Bridging the Divide !

We are about to spend fifty million dollars to create a memorial to the day that Captain James Cook first stepped ashore at Kurnell on April 29, 1770.   To the ancestors of the first settlers that commemorates the birth of what has evolved as the Australian nation but to the Indigenous people who were already living here it represents the arrival of invaders who imposed laws and a foreign culture on their people.

Exactly what is planned has yet to be formalised but it is hoped that it is something that is acceptable to both cultures to commemorate the two hundred and fiftieth anniversary of that historic moment in 2020.  At present, the landing  place is marked by a simple plaque attached to a very ordinary stone monument.

In recent times, other monuments to Cook and the British establishment of a penal colony in Australia have been vandalized with slogans such as  " change the date " and " No pride in genocide " painted on the visual surfaces.  There is a hard core of Indigenous people who refuse to recognise that Australia is now the property of the twenty-four million people who have Australian citizenship.  They promote the catch cry " Aboriginal land.  Always was.  Always will be " !

From a practical point of view, that is tilting at windmills.  There is no doubt that the British arrived here uninvited, but it is also a fact that they established their colony by force of arms.  They were cruel and inhuman to the prisoners that they came to guard and there is no doubt that genocide was inflicted on some Indigenous people.  Those events are consigned to history and both the victims and the perpetrators have been dead for scores of years.

The Aboriginal people of Australia are very much a part of that twenty-four million that call this country home and they are entitled to the rewards that its success delivers.  That does not mean that they must abandon their culture or their aboriginality.   The country can not go back to the way of life they lived in 1770 because the world is now different to that period.  The only way forward is a form of integration, and with good will on both sides that is possible.

That historic day in 1770 saw the old and the new Australia come face to face.  We still have a way to go before all our Indigenous people have the lifestyle this nation offers but that is progressing and it will be achieved. Indigenous people are represented in all walks of life and what is now important is the improvement to health culture and the extension of educational opportunities to widely dispersed Aboriginal young people.

It is hoped that the plan to create this commemoration of Cook's landing will be a joint venture between both cultures.  This is now a shared land and it is important that it be a prosperous country in a troubled world, and that will only happen if we settle our differences and accept that we are a united people.

What happened in the past is a matter for the history books, but Cook was part of that culture and his arrival can not be ignored.   This commemoration of a historical fact needs to be accepted as the creation of a new Australian nation that equally encompasses those that lived before Cook with those that came after.  Perhaps this is the bridging point that we need to bring together both sides in reconsolidation.

Loan Sharks !

Lending money has always been a risky business and the higher the risk the more the rate of interest will rise.  At the moment, the world money market is offering an exceptionally low return for savings deposited at the banks and consequently house mortgages are at the low end of the usual debt cycle. Borrowers are warned that a return to normal levels can occur with little notice.

This is probably a very good time for major corporations to seek a loan to expand their business. Unfortunately, demand for loans is fairly stagnant because a mood of caution prevails in business circles.  Many are waiting to see how self driving cars and the development of artificial intelligence will change the market place and impact pay levels.

What never changes is the needs of societies lower strata to borrow money to eke out daily living expenses.  A century ago that was served by pawnbrokers shops.  The borrower presented something of value and the pawnbroker advanced a loan representing a small portion of that value for a nominated period of time and at an agreed interest rate.  If the customer repaid the loan on time they reclaimed that item, and if they didn't the pawnbroker was free to offer it for public sale for near its true value.

The pawnbroker trade fell out of favour and was replaced by small lending agencies offering personal loans.  Desperate people were forced to borrow at usurious interest rates and the trade was closely connected with underworld enforcers, who often used violence to collect payment arrears.  Often the same borrowers kept adding to their debt until it reached unmanageable proportions.

Credit entered a new age when the Australian banks entered the Bankcard era.  New credit cards were showered on the population, which quickly divided into those who could manage debt and those who could not. This new debt vehicle quickly replaced the " Hire-Purchase " system, colloquially termed the " never-never " !

In recent times the fast loan business has emerged with the new titles of " Pay day loans " and " Money recyclers ".  These are shop front businesses which either dispense cash on credit or offer to buy goods at a fraction of their price in similar manner to the old pawnbroker trade.  They are subjected to government interest rate legislation.

Now we are facing a new enticement.  Machines - similar in appearance to the banks ATM's - are appearing in retail premises which offer on the spot loans.   The borrower needs to enter identification and if accepted the machine dispenses a credit card with the agreed loan value embedded in its operational chip.  The offer runs to loans of a thousand dollars.

There is a danger that the ease with which money can be obtained will see debt roar out of hand and ensnare the population percentage who are susceptible to turning to money lenders to finance their weekly shortfalls.  The credit rates charged are always onerous and debts can quickly become unpayable.   This form of credit has moved beyond providing financial assistance.   It is fast emerging as a money trap from which the unsuspecting can not hope to escape.  Banning these machines is simply saving vulnerable people from their own poor judgement.

Consumer Protection Laws !

There seems to be a vast chasm in how consumer protection laws are interpreted in regard to the value of the faulty item.  If you have the misfortune to buy a dud  toaster what are called " the three R's " kick in uncompromisingly.  Refund - Replacement or Repair - and that is entirely the choice of the customer.

But if the complaint involves the second biggest purchase item in the average customer's life - after the purchase of a home - the law becomes astonishingly vague.  Car manufacturers present a united front in denying that " three R " solution.  They procrastinate and often deny any fault exists but usually have their dealer carry out a repair, with the car providing no service to its owner while that is taking place. In some cases the complaint is ongoing because the problem persists.

Such was the case with Ford vehicles from 2015.  Cars fitted with " Power shift transmission " brought complaints of extreme clutch shudder, noisy transmission and jerky acceleration, making them hard to drive.  Ford told its customers that this was not their fault and were reluctant to provide solutions.  The complaint lingered on for ten months and some owners received more than one clutch replacement.  The Federal court found that Ford's conduct was serious and that the car owners suffered economic and non-economic harm by way of  inconvenience, stress and frustration. The court fined Ford ten million dollars.

Considering the size of the car industry, that ten million dollars probably represents about one dollar per car for the Ford output during that 2015 year.  In other words, a rap across the knuckles - with a feather.   The public have long called for what are termed "Lemon laws " to apply to car manufacturers.   They want the right to hand back for refund where a new car is consistently faulty and that has been dodged by our politicians.

It is not hard to see why ?   We used to have a car manufacturing industry in this country and a lemon law would have been anathema to its profits.  We were begging them to stay because of the jobs they provided, and our politicians were not about to rock the boat with onerous consumer protection laws.

That was then - and this is now !  The world car trade competes for our custom and the proverbial boot is on the other foot.  From time to time a car manufacturer finds that a component proves faulty - as was the case with that PST transmission - and must restore trust by fixing the fault - and that can be expensive.  Without adequate consumer protection laws, that loss is suffered by the retail customer.

There should be protection in place and the world car industry must accept that obligation when they decide to market their product in this country.  There is now absolutely no valid reason why cars should not be included in consumer protection laws.

Blackouts !

There is growing concern that we may lack sufficient power generating capacity to avoid load shedding - and the inevitable blackouts that will cause - in summer demand peaks unless Liddell power station remains on the grid past 2020.  Present plans call for it to close by that date.

Last week we had a major bushfire in Sydney's south-west and it seems that came perilously close to causing a major blackout city wide.  That would have  been a disaster.  The trains would have stopped, isolating people and shutting down commerce.  The lack of traffic lights would have created chaos on the roads and the entire hospital system would have had to depend on generators to keep life preserving equipment running.

Sadly, there is a strong suspicion that fire was deliberately lit.   It roared through the bush that makes this city such a delightful place to live and threatened the 330-kilovolt transmission lines that bring electricity into the city.  We were only saved because transmission engineers managed to juggle the load by reducing distribution and they freely admit that luck played a major part.

While this fire did not burn down the transmission lines, the heat raised the air temperature around the wires, making it harder for them to transmit power.  At the same time soot and ash settled on the lines, causing micro arcing and bringing the system close to closing down to prevent lasting damage. Once the system trips and shuts down, restarting is a delicate and lengthy process - and this fire persisted for several days.

It is said that trees are the " lungs of the city " and we guard them carefully, but there must be a degree of logic in the way they are balanced.  The ground under high voltage transmission lines is kept completely bare as a fire precaution, but this fire made it obvious that this is insufficient.  The forest on each side of that bare strip needs further thinning and it should have high priority for remedial burning to reduce the fuel load.

