World War 111 ?

All through the cold war we lived with the threat of a nuclear exchange between super powers America and Russia.  When the Soviet Union imploded that threat lifted but now the threat level is again rising with a standoff developing between China and the United States.

China looks to be heading towards a dictatorship.  Very quietly, term limits are being dropped and it looks like Xi Jinping will stay long after his term limit expires in 2023.  This news was suppressed to the Chinese people.  It was relegated to an inner pager story in the Chinese press and the rigid censorship expunged any comments from social media.

The flash point will come - sooner or later - over the South Chia sea.   China's claim to sovereignty because it has developed artificial islands has been rejected by the world court.  China will now enforce its possession by military means and it is fast heading towards parity with the United States military.

So far, China has imposed no restrictions on shipping passing through the South China sea or Aircraft traveling above it, but it sends warnings to US naval ships that they are " trespassing ".  This area of water is a world shipping route and any sort of Chinese embargo would be commercially crippling.

China's intentions are unclear.  Those islands have been developed into military fortresses with safe harbours for shipping and air strips to serve as unsinkable aircraft carriers.  They project force far beyond the Chinese mainland, but whether this is intended as defence or offense is an unanswered question.

So far, the mutual destruction likely in a nuclear exchange has prevented open warfare between the super powers and delivered war by proxy.   The hope of humankind is that the restraint of the second world war may stay the nuclear option the same way that poisonous gas use did not extend to that conflict.  Had gas been part of the bombing campaign, the wars death toll would have been close to total annihilation.

We now know that a nuclear exchange came down to the decision of an individual commander in a soviet submarine during the Cuban missile crisis.  He was not a king or a president, but simply a naval officer in charge of a nuclear torpedo.  The decision he made saved millions of lives.

The gamesmanship being deployed in the South China sea can very easily see a similar scenario develop where a forward position is out of contact with their superiors and facing just such a decision.   It is doubtful that the leader of any sane nation would deliberately launch a nuclear strike in the knowledge that there would be a similar reply response, but the need for a swift response to a perceived attack delivers opportunities for an accident.

The most likely start to a third world war could be misinterpretation of unfolding events in the South China sea.

Return to the " Razor Gang " Days !

The city of Sydney had a colourful past in the days of sly grog shops and brothels back in the 1920's. Those were the days of " the Push " when violent characters earned their living by robbing people at night on the mean streets of the inner west.

We had our time of gang warfare and they were known as " Razor gangs " because their weapon of choice was the cut throat razor in wide use in those days.   The law prescribed prison time for those caught with a pistol but if a search revealed a razor the criminal could claim it was for personal hygiene - for shaving.  Criminals quickly learned that they were immune from prosecution if caught with this implement.

It is disturbing that we have lately seen a surge in crime with violent attacks on petrol stations and small convenience stores.  Usually one person working alone is confronted by a bandit armed with a knife or gun and the intention of cleaning out the money in the till.   The secondary target is cigarettes.   High value merchandise that is easily converted into cash openly in the pub or at a local market.

This past weekend the Sydney crime scene returned to a vision of the deep past when four people were violently robbed in inner west streets.  Four separate robberies took place within an hour - between12-20 and 1-30 on Saturday morning - by what police believe was the same two intruders. They are described as young men in their early to mid twenties.  One was of African appearance and the other seemed to have a Middle East background and they made their escapes in a small, dark coloured hatchback car.

All four attacks were on men of different age groups.  They were sudden and unprovoked and the victims were pushed to the ground and savagely kicked an punched.  Their pockets were rifled and wallets, phones and personal items taken.  One of the victims suffered a fractured skull and is in hospital in a serious condition.

All four attacks occurred in close proximity in inner west suburbs and it is evident that the attackers sought men walking alone and this was deliberate and well planned.  The fact that the attackers are identified as being from migrant groups seeking entry to escape civil war and violence will not be helpful  in calming those who oppose this policy.

There is a fear that some migrants do not assimilate and bring the animosities that create violence in their home countries with them to Australia.  That has been a feature of all the migrant waves that have washed onto our shores over many decades, and while the majority settle in and become productive citizens, a small minority turn to crime.

Unfortunately, when crime delivers a reward without the criminal getting caught it usually encourages repetition, and with repetition comes increased police activity.  We should not be too alarmed that these robberies will create a trend.  But the wise will take note of what has just happened and avoid becoming a target by walking alone late at night in suspect parts of the city.

There is not any major city anywhere in the world that is free of such crime !

Trial by Media !

Salim Mehajer does not have a wholesome image with many people.  He was the deputy mayor of a Sydney council and his wedding was an extravaganza somewhere between a scene from a Bollywood movie and a Royal coronation.  He is constantly in the news - for all the wrong reasons.  Recently he was arrested for allegedly punching a taxi driver.

He was taken to a police station and charged.  When he left that police station a media pack was waiting.  That scene was shown constantly on news channels and the public saw Mehajer literally having to fight his way to his car with microphones shoved in his face and reporters standing in front of him to block passage.

When he sat in the vehicle Channel 7 reporter Laura Banks forced her way into the gap between the door and the body of the car and shoved a microphone at Mehajer and demanded a comment.  He was looking the other way when he tried to close the door, hitting Banks and bruising her arm.  He was then charged with assault occasioning actual bodily harm.

This week he appeared before magistrate Joanne Keogh to answer that charge, and Keogh was scathing.  She found that the 31 year old property developer was " hunted " by a " frenzied media pack " who showed " appalling and predatory behaviour. "   He was subjected to derisive comments and questions  and Banks took the lead role, poking her microphone at Mehajer even though he asked to be left alone.

The magistrate found that Banks had been a " witness of little credit "  when she spoke at a hearing into the assault, with the reporters evidence not standing up under cross examination. Ms Keogh found that Mejaher did not intend to assault Banks but was " reckless " when he closed the door without looking at her.  She found the conviction proved, but imposed no penalty.

When we watch news broadcasts we constantly see this media aggression descend on ordinary people, some who have just learned of a bereavement.  Often it is a running pursuit as they try to make an escape and often they are pinned in by surrounding news camera people and a horde of interrogators.  It is a merciless hunt for a comment that will often feature in the nightly news.

Most people facing court action are advised by their legal team to avoid any comment because that police warning " that anything you say may be taken down and used against you " applies to what you may say to a reporter as well as the police.   This relentless media pressure for a comment could easily prejudice the outcome of the impending court appearance.

The public have the right to silence and those reporters harassing witnesses can claim that they are simply " doing their job " and that is unfortunately correct.   A reporter who does not aggressively gain news footage will quickly be replaced by someone who will !

Many of the public will get a quiet satisfaction in seeing Mehajer getting the peremptory grilling he dishes out to others, but this media hunt for compelling news stories is getting out of hand and we need a code of conduct to be imposed.  Ordinary people have little in the way of defence against that onslaught !

A Wolf in a Grocers Apron !

Most people think of Woolworths as a giant grocery supermarket with many adjacent liquor outlets. It is engaged in a price battle with Coles and there are few suburbs that do not have a large branch of both conglomerates vying for industry dominance.

Woolworths is also the largest gambling business in the country.  It owns fifty-six pubs in New South Wales and these are home to 1461 poker machines.   The turnover exceeds $78 billion annually and each year seems to break fresh records.

One of the peculiarities of the New South Wales tax system as it applies to poker machine profits is beneficial to Woolworths.  For tax purposes each pub is regarded as an individual business and consequently they are untaxed on takings of under $200,000.   Progressive tax rates then come into play and a pub that takes between $200,000 and $800,000 pays 33 per cent tax.

The higher the turnover, the greater the tax.  Pubs with pokie profits under $4 million pay 36 % tax and those above that pay fifty percent.   Poker machines are a very rewarding source of income for their owners and this graded tax scale was intended to protect the small pub with just a handful of poker machines.

Had the tax man lumped all those Woolworths owned pubs together for tax purposes it would have delivered a very different outcome.   As a single business it would have attracted a tax of just over a hundred million for the 2016/17 tax year instead of the  $72.5 million under this staggered ownership arrangement.

A few years back, the asking price for many pubs was in the doldrums and Woolworths management decision to acquire ownership was a very smart business move.   They foresaw the progression of poker machines from clubs to pubs and now they are reaping the benefits of that forward planning. They have also diversified their investment portfolio.   As that old saying goes.  Not all their eggs are in the grocery basket !

