Both Fire and Road Safety !

 At the end of the 2020 disastrous bushfire summer this blog carried pictures for the first and only time.  They illustrated a safety initiative that had taken place in Victoria to insulate public highways from future fire risk and drew comparison with the unchanged situation in New South Wales.

That difference was compelling.   In Victoria, all trees had been cut back forty metres from the roadway on both sides of the road, increasing the line of sight for motorists and adding light on cloudy, gloomy days.  It also totally eliminates the risk of bushfires closing the road because of burning trees blocking the escape of people evacuating fire areas.

In New South Wales those same trees are allowed to grow within a metre of the road surface.  Reports of road deaths often carry news that for a given reason the vehicle left the road - and hit a tree.  It stands to reason if there was forty metres of clear space beside the road many such incidents would be less fatal.

Now we hear the amazing news that this initiative was also planned for New South Wales and was ordered by our Transport Minister. Application of that order was the responsibility of the Transport for New South Wales Secretary - who has now been sacked.

This issue has been raised in the New South Wales parliament, with a written reply from the Transport Secretary claiming that only high risk fire affected trees had been removed because of the " limited powers " in existence to clear a forty metre zone under the Roads Act 1993.

Australia always has had a bushfire risk and our leading scientists claim the fire season will be more extreme and last longer because of global warming.   Our highways are the prime evacuation routes when fires cause residents to seek shelter, and yet are first casualties when fire causes trees to fall and block these escape routes.

It is important that this initiative be actioned before the next fire season, and it could resolve a problem for the sawmill industry. Most of the trees requiring removal are big, healthy specimens and this clearing should be undertaken in conjunction with the sawmill industry.  There is every reason this resource should be milled to provide the raw material required by the building industry.

The difference is that loggers generally cut trees leaving a stump a metre high for regrowth.  As the Victorian example clearly shows, clearing beside roads requires the trees to be cut at ground level to remove a collision hazard.

If it is necessary to amend the Roads Act to allow this to be implemented, that is a task the state parliament should attend to with urgency.  Many of our main roads were constructed in the horse and cart days when road speeds were minimal.  It is almost suicidal to contemplate cars driving at a hundred kph with massive trees just a metre from the road edge.

This is a necessary initiative, from both a fire safety and a driver safety point of view.   Its implementation is long overdue in this state !

Living Behind a Sea Wall !

 In 2016 a weather event off the Australian east coast resulted in huge waves washing onto the New South Wales coast.  The Manly ferry run was cancelled because of the seas surging through the Gap and it quickly became apparent that this wild surf was going to do immense damage to our beaches.

The degree of damage could be termed " catastrophic " when applied to Collaroy on our northern beaches. The huge waves eroded the sand from this beach and pushed inland. They intruded into the gardens between homes and the beach and media photos showed a complete home swimming pool dislodged into the surf, and then they began undermining the foundations of homes backing onto the beach.

Homeowners were forced to evacuate and for a time it seemed that many homes would not only be destroyed but the seas would breach Pittwater road, the main arterial connection between the northern suburbs and the city and underneath which gas, sewage and communications were located.

Some home owners took emergency action by having contractors drop rock and concrete waste into the void to create a sea wall, but were ordered by the council to remove it.  This was done without an appropriate development approval and fortunately the seas abated before any homes were lost.

For five long year residents have demanded action to preserve their properties and that has included several new storm events that increased the danger, and now work has started on a sea wall that stretches from Collaroy to North Narrabeen and will protect  forty-nine private properties, together with public land areas, a surf club and a car park.  The cost is estimated at $ 24.85 million and fifty-six percent will be contributed by the land owners involved.

That works out at a cost of $ 282,000 for each resident and at this stage it is not entirely certain that all the residents will be able to raise that sort of money.  Another sticking point is that the design and type of sea wall may not be what the residents originally wanted.  It was taken out of their hands and designed by a consortium of council and the government, both of which are contributing ten percent of the cost.

Before this disastrous invasion of the sea, homes backing onto the beach had easy private access.  There was just a low sand dune between the beach and their gardens but this new sea wall will be very substantial and direct access may be blocked.   It will certainly have some impact on home values.

It also sets a precedent. Science warns us that global warming will deliver rising sea levels and more extreme storms and similar damage to that Collaroy disaster is likely along many beach fronts in the future.  Much of our housing facing the sea is built on a sand base and this sort of problem may become widespread in the future.  It may be necessary to back all our beaches with a similar sea wall.

Homes near beaches bring premium prices, but we would be well advised to take the liabilities into account.   In the event of invasion from the sea, the cost of a sea wall will be shared by property owners, and finding $282,000 would distress many people financially.

The Police Burden !

 Two feuding crime families are at war with one another in Sydney and this has degenerated  into their homes being riddled with gun fire at night, and the police have entered this fray with a terror tactic of their own.

What criminals need to know is that the police are the biggest gang on the block and members of these crime families will experience unrelenting application of all and every law on the law books to make their lives a misery, and that can include crimes such as " J-walking " to having the distance they park their car from the kerb measured in millimetres to support a fine.

It is a tactic the police have used before to pull crime families into line.  All family members get this treatment and any activity out of doors becomes subject to surveillance and application of laws that are being specifically enforced. It quickly becomes a psychological burden that adds stress within the family unit.

Unfortunately, much police time is spent on trying to maintain peace between warring neighbours and calming domestic disputes in Sydney suburbs.  The degree of animosity that can be generated over trivial incidents is amazing and sometimes leads to ongoing violence which develops into clan feuds.

The development of social media like Facebook has taken many of these suburban disputes into the law courts.   In one instance one Balmain neighbour sued another for what she termed  " defamation " after a comment made on Facebook during a Current Affairs broadcast.   This resulted in a $ 360,000 damages decision.

This was later overturned on appeal when it was learned that the guilty party had blocked a ventilation vent between their two properties by spraying it with expanding foam.  This vent dispersed vapours from the kitchen stove and created both a fire danger, because the foam was flammable and a toxic danger because it allowed dangerous fumes to build up in the kitchen.

Intervening in domestic disputes is another activity that police hate.   They are usually never simple and often both parties resent the police presence, but they have been called by alarmed neighbour because of the yelling and screaming disturbing the peace.

In many cases, such interventions become a regular event but the injured party refuses to press charges and police leave knowing the issue is unresolved.  Sometimes the fury engendered later results to death or serious injury and the police are criticised.

Unfortunately household disputes seem likely to become more prevalent.  New homes are being shoe horned onto ever smaller blocks of land and people now live in closer proximity to their neighbours.  This sharply increases the opportunity for disputes.

At least when these disputes lead to open warfare with firearms the police have the legal powers and the numbers to take necessary action.   Those warring families in western Sydney are about to experience a police blitz that will make every waking moment very uncomfortable.

Missing Money !

    It is a story as predictable as any era of history.   When an event disrupts the  business cycle, interest rates retreat and the people who rely on the interest from their capital desperately seek some sort of investment that will preserve their way of life.

The event that  sent interest rates plunging this time was a pandemic which saw our Reserve bank lower official interest rates to an abyssmal low.  This hit service industries like pubs and cafes particularly hard and stopped crowds from pouring into cinemas and other forms of entertainment.  In particular, it decimated the job market and sent government spending into the red  as relief money was desperately needed.

For over a year a safe form of investment that pays a decent interest rate has been impossible to find, and the rumour mill has bestowed one investment adviser with near genius capabilities.  Against the run of business predictability this unlicensed financial adviser was thought capable of returning invested money at a far better interest rate than the banks were offering.