Last summer broke a lot of temperature records and it seems that the hot part of the year starts earlier and last many weeks longer.  As a consequence, we face a longer bushfire season and we need to plan fire safety accordingly.  What was sufficient in the past will not meet our needs in the future.

We need a comprehensive plan to manage the dense stands of bush that still separate suburbs.  Our fire fighting services know where fire breaks will enable them to isolate fires and stop them roaring unchecked into suburban housing and they need legislation to make that happen.  Such a plan will not be popular with some sections of the public, but we saw what can happen in both Hobart and Canberra several decades ago and fire danger has since increased.

Perhaps last weeks fire was a timely warning.  Whether we believe in global warming or not, fire is delivering a greater danger each summer and we had better re-plan our defences.  If we fail to do that, we will pay a price in lost homes - and lost lives !

Royalty !

There is something absurd in the process that determines who will one day sit on the throne of England and assume the title of King or Queen.  That person must be a member of the " Royal " family and be foremost in the pecking order of line of birth.  A baby boy born this week will take his place fifth in line for that honour.

All the citizens of the United Kingdom are expected to bow or curtsy to their monarch and yet a seat on the throne is something denied to them.  The history books depict the tortuous family history of the monarchy as it was beset by civil war, invasion and religious conflict that saw kings beheaded and replaced by popular acclaim from overseas royalty.  That line was broken many times in its journey to the present Monarch.

At the start of the twentieth century, most of the countries of Europe were headed by their own royal line but the numbers have dwindled.  The few remaining have assumed a more collegial relationship with their subjects and abandoned the rigid formality of office.   Even the reigning house of Windsor in Britain has shed some of the formality that was so evident just half a century ago.

Perhaps the biggest change is the dissolution of the old British empire.  When the twentieth century dawned whoever sat on the throne of Britain formally ruled the countries marked in red on the world map.  Today, most have moved to a public vote to select a president and maintain a friendly cohesion by inclusion in a Commonwealth of nations.  Those nations are self governing and many accept the British legal system as the basis of justice in their courts.

It seems an anarchism that this must be a living person.   In legal documents and in the phraseology of the courts the ruling factor is referred to as " the Crown " and it could be equally represented by the jewelled adornment worn by the Monarch at coronation.   Such an object held in a display case in Canberra could serve that purpose equally well in Australia.

It seems inevitable that this country will eventually make the move to replace the British Crown with an Australian head of state.  What form that will take will be controversial and it seems certain that it will be after the reign of the 92 year old Queen Elizabeth ends.  There is a deep respect for the Queen in this country and the matter of a head of state will encounter political turbulence.

Protocol demands that Queen Elizabeth will be followed by Prince Charles and that may stir opposition.  Charles is old and eccentric and many people would favour the more vivacious William and Kate, but that would require an abdication to become reality - and that seems unlikely.

Any far thinking bookmaker would probably give attractive odds that little Prince George will never be king of Australia !

Driving Licenses - and Age !

When is the right age to hand in your driving license - for your own safety and the safety of others ? There is no hard and fast rule here in New South Wales, but the RMS has the legal right to cancel a drivers license if they decide the holder no longer has the capacity to safely drive on the states roads.  They can insist on a driving test to determine driving ability.

Older drivers in this state must obey graded license requirements.  From age 80 they are required to have a doctor conduct a medical examination each year and certify their fitness to drive and from 85 they are required to have both this medical evaluation and be tested behind the wheel by a RMS driving evaluator.

The RMS may allows an aged driver to continue driving, but with restrictions. These may range from a ban on night driving to limitations relating to the drivers home and proximity to nearby shops.  He or she may be banned from driving on high speed highways or from the heavy traffic of the inner city.

Age can certainly cause a drivers road skills to deteriorate and dementia is a growing hazard.  Often it is family members who are growing concerned about their aged members driving lapses and in some states doctors have a mandatory duty to recommend license withdrawal if they consider holding a driving license poses a continuing danger.   The medical profession generally dislikes that responsibility because it can be very disruptive to the close relationship between doctor and patient.

The number of aged drivers is increasing sharply as the car becomes an ever more important means of personal mobility.  In March 2018 there were 167,721 drivers 80 years or over licensed to drive on NSW roads, and this was an increase on the 136,140 registered in 2013.   Ten years ago the numbers represented only 98,280 drivers.

We often read of accidents where an older person mistook the accelerator for the brake.  The ravages of diabetes can cause the loss of feeling in the legs and an otherwise mentally alert person may lack the physical capability to control a car.  Sight and hearing deteriorate with age and every year the traffic volume increases measurably as the Australian population moves past twenty-four million.

This is not something to which a hard and fast rule can apply.   Driving ability can deteriorate markedly from one year to the next despite that annual medical check being a very comprehensive evaluation - and which includes eye sight testing.

Perhaps certification for a shorter period may be helpful.   Where a person qualifies to drive but physical deterioration is evident a six month license continuation would ensure a timely re-evaluation - and perhaps deliver a message to that driver that his or her driving days were coming to an end.  It would tend to deliver that message more gently than an abrupt cancellation.

" Grenfell Towers " Long Shadow !

On June 14, 2017 we watched television footage of a London housing tower enveloped in fire as flames consumed its outer cladding, resulting in the death of seventy-one of its residents.   We quickly learned that this became known as the Grenfell Tower tragedy and that many buildings spread across the world were clad in a similar dangerous product.

As we head nearer to the first anniversary of those deaths it seems remarkable that the city of Sydney has 412 buildings that have been identified as clad with this risky product and that 170 of those are residential buildings and 53 are described as high rise.   The people living in those apartments go to bed each night aware that they risk burning to death in a similar manner to that London tragedy.

This week we had a law change to building regulations that covered flammable exterior cladding.  Its presence on a building is now regarded as a " major defect ", giving the unit owner the right to demand rectification for up to six years after the building is completed.  Of course, that supposes the builder is still in business and has the financial capacity to finance the work that needs to be done.

Removing the existing cladding from a building and fitting a replacement can cost an enormous amount of money and it now seems likely that this will be reflected in property prices.  Owners  selling are now offering property subject to a major defect and it is reported that in London one such owner had a $475,000 unit price devalued to just $ 50,000 because of that defect.

The banks and finance houses may also get skittish because it seems doubtful that the insurance industry will insure buildings with this hazard class and most forms of finance require insurance cover as part of the contract.  In particular, buyers who made the purchase on an investment basis will be hardest hit.

Responsibility for rectification is still a legal enigma.  Flammable exterior cladding does not meet the relevant building regulations and that encompasses architects, councils and the building company that constructed the building, plus the supplier who either made or imported the material used.   That could be a nightmare if a contested case goes to court and some unfortunate judge has the job of pinpointing the bunny who has to foot the replacement bill.

Many councils are shivering in their shoes because the building regulations require councils to certify that all new buildings in their area meet the required regulations and to issue a certificate that they are fit for human habitation.  Clearly, buildings with a flammable exterior do not meet that challenge.

It is unfortunate owners who bought their units in good faith who are bearing the brunt of this debacle.  Not only are they living with an unacceptable  fire risk but the very price stability of their greatest asset may crumble before their eyes.   Eventually, the cost of rectification may rest on their shoulders.

This can not be left passing from hand to hand like the proverbial hot potato. Grenfell Tower proved that tragedy can happen and sooner or later luck will run out in another world city.

Britain's " Pearl Harbour " !

On October 14, 1939, just after the start of the second world war, Britain suffered a serious naval disaster that gave Germany a propaganda victory.  In the fog of war it is hard to determine the precise details but a German U-Boat managed to penetrate Scapa Flo, the home base of the Royal Navy in the Orkney islands at the tip of Scotland, and sink a British battleship.

The Captain of U-Boat  U-47 had a family connection that saw him holiday at Scapa Flo between the wars. Gunther Prien noted that the base was also the home of fishing trawlers and to avoid opening the defence boom constantly to allow them passage the navy had permitted a small opening between the sunken block ships that guarded the five entrances to Scapa Flo.

When war between Britain and Germany started Prien joined the navy and was given command of U-47.  He suggested to Admiral Karl Doenitz that he thought a U-Boat could scrape through this narrow entrance and was given permission to make the attempt.  It was a daring strategy and the only attempt at disguise was to paint out the big identification letters on the conning tower.  Submarines of all nations looked remarkably similar.

