiating a peace deal which involves a separate Palestinian state alongside Israel, although further progress has seemed unlikely. By naming Jerusalem as the Israeli capital Trump has endorsed the Israeli claim and put the American military might on the line to underpin whatever outcome that evolves.

What is causing concern in the minds of other world leaders is the complete lack of warning that Donald Trump was going to interfere in such a delicate matter.  There was no back channel discussion and even Trump's Secretary of State was left bemused.  It is highly likely that this matter was decided by discussion between Trump and his son in law.   The entire American political system was kept out of the loop and many may now question the presidents sanity !

The Presidential system places great power in the hands of the person elected to govern from the Oval office, but there is the expectation that this will be used wisely.  Previous presidents surrounded themselves with advisers with intimate knowledge to guide their decisions but this president seems to rely on an ever changing group which he ignores in favour of advice from his own family.  Many of his decisions are released to the public - and the world - by way of a tweet on Twitter or a rambling diatribe on Facebook.

Donald Trump gathered the votes to win office by presenting himself in a populist guise that appealed to the many whose job prospects and incomes had been downgraded by globalization.  He made many utopian promises that were deemed unsupportable by most thinking people, but which appealed to those with a limited knowledge of both economics and the world trade system.  He broadly promised to take America back to the prosperous nineteen fifties - completely ignoring the fact that this era has been supplanted by a changed world order.

It seems likely that an alarmed Congress may now seek to limit Presidential power, but how that may be achieved is unclear.  His interference in the affairs of the state of Israel by naming Jerusalem as its capital is both alarming and has the potential for other unwise decisions.   Obviously, the prospect of a man like Donald Trump winning presidential office never entered the head of the founding fathers when they worded the Declaration of Independence

Sky High Water Bills !

Remember those balmy days of yesteryear when most homes had a magnificently green lawn to compliment their suburban setting ?  Drive through on a summer day and it was usual to see countless sprinklers at work nourishing that grass with unlimited water.

A report on Australian water is predicting that this commodity is about to join  electricity and gas with ever rising bills.  The days of cheap water are over and we can blame a multitude of reasons for the coming price hikes.

High on the list is the popularity of our state capital cities.  It is expected that Sydney, Melbourne, Perth and Brisbane will swell by almost six million people by 2031.   The existing water system and its source can not cope with those numbers and will require almost complete duplication.   In many suburbs, this reticulation is over a hundred years old.

Some cities splurged on expensive desalination plants when there was a fear of a water shortage and generally these are unused as that crisis passed.   The eleven billion dollars involved in buying these plants has blocked more progressive water plans and prevented the economics that could have delivered cheaper water.

Unhelpfully, we abolished the National Water Commission in 2015 and it was this body that was responsible for planning the future water needs of the nation.  We now have no national oversight of water management or reform issues.  Individual states make their own arrangements and very often these have a chain effect on supplies for other users.

The unknown factor is climate change.   We have a hotter planet and it seems likely that there will be changes in rainfall patterns.  Some of the water we drink comes from snow melt and it is quite clear that the winter snow depth is retreating. Our water access is based on past rainfall patterns and if that changes we may need to go further for supplies - and perhaps the quantity available has to be shared with other users.

This report contains a prediction of what we will pay for water in the future.  The typical water and sewerage bill has risen by about eight percent each year after inflation to about $ 1226 in 2017.  In todays dollars, they will reach $ 1827 in 2027 and more than double to around $2550 by 2040 - and those are optimistic estimates.

The day is fast coming when we will need to treat water like most other commodities that we buy - with care because it is a costly item.  When we have a luxuriously deep bath or take a very long shower we will need to remember that the meter is ticking away with the quantity being used, and that is a significant lifestyle change.

Few people today put a great value on the water that reaches their home.   They simply regard it as that stuff that falls from the sky.  It may in future choose to do so less often, or in different places.  The one certainty is that water is about to start costing us in similar measure to gas and electricity.   The size of the bill depends on how much we use !

The " Public Housing " Question !

Sirius is an example of what is described as " brutalist architecture " style which happened to get built where it has sweeping views of both the Opera House and the Harbour bridge.  It exceeds what is now the permitted height for the iconic Rocks area and its apartments are in need of a very costly makeover to bring them to a modern standard.  Since 1980 they have provided accommodation for public housing tenants.

The existing tenants are fighting tooth and nail to have this building preserved as Housing Commission stock because they don't want to lose their fabulous views, and that is understandable but it is that view that would bring more than a hundred million dollars it the site were was offered on the open market.