Now that woman has mysteriously disappeared - and so has the invested money !  There was panic in the investment community last November when she could not be quickly located and ASAIC closed down her accounts and seized more than a million dollars worth of luxury goods and jewellery.

But it got far worse as time progressed.  It was initially estimated that this woman had defrauded her investors of about  twenty five million dollars with most of it spent on her lavish lifestyle, but those figures appear to be consistently low.  It is now thought that the loss may grow to several hundred million dollars.

This woman lived in a rented mansion at Dover Heights, with her hairdresser husband and their children.   Her husband's $ 300,000 Audi has just been repossessed and the court has frozen further living expenses for her family. 

This debacle underlines the danger of paying heed to rumours of financial genius and moving outside traditional investment circles.  The big end of Australian industry has been performing normally throughout this coronavirus pandemic and the arrival of vaccines will enable the service sector to recover fairly quickly.

Even now, the banks are starting to offer a better return on investment money than the rate struck by the Reserve bank and that interest rate will grow quickly as industry seizes the expansion opportunities offering.  The actual interest rate is governed by the banks need for money to extend their lending portfolios and this is quite different to the needs of the Reserve bank.

It is now highly likely that the interest rate of the Reserve bank and the Commercial banks will differ sharply in the months ahead.  It will certainly be some time before we see the rates paying on term deposits return to what we consider " normal " levels, but we would be well advised to remember that old adage that applies to the money market.

If it looks too good to be true - then it probably is !

Weather Danger !

 The ice storm that dumped record snow on Texas and other southern parts of the United States is thought to be caused by global warming.  The increasing heat of summer is disrupting the jet streams and in the northern winter they are unable to contain the cold from the Arctic from penetrating further south.

This ice storm has delivered a sharply increasing death toll.  Millions of people are without electricity or natural gas because the power generating plants and gas wells are frozen over.  A desperate system is  made worse by people trying to stay alive by using outdoor BBQ equipment indoors and falling victim to carbon monoxide gas.

Deaths are also occurring where people run the engine of their cars to use the car heaters to create a warm shelter for the family.    When the car is snowed in, enclosed in the garage, the exhaust delivers that same  carbon monoxide death to the family.

We think of Global Warming as something that delivers ever hotter summers, bur science predicts that it will also deliver extremes at both ends of the weather spectrum, and we are just as vulnerable here in Australia.

Last winter, a news item drew public attention to a weather phenomenon.  It snowed in the Tasmanian city of Launceston, and the snow stayed on the ground for many days.  What was remarkable is that Launceston has only once ever had a few snow flurries back in the 1920's and this heavy snow could be a warning of things to come if global warming persists.

That ice storm in Texas was the unexpected and the United States is paying a heavy price for being unprepared.  Perhaps last years snow event in Launceston is a harbinger southern Australia could experience a similar event and such an event in Tasmania and Victoria could be catastrophic.

Our cities are not built to shield homes from heavy snow falls.  The roof line of European cities is sharply inclined to shed snow, but we have a temperate climate and homes here have a softer pitch.  It is probable that most homes would not be able to sustain the weight of a metre of snow on their roofs - and collapse.

It is doubtful if householders would have the capacity to shovel snow off their roofs to reduce the weight load in such an emergency and we certainly don't have emergency services in place to tackle a job of that magnitude.  We are extremely vulnerable to a snow event as is happening in Texas.

It is impossible to predict either the timing or the extent of weather changes caused by a permanent change in temperature.  We could get a weather phenomenon that delivered a winter snow storm as far north as the city of Sydney and that would bring this nation to a standstill.

If nothing else, it delivers a clear warning that we need to take global warming seriously..  Mother Nature has just delivered the Australian eastern seabord an unusually cool and wet summer.   We would be wise to expect the unexpected when winter arrives !

A House Divided !

 Perhaps the British Royal Family have survived when other monarchies have fallen by the wayside because they kept a strict reserve that made them a mystery to their subjects.  What happens within Buckingham Palace was kept strictly free of comment in newspapers for over a century.  

That has now changed dramatically, with the Queen's grandson and his bride severing links with the Palace and choosing to live on the other side of the Atlantic Ocean.  The Queen has wisely accepted their decision but has sharply drawn a very clear line between their private way of life and the duties expected of " Royals ".

Prince Harry and Meghan will keep their titles but be free of Royal duties.  They will certainly be newsworthy because they are the Duke and Duchess of Sussex  but the novelty aspect of their marriage will wear off.

The world press was interested when a British prince announced that he would marry an American commoner who was not only of mixed blood but a movie actress.  It quickly became obvious that this created tensions with other members of the Royal family.  The common " Royal Reserve " had been breached and Meghan did not fit comfortably into the Royal tableau.

Harry and Meghan had a child together, and another one is on the way.  To the Americans these children and their parents will be seen as " celebrities " and exposed to the full glare of the media which seeks fame and fortune from producing titillating footage to entertain the public.  In the creation of news coverage, truth is usually the first casualty.

British royalty survived the endless Charles and Diana scandals and it is inevitable that because of her age the Queen will be replaced by Prince Charles.  Perhaps his conduct when married to Princess Diana will be unhelpful in cementing his support on the throne and it is likely that the world press will badger Harry and Meghan to comment on the wisdom or otherwise of his decisions.

Whether they like it or not, it seems that Harry and Meghan will be cast in a critical role of sharing their viewpoint of events in Britain with their American public.  They are no longer funded  by British public money and will need to earn their own living in America and that may not always be in tandem with the views from Buckingham  Palace.

Despite his training and time in the British army, Harry is no longer entitled to hold rank or wear a uniform of his former command level.  He is now essentially a " civilian " and in that respect he will miss the glamour that went with the job.  That will be in sharp contrast to his brother, who will keep his military connections in expectation of eventually serving as the British King. 

The British Royal family has survived previous differences.  A king abdicated over an unwelcome marriage choice and Harry and Meghan's decision to live in the United States will again rock the House of Windsor.

How it all works out will be  subject matter for the history books !

Public Hysteria !

 This weekend, thousands of people took up signs and marched through the streets of Australian cities in protest against the vaccination campaign which starts today.  This protest has a civil rights theme.  The protest movement claims that they will be forced to vaccinate because only the vaccinated will be able to hold down a job or enter many forms of entertainment.

Some express doubts about the safety of this medication.  We already have protest groups who refuse to have their children vaccinated against a range of diseases that in earlier years caused many child deaths.  They make spurious claims that these vaccinations are responsible for spreading diseases  which retard mental growth despite this being rejected by the medical profession.

That " anti Vacc " campaign has been assisted by the Facebook phenomenon which allows ordinary citizens to exchange their views widely.   The most scurrilous claims are often believed because there is no overview to bring lies to account.  As a result, many child centres refuse to enrol unvaccinated children as a public safety measure.

The vast majority of the Australian populations will gladly bare their arm to received a vaccination against this coronavirus that has swept the world.  We need a high proportion of the population to be treated to achieve " herd immunity " and when that happens we can dispense with face masks and most of the restrictions that have made life a misery for the past year.

In this early stage of the inoculation campaign accepting the needle is voluntary.  Initially, it will be offered first to health workers tending coronavirus  victims and people in aged care and nursing homes where the virus delivers the highest death rate.  It will progressively spiral downwards until the entire population is covered.