U-47 approached in broad daylight, on the surface.  Farmers in the field noticed the submarine but assumed it was British, and it was not challenged.  Prien sailed openly up the waterway and then submerged and lay on the bottom, waiting for darkness.  When he later approached the area which was the naval base he was utterly shocked to find it completely empty.  He had expected to find battleships, cruisers and perhaps aircraft carriers but the warships had put to sea in the expectation of a German air attack on the base.

Searching this broad base of water he eventually came across an old battleship riding at anchor.  This was HMS Royal Oak, a first world war battleship that had been originally coal fired and later converted to oil. It was twenty-five years old and long past its prime, being capable of only twenty-one knots it was incapable of keeping up with modern fleet actions.  It was now something of a training ship and amongst its 1234 person crew were many juvenile boys leaning a sea trade.

U-47 fired four torpedoes at Royal Oak.   Three missed and the fourth failed to explode, but crashed into the ships side and brought many on deck to investigate.  Finding no visible cause, they returned to bed and Prien moved U-47 closer and fired two more torpedoes from his stern tubes.

This later attack was brilliantly successful.  The explosions tore gaping holes and started a fuel fire ,and within minutes the battleship rolled on her side and sunk, killing 833 of her crew.  U-47 quickly withdrew to her entry point and successfully returned to Germany.   Prien and his crew received a heros welcome.   They were feted in Berlin and awarded the highest decorations.  The attack was regarded as an epic victory and fully publicised by the Nazi propaganda industry.

But for sheer good luck the Royal navy might have suffered a defeat similar to the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbour.  An enemy  submarine in a crowded harbour might have sunk enough warships to cripple the Home Fleet and altered the balance of the naval war.   Scapa Flo received an urgent update of its defence facilities and later in the war Gunther Prien and his crew were attacking at Atlantic convoy when depth charges sent U-47 to a watery grave.

A Sick Joke !

This banking Royal Commission has revealed blatant crime by the very banking industry that is the cornerstone of our financial system.  When a bank steals money from our wallets, is that any different from a bandit who sticks a gun in our ribs and robs us in a street holdup ?   The difference is that this guy with a gun usually gets caught and is sent to prison for a few years.  It seems unlikely that anyone in the banking fraternity is looking at a prison stretch as a result of these disclosures.

There is talk that heads may roll at both board level and in the corner suites of banking institutions, but that means the bandits walk away with their superannuation cheques and may even get a gratuity bonus to speed them on their way.   These were crimes that occurred under their control.  What happened to the notion of management responsibility  ?

These crimes were calculated - and deliberate !   The litany seems endless.  Customers were billed for services they never received and in many cases the deceased had spurious charges added to their accounts years after their death.  Financial advice was in many cases simply disastrous.  People lost both their homes and businesses and yet these corrupt advisers remained spreading their evil message year after year.  Every opportunity to hike fees and charges to inflate the bottom line was taken and the banks moved in lockstep to gouge under the guise of respectability.

What we are hearing is draconian penalties for any future malfeasance.  There are threats to impose billions in fines if any of this ever occurs again, but it looks like that those who headed the various levels where this banditry originated will  survive.   It seems like that " too big to fail " principle is being invoked.  The people who cooked up these nefarious schemes are too important to banking to be sacked and so they must get a slap on the wrist - and be reformed.   They will not be made to pay for their crimes.

This Royal Commission has also shone the light on those regulatory bodies tasked with supervising the banking industry and preventing just this sort of shenanigans.  What we are seeing in our banking industry is similar to the corruption in the world banking industry that resulted in the 2008 world recession.   The banks began bundling home mortgages into what they called " derivatives " and selling them as investment opportunities, aided by the credit checking agencies which bestowed them with triple A credit ratings.   We are still fighting off the effects of that disaster.

Those regulatory agencies failed - and they must pay a price.  In 2008 neither the credit agencies nor the banks suffered the consequences of their actions.  In fact they were bailed out with public money, and what we are seeing in this Royal Commission is one of the results of the lack of public accounting for that integrity loss.   The banks lost their fear of the regulatory agencies, which lost the will to do their jobs properly.

About time for a clean out of both parties.  We will not have honest banking until the decision makers fear the regulators - and know the consequences of an integrity breach will bring personal dismissal.

Living with the Past !

The zeal with which statues of General Robert E Lee are being removed from town squares in the American south seems to be an attempt to rewrite history.  The descendants of the slaves that worked the cotton plantations of that era claim that monuments to the Confederate states are offensive reminders of a war fought to keep them in servitude.

There seems to be an attitude to try and forget that the American civil war ever happened.  The war dead of the winning side are honoured while memorials to the southern soldiers who gave their lives are being put out of sight and their sacrifice disregarded.   General Lee was a hero to the people of the south and now he is being dishonoured.  His place in history belongs in the history books alongside General Ulysses Grant, his counterpoint from the north.

Perhaps the focal point of the American civil war is what happened thereafter.   The industrial north conquered the agrarian south, and yet a hundred years later those emancipated slaves were still denied the vote, segregated in their schools and not allowed to use white only wash rooms or eat alongside whites in restaurants.  That ushered in the " civil rights era " and a new civil war was fought on the streets, with billy clubs and vicious dogs doing battle to preserve segregation.

Strangely, all that was right after we celebrated the end of the second world war.  We imposed " unconditional; surrender " on Germany and Japan and both countries were " occupied ".   We wrote a new Japanese constitution in which future war was forbidden.  Japan openly honours its war dead and its main shrine is heavily criticised because some executed war criminals are interred there.

Germany suffered a division between the victorious west and the encroaching hordes of Communist Russia and the German people were aghast when the crimes of Hitler's Nazis were revealed.  This country has gone to great lengths to preserve the memorials to the Holocaust and safeguard its memory.  Both Germany and Japan are now robust trading nations long removed from the odium of the second world war.

What seems to be forgotten about the American civil war was that the contestants were American citizens on both sides, and when the war ended, the survivors were still American citizens. We may argue about the issues over which the war was fought, but what can not be contested is that both sides fought a noble battle for what they perceived to be the best interests of their American homeland.

There is something unreal in the names of citizens who founded some of America's great institutions being removed from buildings and vilified - because at some time in the distant past they owned slaves.  Some of the founding fathers owned slaves and that was as normal as punishing a servant with lashes for neglect of duty.   We can not apply the customs of the present to the past and extract  retribution for wrong doing.

The American civil war is best left as it was since the last shot was fired.  Each side fondly remembers its dead with reverence and today those battles are re-enacted and the tactics hotly discussed.   Those agitating for the removal of civil war memorabilia are doing their country a grave disservice !

The " Taiwan " Question !

A very long time ago the whole western military strategy was concentrated on stopping Communism advancing from both China and the Soviet Union and to this end America guaranteed Taiwan protection from a Chinese Communist invasion.  General Chiang Kia  Shek was the loser in a Chinese civil war and he retreated to the island of Formosa, which was renamed Taiwan.

Today Taiwan is a heavily armed fortress which is successfully trading with the rest of the world. Communism imploded in the Soviet Union and China has emerged as a capitalist economy trading under the iron fist of what can only be described as a Communist dictatorship.  To trade with China, the rest of the world needs to kow tow to the Chinese claim that Taiwan is simply a " renegade province ".   China claims that eventually it will reclaim this island, by force if necessary.

China has recently devoted a bigger share of its trading surplus to developing a blue water navy capable of matching American sea power and the two powder kegs where these forces may collide are the South China sea - and Taiwan.  China claims sovereignty by virtue of man made islands in the South China sea and this has been rejected by the International law of the sea.   Should China seek to  control ship movements through this international waterway a military confrontation would be inevitable.

Taiwan is an enigma that has been losing a diplomatic battle with its giant neighbour.  Other nations can have diplomatic relations with just one, and not both.   China has used this to force Taiwan from membership of world bodies and its democratic form of government is a constant irritation to China's Communist leadership.  China openly claims that should Taiwan declare independence it would immediately reclaim the island using military force.

Taiwan's president, Tsai Ing-wen heads a party with independence on its manifesto but which is not pressing that as an issue at present.  In the past, the United States has sailed aircraft carriers and other warships through the Taiwan strait between the island and the mainland as a show of force to back its guarantee of protection for Taiwan.   That was a credible deterrent when China  fielded a massive land army and had merely coastal sea power.  Today, that sea power balance is approaching - marginal.

China is flexing its muscles by holding live fire exercises in the Taiwan strait.  This is clearly a form of intimidation, possibly more intended to test American resolve than to seriously threaten the Taiwanese government.  Taiwan is heavily armed with American made defence equipment but would be unlikely to win a long term war with its giant neighbour.   In the event of conflict, American assistance would be pivotal.