We recently had an example of the risks of diversification.  Woolworths decided to emulate Coles move to establish a stand alone hardware chain and this failed to find favour with the public.  The entire Woolworths organization made a crippling loss in one year and that hardware chain was immediately discontinued.  The company quickly returned to profit.

Many people are unaware that Woolworths own pubs and profit from gambling on poker machines and that does not exactly fit the image they hope to project as the " fresh food people " !  There is a growing movement to ban poker machines because of their addictive nature and the damage they do to living standards.  It is noted that they are concentrated in low socio-economic suburbs.

It seems that Woolworths may be viewed differently by different social groups.  This gambling arm may attract criticism from customers with high social values, but be applauded by investors who see value in their shareholding !

A " Youth " Revolution !

There was something mesmerising about the spectacle of millions of kids pouring out of American schools and staging demonstrations to tell their president that they demanded safety - and the removal of assault rifles from the public to strictly use by the military .

President Trump's reply was a vague suggestion about arming teachers.  Anything to avoid getting the powerful arms lobby offside.  Just imagine the ludicrous image of elderly, untrained teachers with a handgun being expected to do battle with an intruder brandishing a military machine gun with a hundred round clip.  Not even Hollywood would find that believable.

Perhaps this rage will subside and the kids will go back to class - and maybe it will not.  Kids in America get the vote at eighteen and can register at seventeen.  A lot of those demonstrating will be able to vote by the next election and now they have a powerful reason to register - and turn out and have their say.

Traditionally, kids are not interested in politics and choose not to vote, but this could develop into a movement and if it did it would rock the traditional Republican and Democrat parties with their rigid orthodoxy and rejection of compromise.   If the kids of America set their minds to it they could create a new political party that had a fresh approach to righting many wrongs.

If the kids could get their act together and draft a policy platform that embraces the changes that most people want, but  expect will never happen because the stultifying dead hand of traditional politics, they will  be a powerful force to be reckoned with.   Kids talking their politics to Mum and Dad, Grandpa and Grandma can swing a lot of votes and destroy the present " do nothing " complacency.

It must to obvious to most thinking people that politics in America has reached a low ebb. Elections are rarely a real contest because the same old faces hold office term after term and the elected member votes on orthodox lines rather than break new ground.  Failure to toe the party line would ensure disendorsement and the end of life on the " gravy train ".

It all depends if the kids realise the power they hold and can put together a platform that is realistically achievable.  They will need to reject the firebrands who demand the impossible if they are to create a movement that appeals to the average voter.   The fact that voting in America is optional means that a lot of potential voters have given up because they think effective change is now impossible.

An opportunity exists for a creative change in American politics.   Now it all depends on a few charismatic leaders emerging from the pack, seizing the attention of the kids calling for change and creating a " movement " that lasts the difference in young peoples attention spans.   If they can make politics as enchanting as the latest music sensation or dance sequence it could bring about an American revival that is desperately needed.

This seems to be an opportunity as profound as the " Suffragettes " who toiled to give women the vote, or the rescission of the law that only permitted property owners to record a vote.   The missing item in American politics has always been the youth vote.   Perhaps now its time has come !

Simply a " Bad Idea " !

Former prime minister Tony Abbott has dropped the cat amongst the pigeons with a demand that our immigration numbers be reduced from the present 190,000 annually to a new level of 110,000.  He suggests that this will miraculously cure the ever rising price of homes and force pay levels to at least match inflation.

That might be a comforting thought if we were not the last underdeveloped land mass on planet earth and our world was not heading to a population explosion that will test the food supply.  Our present population of over twenty-four million people is miniscule by world standards and we already look understocked in comparison with our neighbours.

Remember that maxim of " Populate - or Perish " that became the catch-cry after the end of the second world war ?  Before that war we had looked to Britain to defend this country.  When it became obvious that was beyond them, we looked to America.  At wars end we opened our doors to the dispossessed of Europe and we experienced a growth rate that has ever since powered our economy.

Along with the rest of the world we are experiencing an unprecedented bubble in house prices and stagnant wage levels.  The finger has been pointed at African gang warfare in Melbourne.  Every culture that has landed on our shores has brought their internal crime culture with them and we remember the Mafia and the Triads which our security forces eventually tamed.

The thought of eighty thousand fewer people coming to Australia each year would be a cause for consternation in economic circles.    The Australian economy is built around that expectation and the hit to the budget would be around $4 to $5 billion over the next four years.  The statisticians point out that despite the belief that migrants absorb welfare and give little back, in reality they are more entrepreneurial than most other people and quickly engorge the money flow with a host of new activities.  They are very much contributors to the Australian economy.

There is something defeatist about a plan to block the migrant intake in the hope that it reduces demand for houses and somehow causes a worker shortage that pushes up wages.   Do we really want to descend into a rut where little changes and the economy coasts along in neutral ?

Unfortunately, we seem in the grip of a sort of " business inertia ".   A lot of businesses are making healthy profits, but seem more interested in buying out competitors and reducing competition than expanding into new profit lines.   That will not benefit if the migrant flow ebbs to a trickle and the market for goods slows accordingly.

That old maxim of " Populate or Perish " is as valid today as it was after the end of the second world war.   We live in an ever expanding and dangerous world.   If the pundits are right and this world is heading into a food shortage, envious eyes will be looking at this vast great land mass - and assessing the capability of its defences.

This is indeed a numbers game !

The War Within !

Its starting to look like the biggest threat to the United States of America comes from the very people who have the right to call themselves American citizens.   America has degenerated into a vast armed camp and there are actually more guns in circulation that citizens as revealed in the last census.

It seems that in most states the average citizen can walk into a gun shop or attend one of the numerous gun fairs and legally buy an assault rifle capable of automatic fire that was designed to be a military weapon.  Various multi round magazines are on offer and the public has access to weapons capable of waging war on a battlefield.

This is a cherished right written into the constitution when the American colonies fought a war to gain independence from Britain.  At that time, the weapons industry had not progressed beyond the capacity of muzzle loading firearms and the country was sparsely settled.  Putting food on the family table relied on hunting for many people and citizens were encountering armed opposition to their western expansion from the lands original inhabitants.

The movie industry made untold money from the gun toting days of the American wild west and the gangster era that arose from prohibition, but now the right to own a gun has become enmeshed in politics.  The National Rifle Association is a giant pro gun lobby encased within the Republican movement and many homes are simply arsenals stocked with many weapons and enough ammunition to run a war.

It raises an interesting question.  Why does the average person need an assault rifle ?  It certainly is not for hunting. The hunter aims to be a marksman who delivers a head shot, not to riddle whatever is in the point of aim like a colander.  There are vague notions about " defending the country against invaders "  but that is the task of the very efficient American military.

We are now seeing regular massacres of innocent people and they usually involve an assault rifle. Tragically, the victims are often school children, or in one recent case, crowds attending a music festival.  Often the perpetrator is someone suffering a mental illness - and that does not seem to prevent them obtaining a gun.

It is evident that nothing is about to change.  The NRA is a powerful body extolling the right to own a gun and the politicians on both sides of the political divide are terrified of its power to influence the vote.  The time is probably right for a new American political part to emerge with a gun control platform and the aim to abolish private ownership of assault rifles.   It would be interesting to see how many would desert the old Republican and Democrat ranks for a third party promising background checks to gun purchases and sensible legislation to allow gun ownership, but the total prohibition of assault rifles in private ownership.

That seems the only way this gun issue is going to be decided by the ordinary men and women who are horrified by these constant massacres and know that the necessary legislation to correct the imbalance will never be delivered by the present political system.

We have just seen a monumental change in the way Americans chose to deliver their vote.  Perhaps gun control is the issue that can continue that momentum and sweep away what has become a growing cancer on American society !

Our Changing Weather !

Perhaps the most important stretch of water that influences the world weather is the Great Southern Ocean between Tasmania and Antarctica.  It accounts for as much as seventy-five percent of the ocean heat sink and forty percent of the sea absorption of carbon dioxide.

Science predicts that changes to salinity may cause the ocean circulation to move in new directions and this would have a profound effect on the Southern Oceans ability to absorb heat and carbon, and change traditional weather patterns.   It could make the Australian land mass wetter - or drier  !