There are plans to issue personal accreditation with each vaccination which will allow people to personally prove they have received their shots. How that will be received by employer groups remains to be seen, but it seems likely that some may refuse to employ the unvaccinated.  It is also possible that entry to group entertainment may be restricted to those who can show a vaccination certificate.

Perhaps the parallel to consider here is the annual influenza injection.   Each year the formulae is tweaked to cover the strains of flu expected and this reduces the severity of the annual infection, but a high number of the population do not apply this remedy.  As a result, every winter we have a flu epidemic run rampant in the community.

The government runs an expensive advertising campaign urging people to get their flu shots and the flu kills many elderly people each year.  We will probably have pockets of this coronvirus active in the community amongst people who have refused vaccination.  Whether the government will enact legislation to make vaccination against the coronvirus compulsory depends on what ratio of take up comes from this vaccine release.

The more public hysteria mounts and results in a larger refusal rate, the more likely that will eventually happen..  The wise will evaluate the facts, and make their own decision  !

Decision Time !

 Back in the years of the second world war, Wollongong was known as a " dirty " city because it was home to our biggest steel making plant and several coal mines. A very large proportion of the work force were steel workers or coal miners and the steel produced was an important contribution to the war effort.

The steel industry survived the massive over production of steel from China that forced the closure of many famous steel plants on the world scene and now it has modernised and become one of the few remaining producers of steel in Australia.

This steel workforce has shrunk as the company has invested in automation but is still providing important pay packets to the local economy.  The future of coal mining in the Wollongong area is less certain. Most of the coal with easy access has been mined and expansion is needed if the mines are to continue, and that creates a host of new problems.

Mining today is by the " longwall " method in which an automatic mining machine leaves a cavity from where the coal was removed.  The ground above slowly " subsides " to fill that cavity and if expansion is granted it will be under existing housing and that subsidence will cause enormous damage to brick and tile housing above.

Where the land is free of housing, the mining is likely to divert the water flow from into water catchment and reduce the amount of storage needed to sustain the city supply.  Subsidence caused creek beds to crack and the water slips away underground.

To further complicate the situation, the steel works relies on this same high grade coal to fuel its blast furnaces and the Wollongong economy would be shattered if it lost both the steel works and all those lucrative coal mining pay packets.   There is enormous pressure from the miners and their coal unions to grant permission for mining extensions.

This is happening at the same time as the world is desperate to control global warming and to do that we need to reduce burning fossil fuels - and that means oil and coal.  Australia is one of the world's biggest coal exporters and recently we have opened several new mines.  Extending those Wollongong mines will further increase the very footprint we need to reduce.

Those decisions rest with the Federal Department of Planning who need to decide if our steelworks can survive drawing its coal from other Australian sources with consequent additional transport costs.  Without extension approval, several local coal mines will eventually close and many well paid mining jobs will be lost.  That will certainly impact on the Wollongong business community.

It is possible to mine below where new housing is planned by limiting the weight and type of building material used but damage to aquifers and existing water courses are inevitable if approval goes ahead.

These will be political decisions and they may decide whether we join the world order to stabilize the world temperature or continue to give self interest our main priority !

Rock Fishing Safety !

 A roc k shelf on the waterfront at Port Kembla's " Hill Sixty " is notorious for waves sweeping rock fisherfolk into the sea.  In recent times, two such events resulted in the death of several fishermen and there would have been more except for the bravery of police and air rescue crews who risked their own lives to bring victims back to shore.

This rock shelf seems to fascinate many in the rock fishing community.  People specially drive from western Sydney to fish there and it is rare to see them wearing a life jacket or other floatation device, despite the known risk of being swept into the sea.

Now there is parliamentary debate about a law change to maker wearing a safety jacket compulsory for rock fishing and the sticking point seems to be deciding who will police it.  Local councils fear this will be a task for their rangers and become another burden on council finances.

Rock fishing is relatively safe on many parts of the coastline and yet the danger is obvious at places like Hill Sixty.  They need to be designated as requiring the wearing of safety vests and brought under the control of the state police force.

We already have strict laws that determine that similar safety equipment must be worn by people using boats and this compliance is checked by the water police.  Boat users are conditioned to having a police boat pull alongside with a demand to check their safety equipment and it would be reasonable to expect the highway patrol to regularly visit a known danger spot like Hill Sixty to check safety vest compliance.

It is obvious that without forced compliance we will continue to have fishing disasters occurring at dangerous places like Hill Sixty.   Just hours after each recent drownings more rock fisherfolk were trying their luck from the same positions and once again the absence of any sort of safety device was prominent.

Modern safety jackets are cheap - and comfortable.  The better quality ones inflate automatically once they are inundated with water and enable the wearer to survive until rescuers arrive.  The people who spend their leisure time rock fishing spare no expense buying state of the art rods and reels and it is not a big ask to expect them to invest a few more dollars on safety.

It is obvious that nothing will change until safety requirements are subjected to a heavy fine and the sure knowledge that law enforcement will make regular checks of compliance, and that can be shared by both fisheries inspectors and the state police force   

.It seems that what is called the " hip pocket nerve " is the only way to implement mass public safety.  When boat safety regulations came into force the statistics show there were many people fined for violations, and that has dropped sharply as compliance has taken hold.

It will be the same with rock fishing at known danger points.  Once fisherfolk become accustomed to wearing a life jacket it will become an automatic part of their equipment, but until that happens we will continue to have drownings !

The " Politics " of Citizenship !

 Citizenship issues are causing friction between Australia and New Zealand because each of these two countries has a government of different political persuasions.  The Australian conservative government has cancelled the citizenship of a woman who fled a refugee camp in Syria and illegally crossed the border into Turkey and who held joint Australian and New Zealand citizenship.

It seems that Suhayra Adam was born in New Zealand but lived in Australia since she was six years old.  When Islamic State launched a war to claim territory in Syria and Iraq Ms Adam willingly left Australia to join their cause and married a terrorist, with whom she had two children.  In doing so, she revoked her Australian citizenship.

Islamic State was openly at war with Australia, but New Zealand has a Labor government in office which disallows New Zealand citizenship to be revoked.   As a consequence, if Ms Adam is deported from Turkey she will be returned to New Zealand.

That has caused New Zealand prime minister, Jacinda Ardern to accuse Australia of dumping its citizenship problems on its trans Tasman neighbour.  It is also critical of Australia deporting New Zealand criminals who have not sought Australian citizenship back to New Zealand when they have served prison time ordered by Australian courts.

This is very much an issue rooted in political policy.  Islamic State launched a terrorist campaign against Australian interests and any Australian willingly joining them could be termed a " traitor ".  The withdrawal of Australian citizenship means that person is stateless and will find themselves in a displaced persons refugee camp until some third country decides to offer them refuge.

The New Zealand decision to retain citizenship for a person who willingly joined a terrorist campaign is a political decision which may have consequences.  If Ms Adam is forcibly returned to New Zealand she will have full access to its welfare state and may continue to support Islamic State.  She may not uphold New Zealand values and become a burden on the New Zealand state.

In Australian eyes, citizenship comes with responsibilities and people who actively aid an enemy in a time of war lose the benefits of belonging to this country.  She - and her children - are now on equal terms with the thousands of stateless people subsisting in refugee camps around the world and that status is a matter of choice.   They chose to abandon the benefits of their Australian citizenship and now it has been withdrawn.

Both Australia and New Zealand are democracies which choose their government by the vote of their people.  In this instance, that choice has taken different political persuasions and consequently  differing views on citizenship apply.

This is an issue on which Australia and New Zealand should agree to amicably - disagree !

Starving Horses !