Should conflict emerge between China and Taiwan it would clearly present America with a crucial decision and much would depend on how that conflict originated.  The world pays lip service to that " one China " claim and should Taiwan declare independence world opinion could support China. It would be a huge step to go to war over what many would see as an internal matter of political control within the Chinese federation.

The days when Communism was seen as seeking world domination are long gone.  Perhaps many past treaties have lost their relevance !

Rotten - to the Core !

When the average person walks out the door for the last time with a superannuation check in his or her pocket that magic world of retirement depends on being able to wisely make the money last until life's end.  Most people seek the advice of a retirement planner because we are led to believe that this is a magic world where skilled people have the knowledge to place our money to gain the greatest advantage.  We trust that they will act in our best interest.

We have long been aware that all is not well in this financial world.  We hear lurid stories of funds invested in shonky investment companies that promise amazing returns, only for the capital to vanish into offshore tax havens from which all traces simply vanish.  We are advised to choose our advisor carefully and to that end the big four banks and a number of former insurance companies advertise their expertise and proudly nominate the huge sums of money under their management.

 This Royal Commission into banking practice has shone the light onto lies and misconduct at the highest level.  The very people who promise integrity have been robbing us by charging fees for services that are not provided and in many cases placing our money where it delivers a high commission to the counsellor's company, at the expense of the contributors return.

There has been a vast change in retirement schemes in the past half century.  Retirement used to involve a monthly pension cheque from the employers pension fund closely related to the salary level attained at retirement.   Today an employer and the employee jointly contribute to a retirement " pot " that the employee needs to manage once he or she leaves the firm.   How long the money lasts depends entirely on how well it is invested.

We have just been made aware that the AMP has also been involved in serious corporate dishonesty. The AMP used to be one of this countries foremost insurance companies and this Royal Commission has disclosed conduct similar to that of the banks.  The overwhelming impression gained is that size and advertised integrity of firms offering retirement investment advice bears no relation to the sagacity and honesty of the services they provide.

It is becoming evident that the various government supervisory boards put in place to supervise the banks and general investment industry have failed to detect and control corporate misfeasance that extends to the highest level.   There is an obvious need for heads to roll - in both the bodies that have been breaking laws and in the supervisors that have let this happen.   It should have been apparent at all levels that the billions the banks were reaping year after year was a certain indication that usurious practices were taking place somewhere in the system.

Unfortunately, there is no guarantee that what is needed will emerge from this banking fiasco.  The new regime that will supervise how the money market deals with investments will need to be crafted by the parliament and it is more likely that this will be beset by parliamentary infighting and political positioning than dealing with the needs of the general public.

There is a real danger that if the supervision becomes draconian, planners will be so adverse to risk that even adequate investment returns will become impossible.  Putting together investment practice and the supervisory level to keep it honest needs the cooperation of all sides of the parliamentary aisle.  The only way that will happen is if the general public apply enough pressure to bend the politicians to their will.

Having enough retirement money to live on is a matter of survival !

That " Legal Cannabis " Issue !

For the first time a political party that has members seated in the Australian Federal parliament is advocating a law change to make Marijuana legal for personal use here.  The Greens have only a tiny toe hold in our legislative process and legalising Cannabis is stridently opposed by both the main political parties, but it seems that world events are moving in that direction.

Several American states have opposed the laws of their Federal government and legislated to allow the sale of Cannabis for personal use.  It delivers a euphoria similar to alcohol and research claims that it is no more addictive than this other legal product.  For decades it has been the most widely traded illicit drug in Australia and there can be few young people who have not at one time or another tried smoking a " joint " !

It is now decriminalized in Uruguay, Canada and Spain where it delivers tax at the similar rate to tobacco.  It was perfectly legal in Australia about seventy years ago, but when heroin use attracted headlines a drug panic saw it legally withdrawn from the hippie movement which was growing and smoking it.   The lure of any " forbidden " product made it a natural target for supply by the crime fraternity.

Police efforts to control marijuana have been a failure. Despite regular busts it is freely available in most city suburbs from dealers who are not hard to find.  About 75,000 Australians are arrested each year for Cannabis offences and now those caught with a small quantity are simply released with a caution.   Many people consider than Cannabis should be treated separately to " hard " drugs, which include opiates, heroin, cocaine and LSD.

Legalization is opposed by the medical profession but our medicos are well known for their conservatism.  It took ages for our feet dragging politicians to legalise medical cannabis, but still only a tiny proportion are writing scripts despite the proven benefits it delivers.  This same conservative profession is still writing scripts for opiates despite the destruction this highly addictive drug is causing.

The movement to legalize cannabis contends that it could deliver a huge tax benefit to a cash strapped state and it would break the nexus between hard drugs and what they see as a mild intoxicant that delivers no more harm than is legally available from alcohol.  Making it legal would also destroy the argument that marijuana is a link to the use of more serious drugs.  This contends that when police activity halt the cannabis flow users are tempted to use other, harder drugs pushed on them by the dealers.  As a legal product, marijuana would not encounter supply shortages.

It is hard to see any legal change gaining momentum in Canberra on an Australian wide basis unless a small state like Tasmania grasps the challenge as a way of enhancing their tourist trade.  Their pubs adopted ten pm closing decades before the eastern states, which persisted with the " six o'clock swill " and Tassie was the first to legalise a casino in Australia.   It also delivered off course betting long before the eastern states brought in the TAB.

What is unmistakably evident is that opposition to marijuana is fading on the world scene.  The only thing that can reliably be said  about cannabis legislation is " never say never "  !

Bushfire Threat !

This past weekend we had a serious bushfire in Sydney's south west that crossed Heathcote road and pushed into the Georges river national park, forcing homeowners from Menai to Alfords point to evacuate in the face of a storm of burning embers.  This was a major fire and it had the potential to sweep out of control and destroy whole suburbs.

Our fire fighting services deployed convoys of fire fighting vehicles and personnel were stretched to the limit to bring this fire under control and once again the turning point was often the efforts of massive aircraft bombing the fire front with tonnes of fire suppressant, together with helicopters delivering water where it was most needed.  Along with residents who remained to protect their properties, this fire saw the deployment of several thousand firefighters who risked their lives in this emergency situation.

The cost is yet to be estimated.  It was a mix of paid fire fighters and the heroic volunteer brigades who train and give their time for free and those massive aircraft cost thousands of dollars an hour to deploy, but the end result was no homes lost and no deaths.  It is sad to realise that the most probable cause of that fire was some idiot with a match who deliberately set it ablaze for their own personal satisfaction.

It is not unusual for some unfortunate people to lose their lives in bushfires in which case the firebug could be charged with homicide, but that rarely seems to happen.  At best the charge would be " manslaughter " because that death was not premeditated because the outcome of the fire would be unknown.

The chances of tracking down the culprit are constantly improving.  More homes have security cameras and more cars have dashcams which can reveal anybody suspiciously leaving the start of a fire scene, and fire investigators have the ability to accurately determine the starting point of fires. This is a crime that needs a definitive punishment as a deterrent.  Unfortunately, the fire starters are often children seeking excitement, or adults suffering from mental illnesses. It is a fact of life that sane people do not light bushfires.

Lightening strikes are the cause of some fires, but in many cases it is human carelessness.   A discarded cigarette butt or an unwisely placed camp fire, but the hot exhaust of a car pulled off the road into dry grass can start a blaze.   We urge caution, but we will never be free of summer wild fires and the damage they cause.

We should be thankful for the volunteers that respond to these emergencies, together with the support helpers who setup relief stations which supply sandwiches and cold drinks to sustain the firefighters,  In this latest fire the  Kirrawee veterinary hospital used social media to offer care for the pets of those forced to evacuate. They made their facilities free for forty-eight hours to relieve the strain of finding care for pets when an emergency evacuation was in place, and that must have been a great relief to many people.

Bushfires have always been part of the Australian summer scene.  What is heartening is the community response that comes together when danger threatens.

Are Prisons an Asset !

Plans have been announced to build a new prison on vacant land at Kembla Grange in the city of Wollongong.  The idea is having a mixed reception as nearby residents ponder whether it will increase or decrease land values and what sort of danger the concentration of convicted criminals housed in the community will deliver.