Developers would pay a fortune to demolish and build modern housing which would actually be smaller than the existing building.  The plans for a new building would need to be no higher than the bridge decking and make no restriction to sight lines from the bridge to the Opera House.  The building would provide a similar return if the apartments were offered for public sale and the new owners allowed to make their own internal renovations.   That would probably satisfy the many people who wish to see the building preserved or added to the heritage register.

The fate of Sirius is similar to what is happening to older public housing at Millers Point.  This also have sweeping harbour views and are being sold for redevelopment with the funds going to create more public housing on the outskirts of the city.  For each Millers Point property sold, the funds build five new homes.   So far this has resulted in 700 new public housing homes being added to the stock and another 372 under construction.

Those with socialist views complain that public housing tenants are being denied space in opulent suburbs with pleasing views to make way for rich people.  We have a long waiting list for public housing and it is a matter of economics that selling properties which have added value frees the funds to create a greater number of homes where the site value is lower.

Some would question the wisdom of new public housing being sited far from the city centre and mainly composing free standing houses on individual building blocks.  This is ideal for families with small children, but it runs counter to what is happening in the general population.  More families are being forced to adopt apartment living and perhaps public housing should concentrate on this provision.

Those far outer suburbs face a transport problem accessing city jobs and this adds to traffic congestion and the toll cost to provide labour for low wage essential jobs that keep the city functioning.  More apartment public housing would be welcome on high volume transit routes being served by new trams and the metro.

It should also be remembered that public housing was never intended to be an offer of a home for life.   For the average person it was an interim measure while they developed their skills and moved to a higher income that allowed them to move to home ownership, or to enter the public rental market.

It is essential that public housing stock be continually turned over to generate the funds to increase the volume.  Public housing will never meet demand and the argument to retain public housing because it has nice views  falls short on reality grounds.   Few languishing on the waiting list would accept that point of view !

Foreign Influence in Australia.

It would be a reasonable assumption that since Federation a vast number of the politicians who we have elected to Federal parliament  have had some sort of citizenship right with another country.  At the time of Federation the majority of people who called themselves Australian had a heritage that was either from England, Ireland, Scotland or Wales.

For most of that time, we as Commonwealth citizens had automatic entry rights to the United Kingdom.  It was only when Britain entered the Common Market that this changed.  It is because of this witch hunt to identify dual citizens sitting in the Federal parliament that many citizens are surprised to find that by the birth of their parents they have an automatic rights to claim dual citizenship in another country.

The only problem with that is when our Constitution was drafted the legal minds inserted a clause that required our elected representatives to be free of any encumbrance or obligation to another country, and that is the cause of the unseating of elected representatives that is presently roiling our Federal parliament.

There is no suggestion that the people involved are other than loyal Australians and their election was perfectly valid - had they known that this citizenship anomaly existed and been revoked by their own actions.  Some have since done so and may face a fresh by-election to regain a seat that their dual citizenship declared vacant.

No doubt all future politicians will carefully examine this issue before contesting a seat but perhaps we would be wiser to simply change the Constitution to remove this anomaly.  Unfortunately, this would need a referendum  that would cost millions of dollars.

Concern about the way foreign influence is being used to shape policy in this country has the government looking at law reform.  Representatives of other countries are required to register as lobbyists and there are limits on donations to political parties but measures being considered will take this a lot further.   The government will seek to introduce a new category of " Political Campaigner " into the Electoral Act.   That may be slapped on any person or organization that may be acting undercover in using funds to influence policy decisions.

In particular, the government is looking to identify and contain shadowy contributors who are stoking fake news stories on social media such as Twitter and Facebook to create a point of view that suits the interests of a foreign government.  There is concern that this may constrict the flow of foreign donations to legitimate Australian charities if donors are forced to comply with the same disclosures and reporting requirements as a political party.

Social media has undergone an amazing change in recent years and old laws are no longer relevant. It has become evident that sophisticated departments exist in some countries specifically  concerned with influencing public opinion in target countries by manipulating the stories going to air on social media to change public thinking.  This public thinking can affect the outcome of elections, resulting in outcomes that suit foreign governments.

Social media change will continue to be constant and the laws that control it will need to keep pace. The influence on public thinking is a form of cyber warfare carried out by potential enemies.  We ignore it at or peril  !

Killing the Goose !

Australia is the preferred destination for young backpackers from many world countries who enjoy a summer holiday here and cover the cost by working in the agricultural industry and helping to harvest the crops.   Most enter this country under either the 417 or the 462 working holiday visa scheme.