We were once totally reliant on the horse as our means of transport and this noble animal retains affection in the minds of many people.  A news story about horses left starving in a paddock somewhere brings such anguish that relief is immediate .The law swings into place and the person responsible is promptly prosecuted.

Unfortunately, that affection is preventing the culling of a vast herd of wild horses doing immense damage to the fragile alpine structure of the Kosciuszko National Park.   These horses have legendary status is people's minds because they featured in our early history and have a place in our folklore.

The hooves of wild horses diverts water courses and churns the alpine meadow to the extent that many horses are in poor condition because of starvation. There is not enough feed for this growing herds and yet all efforts to reduce the numbers have produced outrage that stayed the executioners hand.

A plan to cull the numbers by using sharpshooters  firing from helicopters was abandoned because wounded horses suffered a lingering death.  The use of poison baits drew similar public revulsion and the programme has been reduced to trapping these animals with the intent of moving them to where they may serve as riding horses, and that is encountering more problems.

Data supplied by the National Parks and Wildlife service reveal in 2020 they trapped  just 382 wild horses, but that another 192 were released on compassionate grounds.  Heavily pregnant mares and those with foals at foot are simply released to rejoin the herd because the contractors fear the public anger if horses unable to be tamed are executed.  In this way, the most fertile rejoin the breeding numbers and the size of the wild herd rarely diminishes.

As well as damage to the meadow and water courses, these herds travel widely and their hooves carry and disperse noxious weeds to areas that have remained weed free for centuries.,  There is also a danger that this trapping programme will overload the market for riding horses which is facing a growing shortage of vacant land near cities where such horses may graze.

The horse was an introduced species to Australia and it was inevitable that some would escape and breed in the bush.  The same thing happened when Camels were imported to serve as transport over the dry inland areas and today there are herds of wild camels trampling water sources in our outback.  Fortunately, the Camel does not hold a similar affection in public minds.

Reducing the number of wild horses is gaining increasing urgency and the government will needs to formulate new plans in the short term, and once again this issue will provoke a national debate.  The high plains can not support the numbers there at present and many in this wild herd are in poor condition.   It would be an act of cruelty to allow the Kosciuszko National Park to be destroyed by starving horses destined to die from malnutrition.

The public need to face reality and agree that some sort of realistic cull is now necessary  !

The " Renewal " Question ?

 A decision on the fate of an icon from an earlier era is splitting values across Sydney.   That icon is the Roxy theatre tucked away amongst the skyscrapers of Parramatta and one of the last remaining examples of the days when " motion pictures " were the new craze that had excited patrons rushing to buy tickets.

The " movies " were becoming the " talkies " when the Roxy was built in the 1930's and no expense was spared in building a theatre that offered comfort and size to moviegoers of that era., but today it is delapidated and vacant.  It would take big money to bring it back to life and there are suggestions of either demolition or turning it into a pub.

This coronavirus pandemic which has swept the world has been particularly unkind to the movie industry and the owners of theatres which show their films.    For most of the past year an imposed lockdown has seen new releases delayed and theatres closed.  There is the expectation that when the virus is finally defeated, the crowds will return, but that is no longer certain.

Vast improvements in screen size and sound attracted people to cinemas before the electronic era brought the movies to the small screen and widened the attractions offering.   We are now accustomed to a movie selection we can view in our own home or on the phone we hold in our hand when we are on the move. The cost to watch a movie of choice has vastly retreated from the price asked for a seat in one of those outdated theatres.

There is no doubt some people will return to the theatre with the big screen and surround sound, but whether the numbers will be profitable remains in doubt.  The movie industry has adapted to this small screen phenomenon and it delivers the advantage of speed.  Getting people into seats in cinemas took time which was measure in weeks.  Today the industry enjoys the benefit of new releases playing to instant audiences across the entire world.

There is also the expectation that this pandemic may linger.  It is showing a tendency to develop new characteristics as it explores the fundamentals of new hosts  and it is possible we may require periodic updates of vaccines to keep these new versions of coronavirus under control.   Our future may envisage crowd avoidance as a way of personal isolation in which attending theatres would be deemed unhealthy.

We are on the cusp of a new generation of electronics as 5G expands and there is every expectation that the movie industry will be keeping pace with the medium.    If public money is spent restoring the Roxy to its former glory it is unlikely to fulfill the role of a movie theatre.   It may have a place as a live theatre to expand Parramatta's cultural appeal but otherwise its purpose is doubtful.

Restoration would be an expensive way to preserve an icon of a past that would seem an incongruity in a modern city !

The " HECS " Question ?

 A suggestion from the  Australian Productivity Commission  has certainly landed the cat amongst the pigeons.  This report recommends the government pursue outstanding education loan money from the estate of debtors who are deceased.  This runs counter to existing policy which simply cancels any debt outstanding from HECs - or " VET " as it is now called, when the student dies.

In many ways this is a strange anomaly.  The law insists that other unpaid debt is recovered from the estate of the deceased before probate is granted, and this includes mortgages, credit cards, utility bills and tax liabilities.  These debts need to be settled before the estate is passed on to beneficiaries named in the will, or close relatives if no will is forthcoming.

HECS was legislated in 1989 to allow students to attend university and gain qualifications that would result in a career.  The cost of this education would be repaid in installments  once the earning capacity reached a level consistent with the gain bestowed by the level of skill earned.  Statistics reveal that about eighty-five percent of such debt accrued is repaid under this arrangement.

Many millions of HEC money is outstanding because some students walk away from unfinished courses and consequently never reach the income level on which repayments are calculated.  Sometimes students are urged to seek qualifications beyond their capacity, or become disallusioned by the study and  abandon the course they have legally agreed to repay.

Others succeed in gaining the desired qualification, and then bolt overseas to a job in a foreign country where they pay tax on their earnings but avoid repaying their education debt to the Australian government, and then there are what are termed " professional students ".  These are people who go on to earn ongoing degrees but never enter the workforce.    Sometimes this is the partner of a high income earner and sometimes a person with a fear of the competitive nature of the commercial world.

The rationale for HECS was very clear.  The government sought to ensure that no students were prevented from gaining university qualification because they could not afford the fees.  Those fees would be held in abeyance until the qualification earned resulted in a salary level which allowed the debt to be gradually settled.  That repayment would be monitored by the Australian tax office.

This recommendation from the Productivity Commission has yet to draw a response from the government but it will cause anguish from the many failed students from yesteryear who abandoned courses and thirty years later have managed to own their own home before the mad ascent of house prices took them to unattainable levels.

Many who both hoped and believed that their foray into higher education which failed has long been written off will find it reappears as a debt against their estate when they die.  Even in a reduced form, it could mean that education debts that exceed $ 100,000 will become a claim on the estate when they die.

That is a question both sides of politics will need to ponder !

A Hideous Crime !

 The laws that apply to terms of imprisonment are again in the news as a notorious rapist awaits a decision on when he will be granted parole.  Australia was horrified back in 2000 when a gang of young Middle East men were arrested and charged with luring schoolgirls to secluded spots where their compatriots were eagerly waiting to satisfy their sexual appetites with gang rape.

The leader was seventeen year old Mohammed Skaf and at his trial it was disclosed how his younger brother used his charm to convince unsuspecting schoolgirls to accompany him on a walk, to where the rapists waited.   These girls were insulted and humiliated, and threatened with death if they broke their silence.

Skaf was originally sentenced to 31 years jail, but this was reduced to 22 years on appeal and he was served with a non parole term of 18 years.  He is now making his fourth bid for parole after becoming eligible  three years ago.