Prison is supposed to be a place of rehabilitation, where prisoners learn the error of their ways and earn privileges on the way to their release.  The newly convicted start their prison life in maximum security and are constantly moved to break dangerous relationships, but these conditions are slowly relaxed as their time of release nears.   Usually, they are allowed day release so prisoners are  accustomed to earning a living before the prison gates shut behind them and they re-enter the community on parole.

New South Wales has been experimenting with what are called " Pop-up Prisons " and it is unclear if that is what is proposed for Kembla Grange.  In that concept each prison group lives in " pods " in which about twenty-five prisoners experience communal living.   There are no individual cells and prisoners are collectively housed together with individual living space which contains a bed, toilet, desk and audio screen.  There are no doors and prisoners are free to move about within such pods, but the arrangement is overseen by guards on a mezzanine floor which overlooks each pod.

In the distant past prisons usually used inmates for tasks such as stamping out car number plates or in some jurisdictions, working on chain gangs to create new roads.   Today, the emphasis is on education and improving the prisoners ability to earn a living.   Very few are serving a sentence which requires them to die in jail and so even the worst offenders will eventually serve in the general prison population.

Rehabilitation is enhanced if a strong bond exists with loved ones and the ability to receive visits is important.  Having a prison in a city with road and rail links to the rest of the state is far preferable than a remote country location where such visits are difficult.  Being transferred to a prison near family can be an important reward for continuing good behaviour.

Many communities regard a nearby prison as a desirable asset.   It is a good source of well paid jobs and usually prison officers reside locally.   The needs of such an institution provide a wealth of work and supply for the various industries of the region and so a prison presence is favoured locally.  If this new prison is rejected by Wollongong it will be eagerly sought by other municipalities.

The only thing surprising is that the prison location is on the Kembla Grange flood plain which is also attracting new housing.  If global warming results in rising sea levels this will be the first part of the Illawarra to face inundation.  It does beg the question as to whether state planning takes global warming dangers seriously.

Global Warming !

Donald Trump in America and Tony Abbott in Australia think global warming is " crap " !  A lot of other world leaders at least pay lip service to the coming danger but hesitate to put in place the legislation needed to turn back the tide.   The scientific community tell us we are fast approaching the " point of no return "   That rising sea levels are now inevitable !

If we haven't made up our mind on this matter we might do well to get a map of the world, put it on the wall, and sit back and give the matter some thought.   The first thing that becomes apparent is that water covers a vast area of the surface of planet earth and we humans live on just five basic great land masses protruding from that ocean.

They are north America and South America, Africa, Australia - and the biggest of them all is that great continent that encompasses Europe, Asia and the Middle east and has the biggest concentration of citizens.   To the far north and south we have the Arctic and AntArctic, which just happen to store our biggest supply of fresh drinking water.

Every one of those continents has at least one major river which name is familiar to us.  In North America it is the Mississippi.  In South America the Amazon. In Africa the Congo.  In Russia the Volga and in that great European/Asia land mass we have the Nile, The Yangtze, the Mekong, the Ganges,and the Brahmaputra.  In Australia we have the Murray.

The first of humankind settled beside those rivers and used the water to irrigate their crops.  Each river had is headwaters in a mountain range and flows to the sea.  The surrounding land is the bread basket of the world and sees the greatest concentration of the people of this earth.

It is now apparent that the ice of the Arctic and AntArctic are melting and the great ice sheets of Greenland will soon contribute to rising sea levels.  As the sea levels rise the flow of these great rivers will be reversed.  Salty seawater will intrude further inland and the agriculture the rivers sustained will be lost.  We face a coming world famine. The land inundation will see great masses of people forced to relocate to higher - less productive - ground.   It will create a new world refugee problem.

The other danger is that northern parts of Alaska, Canada and Russia never thaw.  The land maintains permafrost through each summer, but rising temperatures are reversing that trend.  If the soil thaws it will reveal dead animals and humans from the distant past and they may contain the bacteria of diseases that have fortunately died out on this planet.  We could see a repeat of the " Spanish flu " that swept the earth in the 1920's and killed millions.

It doesn't take the mind of Einstein to connect the dots.  Most of the worlds great rivers start their journey to the sea fed by melting glaciers and the melt of winter snow.  It is quite clear the glaciers are failing and each year winter brings less snow.  As the river flow diminishes, rising sea levels will reverse that flow inland with salty water, and that is inimical to agriculture.

Politicians are a self serving lot.   Many choose to disbelieve because the measures necessary to avoid catastrophe would be unpopular with the voters and they will have departed from office when it happens.  A little time studying that world map and giving it intelligent thought to what  inertia has in store for us would be helpful.

A Risky Venture !

Keeping the lights on in Japan relies heavily on coal.   This populous nation is located on the " ring of fire " where tectonic plates collide and earthquakes are common.   The option of using nuclear energy to generate power received a setback when a quake and the tsunami it caused wrecked a nuclear power plant and the released radioactivity poisoned the nearby countryside and caused a town to be evacuated.

Australia is becoming one of the worlds biggest exporters of coal and we are selling it to countries to fuel their power generators.  This is the very opposite of our stated need to reduce the amount of carbon dioxide in the air and keep global warming in check, but coal is a source of Australian jobs and it is a big contributor to our export economy.

Australia's coal reserves are a mixed lot.  We have very high grade coal suitable for industry in New South Wales and Queensland while Victorian and Tasmanian coalfields consist of the lesser " brown coal ".   This is unwanted overseas but Victorian electricity generators burn it to produce electricity and it was converted into briquettes when home heating used combustion stoves in the southern states.

Wind and solar are on the increase and Victoria's coal fired power generators are closing, and that means job losses in the massive Latrobe Valley.  This has resulted in an Australian/Japanese joint venture to turn Victorian brown coal into hydrogen gas for export to Japan as fuel for power generation.

To that end, we have just seen politicians make speeches at the inauguration of a $ 495 million pilot project to extract hydrogen gas from brown coal.  If obstacles can be overcome this will result in a whole new industry running in tandem with our natural gas exports and much of the Japanese power industry will be served by this Australian gas.

The sticking point seems to be overcoming " obstacles " - and the big question is whether hydrogen can be produced without also releasing the huge amounts of carbon dioxide contained in coal.  This is particularly prevalent in brown coal because it is brown because of an immaturity in its evolution.  If it were left untouched for a few more million years it would become high grade steaming or coking black coal like its New South Wales counterparts.

This project embraces that old bogey of carbon " capture and storage ", and the final resting place for the carbon dioxide that will be produced is porous rock strata located under the sea in Bass strait - and that poses many problems, not the least of which is how much gas it is capable of holding.  There are a lot of questions remaining.  How the C02 will be safely moved from the gas conversion facility to its final resting places under the waters of Bass strait and what - if any - leakage can be expected.

It also raises another interesting question.  Our success in gas exports - and we will soon be the worlds biggest gas exporter - have raised prices and resulted in a gas shortage on the Australian east coast.   Would it not be wise to quarantine sufficient gas from this new source to ensure that electricity generation in Australia was assured of a reliable base product at a preferable price ?   Presently, our power generators have to compete with overseas demand for the gas they need and this has forced up electricity prices to unhealthy levels.

We made mistakes when we established our natural gas industry.  We are back at the starting point with this new venture.  Let us not make the same mistakes again !

" Energy " Solutions !

Most country towns welcome both an abattoir and a meat processing plant for the jobs they create but are less enthusiastic about the bad smells and disposal methods from the inevitable waste they generate, and a lot of this ends up in the local landfill.

The New South Wales city of Goulburn has such plants and they will soon be self sufficient in electricity and able to contribute energy to the state power grid.   The abattoir and the meat processing factory have partnered with a power generating company to create a biogas facility to use waste generated in the meat trade.

They are spending $5.75 million to build a biogas facility that will use as fuel the waste generated by the food source.   Liquid run-off, fats and other waste from the abattoir and trim discarded by the meat factory will be biologically broken down and putrefied in a covered dam using bacteria.  There is a high degree of flexibility as the liquid containing the biogas can expand when energy demand is low, saving this fuel to supplement the system when demand is high.

Basically, this simply replicates the human digestive process.   When we have a meal the meat and vegetable matter is digested by the bacteria in our stomach as the nutriments are extracted and the waste passed on to the bowel and it is here that methane is produced, and that is a burnable gas.

In this commercial duplication of the human stomach it will pass that methane to two 800 kilowatt generators  that supply the meat plants need and feed the excess into the state power grid.   These generators can also use natural gas for fuel so they can keep producing electricity when the meat plant is shut down for annual maintenance.