Our agricultural industry makes it quite clear that without this willing labour there would be a serious shortfall in both meeting overseas orders for Australian produce and supplying the fruit and vegetable shops in our cities.  They mostly spend the money they earn and as a result this backpacker flow contributes an estimated  $ 3.5 billion to the national economy.

When Tony Abbott was prime minister there was a proposal to disallow the usual  minimum earnings before tax applies and tax backpackers from the very first dollar they earn.  This tax rate was originally proposed to be at the draconian rate of thirty-two cents in the dollar.  That produced concern from backpackers in other countries and despair from Australian agriculture that tax would see Australia drop off the backpacker circuit - and our harvest would rot on the trees.

As a result, this tax rate was cut back to fifteen cents in the dollar, but it is now applied without the concession of a minimum level of earnings escaping tax before the tax rate applies, as is the system with domestic Australian taxpayers.

Now foreign backpackers have launched legal action against this impost.  It is claimed that the tax  contravenes the anti discrimination clauses in treaties Australia has signed with Britain, the United States, Germany, Finland, Chili, Japan, Norway and Turkey.   The legal action seeks " declaratory relief " for citizens of those countries.   If successful, it would render them exempt from the tax.

Many people see this tax anomaly imposed on backpackers as a knee jerk reaction when our immigration levels were attracting political attention.  Some suggested that backpackers were taking jobs that would be better served by our unemployed young people, completely ignoring the fact that our unemployed reject this type of work.

We actually have people drawing the dole in areas where fruit picking jobs are going begging, and despite demands that the unemployed journey to where work is available we seem to lack the will to make that happen.  Strangely, it is young Australian backpackers that often bring in the crops in the northern hemisphere when they take working holidays to see the world.

This move to impose what is a confiscatory tax on backpackers which is completely out of kilter with the tax ordinary Australians pay is simply a bad idea.  Unfortunately we are already into this summer season and it is possible that many backpackers will have crossed Australia off their itinerary.  That would be a price Australian agriculture may pay with unpicked crops.

We would be unwise to wait for this challenge to meander through the courts.  This seems to have overtones about killing a goose that lays golden eggs.

Tax Dodgers !

There is n doubt that the big four banks in Australia have acted badly in exploiting their combined banking monopoly to amass huge profits.  Bad publicity more than law changes have ended the practice of issuing fifty dollar fines for paying credit card debts just a day late but this coming Royal Commission is going to be a battle between the government and a phalanx of the worlds best lawyers hired by the banks to protect their profits.

A lot of unpleasant things are going to get dragged - kicking and screaming - into the spotlight and there is an expectation that the findings may result in a more ethical standard of banking practice in this country.  Even the banks seem to have recognised that some sort of enquiry was inevitable and ceased voicing opposition.

Waiting in the wings is another huge problem that is crippling the world economy.  The ability of giant corporations to legally balance their books in such a way that they avoid paying tax on their profits.  There are accusations that oil giant ExxonMobil has paid no Australian tax in the past two years on the $18 billion money flow that is associated with their control of our natural gas industry. This is the firm that runs the critical Esso Longford gas distribution plant that supplies both domestic and industrial gas to homes and industries on the east coast.

We are about to becoming the biggest gas exporter in the world, and yet there is a gas shortage for domestic use and the price has escalated to crippling levels - and we are not getting the just rewards for the very product coming out of the ground - that is jointly owned by the Australian population.

Unfortunately, this can not be resolved by a Royal Commission, nor is it just an Australian problem.  These behemoths juggle intellectual rights and stock transfers between countries and into offshore tax havens in such a way that they meet the standards of accounting practice.  Should a country like Australia clamp down and force them to pay tax they have the ability to walk away from financing new industries and neglecting maintenance on existing local operations to inflict punishment on the Australian economy.

They have the monetary power to bluff the world and they play one country off against another and this is not helped by the power blocks in open conflict that prevent a united front to install commercial practice to stop these shenanigans.  It is not helpful that some countries actively assist the scams by deliberately lowering their tax regimens to attract these giants to locate to their country. They do this to gain from the jobs establishing regional headquarters will create, plus the nominal tax to be paid as part of the arrangement.

Sadly, if all the giant international companies paid the legitimate tax owed in normal accounting practice we would probably have balanced books and a very healthy economy.  It would seem reasonable to expect world countries to band together and install a common tax regime that would result in tax paid where the money was earned, but world politics make that unlikely to ever happen

It seems that the four banks facing a Royal Commission are only pygmies in relation to the giants of the commercial world.

" Marriage " Consequences !