Normally, a prisoner is granted day release to start the process of adjusting to civilian life, but the problem with Skaf is that he  is a denier who refuses to accept that his actions were a crime.  In his twisted mind, he blames the schoolgirls for their fate and this brings a much higher risk of him reoffending if he is released,

Unfortunately, as the law stands he will get automatic release when the final days of his sentence are served and it is inevitable that this rapist will one day walks the streets of Sydney having regained his freedom.

Skaf has spent most of his prison time in protective custody to guard against attack by other prisoners. To get parole he needs to convince the Serious Offenders Review Council that he has reformed. and it is quite clear this is missing.

We - as a society - now face a new ethical question ?   Should be pass a new law to extend indeterminate time in prison for prisoners who refuse to accept that they committed a crime and who are considered most likely to reoffend if released  ?

This was a crime that horrified the public and so enraged other prisoners that Skaf 's life was in mortal danger without protective custody.  The evidence given by schoolgirls of the insults levelled against their nationality as  they were stripped and gang raped in public parks was compelling.   There was a degree of sentiment to have the rapists executed.

Open ended sentences run against the tradition of law that an offender will serve a predetermined period of incarceration which will be weighed against the severity of the crime.  When we abandoned the death sentence we replaced that with " life imprisonment " as the ultimate sentence.

Perhaps there are circumstances where that " life sentence " should now apply !

The " Casino " Issue !

 A new 12.2 billion signature building at Barangaroo carries the " Crown " casino logo, but its license to welcome the gambling public of the world is being refused.  A public enquiry has found that James Packer, a multi billionaire who heads the consortium which runs casino's in Melbourne and this new one in Sydney, is unfit to hold such a license.

The proposed opening date for the Sydney casino is fading in the rear view mirror but the hotels, cafes and shops in this towering national edifice are up and running. It seems inevitable that we will eventually see a casino as part of this structure, the only question concerns who the government will accept in the controlling role.

James Packer has already stepped aside and members of the Crown board are also falling on their swords and this clean out seems destined to spread to the entire casino industry in Australia.  Crown was the leader of this group, but  the entire industry has a sleazy reputation that involves money laundering and attracts international identities from the world of politics and crime who are spending money from questionable sources.

These " High Rollers "  attract all the services that give gambling a bad name.  Loan sharks prey on people having a losing streak and there are always women prepared to trade sex for money.  It is a form of gambling that relies on human nature, but the winning edge is always with the casino and the government tolerates this social evil because of the tax it receives.

Australia has always been known as a gambling nation.  The Melbourne cup is an international horse race known throughout the world, and this nation stops at 3 pm on the first Tuesday in November as the event is run.  Office sweeps contribute to the astronomical amount wagered on that race, often by people who otherwise rarely place a bet.

Then there are the poker machines.  These colourful, noisy gambling devices are in every club and pub and their enticing music attracts people to " have a flutter ".  They are certainly very addictive and they seem to be placed in suburbs where the average working class families are concentrated.  The government is under pressure to limit access for problem gamblers.

A new casino probably would not have been questioned if it not were for s scandal that threw the spotlight on our banking system.   The laws designed to prevent money laundering of drug money and the transfer of funds to terrorist organizations were being ignored and a banking Royal commission brought this to public notice.

It was quite evident that casino's attracted wealth from the criminal world and that losses were considered a reasonable exchange for laundering money that could otherwise not be explained.  The customers of casinos were often dictators or international criminals involved in the arms race.

Eventually, Crown will present a management team the government will accept and that new casino will get its license.  But the shadowy customers who spend big money in its high roller room will still be from very questionable sources !

Democracy Extinguished !

 The sad history of Myanmar rolls on.  Shortly after it gained independence from Britain its military staged a coup and seized control.  The" Tatmadaw " as the military are called ran the country for their own profit and the people were reduced to peasant status.

The icon the people looked to with hope was Aung  San Suu Kyi who had formed a political party called the National League for Democracy ( NLD ),.  For fifteen years she suffered house arrest. " The lady " as she was called, regularly spoke to her nation from this prison and the military began to fear her growing power.

Eventually, sanctions imposed by democratic countries caused the military to propose a deal.   Myanmar would be granted democracy with  Aung San Suu Kyi as its leader, but that deal was heavily weighed in the Tatmadaw's favour.   The parliament would have twenty-five percent of its seats reserved for the military and they would hold all the important ministeries.  In essence, Aung San Suu Kyi would reign over what was left over.

For years this lockstep with the military worked and the lot of the people improved.  Myanmar is essentially a Buddhist country and without warning the military attacked a small group of Muslims that had lived for centuries close to its border with Bangladesh.  Enthusiastic mobs of locals joined in and villages were burned, women were raped and survivors streamed over the border into squalid refugee camps.

To world horror, Aung San Suu Kyi sided with the military. Her status diminished, and a peace medal awarded her was withdrawn.  But her standing with the peasants of her country continued to grow and last November an election resulted in a landslide win that threatened the hold on power enjoyed by the military, and they responded with another coup.

Overnight, Aung San Suu Kyi and her compatriots were arrested and tanks rolled through the streets.  The military claim the election was spoilt by cheating and they would only hold power until a new election was planned in a years time.  The fate of Aung San Suu Kyi is unknown, but she is accused of what is clearly a trumped up breach of import regulations.

What happens next is unclear.   The world democracies are considering the situation, but apart from imposing sanctions, no military actions to reimpose democracy are planned.   This situation in Myanmar will suit democracies enemies.  China, Russia and Iran will continue to trade with the military leaders and sell armaments to bolster its firepower.   If the Myanmar military is feeling nervous, it may seek a nuclear option in conjunction with North Korea.

Once again, that world body we call the United Nations allowed a democratic regime to be crushed under tank treads without an armed response.  Another clear illustration of just what a dangerous world is the place in which we live.

Rejuvenating King's Cross !

 In 2014 the New South Wales government slapped draconian lockout laws on King's Cross when street violence resulted in the  death of two young men assaulted on separate  incidents of alcohol fuelled violence.  Patrons were stopped from entering premises from 1-30 am  and this tamed the drunken crowds of revellers who previously thronged the streets of Sydney's entertainment Mecca until well after daybreak.

Consequently, the entertainment that drew vast crowds to Kings Cross closed their doors and shut down. Some claim that the " night life " scene in Sydney dropped to the standard of a poor, country town and lost any comparison with world cities. The statistics  clearly showed a massive reduction in assaults and other evidence of street crime.

Now government has had a change of heart, and from March 4 those restrictions will be lifted.  Patrons will be allowed to enter pubs, clubs and nightclubs after 1-30 am and  restrictions on drinks served will be lifted.  It is clearly a " wait and see " approach..   Those laws can be reapplied if crowd control is again needed.

The entertainment that previously drew crowds to Kings Cross was " girly " shows drawing comparisons between venues.  It was a mix of sex and alcohol that drew the people in ands clearly it was out of control. It was a place where illicit drugs were easy to find and it was Sydney's notorious red light district.  The conduct of these boisterous crowds was in itself what drew in more patrons to view the excitement that prevailed.

The crime elements which ran Kings Cross entertainment have moved on to new ventures and they would need to recruit new artists to create new shows, and it will be difficult to resurrect Kings Cross to the same intensity that labled it " the river of gold " of yester year.