That is a substantial saving.  The Goulburn facility consumes about 20,000 kilowatt hours of electricity every working day as it processes sheep and lambs for meat and skins.   This biogas generation replaces the method used by most abattoirs and meat processors in which waste is stored and  treated in a series of ponds, often producing offensive smells until it can be used to irrigate pasture or transferred to a sewer.

We have an ever expanding need for more electricity and global warming is causing us to turn away from coal as the means of generating our electricity needs.   The impetus is on " renewable " sources such as wind and solar, but turning an inevitable waste product into an electricity source is a creative way of harnessing what otherwise goes free to contribute to global warming.

We have a lot of abattoirs and meat plants scattered across Australia.  Methane if an inevitable by-product of the waste they generate.   It makes a lot more sense to turn it into electricity than allow it to putrefy in landfills or in evaporative ponds where in contributes to global warming.

Animal Welfare !

Most Australians would have been repulsed by television news footage of dead and dieing sheep    rammed together in sweltering conditions on ships taking them to the Middle East.  It is reported that two thousand four hundred bodies were progressively dropped overboard for the sharks on a recent voyage.

There are calls for live export of sheep and cattle from Australia to be banned.  Much of the meat we export is destined for the supermarket trade in Europe and the United States and that is a very different proposition.  The animals are slaughtered in an Australian abattoir and the meat processed in air conditioned packing houses before being shipped overseas in refrigerated containers.

The needs of the third world are very different.  Even when homes have refrigerators the power supply is sporadic and so local custom decrees that meat is slaughtered, cooked and eaten within twenty-four hours.  It is customary for families to buy a live sheep at the market, transport it home in the boot of their car and slaughter it in the backyard.   This looks horrific to Australian viewers, but it is common practice in much of the world.

Those scenes on television were probably a worst case scenario.  The shipment in question probably arrived in the Middle East in July or August, the hottest part of the northern hemispheres summer and if the ship encountered rough seas the distress would have been enhanced.   Live export ships are specially constructed vessels designed for profit rather than comfort.  The animals are supposed to be able to access food and water, but the crowding makes this impossible for many.  A ratio of transport deaths is considered part of the economic rationale.

We could enact transport laws to ease the crowding, but that may increase the problem.  Grazing animals are accustomed to a firm surface underfoot.  That is not possible on a ship at sea and closer proximity to others prevents them falling - and being trampled.  Being penned in smaller numbers and with better access to food and water would certainly improve the survival rate.

We could impose loading laws that apply to ships carrying sheep and cattle from Australian ports but the likely outcome would be the trade diverted to the many other countries supplying overseas markets.   Probably the only practical change we can reasonably ensure is improved conditions applying to food and water and restrictions on travel schedules to avoid arrivals in the hottest months.

It would be unreasonable to ban all forms of live export.  This is a legitimate form of Australian trade and with care animals can travel by ship in relative safety.  The exporters have a valid reason for improving the conditions that apply because the more animals that arrive at their destination in good health the better their profit margin.

The answer to this problem is to have sensible laws in place, and for the news media to be watchful in bringing this trade to public attention.

A Growing Threat !

Xi Jinping now has supreme power to direct how China evolves its relationship with the rest of the world.  His " thoughts " are the directives for the Chinese Communist party and yet his plans for China's future are completely inscrutable.

The nations of the South Pacific will have misgivings to learn that China is seeking to establish a military base in Vanuatu. Chinese development money is being lavished on this island chain of just 270,000 people and this proposal would probably proceed in stages.  Firstly, a port where Chinese warships may call to refuel and be resupplied, then perhaps later an airfield.  A Chinese base on a Pacific island would certainly project military power over what is presently very much the preserve of the United States navy.

What is happening in the South China sea delivers a warning.  The Communist party no longer seeks to impose its doctrine on how other countries are governed but it does seek to protect its trading empire with military might.  It is clearly in a race to duplicate the naval and air power of America. That parity is likely to be achieved in a very few short years.

A Chinese intrusion by way of a South Pacific base poses a critical defence question for the smaller Pacific nations.  Most will adopt the stance taken by New Zealand.  They accept that their economy is incapable of financing the huge cost of competitive jet fighter aircraft, submarines and navy ships to form a credible defence force.  New Zealand will therefore be an undefended country, with military forces just capable of undertaking United Nations duties and responding to local emergencies.

Australia - with a population of twenty-four million - is small by world standards but fields the major defence establishment of this area but with a degree of integration with our United States ally.   It seems inevitable that this Chinese intrusion will see an increased United States presence on our soil to counter balance this growing threat.

The danger is that we may not be able to maintain our " arms length " alliance with the US and be driven into a closer military embrace.  The backbone of our defence needs has been the ANZUS treaty which has served us well when world tensions have been growing in other parts of the world, but now we have a military threat on our doorstep.

If China does not succeed with this Vanuatu proposal it seems inevitable that it will establish a base elsewhere.   There are many impoverished little island nations with docking potential and the land for an airstrip.  Chinese largesse to build island infrastructure and improve the way of life of their citizenry make acceptance inevitable.

The imponderable question is knowing just where Xi Jinping intends to take China.   That will not become clear until China achieves parity in military power with its American nemesis, but a military base in our neighbourhood is not good news !

World War Three !

The fear of a nuclear war that may end human life on this planet has not eventuated and for a long time we felt safe sheltering behind the MAD stalemate.   The United States of America and the Soviet Union faced off with huge nuclear arsenals - and the certainty that there would not be a winner because in a nuclear war they were both " Mutually Assured of Destruction ".

That concept still virtually stands as far as the original nuclear powers are concerned, but the nuclear club has widened to include India and Pakistan, Israel and North Korea.  These are unstable parts of the world but acquiring nuclear weapons was probably more a matter of defence than plans for territorial conquest.  We have learned to live in a nuclear armed world.

What should  be concerning us is the increasing use of chemical weapons and this is happening in civil wars.  Countries are quite prepared to use this type of warfare against their own citizens, as we have seen in Iraq and more recently - Syria. All the major powers have researched chemical and biological weapons and if we ever manage to stumble into a third world war there is every probability that they will be used.

Perhaps the greater danger is coming from the intolerance to refugees and the coming dangers the experts are warning us about.  It looks unlikely we will manage to contain global warming and the world will face increasing sea levels, and there is a doubt that as we head to a world population of ten billion that food supplies will be sufficient.   Hunger and privation could send new waves of people swarming across borders in search of relief.

We have seen how quickly compassion turns to anger, and anger into creating obstacles to halt the flow.  Self preservation is a powerful motive and in a world of dwindling living space the tribal instinct for preservation comes to the fore.   Once we are convinced that our way of life is threatened we embrace methods that go against our normal conscience.

Of course all this could be prevented if we managed to bring global warming under control and bring progeny numbers within the range we could afford to feed and educate, but everything from religion to poverty and ignorance is making that impossible.  The survivors are the countries that can feed themselves, and those that can't seem destined to become the homeless.

The use of chemical and biological weapons in civil wars seems to be a warning of what is coming in the future.  Perhaps that  nuclear bogey is the threat that never eventuated !

The " Crap " Exchange !

The ancient Chinese world of medicine had some very brutal remedies for some ailments.  They understood that the human gut contained a vast mix of different strains of bacteria and if a bad strain predominated the answer was to introduce a good strain from someone elses gut.   That dreaded diagnosis was followed by the even more dreaded " yellow soup " treatment.

The world of medicine today knows that this tribal mix of gut bacteria can be disrupted when we take antibiotics for other medical reasons.   The whole point of antibiotics is to kill the bad bugs, but in reality it cuts a swathe through whatever bacteria lives in the gut, both good and bad.   The problem is that we often end up with a completely different tribal mix from whatever survives.

Often this includes a rather nasty species called Clostridium difficile ( C.difficle ) which causes gut inflammation and is thought to be responsible for  ulcerative colitis, Crohn's disease, and irritable bowel syndrome.  It also effects the brain and has been included in research into depression, anxiety, autism, Parkinson's disease, multiple sclerosis and obesity.

The treatment available in the past involved a procedure most people found repulsive.  It involved churning the faeces of a volunteer with good gut bacteria into a slurry and inserting this into the bowel of the person needing treatment by way of a colonoscope or an enema.

Fortunately, this line of medicine has now developed into a very civilized procedure known as a faecal microbiota transplant ( FMT ) which is now practised in a laboratory in Adelaide.  The laboratory needs volunteers to donate a faecal sample - for which they are paid - and from which the good bacteria is extracted and hygienically transferred freeze dried into a soluble capsule.  This is swallowed by the person needing treatment and the bacteria is liberated when the capsule dissolves and thus provides renewal  for the many suffering the wrong mix of gut bacteria.