Teams of scientists on the Australian Research Vessel Investigator have been profiling both the temperature and salinity of the water at 108 locations.   This work includes the positioning of measuring equipment that reports the conditions at a depth of four thousand meters and delivers monthly readings.

The evidence shows that since the 1970's the bottom water - near the seabed - has become lighter and fresher.  That accelerated in 2010 and this may have been a response to the breaking off of half of the Merz Glacier Tongue in eastern Antarctica.

The latest readings show that this is changing back to becoming saltier and denser in the deepest part of the ocean, but these levels are nowhere near where they were in the 1970's - or even the 1990's. There is a distinct change in the southern ocean and this is visible to the naked eye with the contraction of seas ice cover that decreases each year.

It stands to reason that if the glaciers are melting faster they are depositing great chunks of ice formed with fresh water into the oceans and as this melts it dilutes the natural salinity.  This infusion of fresh water speeds up the circulation flow and delivers a new weather pattern.

The waters of the great Southern Ocean are important for Australia's climate but they also have a profound influence on the world weather.  Antarctic waters are also a moderator of the world climate. The oceans take up about 93 percent of the extra heat trapped in the atmosphere by greenhouse gasses and about a third of the carbon dioxide released by human activity, such as the burning of coal.

It is research carried out by vessels such as the R V Investigator that delivers information from an area with very little other human activity, and yet an area that will deeply influence the world in which we live.   We should also remember that both the polar extremities are the storehouse of this planets stock of fresh drinking water, safely stored in the form of ice and snow.

Humans in other parts of the world would be wise to have more than a passing interest in what is happening in Antarctica !

" Contactless " Payments !

Few remember those old days when Sydney trams had both a driver and a conductor.  The job of that conductor was to roam the tram dispensing tickets and collecting the money. Travellers at that time would hear the familiar call of " Fares Please " as he moved through a crowded tram.

When the trams were discontinued and replaced by buses that created a new problem.  It took a lot of time for each traveller to shuffle in the cheque and buy a ticket from the driver, and exchanging coins for notes to offer change added to journey time.  We were desperate to find a better way than those paper tickets.

The Opal card has been an outstanding success. Passengers simply tap their card on a card " reader " and the world of electronics debits that fare from their account balance.  That same Opal card works on trains, trams, buses and ferries and the fare is calculated on the journey length.  The passenger simply taps on when they enter, and taps off when they depart.   We now have a " coinless " transport system.

The problem with the Opal card is it is something tourists and visitors to this city lack, and we have cruise ships disgorging thousands of passengers for a day visit when they are in port.   It is suggested that the system be extended to allow these same card readers to debit fares when tapped with either MasterCard or Visa cards.  This would certainly take care of the problem for tourists and those making short visits to this city.

Just such a system extension is being trialled on the Manly ferries and this includes the many forms of payment presentation other than plastic credit cards. In particular, most mobile phones now incorporate a link to a credit card and many travellers pay their fare by simply tapping their mobile phone on the reader.   This trial on the Manly ferries has been an overwhelming success.

This seems a logical extension of convenience.  Paying by a conventional credit card requires the card to be removed from a purse or wallet and returned after use.  In todays world, a mobile phone is usually held in the hand because of constant use to retrieve messages or to view news.  In most cases it would not slow progress either entering or leaving public transport when used for paying fares.

It seems that we are on the cusp of a payment revolution.  Most of the services billed on a monthly basis are fast moving to reach the customer by email rather than through the postal system and payment is similarly handled electronically.   The handling of cash has traditionally served to pay for those small transactions such as buying a newspaper, a cup of coffee or the sandwiches we consume for lunch.

Banknotes and coins pass through many hands and are considered unhygienic when handled with food.   They now pose a new problem for many merchants.  When the banks closed most suburban branches, they are also refusing to accept and count what amounts to the daily takings of most small businesses.   This must now be collected by a money transport firm, counted and transported to a central receiving depot - at that merchants cost.

The banks are enthusiastic to see the extension of small payments by their card systems because this will deliver valuable data on customers buying habits and preferences.  This search for " data " is boundless.   Paying small amounts with cash is simply a habit that is fast reaching its use by date. If tapping a mobile phone becomes normal to pay transport fares its extension to settle most other small amounts seems inevitable.  We are entering the " contactless " paying era !

Getting Serious on Safety !

It must be obvious to any thinking person that we have lost the war on using mobile phones while driving cars.  Just stand near any high volume suburban road and count the cars whizzing by with drivers holding a mobile phone to their ear.  Even more dangerous are those with their eyes off the road, head down and texting messages.

This past weekend, just that turned to tragedy. A twenty-two year old male driving a Fiat van on Campbelltown road at Leumeah was approaching police setting up a breath testing station.  He was travelling at sixty kilometres an hour.  He admits that he took his eyes off the road for  about twenty seconds to concentrate on the text message and his vehicle crashed, pinning two police officers against the back of their parked police car.

Both police officers are in hospital in a serious condition with broken bones and one has had his foot amputated. The offending young driver has an appalling driving record.  He has lost his license four times in four years for accruing demerit points and was facing another loss before this accident. Some of those loss of points were because of his using a mobile phone while driving.

The lure of the phone is just too tempting for some people and we need a law change to curb that habit.   A simple signal suppressor will negate both incoming and outgoing phone traffic within a vehicle while the engine is running.  Getting caught using a mobile phone while driving should require such a suppressor to be fitted and the culprits driving  license be restricted to only apply to phone suppressed vehicles.

Unfortunately, that suppression would also apply to other passengers in that vehicle.  To make or receive a phone call the vehicle would need to pull over and switch off the engine.  That would be a suitable humiliation for drivers who ignored the law and the fear of its imposition would make compliance widespread.

It is obvious that both a heavy fine and loss of demerit points are not curbing this dangerous practice.The Australian death toll from road crashes is again rising and probably some of these can be attributed to driver inattention because of phone use.  Removing the ability to make or receive calls is a practical way of demanding compliance.

Exactly this same solution would quickly end the smuggling of mobile phones into the prison system. Mobile phone suppression would limit prison communications to the landline and allow all traffic to be monitored.  Criminal bosses run their crime empires from their cell and their need for smuggled mobile hones has pushed the reward level for corruption to spectacular levels.  As a result, smuggling is rife and the mobile phone is now more rewarding than even the drug supply.  The instrument is useless once a suppressor is in place and covering the prison.

Law enforcement is really the application of the " fear factor ".   If the rewards are great enough, many people continue to break the law - until that fear factor reaches an unacceptable level. Suppression concentrates the solution directly on those who can't - or won't - obey the law !

An Industry Threatened !

Perhaps an ocean cruise is now the fastest growing leisure activity and the port of Sydney has become " Pacific Central ".  We actually have a problem finding sufficient wharf space to handle the growing number of new luxury liners servicing the trade.

What is promised is very appealing.  At a very reasonable  cost these shipping lines offer the opportunity to visit ports in other countries.  The emphasis is on luxury, from the individual staterooms that have replaced mere " cabins " to the gourmet food served at meals.  There is high quality onboard entertainment and passengers are treated like celebrities as they enjoy carefree days on the high seas.

Unfortunately, that dream can turn into a nightmare.  All it takes is a virus to spread amongst this concentration of people to have passengers suffering vomiting and diarrhoea and wishing to be returned to shore.   The cruise people are very fastidious in hygiene techniques to combat this threat and they seem to have it under control.

What is a growing threat to this industry is the number of passengers who book a cruise with the intention of causing trouble.  Often that involves the over use of alcohol and we have just had an episode where a family group of twenty people came aboard looking for fights and began brawling continuously with the other passengers.  This caused the ship to make an unscheduled call at an Australian south coast port and the offenders were arrested and forcibly taken ashore by police.  The cruise was shortened because of this incident.

That raises an interesting legality.  When a ship is at sea and past the twelve mile territorial limit it is in International waters, and Australian law does not apply.  Most likely those unruly passengers will not be charged but will be released in Eden and have to make their own way home - at their expense.

From the days when sailing ships spent many months at sea the Maritine law conferred extraordinary powers to ships captains.  They may conduct marriage ceremonies - and burials at sea, and in the event of attempted piracy they may order the death penalty.  A ships captain certainly has the power to order rioting passengers to be locked in the ships brig - on bread and water - for the duration of the voyage.