It is fact of life that every world city has a suburb of disreputable entertainment that draws visitors who both deplore its depravity and thoroughly enjoy its atmosphere.  Sydney, without Kings Cross became " dull " in the eyes of many world travellers.   The government has deliberately eased those restrictions to create a resumption of night life in Australia's biggest city.

How this works out, remains to be seen.  That " old " Kings Cross was the culmination of the way world events combined to create an entertainment hub.  When Sydney became and " R and R " hub for soldiers fighting a war in Vietnam the type of entertainment offering was attuned to the needs of young men with dollars to spend.   Their need was good food, copious amounts of alcohol - and shows featuring sexy women in provocative poses, and that what Kings Cross provided.

It is now a different era, and tastes will be very different.  We seemed to be on the cusp of the casino age in Sydney and there was the likelihood that entertainment might coerce around that but the government decided it would prefer the sleaze factor to remain in Kings Cross.

There are no guarantees of what will happen.   Entertainment is a fickle component of young minds and a resurrected Kings Cross may not find favour.   It may head in an entirely new direction, What form it will take is as uncertain as trying to predict future fashion !

Flowers for a Cultural Hero !

 Just over a year ago, a doctor working in a hospital in Wuhan province, China noticed a strange new disease appearing in his patients who were connected to a bush meat abattoir in that city.  This disease had SARS like qualaties he had seen before and he quickly alerted his colleagues that a new and dangerous disease had emerged.

That doctor was  Li Wenliang, and he was promptly arrested by his government and humiliated, charged with " spreading rumours " and threatened with disappearing permanently into its extensive prison system.  Cowed into silence, he was released to again work in his hospital, where he treated the growing stream of patients suffering what became known as " coronavirus ".  This 34 year old doctor caught the disease himself, and subsequently died.

For many weeks the Chinese government denied the existence of the disease and this allowed it to escape China and become a world pandemic.  The age of air travel let infected travellers spread the disease to every world continent and now - a year later - it has cost economies trillions of dollars, cost the jobs of millions of people and left behind a death toll of over two million victims.

China has consistently lied to deflect the blame.   They have claimed the disease had an American origin and was introduced into China by their enemy, and then changed that story to claim the disease originated in Europe and travelled to China in frozen vegetable exports.  They have consistently blocked all attempts to determine how this disease started and imposed restrictive tariffs on exports from Australia because our prime minister insisted on making a proper investigation an issue.

Li Wenliang was one of eight doctors disciplined for revealing this new disease.  He was married and his wife was pregnant when he died.  He was proclaimed a " hero " by a noted Chinese epidemiologist and it seems the Chinese public have not forgotten this courageous doctor.  Floral tributes are suddenly appearing on the street where he worked and plain clothed security people are trying to make them disappear.

At long last, a United Nations investigative team is touring Wuhan, long after the Chinese government has erased all evidence from that bush meat abattoir.  Entry to China was steadfastly refused for many months and members visiting this floral tribute are consistently blocked from taking photographs. The Communist government is trying to erase any memory of Li Wenliang..

The Communist party rules China with an iron fist.  Citizens are denied access to the internet and all forms of news is heavily censored.   Perhaps the grip that Xi Jinping exerts on public opinion is less than he imagines.  His heavy handed crushing of democracy demonstrations in Hong Kong have not gone unnoticed, and now those arrested are being held in mainland jails.   The more China tries to suppress the democracy movement, the more it grows.

Perhaps the " cultural revolution " is not yet over in China and as it progresses the name Li Wenliang will be named in its pantheon of heroes  !

Something is Rotten !

 It is quite clear that all is not well with the New South Wales police force.    Trained officers are resigning at almost the same rate as we are minting new police out of the police academy. Policing is a skill best learned on the job and this turnover is robbing us of the experienced officers we so badly need to bring balance to the force.

Sadly, the main cause is " psychological injuries " with 728 officers leaving last year, while a thousand new officers put on their uniforms and exited the police academy.  Psychological injuries are those caused by " internal organizational factors " as explained by the NSW police association.

This is causing the loss of an immense amount of money.  Hundreds of police officers being medically discharged pushed the annual workers compensation bill to $ 264.7 million last year.  Since 2016 this has reached a total of  $ 832.2 million.

It seems evident that this is caused by the behaviour of senior management who reply on a culture of bullying and harassment in deciding promotion and settling internal disputes. This was illustrated by the comment of a serving police officer who commented. "  Once you put your hand up, stand up for yourself about an injustice or support other officers who are being mistreated, it is committing career suicide ".

The police force is constituted along military lines.   Promotion is by way of rank upgrade with police walking the beat similar to soldiers at the war front, while the colonels and generals are far removed from the danger zone.  Many in the tiers of management have learned little from the social changes that have occurred in recent years.  They express their resentment at men and women within the force who mirror the changes that are now legal in our society.

We are losing the very people who by length of service gain the intuition and skills that deliver good policing and provide role models for those new recruits pouring out of the academy.  This resistance to change is resulting in those with the same attitude filling promotional slots and enhancing this discontent abundantly clear with the rank and file that they are not being treated fairly or allowed to advance on their merits.

Far too many people in all levels of management have held their positions for too long without their mental attitude being subjected to an impartial review.  Old prejudices linger and if these are standing in the way of fair decisions being made the force is little better than the crime fraternity its services are ranged against.

The weeding out of management with the wrong attitude must start from the top.  It is not sufficient to excuse an officer employing bullying tactics by claiming he or she is " a bit old fashioned ".  The police are our first line of defence against crime and we need to have faith that they will act in cohesian with the laws that governs their action.

That will not happen until cronyism and bullying is purged from the management structure !

A New Threat !

 A company with close ties to the Communist Party of China is proposing to obtain a ninety nine year lease on the New Guinea island of Tulagi, which is situated adjacent to Australia's Cape York peninsula. It is well within sight of the islands surrounding this most northern part of Australia where locals trade across the customs barrier in an ad hoc basis.

This Chinese company is proposing to turn the island into a holiday resort with special appeal to Chinese families. They plan to move as many as a million people from China to the island to create the work force necessary to give the holiday resort Chinese " characteristics " and hope that Tulagi will become the centre point of Chinese holiday destinations.

During the second world war, this island was  the scene of fighting between Australians and the Japanese and it has a resident New Guinea population.  It is unclear how or where these residents fit into the development plans, but this proposal has causes shock and dismay.

Tulagi is not a mere dot in the ocean.   It is a big island quite capable of housing the tourist structure that could accommodate thousands and be served with airports, golf links and the amenities that appeal to tourists, but this plan intends to reserve the resort exclusively for Chinese tourists.  They will be served by Chinese living on the island and the intent is appeal because it will extend a Chinese flavour in the sub-tropics.

This proposal needs to get the nod from the New Guinea government and no doubt aid will be promised to smooth its way through parliament, but it will pose a threat to the Australian defence establishment.  It will be remembered that their development of islets in the South China sea was quickly followed by fortification and the establishment of air fields and missile batteries.  This island could be turned into a base for the Chinese navy and any airfield can serve a military use.

Once again, China seems interested in developing Chinese only facilities in various parts of the world and that includes Australia.  There is a proposal for a similar Chinese holiday resort on the east coast of Tasmania which is facing strong local opposition.  The thought of a major resort only open to Chinese visitors who are whisked away behind a bamboo curtain is repugnant to many people.

This proposal for making over a million Chinese permanent residents on an island close to our almost empty north coast is unwelcome.  Our defence strategy is based on control of the ocean to our north and the development of a major Chinese population centre almost on our northern shore would compromise that objectively.  It would probably intensify the fortification necessary in northern Australia to meet that threat.