It seems that this Clostridium difficile is a very common case of gut problems in Australia and we believe that it kills up to one in ten of its victims.   In 2013 the result of a study into this FMT procedure was published in the New England Journal of Medicine, which reported that the study was stopped because the results were found to be dramatic.  It was thought that the transplant was so effective that it was ruled unethical to withhold it from other participants in the study.

Despite the inevitability of toilet humour being attached to this form of treatment, the answer to an unfortunate mix of gut bacteria causing problems for many Australians now has a palatable solution by popping a pill.   The wise will not ponder the content of that pill.

The " Liddell " Question !

The one inescapable fact about the reliability of our power supply during the summer peaks is the necessity of Liddell power station in its present form - or a replacement - to contribute electricity to the grid.  Without that, blackouts are a high probability.

Liddell is one of the last old coal fired power stations and its owners - AGL - intend to close it in 2022 and replace that power output with a new form of generation.  Just what form that will take has not been decided, but pumped hydro is certainly one option. AGL believe that for corporate credibility they need to withdraw from burning coal to generate electricity.

It seems that the Federal government doubts that AGL can get a replacement for Liddell up and running by 2020 and want this plant to continue beyond that date.   There have been threats and the suggestion that AGL sell the plant to a competitor.  AGL is standing firm and can not be legally forced to either sell or keep Liddell open.

This is developing into a dangerous game of brinkmanship.  Apart from domestic nuisance, power interruptions would play havoc with New South Wales industry and the state economics.  Power interruptions are something we associate with third world economies. Any government that allowed that to happen would be punished at the ballot box.

The logical resolution to this problem would be for AGL to agree to keep Liddell running until its new form of generation comes on line, but even that has a danger factor.   There is a doubt about Liddell's present reliability.  It is creaking old technology and its output falls far below capacity.  Should the plant fail during peak load the outcome would be catastrophic.

Power certainty will cost the government money.  As an interim measure it would be necessary to buy and install individual generators powered by jet engines.   They are relatively cheap but costly to run and would be an expensive - but necessary - way of ensuring that peak summer loads could be met.

That is probably the only realistic option until this AGL imbroglio sorts itself out.   The government is being realistic in doubting that AGL can draw up plans and get them approved, let tenders and actually achieve construction of new technology to replace Liddell in just four short years.   If failure to achieve consensus is just a clash of egos the public will not be in a mood for forgiveness.

The government is the only authority with the ability to make the decisions and spend the money to keep the lights on !

Return of Terrace Housing !

When the first fleet arrived in 1788 they had an entire continent at their disposal, but when home construction started the style simply copied the mode that existed in the grimy, overcrowded city of London.  Streets of " terrace housing " can be seen in the inner city suburbs of Sydney even today.

More than a century later the style had changed.  The ever growing suburbs of the city consisted of free standing houses on quarter acre blocks.  That was the era of the  " suburbs " and distance between home and work was solved when we entered the age of the motor car, and parking that car became a problem in city streets.

Today is the era of high rise apartment living because we need to cram more people into this city.  The choice for many families is either a free standing home in the far outskirts of the city, or adoption of the " vertical village " in an apartment high in the sky.   The town planning people are suggesting a return of terrace style housing to fill the gap between these two extremes.  Terrace housing seems destined to receive fast planning approval to help reduce housing costs.

A lot of this thinking revolves around how the car evolves.   We are convinced that the " driverless car " will soon become a reality and the notion of personal car ownership will end.  It is a fact that the average privately owned car stands idle for most of the time, overnight and while we are at work - and we are being convinced that hiring a driverless car for leisure and work travel will be much more an economic option.

We humans are very predictable creatures.  The cars we drive are usually bought to depict our taste and style more than being just a means of transport.  Perhaps the notion of summonsing an anonymous moving box for travel, synonymous with what all the rest of the herd are using, will have little appeal to our personal vanity.

We would be unwise to write off car ownership on a cost basis.  As is evident with the present car fleet,  new innovations find their way into all areas of the price range very quickly and self driving cars are likely to follow that trend.  The car we drive today gives us bragging rights and a superiority complex.  That is unlikely to be discarded lightly.

The problem with terrace housing of the past was it made no provision for the car when the motoring age dawned.   Those living in terraces who bought a car were forced to park in the street, resulting in the inner city problems we have today.  We would be very unwise to duplicate that problem on the notion that privately owned cars will soon be a thing of the past.

At least the laws pertaining to high rise insist on a degree of onsite parking under the building.  How the age of the driverless car evolves is yet to be determined.

Finally - A Murder Charge !

January 12, 1970 was a perfect Australian summer day and yet nobody noticed when a three year old girl was abducted from Fair Meadow beach in the city of Wollongong.  The Grimmer family were living in the nearby migrant facility and Carol Grimmer had taken her three sons and three year old daughter - Cheryl - to the beach for the afternoon.   The children's father served in the Australian army.

Late in the afternoon the four children approached a bubbler and one of the boys held Cheryl up to get a drink.  The boys walked back to their mother and Cheryl dawdled  behind.  When they returned to look for her, she had simply vanished.

That started one of the biggest land searches in Australian history.  The police and emergency services, supplemented by the public spent days searching the beaches and sand dunes, and nearby the heavily wooded Puckey's estate.   Several beachgoers remembered seeing a man carrying a crying child away from the beach, but thought it was a father removing his child who wished  for further beach time.

Forty-eight years later the police have a man in custody, extradited from Victoria and he will face court later this week charged with Cheryl Grimmer's murder.  Incredibly, this man confessed to the murder when he was interviewed on April 29, 1970, but the police did not pursue the matter because of inconsistencies in the evidence.

The confession stated that he hid Cheryl in a drain for about thirty minutes and then took her to Bulli Pass.   She screamed when he removed the cloth over her mouth and he accidentally strangled her when he attempted to keep her silent.  He hid the body and returned for it later.

This confession stated that he finally buried Cheryl's body in a paddock off Balgownie road in Fairy Meadow.  At that time this was farm land and is now a heavily populated suburb. He could not be sure of the location but remembered it had a post and wire fence, a steel gate and a cattle ramp.  He also remembered a track crossing a small creek.

The police could not locate these landmarks and the property owner denied that they existed at that time, but years later his son confirmed their existence. Nearly fifty years since the crime, it seems that the man who allegedly abducted Cheryl will finally face court.

This will be a difficult trial. There is now no vacant land in Balgownie road and the burial site is probably under someone's home.  Its location is now unlikely.  The police who took that confession will appear as witnesses but it seems unlikely that any tangible evidence now exists.

Hopefully, resolving this crime after such a long period of time may restore hope to others who have suffered the loss of children in strange circumstances.  The mystery of the whereabouts of William Tyrrell,  - the boy in the Spider-Man suit - awaits resolution !

Again a " People's Bank " !

Sometimes the Greens have some wacky ideas but at a time when we are having a Royal Commission to delve into the outright thuggery that is so pervasive in the Australian banking system they have raised an issue that deserves serious consideration.   They suggest using the Reserve Bank of Australia to give some much needed competition to the " big four " banks that dominate the money trade in Australia.

Back in 1947 Ben Chifley's Labor government staked its hold on government on a plan to nationalize the array of private banks that served this nation - and lost.   The voters just didn't like the idea of a single bank stifling competition and rejected it as a form of creeping socialism.

We remember the era that followed as a time when banking in Australia was stable and very ethical.  The government owned the Commonwealth bank and it was the trend setter.  It was the biggest bank and every post office in every state served as a branch of its savings bank, giving the widest universal access to ordinary people.

Those were the days when Commonwealth bank people visited schools and handed out complimentary money boxes to students, and lectured them on the merits of saving money.  Contrast that today, when the banks refuse to even count the change that children manage to save.  We now live in a very different world.

Those ethical banking days came to an end in 1996 when we were told that the government had no business running banks.   The mighty Commonwealth bank was to be privatised, creating a rush to buy shares that rapidly rose in value.   The bank that set the standards for the entire banking industry was now tasked with making profits for its new owners.  It was like a cop throwing away his sheriffs badge and joining the outlaw gang.  Banking condensed - until the Commonwealth became one of the " big four bandit banks " !