Of course, modern cruise ships are unlikely to have a brig.  Piracy is still very much a reality in various parts of the world, but it has been a long time since a commercial vessel has sailed into port with vanquished pirates hanging from the yard arm.

Unfortunately, this lack of a specific law at sea works in favour of the growing number of people who have anti social tendencies and get their kicks out of causing disruption and starting fights.  The fact that they are free of the law that applies onshore becomes an incentive to book a cruise.

This cruise industry delivers billions of dollars to Australia and it needs protection.  We would be wise to ask that the " Law of the Sea " be altered, to ensure that whatever law that is applicable to the port from which the cruise commenced would apply for the duration of the cruise.   Otherwise, this lack of a specific law can quickly kill a growing and very valuable industry.

People on Pedestals !

The furore over how deputy prime minister and leader of the National party - Barnaby Joyce - conducts his personal life has caused the prime minister to issue an edict that forbids members who hold ministerial portfolios from having sexual relations with their staff.

Any politician holding public office must conduct his or her personal affairs under the scrutiny of both the media and the opposing political party.  Indiscretions can draw newspaper headlines that can lead to voter disapproval at the ballot box.   That is an outcome that is judged by the public according to their own personal moral standards.

What happened within the deputy prime minister's family relationship is very common in the lives of many people.  A long marriage which produced several children became frayed and led to separation. During that separation, it seems that Joyce found comfort with a member of his personal staff, and the result was that she became pregnant.  The relationship is now permanent and he has declared that she is  his " partner ".

A century ago, such a revelation would have seen such an offending politician hounded from office. Even in this more liberated age some colleagues are calling for him to stand down as leader and he has discreetly taken personal leave.   As a result, he will not assume the post of prime minister while the holder of that office is overseas.

Once again sex raises its ugly head.  A long time ago, divorce was almost impossible without the court finding a " guilty partner " to shoulder the blame.  We eventually adopted " no fault " divorce and created the Family court to settle the details.  Today, divorce is merely the allocation of property to allow the parties to go their own way.

We have just legalised same sex marriage at the same time that obtaining a marriage certificate before cohabitation has gone completely out of fashion.  The advent of oral contraception removed the bogey of pregnancy from casual sex and it is now rampant across young age groups. The statistics show that of those who do marry, more than a third of such unions end in divorce.

It seems that what some term the " pecking order " applies when it comes to sexual indiscretions.  What is tolerated in lower ranking state politicians becomes a more serious crime in their higher Federal ranks, and those who attain ministerial level are held to an even higher standard.  Now the prime minister has seen fit to impose a code of conduct that specifically makes it an offence for ministry holders to engage in sexual relations with any of the people who are paid to serve them. No specific penalty is attached, but removal from the ministry seems to be threatened.

That is an almost laughable edict.  It differentiates between a married politician having a torrid affair with a member of the public and a similar relationship within the confines of the office.  A quick look at the history books will reveal that where sex is concerned human judgement falls by the wayside nomatter the rank of the people involved.   The lure of sex has resulted in the fall of empires and the  rejection of thrones.   This present scandal will fade into obscurity - to eventually be replaced by another !

Anyone thinking sex can be abolished with an edict - is lving in la-la land !

Water Wars !

The African city of Cape Town is counting down the days until the water taps run dry. The city continued to attract residents and little heed was taken in enlarging the water supply and now a drought has depleted that source to the degree that only the dregs remain.

The world has been warned that wars over water are our scenario for the future.  Some of the greatest rivers - the Ganges, Brahmaputra and the Mekong have their headwaters in the Himalayas where their flow comes from snow melt and the retreating glaciers.  They start in China and make their way through many countries, delivering the life blood of agriculture to the vast hordes of India, Myanmar and Vietnam.

This flow of water is directed by gravity and how much the higher placed nations steal away depends directly on what is left for the people who live on the lower levels.  Anger is building as countless dams are built or proposed to both conserve drinking water and to harness the water to create hydro driven electricity.  At this same time, the flow is diminishing because global warming is reducing the snow and the glaciers are failing.  An ever diminishing supply is servicing an ever increasing number of people.

Here in Australia we have the advantage that our great rivers start and finish within the jurisdiction of a single Federal government, but they pass through states who are just as hostile to water restrictions as different countries to our north.  The mighty Murray has is headwaters in Queensland and flows from there through New South Wales and Victoria until it enters the sea in South Australia.  The flow is so reduced that in recent years sand bars blocked its access to the ocean.

There is a plan in place to ration water in an orderly manner to restore a healthy river system and this has resulted in a big improvement.  The city of Adelaide in South Australia is dependent on this river for their water supply, but it is evident that the flow to the lower reaches is not attaining the volume predicted in the management plan.

The problem is that licenses for irrigation rights to draw from the river is a state prerogative and both New South Wales and Queensland have been over generous in allowing vast agricultural industries to be established under their jurisdictions.   In particular, we now produce large cotton crops, and these have a great thirst for water.  A reduction in agriculture would adversely affect state budgets.

There are accusations that many agricultural industries have exceeded their allotted ration of water and that hidden pumps and pipelines are drawing vast amounts of water.   This is hotly denied, but it is undeniable that far less water than was agreed on the water sharing plan is now reaching South Australia.

Now a new water plan is awaiting approval by the states and this calls for the 320 billion litres that agriculture in Queensland the New South Wales have to return to the river to be decreased by another 70 billion litres.

This reduction is a Greens led motion and it is facing a political refusal by both New South Wales and Victoria.  South Australia - where this matter is critical - is shortly facing an election and this issue could be decisive in deciding the vote.   Intense political pressure is also being applied by agricultural interests in the northern basin of New South Wales and Queensland.   Any reduction in water availability could end their viability.

This looks like descending into another political stalemate.   The government is reaching for a reduction figure that agriculture can live with and Labor has joined with the Greens to block any hope of consensus.  New South Wales is talking about walking away from the entire river recovery plan.

Unfortunately, this is an issue very much determined by gravity.  These rivers flow to the south, hence the " first in, best dressed " principle applies.  Agriculture in the north draws its needs and those in the lower reaches get what is left.

If the Australian states can not reach harmonious agreement, just imagine the outcome when the sharing of river water must be agreed between nation states that control their own offensive military forces.

Should God Pay Tax ?

One of the interesting thing to come out of the Royal Commission into Child Sexual Abuse was a glimpse into the assets under the control of churches in Australia.  One of the peculiarities is that churches are absolved from paying any of the taxes with which we mere mortals are encumbered. They don't pay council rates on the properties they own, nor do they pay income tax, capital gains tax or even the GST.

It was the Roman Catholic church that came under the greatest scrutiny at this Royal Commission, because it has an appalling record of child abuse by priests - and because it is clearly the wealthiest  religious body in the world.   It is notoriously evasive about both the extent of its wealth and many conclude that its deposition on property treasures in both New South Wales and Victoria was seriously understated.   Independent experts estimate that the Catholic Church owns $ 30 billion in assets spread across Australia.

When it came to compensation for child abuse victims the church pleaded poverty.  The national compensation system established by the church in 1996 has averaged just $ 49,000 to individual victims. Prior to that, the church insisted on water tight confidentiality agreements be signed before any money changed hands.

The Catholic church is both an employer of people and a provider of services.  It runs an extensive school system and many hospitals, and in the distant past both were mainly staffed with Nuns and Priests who do not draw salaries.  Today, the staff come from all walks of life and many religions and they draw government subsidies and work on a commercial basis. This freedom from taxation gives them an edge against tax paying competitors.

It has long been the contention that it would be shameful to levy a tax on the house of God, but then it seems that God lives in many houses.   The Christian religion encompasses many divisions with different views on scripture and then there is Islam, also divided but also worshipping this same God. Any body of people who claim to be a " church " is usually included in this absolution from paying taxes.  The " Scientology " cult achieves this freedom, despite its style of religion being rejected by most other religions bodies.

The churches tell us that God is always in urgent need of money and they seek donations in his name. Many people nearing the end of life conclude that a substantial bequest may ease their way into heaven and will their home to a church.  In the distant past, the site of many great churches was either a bequest from the state or was bought cheaply.   Today, such sites in the centre of cities have untold commercial value and contribute nothing to the running of the city.