It seems that we are just days away from same sex marriage becoming legal in Australia and when it does we can expect the marriage industry to go into overdrive as couples who have waited for so long rush to tie the knot.   This legislation will also deliver legal sanction to same sex marriages which were held in overseas countries that recognised gay unions, but these marriages were not legally recognised here in Australia.

The bill before the parliament erases the ban on recognition of same sex marriages solemnised   overseas and will apply retrospectively.   The Equality Campaign estimates that thousands of Australian couples have taken their vows in countries such as Britain, Canada and the Netherlands where same sex marriage has been legal since 2001.  Almost a thousand Australian couples have taken advantage of New Zealand's decision to change its marriage law in 2013.   Many simply flew across the ditch to solemnise their union.

It seems very likely that this law change in Australia will have some unintended consequences.  Those same sex marriages recorded under an overseas jurisdiction had no legal recognition in Australia, so if they foundered and the couple parted there was no necessity to apply for a divorce. You could hardly apply to an Australian court for a divorce from a marriage which the law considers did not happen.

All that changes when our new law comes into force.   There is every expectation that like " straight " marriage, many same sex couplings will end in acrimony and separation.  Some who married overseas may have walked away from that union and even remarried.  They could find that because of this law change they are now guilty of bigamy.

There is another change that some may not welcome.  Because those overseas marriages will confer legal status on the couples involved, dissolving the union will now involve the dreaded Family Court - with its starchy protocols on the division of property.   We seem to be entering a new realm where one of a same sex couple can expect an unequal division of wealth which applies to how "wives " are treated by the Family Court.   And interesting conundrum when both are of the same sex.

At the very least, when this law change comes into force we seem certain to see some overseas marriages where the couple have parted - and the sudden imposition of legal status delivers a need for the union  to be legally terminated.  It will take time for the Family Court to adjust its thinking accordingly.

In the past, the Family Courts concern revolved around divorce and its impact on the family unit.  This law changed will certainly deliver a re-evaluation of needs.

When the Cops come a'calling !

About two thousand Sydney people are about to get an unexpected text message on their mobile phones.  It will be from the police and it will tell them that their phone number was detected on the phone records of drug dealers arrested in a recent police swoop.   This will not be a threatening message and it will simply request that the phone's owner contact the police with any information that may be applicable.

That will create panic in many circles because the police have just arrested twenty-eight men and three women in a brazen drug bust that has seen cocaine availability replicate the pizza trade.  Simply place your order by phone and a friendly courier will be on his or her way to make that delivery.

This was crime on a well organized basis and operation " Northrop " has been gaining information since September.  It culminated in an arrest in the city that set off police raids on homes in Wolli Creek, Sydney, Penshurst, Concord, Paddington and Campsie.  This ever widening net has the expectation of more seizures of both drugs and money.

The impetus was mainly on cocaine distribution, but the gang also supplied MDMA and the raids seized more than $ 120,000 in cash - and two fully loaded firearms were detected in the swoop.  It seems that the drug supply is now so common that it is adopting commercial supply methods in defiance of the police.

There is now a police expectation that they know the identity of two thousand Sydney residents who have at one time bought drugs from this criminal gang.   Finding their phone number on a drug criminal's phone is not a crime in itself, but there is a reasonable assumption that they may turn to a new supplier to feed their habit.

That is an incredibly valuable information source that police may use to their advantage.  Anyone getting that message from the police would assume that there is a good chance that their phone may be monitored in the future.  Many will discard that phone and seek a new network and a new number, but that in itself may be motivation for police undercover surveillance.

No doubt it will create suspicion in many families.  If a family member has a hidden drug habit that police text message creates a dilemma.  Ignore it and that might result in a uniformed officer making a house call to follow up - with embarrassing results.

In nothing else this drug bust illustrates that what are called "  party drugs  " are now so common that seeking a dealer in a grotty back street no longer satisfies demand.   The profits are so rewarding that the drug trade is adopting commercial practice and buyer expectation involves home delivery.  That sharply increases the risk of exposure.

Sexual Complaint - as a Weapon !

Sexual predators who use their positions of power to coerce women to have sex with them are being unmasked as women find their voices. In many cases it is the captains of industry and people high in the media spotlight who are being named and shamed - and in most cases their employers drop them like a hot potato  !

This is the unspoken hazard women have faced for generations and it manifests itself in all lifestyles.  There have been whispers that those attending the police academy are under pressure for sex in exchange for better grades from their instructors and similar incentives are rife in our universities.  Wherever a man is in a position to award a reward he has the opportunity of exchanging that benefit for a sexual favour.