How the New Guinea parliament responds to this proposal will be more than of passing interest to our defence establishment  !

Thinking Big !

 The idea of a giant solar battery to save South Australia from power blackouts was ridiculed by many when it was first proposed .  The state took up the challenge, and its success has been so wonderful that this brilliant idea  is being replicated elsewhere.

We are about to get the world's biggest solar battery in New South Wale's Hunter Valley and together with the project in the Snowy Mountains, this will enable the last of those old coal fired plants to finally close down.  Hopefully, it will end the verbal war that has raged for decades to secure a reliable power source to keep the lights on in New South Wales.

This project is backed by  CEP Energy and the battery will be built at Kurri Kurri.  CEP Energy draws its power mainly from factory and warehouse rooftops around the country.   It negotiates use of this unused space to install its own solar arrays and now controls over ten million square metres of solar drawing energy from the sun.

Australia leads the world in building rooftop solar on homes but has so far ignored the potential available from commercial roof space.   Just a look down on this state from the air reveals the potential.   The vast amount of factory and warehouse roof space unused can supply the missing component of drawing our power needs from wind and solar.  We can store the energy created in daylight hours to supply our needs when the sun is not shining.

This development which is getting under way mirrors an announcement by the state government that they intend to build a hydro powered giant battery at Albury on the New South Wales and Victorian state border.    This will take power from the extended Snowy Mountains extension and distribute power to the grid at times of peak demand.

This $32 million battery will work in tandem with the one at Kurri Kurri to even out the power needs of the state and will be helpful in sorting out the time differences in the power grid that connects the various parts of Australia.  Technology is now providing the confidence to invest in an integrated system to spread supply and storage in a manner which delivers the required reliability.

Construction is expected to start this year, and completion of the Hunter Valley battery should be finished in 2023.  There is the expectation than replacing the national car fleet with electric cars and ending the generation of electricity by coal fired power stations, we will move a lot closer to our need to halt global warming.

At last, we are moving to a rational time plan !

A " Good " Police Story !

Australis got to hear of an unusual crime this week that reads like something from a spy novel.   A truck driver heading south on the Hume highway noticed something strange about the car ahead of him. One of its tail lights was missing and a human hand was poking out the hole this left and waving frantically.

This truck driver probably broke the law by using his mobile phone to call 000 but it was important to give the police vital information while he had the car in plain sight.  They needed to know the make, colour and registration number to plan an intervention that did not result in a high speed pursuit that would pose a danger to other road users.

It took twenty minutes to bring to fruition, but apparently the police introduced two unmarked police cars to the traffic stream and when they were near the suspect car, other police ahead created a temporary traffic jam that stopped the flow.   The suspect car was taken down without incident.

The police found a 24 year old woman captive locked in the boot of the car and she was suffering from multiple stab wounds in the legs and arms.  She was rushed to hospital and the police arrested the driver and her companion, both women aged 18 and 24.

All three women came from western Sydney and this was clearly a kidnapping.  Ominously, the car was heading towards the Belanglo State Forest, made infamous by Ivan Milat as his dumping ground for backpacker bodies.

No doubt we will hear more of the story when the offenders face court but the victim certainly showed ingenuity.   Locked in the darkness of the car boot she managed to free the tail light housing and create a hole which gave her a small view of the road behind the car.

Most importantly, she created an air source.   The boot of the modern car is hermetically sealed to keep out water and dust. Her breathing would quickly use up the oxygen and replace it with carbon dioxide and she would eventually die of aspxia.

The road noise of passing traffic would drown out her cries for help so she cleverly attracted attention by pushing her hand out the hole left by the tail light.    It had the desired effect and the alerted police acted responsibly by ensuring the wanted car was gridlocked in stopped traffic and unable to try a high speed escape that would have added to the danger.

Hopefully, the police will excuse that truck driver for illegally using a mobile phone while driving a vehicle.  There are always exceptions to the law, and clearly - that was one of them !

" Bush " Medicine Shortfalls !

The residents of Australia's major cities are served by an excellent hospital system, but it is evident that this deteriorates sharply the further we venture into " the bush ".   It is comforting to see signs proclaiming the presence of a " hospital " when we approach a country town, but what it offers in  many cases is little more than a " first aid " station.

Many of these country hospitals lack the presence of a doctor.  A parliamentary enquiry has just heard harrowing tales of lives being endangered by an overburdoned system plagued by chronic staff shortages.

Several submissions referred to the statistics of the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare which showed 91 avoidable deaths occurred for every 100,000 people in cities, compared with 248 avoidable deaths in country areas.

Instances brought to the notice of this enquiry include  a 92 year old man sent away from a hospital with a broken neck and a Broken Hill man who was left undiagnosed for fifteen months when he awaited an " urgent " colonoscopy.

The enquiry was told that patients in regional hospitals turn up to emergency departments to find no doctors are physically present and have treatment by videolink.   A woman illustrated this when she recounted how her son had been left with a deformity when a nurse at Cobar hospital  had to apply a plaster to his broken hand while a doctor watched the procedure on videolink.

An anaesthetist from Lismore Base hospital described  their shock at the " horrendous "  work load of two junior nurses.   It would take an Olympic effort to achieve clean, pain free, well fed  and hydrated patients. It became obvious to this enquiry that nurses were being constantly expected to perform well above the level of the training adequate for their job status.

A spokesperson from the New South Wales government  reported that an additional  8300 frontline staff were being recruited during this current government term and forty-five percent would be going to country areas,.

Perhaps one of the failings is the inability to move patients to where services can receive the level of treatment they need.   We have a escalating level of hospital services served by a fleet of road ambulances and this is further supported by helicopter air ambulances to deliver extra speed when this is required.

It seems that service by videolink in intruding into putting the patient into the hands of treating doctors in place of use of these transport services.  Patients in the country expect parity with their city cousins and it is obvious that this is not being provided in the present circumstances.

The enquiry was horrified to learn that in some instances, patients were asked to bring their own bandages.  There may be more to come as this enquiry unravels the mysteries of " bush medicine " !

The Solar Enigma !

 Nothing can be more terrifying than to discover the home you live in is on fire.  Hopefully, you have time to get out and call the fire brigade, but even if the home is saved it may be too damaged to continue to occupy and you will need to find other accommodation until the restoration is complete.

Unfortunately, roof fires in homes is on the increase.  They have jumped more than five hundred percent in the past three years and the fire brigade attribute this to faults in rooftop solar installations. There were 139 solar panel fires last year compared to just 22 in 2018, and there have been 18 in the first month of this new year.

The fire authorities attribute this to direct current ( DC ) isolate switches - designed to isolate the solar panels from the rest of the house - with the Federal Clean Energy regulator proposing to make these  mandatory devices voluntary from next year.

The fire investigation research unit  concludes that most fires are caused by water inflow from faulty installation or manufacture, and one of the reasons this is happening is because safety inspections  of the work performed  has decreased sharply. Solar roof installations  established a new record in New South Wales last year when 101,234 installations were recorded and this was twenty-six percent higher than the record set in 2011.

At the same time, only  619 random inspections were carried out in the twelve months to June 30 last year compared with 954 inspections the previous year, and the regulatory framework  is complicated by three agencies sharing responsibility for work supervision.

The  Federal Clean Energy regulator randomly inspects solar panel installations, NSW Fair Trading  monitors electricians licensing, and  Safework NSW is responsible workplace safety.  The end result is that only a miniscule number of jobs get an adequate safety check.