A long time ago Australia saw itself as a Christian nation, but today we are home to many from other parts of the world who practice religions which have world wide followings.  In the interest of tolerance and equality, this same tax freedom applies to these religions.

It is doubtful that we will ever see a building used for worship attracting council rates or any of the various imposts that apply to land holdings, but where churches own commercial activities such as providing insurance cover or profit generating retail sales it would not be unreasonable to see them pay their fair share of tax.

Getting that through parliament would certainly generate an interesting debate !

The STD Risk Increases !

The last great STD panic was over Aids and we were treated to a very explicit advertisement depicting the Grim Reaper in a bowling alley.  Instead of skittles falling beneath the balls, it was men, women and children.  It delivered a compelling message.

For a while, Aids cut a swathe through the gay community but now it is considered " manageable " . People with the disease now commonly live to a ripe old age and the hysteria has abated. Along with Aids, most sexually transmitted diseases are no longer feared because we think that they are easily treated.  We have become complacent and we tend to ignore the warnings that reduce the STD risk.

Now an old horror from yesteryear is making a comeback.  Gonorrhoea is particularly rife in the Sydney and Melbourne community density and a severe strain is becoming totally immune to the antibiotic that used to deliver a cure.

This strain is Neisseria gonorrhoea and the antibiotic that has been our saviour is azithromycin.
What is alarming the medical profession is the sharp upward curve in alerts to this disease. between 2016 and 2017.  They have risen 182%.  It is on the cusp of becoming out of control.

Ominously, Azithromycin non-susceptible gonorrhoea is now the most frequently reported critical antimicrobial resistant threat to our last line of defence.   What the doctors and scientists refer to as the " super-super bugs " !

Untreated gonorrhoea could lead to infertility in women and there is a real danger if this gets out of control we may end up with mass infertility.  If this is to be beaten we need action on two fronts.  We need to sharpen up our attention and take the precautions that limit the spread of the disease - and those who suspect they are infected need to get urgent medical attention to limit further exposure.

Unfortunately, the resistance to antibiotics shows no sign of easing.  For a long time we though this was caused by patients not completing their antibiotic course fully, allowing bug survivors to mutate and grow immunity to the drug. Antibiotics were certainly far too readily subscribed, often for treatment of virus caused maladies, to which they were not applicable.

Perhaps a greater risk is coming from the agricultural industries.   The economics of modern farming require high density  pigs, chickens and other livestock to be cultivated in bulk and this increases the spread of disease.  All are mass treated with antibiotics to keep such diseases under control, and again what is really an over use allow the mutation to anti-biotic resistance to take hold.

Public attitudes are unhelpful.  We seem to think that science will always keep ahead of the super bugs, but that is not guaranteed.  Medicine has made great strides in the past century, but the Achilles heel is antibiotic resistance.  If that defence fails, things as simple as a paper cut or a graze in the garden could deliver a death sentence.

It seems that we must again start to plan to avoid STD's with caution !

Squeezing the Welfare System !

Rule changes wending their way through parliament will make it harder for women trying to escape a violent relationship.  In many cases the victim is financially trapped and this is the main reason some women continue to endure unrelenting violence at the hands of their oppressor.  Often, the public is unsympathetic and blame the woman for not making that " move " !

In many cases there are children involved and the main obstacle is finding somewhere else to live - and that requires money.  Under the existing regime an applicant can claim extenuating circumstances in an emergency situation and be allowed to complete their application details later. That is about to be discontinued, and each individual case be assessed by Centrelink staff on a case by case basis.

There are refuges for women escaping domestic violence but they are usually unable to accept new applicants at short notice and strict term limits apply.  Sometimes the only option available to a battered woman is life on the streets, joining the homeless who sleep in shop doorways and scrounge food from the Salvation Army.  When little children are involved, that is an option that many refuse to consider.

Putting that decisive power into the hands of Centrelink officers raises a question of ethics. Many abused women are coaxed back by the promises of their partner against the advice of these people who will hold decisive power. Such later applications may receive a cold reception.  It is also a fact of life that some women are attracted to the type of partner who is physically abusive - and never seems to learn.

It is likely that this rule tightening will simply increase the incidence of domestic violence leading to major injury or even death.  Getting access to a little money at such a critical time is usually the decisive factor in making that escape decision.

Another rule change will cause consternation to many people.  The " backpay " principle is being abolished.   At present, when an applicant applies for Newstart or the Youth Allowance there is a time gap while that application is checked and considered by Centrelink staff.  Upon approval, the applicant receives backpay for the time to where the application was made, and that will be discontinued.

This gap between application and approval can often extend over a long period if Centrelink requests additional information and that information is difficult to obtain. Borrowing from family and friends to tide that person over may now face difficulties now that the end of backpay makes the reimbursement of such loans less likely.

Obviously, the government must be careful with the disbursement of public money but it also needs to remember the reason these payments were legislated in the first place.

Busting in Doors !

The difference between a " Pub " and a " Club " is defined in New South Wales law.  A pub is defined as a " public house " while " membership " of a Club allows that person similar privileges as apply in their own home.  Back in the days when the pubs closed on Sundays and alcohol ceased serving at six pm during the rest of the week, members were entitled to drink in their club without any of these restrictions.

Until recently, illegal bikie groups used that law to protect what they termed their " club houses ".  These were virtual crime dens scattered about the suburbs and they were furnished with every comfort and dispensed cheap grog.  The cops needed a search warrant to enter and bringing them under control became a tactical battle often fought out in the courts.

Now an old law that has languished on the law books since the heady days of the second world war has been resurrected.  The " Restricted Premises Act " was passed into law in 1943 at the urgings of the military commanders.  They were convinced that enemy spies were learning the nation's secrets by frequenting the brothels and sly grog shops of which Sydney was rife.

That was a different age.  Not only did tight civil standards apply in public morals but the military believed that it had a duty to protect serving members of the armed forces from these " dens of debauchery ".  The parliament agreed and the legislation passed on both moral grounds and the need for national security.

Now it has been rediscovered, waiting patiently in the law books and the policer have started using it to smash  bikie crime.   The cops now enthusiastically  append a court order quoting this act to the exterior wall of a bikie club before smashing down the doors and sending in a raiding party.

These raids are brutal.  The legislation suggests that the authorities can confiscate anything to do with illegal liquor sales and the police interpret that to include glasses, fridges, bar furnishings and anything that can be even remotely connected to a working bar, including drink coasters and beer nuts.

The police are confident that the loss of these secure club houses will destroy the bikie culture. Many have been better furnished than RSL clubs and have provided one of the main attractions for being a club member.  The police go in with sledge hammers and the legal authority to destroy the safe domain where much bikie crime is planned.  This closing down of club houses will deal a powerful blow to the camaraderie that has made these crime groups so powerful.

Just such a raid was carried out on the famous Nomads club house in inner Newcastle.  This colourful building has for ages stood like a one finger salute proclaiming the invincibility of that local chapter over the law - and now it is closed down.

So - an old law enacted for a specific purpose during the war and never rescinded has found a new use.  Most will applaud its use to constrict bikie crime but the wise may wonder just what other targets may be in police sights.  That is the problem when a law passed for a specific purpose - has a wide interpretation !

Shooting Down a " Fluffy Duck " !

There is a witch hunt going on within the walls of Sydney University over a " drinks after work " function which included fellow  student administration and recruitment staff from other universities. What seems to generate this furore is the fact that alcohol was served and in particular attention is riveted on whether what was called a " Fluffy Duck " cocktail was appropriate.

For the record, a Fluffy Duck has a Bacardi base topped with advocaat, lemonade and a nip of cream. The event organizers comment that it was added because not everyone is keen on beer or wine.  These drinks were accompanied by a modest serving of cheese on crackers.

What is drawing the ire of both the anti alcohol lobby and the public waste of money people is the contention that the Sydney University organizers of the event paid for it from their corporate credit cards, and consequently it escaped the scrutiny of University accounting.

The organizers justify this function on the grounds that student recruitment generates more than a billion dollars in revenue and it is important that the methods of attaining input do not clash.  These functions generate camaraderie .and help make recruitment part of a " team effort ".