That has simply been a fact of life since the early days of the industrial revolution.  A woman who spoke out and complained was ostracised and disbelieved.  Now the feminist movement is removing those shackles and many famous sexual predators are facing justice.  All it now takes is for a woman to come forward and make a claim and this is immediately taken up by an enthusiastic media.  If the person named is a serial transgressor, other women join the fray, eager to see justice served.

Unfortunately, it is also a medium for settling scores.  It is indeed a powerful weapon in the hands of a woman who has other reasons for disliking a work colleague.  Such a claim can end careers.  The person accused may deny this claim and no proof may be forthcoming, but the damage is done and in the present mood the media will run with the story.

Just such a situation appears to have ensnared Geoffrey Rush.  Rush is a serious actor who has won Academy Awards and regularly appears in productions by the prestigious Sydney Theatre Company.
Surprisingly, it is the Sydney Theatre Company which has chosen to release a statement implicating Rush in a claim lodged by a woman that he is a sexual transgressor.

Through his lawyers, Rush comments  "  It is a disappointment the STC has chosen to smear his name and unjustifiably damage his reputation in this way ".  He has not been afforded the right to know what has been alleged.  The release of that information to the public is both a denial of public justice and is not how our society operates.

The STC has made it plain that this was an allegation made to the STC and is not a conclusion of impropriety.   It appears that the STC was approached by a journalist earlier this month and asked if it had received a complaint  alleging inappropriate behaviour.   The STC  responded truthfully and the complainant had requested that the matter be dealt with confidentially and did not want Mr Rush notified or involved.  The STC complied, acting in the interests of the complainant's health and welfare.  The identity of the complainant has been withheld at the request of the individual.

This seems to be an intolerable situation where Geoffrey Rush has received maximum media attention and been branded as a sexual predator.  It appears that he will not be told of the nature of his claimed assault nor the identity of the supposed victim.  If that victim declines to press the matter further no other action will take place and the matter will rest in limbo, but Rush will suffer the implication if the public mind that he is a sexual deviant.

The feminist movement may demur, but justice demands that those making sexual complaints be publicly identified and prepared to defend their claim as it is publicly scrutinised.  Otherwise, it is simply trial by innuendo which may have other sinister motives.   It opens the door for character assassination without redress.

Trial by media will never achieve the tried and true dissemination of facts achieved by the presentation of evidence in a court of law.  Such is the right of all accused  !

Treachery !

China has laid claim to most of the South China Sea as an integral part of its sovereign  territory. It has enhanced that claim by developing a number of submerged rocks and tiny island outcroppings by dredging sand  to expand the above water area.  These are now so substantial that they can house airfields and other defence facilities.

China has claimed the air space above the South China Sea and demands that civilian air traffic adhere to Chinese air traffic control when using this area.  It has placed no restrictions on movement, but the rest of the world has ignored this claim.

No attempt has been made to interfere with commercial shipping, but when naval ships of other nations use this international waterway they are warned that they are infringing Chinese territory and there is an implied threat to their safety.

This ownership issue was settled when the Chinese claim was rejected by the Permanent Court of Arbitration in the Hague.  China has ignored that decision and is fast building a blue water navy that may at some future time attempt to enforce Chinese sovereignty by placing restrictions on who may use this international waterway.

Having failed to achieve legal recognition, China is playing the " might is right " option.  It is in possession of the South China Sea and is harassing the fishing boats of other nations who traditionally fish its waters.  This is becoming one of the world trouble spots that could easily dissolve into military conflict.

The Australian government backs the stance of the Permanent Court of Arbitration that the South China Sea is an international waterway with right of passage open to all countries.  It now appears that Labor Senator Sam Dastyari disagrees with the policy of both the government and his own political party and has seen fit to publicly endorse this Chinese claim at a press conferenced, which saw him dropped from a position on the opposition front bench.   There was also an issue where a leading Chinese businessman had paid Dastyari's personal bills which compromised his integrity.

Dastyari has long dodged coming clean on that press conference speech in which he claimed that Australia should not become involved in the South China Sea claim. He claimed to have been misquoted and taken out of context, but now a recording of that speech has surfaced to haunt him.

Even more damaging is a claim that he warned that leading Chinese businessman that his phone was likely to be tapped by Australian security and that he should not speak near his phone, either near the instrument or anywhere within his home.  He took the Chinese businessman into the garden to deliver that message.

As an elected member of the Senate Dastyari is expected to be loyal to Australia.  The fact that he has attempted to compromise the Australian Security service by giving a warning which may have come to his knowledge because of his position in the Senate is completely untenable.  He should be disendorsed by his party at the next election.

The Prime Ministers question of   " Which side are you on  " was very valid  !