That outcome is what we are investigating with this Royal Commission.  The banks are being forced to cringe as they admit the deceit and malpractice they have inflicted on their customers.  They have sold worthless insurance policies and given financial advice that has lost many people their retirement money.  They have gouged fees and issued fines that amount to extortion in relation to what such services cost the banks, and all of this has escaped the notice of the various banking oversight bureaus.

Restoring the Reserve bank of Australia as the government owned " people's bank " has a lot of merit. The fees that this people's bank chooses to implement sets a level that the other banks either follow - or find that they lose customers.  The other banks would no longer set interest rates to suit themselves. That " people's bank " could set the tone for first home mortgages to get home ownership moving again.

No doubt the outcome of this Royal Commission will be to try and regulate bank practices but we have seen the failure of the oversight institutions to keep abreast of rapid banking changes.  The sure way to guarantee ethical standards is to create a competitor against which the private banks will be judged.  That was exactly what the old Commonwealth bank managed to do during the decades that it dominated the Australian banking industry !

An " Organic " Opportunity !

Remember the news headlines when several Australian deaths last summer were blamed on pathogens getting into the melon crop  ?  We were warned to discard any melon fruit in the fridge, bought before a given date and a lot of people suffered a milder stomach reaction before the warning alerted the nation.

There has been a reaction from the Department of Agriculture.  They are proposing that seed for Australia's brassicaceous crop - and that includes broccoli, cauliflowers, kale, rocket, cabbage, turnips, bok choy, Brussel sprouts and radishes - be subjected to compulsory fungicide treatment on entering this country.  Seeds for all these vegetables is almost entirely imported.

That has caused panic in the Australian organic industry.   The Australian Certified Organic Organization is quick to point out that fumigated seeds would prevent these vegetables being described as " organic ". Fumigating the seeds would negate the standard that the end product was free of pesticide and that was the reason that it attracted a higher price in the market.  Many shoppers were happy to pay more to gain the benefit of this safety standard.

Agriculture is surely the oldest industry known to humankind, and over the centuries there was a common  knowledge source that farmers applied to their trade.  They preserved seed from each years crop to allow replanting in the coming new season.

If pathogens can enter this country on unfumigated seed there is obviously need - and opportunity - for a local seed growing and distribution network to take care of that problem, or the organic industry needs to reapply its standards.

Most people who buy organic vegetables probably couldn't care less if the actual seed had been fumigated.   What they want is vegetables grown in soil that has not  been treated with  all sorts of artificial fertilizer and sprayed with poisons to retard weed growth.  Perhaps we need a descriptive differentiation to describe this difference.  " Totally organic " to describe that grown from unfumigated seed - and just " Organic "  for produce grown in organic conditions after germination.

Some people are very particular in their selection of organic produce, but the vast majority buy it and pay a higher price simply because they think if may he " healthier " than produce not sold under that description.  Most likely, a lot of produce claimed to be organic may not attain the standards that apply to that description, or just partially meet those standards.   Much as the description of " free range " eggs can cover a wide description of the way the hen that lays them can be housed.

Those melon poisonings delivered a warning.  Pathogens can travel on seeds and our vast agricultural industry needs to adapt to this new fumigation regime.  The obvious answer is for the creation of a seed collation and distribution network within this country to remove the need for seed to be imported - and that is an obvious opportunity for an entrepreneur.

On The Public Record !

For those thinking of a holiday trip to Disneyland or perhaps Yosemite in the United States it is comforting to know that Australians enjoy visa free access to that country, but access does come with limitations.   Freedom from visas only applies to stays that do not exceed ninety days and America is a very big country.   Those intending a leisurely tour of many of the states or to complete a short study course could find it necessary to apply for an extended visa.

That is where the things you may have written in the past may come back to haunt you !  The US Immigration department has a new requirement that applies to those seeking to immigrate to the United States and all applicants for " non-immigrant visas ", which includes visitors intending to stay for more than ninety days.

You will be required to divulge your social media user name for the past five years and immigration may check your social attitudes on Facebook, Instagram, Snapchat and Twitter.  What you place on these social media facilities goes on the public record and immigration will obviously be very interested in comments that tend to support Islamic State or reveal anti social tendencies.  What you have written in a light hearted manner may result in visa rejection.

Of course, this will be condemned by supporters of free speech as an infringement on that right, but freedom of speech does come with qualifications.   If we vilify another person with claims that are untrue they can sue for damages and we are fast reaching the stage where using the internet for bullying will constitute a law infringement.  The age of the computer ushered in a new world of communications and we are now finding the extent that this can be misused.  The fact that deliberately placed fake news can change public attitudes and even swing national elections is cause for restrictions to apply.

We should also remember that granting a visa to allow a visit to another country is a privilege, not a right.   Immigration may decline - without any explanation.  A person whose social media contributions contain a diatribe of hate against those who do not have a white skin could be very suspect in a mixed society like America.  Certainly US immigration would be wise to ask questions on intended places of visit and whether speeches were intended before granting an entry visa.

One of the attractions of the Internet is our ability to contribute with anonymity.   We hide behind our user name and for some people that allows them to employ attitudes they would not even consider sharing with colleagues and friends.  The immigration people are a very canny lot.  Untruths or failure to divulge the correct user name may soon be a certain cause of visa rejection !

A Doubt About " Hell " !

Easter and its story about the resurrection is an integral part of the Christian religion.  Like most religions, Christianity takes the " carrot and stick " approach to how we lead our lives and what we expect when death finally claims us.

There is the reward of entering Heaven if we obey the laws of the church, but there is also the threat of eternal Hell if we are found wanting on the day of judgement.  That is the threat that has kept souls strictly on the straight and narrow for thousands of years.

This Easter an atheistic and anticlerical left wing Italian  literary giant  claims that in an interview with the Pope that the church leader said that " a Hell doesn't exist " !   This was widely reported by left wing media and resulted in a front page article in the respected Italian newspaper La Republica.

Bad souls are  "not punished ", journalist Eugenio Scalfari (93) reported the Pope as saying. " A hell doesn't exist ".  Scalfari has since backtracked, admitting that he did not use either a recording or a notebook during the interview.   He also moved away from the terminology of  " interview " by replacing that with " meeting " and claiming that it was more of a " chat " !   Remarking on his age, he observed that he was more used to being interviewed than interviewing.

The Vatican has since felt obliged to clear up this misunderstanding  and the matter has been characterized as simply a " misquotation ".  In western society, a steady stream of former worshippers have been leaving the church and any suggestion that hell is a myth casts a doubt on" Satan " !   The " Devil " and " Hell "  seem synonymous !

This " Hell " question leaves many things unanswered.  It seems that God once had a bit of a mutiny in Heaven and Lucifer, one of his angels misbehaved and was cast out.  He is now referred to as Lucifer or Satan and he hangs out in Hell.  He is now officially " the opposition " and he roams the earth and tempts souls.

The book of revelations tells us that eventually there will be confrontation between Heaven and Hell and Satan will defeated, but strangely hell will remain - under new management.  On the day of judgement how we have conducted our earthly life will determine whether we head for the Pearly Gates - or the fiery pit.

That is a question that will not be decided until life on this planet comes to an end !

Falling Space Junk !

Citizens of planet Earth can expect a rare sight in the sky sometime over this weekend.  China's first space station - Tiangong One - is in a decaying orbit and is expected to make a spectacular re-entry as gravity returns it to Earth.

This is indeed a major piece of space junk.  It is as big as a bus and it weighs several tonnes.  If the re-entry is at night we can expect a " shooting star " experience as it arcs across the sky in a blaze of burning light, but re-entry in daylight will still be highly visible, and both will be preceded by a sonic boom.

Much will be burned away by the intense heat but what reaches the surface of Earth will pose a danger.  The citizens of this planet face the prospect of death should they have the misfortune to be struck by this falling object, but the chance of that happening is remote.

A greater portion of the surface of this planet is water and a lot of the land mass is lightly inhabited. The chance of this piece of space junk hitting a living person is about the same as winning Lotto with the same numbers over three successive draws.

We may remember the unease when America's Skylab posed a re-entry threat back in 1979.   The light show was seen by many people but the point of impact was luckily in a remote area of Western Australia - and it is possibly legend that the only casualty was a rabbit.

The best the boffins can give us is that Tiangong One will fall to Earth within the time frame of midnight this Saturday to early morning on Monday.  Just where that may be is anyones guess, but its trajectory has it passing over Australia many times and so a light show in our sky is a possibility.

So - enjoy the light show and disregard the danger.  We can all expect to still be alive to return to work when this Easter break ends.