What is left unsaid is the inescapable fact that should such a function be proposed without the offer of some convivial alcoholic drinks the attendance would probably shrink to near zero.  Alcohol is very much a part of the Australian culture and it is widely used to bridge both the culture and age gaps when a wide spectrum of people are gathered together.

Australia once had a very restrictive attitude to alcohol.  The hotels closed their doors on the dot of six in the late afternoon, resulting in what was called the " Six o'clock swill ".  The café culture of serving beer or wine was almost totally forbidden and yet numerous sly grog shops kept the public supplied.

There is no doubt that we suffer tragedy from the misuse of alcohol.  A high proportion of deaths from road crashes can be attributed to drivers using their cars with an illegal alcohol level in their blood and those who become addicted can bring financial ruin to their families.  Even moderate users go on the occasional " bender " , but the vast majority of people use alcohol sanely and in moderation.

Now that this university function has been brought under the media spotlight it seems evident that all manner of corporate credit card spending will come under the microscope.  For a while, there will be a reluctance to include alcohol at any function and attendances will dwindle accordingly.  Unfortunately, the camaraderie that makes many work groups so functional will suffer.  Group leaders will be reluctant to use their credit cards to contribute a birthday cake to help celebrate a colleagues birthday.  Such expenditure is often the " magic " that helps keep a group of people working productively and harmoniously, but would be questioned by higher management.

In the commercial world life will go on as before.  Many companies end the working week by opening the fridge and shouting the staff a couple of beers on a Friday night.   That University function would probably have passed unnoticed if the fare had been kept to wine and beer, plus a little cheese and crackers to whet appetites.   Maybe in future it would be a very good idea to avoid anything with a name like a " Fluffy Duck "  !

This Crazy World !

Remember those companies that make their living by assessing credit risk ?   Yes.  Those same ones that bestowed a triple A rating on bundles of home mortgages that were sold as derivatives and which caused the massive recession that hit the world in 2008.

It seems that these " Gnomes of Zurich " are now proclaiming that anyone who has a big unused credit card credit limit is  a bad credit risk.  That could lead to rejection of loan approvals for such measures as a new mobile phone contract or signing on for one of the services that screen movies to your television.

You assume you have a good credit rating if you pay your bills on time every month - and settle them in full each time.  Due to some strange alchemy in the minds of these credit people that is not enough and the presence of an unused high credit card limit will now be regarded as a danger signal, and  they are about to get a whole lot more people in their sights.

The government has installed a new credit reporting system and draft legislation released this week seems to ensure that it will force the banks to join and bring with them about eighty percent of all credit lending.  This legislation has the intent in making the banks comply by this coming July.

A couple of decades ago the banks were criticised for automatically upgrading customers credit limits - unasked.   It was common to get a congratulatory letter from the bank, praising the way you handle your account and advising that your credit limit for Visa or MasterCard had been increased as a reward.

Few people wrote back and rejected this upgrade.  It brought a nice feeling and most people took it as a sign of their enhanced credit status and it was comforting to know that such credit was immediately available in any emergency.

In Australia, the average credit limit is now $ 9143 and this is the highest since June, 2012 when credit card reform required consent from customers to increase limits.  The days of these automatic credits being foisted on customers were over.  Credit card statements now warn of both the length of time to remove the debt and the interest that will accrue if the customer pays just the bare minimum each month.

The credit revolution hit Australia when the banks combined to offer credit by way of " Bankcard " ! Prior to that - when the advent of television saw the massive purchase of television receivers - the usual form of payment was called  "  Hire Purchase "  or more colloquially - the " Never-Never " !
Not all people are good money managers and many got into severe financial difficulties and found that credit was a trap from which it was difficult to emerge.

Now it seems we are entering a new cycle.  If you have a high but unused credit limit that seems to infer you doubt your ability to repay - or it would be maxed to the limit.   Perhaps the intelligence of these credit assessment companies is still stuck in the same rut that threw the world into financial recession back in 2008 !

War in the Building Industry !

A few decades ago the building industry in Australia was in absolute chaos as militant building unions used their muscle to disrupt jobs to force unreasonable demands on employers.  It was a tactic that caused massive cost over-runs and forced several of our biggest construction companies into bankruptcy.

One of the feared disruptions was to declare a safety issue in the middle of a concrete pour - and have the union members walk off the job.   It is essential that the entire floor of a high rise building be completed in a single operation and if there is an interruption to the concrete pour the work done has to be jackhammered and removed - and that entire floor restarted.  That can increase costs by hundreds of thousands of dollars.

A similar tactic was to declare a concrete supplier " black " for some contrived reason and have union members refuse its trucks access to the site - halfway through a concrete pour.  Not only was the pour interrupted, those trucks were stuck with concrete loads that can only solidify unless they are emptied in a reasonable cycle of time.  The unions had the power to cause massive cost over-runs and union bosses didn't seem to care that their actual workers were losing wages.

The unions were hauled before an industrial court and an agreement hammered out and there has been relative peace in the building industry since, but militancy is again emerging in the Sydney building scene as union tactics try to force a building company to sign a " pattern enterprise agreement " that is highly favourable to the union.

The militant CFMEU has faced a Federal court which found that it had threatened action against  a company with " intent to coerce  ".  The court said it sent a simple message that formwork companies were to sign that enterprise agreement proposed by the CFMEU, or the union would pick one of them and smash the company selected.

Evidence before the court cited an instance when CFMEU officials deliberately kicked down a safety rail before instructing workers to leave the site because of the absence of safety rails.   Cement trucks were also stopped from entering a site by CFMEU officials sitting on their bonnets to prevent safety movement.  In each of these instances the objective was to force the signing of an enterprise agreement.

The court has the power to decertify a union that disobeys the law and remove its officials from office.   That is an action that it usually is reluctant to take but this return to illegal tactics of coercion will be disruptive to the national economy and needs to be stopped before it spreads to other union  groups.

It is illustrative that the very militant head of the entire union movement in Australia is likely to get political endorsement to run for a seat in the Senate.   Perhaps that says something about how union militancy is viewed in political circles.

A New Arms Race !

There is an old Middle East saying that is pertinent in todays western world.  "  The enemy of my enemy - is my friend ".  North Korea has long been a hermit kingdom, ruled by the Kim  family as a  personal dictatorship from the end of the second world war and now emerging as the newest member of the nuclear club of nations.

Its clash with the power of the United States over the testing of nuclear weapons and the development of delivery systems has led to world wide sanctions that are crippling a small nation that has problems even feeding its citizens.  China has finally agreed to tighten the screws and choke off the oil supply and that may eventually bring North Korea to a standstill.

Fears are emerging that in desperation North Korea has been selling its missile technology to Myanmar and that Asian nation now has multiple rocket launchers and surface to air missiles, including the Hwasong 5 which are capable of mobile launching and have a range of 300 kilometres. Weapon sales have probably delivered a $255 million dividend to the struggling North Korean economy.

Myanmar has been accused of " ethnic cleansing " when nearly a million Rohingya Muslims were driven over the border to Bangladesh by the Myanmar military.  While it now has a nominal civilian government headed by Aung San Suu Kyi, the military junta retains the real power and the acquisition of advanced weaponry would be insurance against outside interference.

Sanctions are a better option to all out war, but North Kora has the ability to sell both the nuclear bomb and the means to deliver it to countries the United States and the western world consider to be " enemies ", and they are spread in many parts of the world.

World leaders shudder at the thought of Syria armed with nuclear weapons or the bomb falling into the hands of Palestinians in conflict with Israel.   Iran has entered an agreement to not develop its own nuclear capabilities, but the option to buy that technology ready made would be tempting.  The imposition of sanctions on North Korea has made that frightening possibility a nightmare for the United Nations.

After the second world war the age of the atom was confined to just five countries and just a handful of other responsible nations forced their way into the club.   For the first time, the nuclear genie is out of the bottle and a nuclear armed nation has a spiteful reason to make this awesome means of mass destruction available to regimes with fanatical reasons to not hold back on its use.

It seems that this threat is in direct relation to the success of the sanctions imposed on North Korea.  The more they strangle the North Korean economy, the greater the reason for that small nation to remain economically afloat by selling its nuclear technology to eager buyers.

It seems that the Doomsday clock has edged even closer to midnight !

5G is Coming - Fast !

No wonder the National Broadband network is desperate to get the work finished and have subscribers connected before 5G  becomes a reality.   Many billions of public money has been invested in the NBN and there seems to be a good chance that when 5G arrives it will make the NBN obsolete.

The NBN was more political than practical and it has certainly not lived up to the promises made when it was envisaged.  It is miles behind schedule and vastly over budget and the Internet speeds promised have not eventuated.  Many subscribers are unhappy with the results.

It looks like the NBN rollout will be completed by 2020 and that is when there is the expectation that 5G will arrive on the Australian scene.  Telstra, Optus, Vodafone and probably TPG will have tests running in 2019 and there is an expectation that 5G may be a reality in 2020.

5G is expected to be light years ahead of the present standard of mobile phones and it meshes well will the increasing popularity of hand held devices gaining the ascendency.  The crystal ball gazers seem to think that the NBN may end up being the choice of the business community for heavy transmission traffic, leaving the bulk of personal communications in the hands of the 5G network.

The technical experts warn that the present crop of mobile phones will not be compatible when the 5G  network arrives and kitting out to receive its benefits will be costly.   The industry is tight lipped on what accessing this new technology may cost but it is likely that no individual provider will gain an advantage by being the first to provide the new service.  These devices will be made by Apple and Samsung and consequently 5G provision  will probably be simultaneous.

There seems little doubt that the loser will be the Australian taxpayer.  The NBN was originally expected to return a profit dividend but that now seems unlikely. Connections were originally directly to ever home and business, but as a matter of economics that has been reduced to a " to the node " model where the final connection is by way of the old copper wire that provides the link to the landline phone.   That weakness can not accommodate the high speeds desired.

Industry insiders scoff at predictions that the NBN will become a white elephant.  They claim that mobile can never hope to compete with fixed broadband on a cost basis and that our ever expanding need for data and faster speeds will push both systems to the limit.  They predict that the " internet of things " will bring connection demand well beyond our present imagination.

A decade or so ago even a basic, clunky old mobile phone was a novelty.  Today, those " public telephone " boxes on public streets have almost vanished.  It is a rare pedestrian who does not have a mobile phone in their hand - or in their pocket.   The mail delivery is fast going the same way as the Pony Express.

It looks like 5G is going to be what the sound barrier was to aircraft design.  Communication is going to take us - faster and further - and whatever it costs will be worth it !

The New " Slave Trade " !

A very long time ago we had little need for childcare in Australia.  That was an era where few married women actually had a paid job.  Their occupation  was termed " homemaker " and a woman's lot was deemed to be taking care of the children and preparing wholesome meals for her " breadwinner " husband.

That world no loner exists.  We are now a two income family and the economy is based on both partners contributing to the purchase of a home as well as funding the country by their tax contributions.  The nuclear family has fewer kids and there is an expectation that most children will attain a higher education and gain qualifications from a university.

When a trickle of married women started to enter the workforce, childcare usually meant enlisting Grandma in that role.  The first actual childcare centres were usually a totally unqualified woman minding several children in her home - for a fee.  Today, that has morphed into an industry which demands that childcare workers have rigid qualifications and that centres meet standards.  It is now tasked with " early learning " and preparing kids for the years of school that lay ahead.

Childcare is now a heavily registered industry. The government stipulates how many children can be accommodated and the staff ratio required.  The premises must meet standards for safety and hygiene and staff levels must meet stipulated standards which require university level training.  As a consequence, the fees for each child attending are a significant impost on family incomes.

Unfortunately, this is not reflected in the income that childcare workers receive.  The staff are predominantly women and despite the need for qualifications the pay rates are far lower than in competitive occupations.  These are people who are " educators " and a worker with  qualification 111 will get just $ 21.29 an hour compared with the $ 40.92 received by workers in most other industries.

This is a " Catch 22 " situation.   If childcare workers pay rises to competitive levels, the user fee rises and those fees are already at crisis levels for families earning average incomes, and this is despite generous subsidy levels bestowed on the industry by the government.   It is evident that the Fair Work Commission has a tiger by the tail and faces an impossible decision.

We are now facing a one day stoppage in March.  Childcare workers will walk off the job in a strike to bring their pay dispute to public attention.   Many centres will close, or become ineffective with just management covering essentials and families are urged to keep their children at home, even if that means losing a days pay themselves.

Unfortunately, the only way to a solution seems to be an unfortunate compromise.   The Fair Work Commission needs to grant a pay rise but it will probably fall short of parity with other industries and that will need to be balanced by an increase in the numbers permitted in childcare groups.  That seems to be the only way the circle can be squared - and the obvious outcome is that the quality of care for each child will decrease.

Otherwise, employing dedicated and highly qualified people at far below the accepted pay standard is simply a new form of the slave trade !

Hidden Dangers !

Have you ever wondered why your face feels so fresh when you wash it each morning ?  Or why toothpaste is so efficient at clearing away the gunk that seems to coat your teeth overnight ?  Despite both soap and toothpaste feeling incredibly slippery they contain tiny abrasive micro-beads and until recently these have been a form of plastic.

Unfortunately, that is not good for either the planet,or us humans that live on it.  The residue from a face wash or a tooth clean goes down the plug hole and eventually finds its way into the worlds oceans via the sewers, and from there is ingested by sea creatures that enter the human food chain.

The scientists discovered that these micro-beads tend to adhere to tissue in the human body and be attacked by our natural defence mechanisms, resulting in scar tissue. As a result, about eighty percent of soap and toothpaste manufacturers have discontinued using this form of exfoliate.  That includes giants such as Unilever, Johnson and Johnson, Coles, Woolworths and Aldi.

Plastic has been replaced with natural substances such as silica, pumice, clays, rice powder and fruit kernels.  Now there are new warnings from the science community.  It seems that replacing plastic with natural material has changed nothing in regard to these substances entering the human food chain, and becoming a health hazard.

Now the race is on to develop some sort of substance that will have exfoliate qualities but which will quickly degenerate during the sewer treatment process and become harmless when it reaches the oceans.   This seems to be a problem exacerbated by city living.   The waste water in country towns usually was dissipated back into the soil and never found its way to an ocean.  Unfortunately, not a practical solution for city life.

Another note from the scientists that will make mobile phone users ponder.   There has been a lot of conjecture as to whether radio frequency radiation is harmful to the users health.  Those who are constant users have the habit of holding a mobile phone in close proximity to their brain and exposing it to what may be a hazard.

The US National Technology people conducted an interesting experiment involving rats and mice.  This was a two year experiment in  which each rodent was bathed in the radiation for ten minutes a time, followed by a ten minute break for  nine hours each day.

Interestingly, the mice showed no indication of health problems but radiation  exposure produced a different result with the rats.  Both male and female rats were more likely to experience cardiomyopathy, a disease that causes damage to heart tissue.  In addition, male rats exposed to high levels of radiation  had an increased incidence of malignant tumours in the tissue that covers nerves to the heart.  Strikingly, the rats exposed to radiation lived longer than the unexposed rats used as a control measure.

Make of that what you will.  There was no indication of radio frequency exposure causing brain cancer - which had been a worry to many people - but different outcomes between mice and rats is hard to explain.   The size difference seems to infer that children may be less harmed than adults by the frequent use of mobile phones.

The message seems to be unclear.  Perhaps the wise will insist on brevity in mobile phone use - and deliver a bonus to all others who happen to be within audible distance !

Secrecy Laws !

In many parts of the world being a journalist is a very dangerous occupation.  Writing a story that criticises the government can land the writer in prison and in some instances a persistent critic may simply " disappear " and be never heard of again.  The number of countries with a free press is ever tightening.

Here in Australia a Senate Committee is enquiring into the future of public interest journalism.  This new national security bill is proposing that a twenty year prison term would be the penalty for communicating or dealing with protected government information.

That has all news organizations worried.  It seems like the thin edge of the wedge.  The wording suggests guilt by simply " dealing with " protected information and that encompasses editors and administrative staff in addition to the actual writer.  Media organizations claim that this could see people prosecuted for simply receiving  classified information or enquiring about it.

At present, journalists are protected by a defence not extended to others as long as their reporting is deemed " fair and accurate " and " in the public interest ".  There is a doubt that this protection will apply to the new secrecy law and consequently it may be used to mask the exposure of graft and corruption that often emerges when a whistleblower talks to a journalist.

Silencing news organizations is a familiar tactic of repressive governments around the world and it is impeding the information flow in Ethiopia, Egypt, Zimbabwe and Turkey.   Our biggest trading partner - China - has a " great firewall " to insulate its citizens from the Internet and any form of criticism can bring an instant reprisal.

One of the problems is the interpretation of " government protected " information.  To most people that encompasses matters of defence and possible trade negotiations, but it can be extended to peripheral matters if whatever government is in office chooses to take that coursed of action.  It is essential that exactly what is covered by this new law is explicitly spelt out with detailed clarity.

Usually, the law system in this country leaves that to the courts.  Our laws rely on court precedence to establish matters of legality and the final arbitrator is the High court of Australia.  Unfortunately, litigants can suffer long bouts of detention and loss while matters make their way through the process of hearings and appeal.

The attorney general claims that this law change is basically " upgrading " existing law which has been in place for many years.  Many experienced journalists claim that it breaks new ground and this specific twenty year penalty takes the incarceration issue out of the hands of the courts.

We gag the news flow at our peril. A free press shines a bright light into many hidden corners, sometimes to the discomfort of those in government.   Without it, we lose a means of  " keeping the bastards  honest " !

Alzheimer's Blood Test !

The news that a consortium of Australian and Japanese scientists have developed a blood test that may warn of the inevitability of Dementia developing thirty years into the future may not be good news for many people.   We welcome early detection of disease when that brings the prospect of a cure, but at this stage Alzheimer's is virtually a death sentence.

Apparently this blood test uses a highly specialised mass spectrometry technique to measure the low concentrations of a peptide in the blood samples and this reliably predicts that the patient will develop a Dementia disease such as Alzheimer's, perhaps thirty years into the future.

This test may be a help to laboratories seeking to develop a cure for Dementia.  At this stage it is blamed on an unusual protein build-up in the brain but as time passes the disease develops from mild forgetfulness to the full ravages of a return to childhood, with incontinence and total memory loss. Sufferers often have no memory of their former life and do not recognise their own spouse or children.

The problem is that once this test is added to the technique available to the medical profession in evaluating their patients it can quickly assume a threat for which it was not intended.   A multinational company reviewing a short list of candidates for CEO appointment might demand they all be subjected to this test as part of that selection process.  They would certainly hesitate to place the wealth of a company and the jobs of thousands of people into the care of a person whose analysis and decision making will have a certain impairment factor because of inevitable Dementia.

Even hiring a young man or woman at the start of their career will involve a long training regimen and expense which an employer would hope may be repaid by retaining their services by progress along the management chain.  Often such a selection involves a medical examination and it would be tempting to include that Dementia test in the specification.

Clarifying one of life's mysteries can even intrude into the process of selecting one's life partner.  We have long entered the realm of the two income family and those intending to have children could insist on this test to ensure that both are capable of sustaining the needs that lay ahead.  The nuclear family involves a high load of debt and the wise would ensure that this is sustainable by both partners continuing in good health.

Selecting a career path starts these days towards the end of the school system and should a student learn that they must eventually suffer Dementia that can drastically alter their attitude to life.  It would certainly diminish enthusiasm to begin the gruelling grind that is a necessity for most professional careers and may end the prospect of that person starting their own business.   Some may argue that if life is going to end in Dementia, riding the surf waves is a more fulfilling career choice.

The problem is that whatever is invented - can not be uninvented.   A reliable Dementia diagnostic tool is fast becoming a reality and once it passes into the blood analysis system it is no longer under the control of the individual patient.

Perhaps there are some areas of the future that are better to be unknown !

A New " Space Race " !

Remember the days of the race to space between the United States and the Soviet Union  ?  We were treated to television views of massive rockets lifting off from the launch pad - and sometimes spectacular explosions when they misfired.

The biggest rocket from that era was Saturn V which put men on the moon and it was capable of lifting a payload of almost 150 tonnes.  Since then the rockets have been getting smaller, and now a new space race has evolved between American billionaires Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos.

Musk's Space-X has had success in retrieving and reusing his Falcon Heavy rockets and they are now lifting NASA satellites into orbit and supplying the International Space station.  Musk has the ambition of soon taking tourists on space jaunts and establishing a colony on Mars and he is building a rocket nearly as big as Saturn V which retired from service in 1973.

This bigger version of the Falcon Heavy is seventy metres tall and is powered by 28 engines, each capable of delivering 22.8m newtons of thrust.  It will be the equivalent of harnessing eighteen Boeing 747 jet liners in a team to pull a 64 tonne payload into near earth orbit.  This is half what the Saturn V could manage but it is more than double what the present NASA work horse - the Delta IV Heavy - can lift.

This bigger rocket will make a test flight within the next few days and consequently it will carry just a nominal payload.   Elon Musk is also the head of the Tesla electric car company and he intends to use this test launch to enhance the Tesla advertising potential.   The payload that will be carried into orbit will be his personal Tesla cherry red sports car which he hopes will spend eternity circling around the sun.

Musk has set his sights on Mars and already work has started on an even bigger rocket system which is designated " BFR ". Little is known about the specification, beyond the payload which will be designed to lift about 250 tonnes into space, far in excess of both the Chinese Long March 9 and Russian Energiya 5V which are expected to debut in 2028 and lift about 150 tonnes.

Musk has set a launch date of 2022 for the BFR.  Due to his irreverent sense of humour BFR stands for " Big Fucking Rocket " but students writing essays on the space race might be wise to omit this detail from their submissions.

NASA is also back in the big rocket business with its SLS with a 70 tonne payload, but not expected on the launch pad until 2029. This " Space Launch System " will enable NASA to get back to the moon and probably eventually to Mars, but it seems that the space race is now open to a field of contenders.

After the Moon landings the world lost interest but the prospect of a space colony on Mars will certainly rekindle a new enthusiasm.   The prospect of an earth station on another world that we can actually see with a telescope will open new bragging rights for whoever firstly attains this goal.

The Road Safety Enigma !

We just had a horror year for deaths on New South Wales roads and this new year is not starting well.  On the first long weekend holiday, crash deaths doubled from last year when twenty-eight people lost their lives.  The statistics tell a compelling story.

More than fifty percent of fatal crashes in New South Wales occurred on high speed country roads, while high speed fatalities in Sydney, Newcastle and greater Wollongong are unchanged since 2010.  There is a very obvious way of calming speeding on country roads which is already in place and awaiting the go-ahead from the state government.

It is called point-to-point speed camera technology - and it already applies to truck movements on our road system.  Cameras record the number plates of traffic at numerous points on the highway system and the computers compare the time factor for using legal speed to reach the next camera recording.  If the vehicle reaches that point too soo, it is obviously speeding and a ticket is on the way in the mail.

This device to limit speeding is in use for all road traffic in every other state - except New South Wales.   Here, it only applies to truck movements and pressure is building for it to be extended to cover all forms of road movement.   Unfortunately, while it may be effective, it will be wildly unpopular.

The only other option would seem to be a lower legal speed limit on all undivided roads.  At present, multi lane divided roads usually have a speed limit of 110 and lesser roads are limited to 100.   The sheer misery of driving long distances at a speed of 90 or even 80 kph is a misery few could tolerate.

It would seem reasonable to retain that 100 kph limit on country roads and insist drivers obey it by using point to point speed camera technology.  One compelling factor is that the cameras are already in place and no expenditure is required - and it could be up and running from the moment a decision is made.

We would simply have to learn to drive at the speed limit - or be taxed off the road by cumulative penalties.  Demerit points are accumulated with speeding fines.  A few decades ago we drove at 60 kph on city streets and for safety reasons that was reduced to 50.   Now that is even reduced to 40 outside schools during twice daily student movement times.  We ignore those limits at our peril.

There are few drivers who do not exceed the speed limit on what they regard as a " safe "  road they know so well.  If point to point is adopted for all traffic, those camera gantries will be a sure reminder to use speed control - or suffer the consequences.  The vast majority of drivers will - however reluctantly - obey the speed limit as a necessity.

Eventually, self driving cars will eliminate " human error " which is the cause of most road crashes. Our ever increasing population is coupled with the greater number of cars on our roads.  It will be hard for any government not to adopt this traffic calming but unpopular measure.