There is every indication that the popularity of solar with home owners will continue to grow and safety is a multi directional concern.   It poses a risk to fire fighters as what these solar panels produce constitute a work hazard.  Water and electricity are a bad mix and that is what they have to contend with in a solar panel fire.

We are getting more frequent storms because of global warming and solar is being installed on a mix of old and new roofs.  Timber weakens with age and a roof that sags puts stress on the average solar installation.  It is important that those isolation switches are in place and that householders know where they are - and how to use them.

Perhaps it is time to delegate the responsibility for correct installation back to the local council, but if so their building inspectors will need exacting tuition on the solar industry to be effective.  It is evident that unless the inspection routine is improved we can expect an increasing number of house fires.

Unrealistic Interest Rates !

The Australian government is under pressure from the 180,000 citizens who find themselves asset rich but lacking the income to put food on the table and meet normal living expenses.  They are invited to solve their problems by signing up to what is described as a " reverse mortgage " source of spending money.

People are told they can unlock the money tied up in expensive items like the home they live in by using it as collateral for what is termed an " unpayable loan "..   The reality is that this is expected to tide them over for their few remaining years and the amount owing will be deducted from their estate after death.

The financially astute are quick to point out this government scheme has an unrealistic interest rate applied to what is essentially a " secured loan ".  Interest on the money withdrawn will be at the rate of  4.5 percent, and that has been reduced from the 5.25 percent that applied to the scheme last year.

  Those are interest rates the public can only dream about.   Australia's Reserve bank has been consistently reducing interest rates to try and stimulate the economy hammered by this coronavirus and the lockdowns imposed to halt its spread.  Mortgage rates are in fierce competition between the banks but the wise know that they will eventually rise to more traditional levels.. The official interest rate is now at a record low of 0.1 percent and the ten year bond rate has fallen from about six percent in July, 2008 to one percent now.

People entering the housing market are being offered an initial mortgage as low as a little over two percent, which quickly rises a little higher if they lock in the term for a period of time.  Conventional wisdom indicates that eventually interest rates will rise to traditional levels as this pandemic finally leaves the financial scene.

Interest rates can be volatile.  A few years ago market jitters sent rates skyrocketing and they reached seventeen percent for a short period of time.  Nobody can accurately predict what rate may apply at any time in the future, but the trend must be upward.  At the moment they are perilously close to zero.

Asset rich elderly people would be very unwise to virtually " borrow money " at this unrealistic interest rate charged by the government on " reverse mortgage " loans.  The equity they hold in their homes can quickly disappear because as a race of people we are consistently living longer and reaching extreme old age.  If reverse mortgages are to become viable, the interest rate charged must be comparable with what is charged  for people buying a home.

If nothing else, this anomaly will draw attention to what is termed the " deeming " rate applied to assets owned by people drawing the aged pension.  For the purpose of valuing their assets it is " deemed " that they earn an interest rate much higher than can be obtained in the market place.  In some cases, this unrealistic valuation results in a reduced pension being paid.

This " reverse mortgage " debacle questions the governments integrity  !

Cannabis Oil Delay !

 The good news for sufferers of many maladies is that Cannabis Oil became legally available at pharmacies - from yesterday.   The bad news is that you can not expect to find any on sale, because none has been actually approved for sale, and that can be a long time into the future.

For decades, courageous doctors have been experimenting to determine the benefits Cannabis oil can bring, and because it has been classed as a harmful drug they have been risking both their reputation and their liberty.

Cannabis oil is obtained from the Marijuana plant and this fairly innocuous herbicide got swept up and made illegal in the drug frenzy of the 1960's.  It faces similar vilification to Heroin and when smoked produces a " high " that is similar to alcohol but without the lack of coordination that often results in injury.

Marijuana is now a legal product in many parts of the world, sold openly and enjoyed by the masses, but here it receives the main input of police drug investigations.  The Cannabis oil derived from Marijuana does not produce a high and is in many ways a " wonder drug " that successfully treats many maladies.

Illegal supplies reaching doctors have been used to successfully treat anxiety, insomnia, post traumatic stress disorder and pain generally.   It also shows signs of alleviating inflammatory arthritis. Several commercial producers of Cannabis oil have crops with official sanctions, but so far no end product has received the necessary license to go on legal sale.

One of the reasons that is so is opposition from that same medical profession that has discovered its many benefits.  The proposal is to allow Cannabis oil to be sold over the counter - without the need for a prescription - in quantities up to 150 ml's a day.

The medical profession is fighting, tooth and nail to hold on to its monopoly of wielding the pen to write all and every prescription to safeguard their income.  It is possible the nation may face a general election late this year and the politicians are reluctant to license a product that may antagonise doctors and also hand their political opposition a claim that they are " soft on drugs ".

We have the ridiculous situation that the illegal drug industry is supplying Cannabis oil to where it is medically needed, forcing up the price because of the risk factor, and making a healthy profit on these transactions.   The licensed growers in Australia are prevented from selling their crop and may eventually go broke if this stalemate is allowed to continue indefinitely.

It seems that yesterday, Cannabis oil was officially named a legitimate product, to be available from chemist shops without a prescription, but legal finicking will ensure it is not available.   We seem to have reached an impasse beyond reason !

Product Doors Closing !

 The news that the European Union  (EU ) has slapped a ban on the export of vaccines to combat the coronavirus until its own citizens are protected breaks all the rules of international commerce.  A listing of countries without vaccine production facilities has been excluded from the ban but it seems likely that Australia may face a delay in getting the deliveries expected next month.

Fortunately, that pandemic is more or less under control here and our own production facilities can make up the shortfall without a major delay, but by concentrating vaccine manufacturing on the world pharmaceutical industry shortages are starting to show up in the supply of other medical products sold in chemist shops - and one of those is the contraceptive pill..

Australia is still one of the few world countries that insists that supply of contraceptive pills requires a prescription from a registered doctor.  In most of the world, they are available over the counter. The contraceptive pill comes in a wide variety of brands, each with its own particular side effects and most women experiment before settling on the brand and type that they find most suitable for their use.

Some of the most popular pills are made by US pharmaceutical company, Pfizer which is also a main manufacturer of the coronavirus vaccine.   Shortages became evident here in August 2020, just when Pfizer was stepping up final trials of its vaccine and it was hoped these would settle back to a normal rhythm  by December.

In fact, supply shortages are now much worse.  About  14,000 Australian women use Pfizer's Brevinor,  Brevinor-1,  Norinin and Norinin1 pills and in October the TGA approved  two other pills with identical ingredients for release in Australia to ease the shortage.  These were Necon and Pirmella.   They are listed on the PBS, but the price is prohibitively expensive for those finding themselves without their regular medication.

It has been observed by Family Planning NSW that the cost in pharmacies ranges from $59 to $ 169 for a three month supply.  It seems evident that vaccine production is intruding on the manufacture of the routine production of the general range of pharmaceutical products to the detriment of the buying public.

There is a danger that if pharmaceutical manufacturers concentrate on vaccine production to supply a desperate world this under supply may extend to the wide range of medication that in many cases is keeping people alive.  Not only may essential medication become unavailable, but alternatives may be out of financial reach for many people.

It is therefore imperative that Australia look to our nascent Chemical manufacturing industry to fill the gap.   Making medication under license can not only supply the home market, but also become a very valuable export and job opportunity for the output of our universities.

Unfortunately, this greedy self interest now apparent in the EU may quickly spread to other sections of the manufacturing world.  We need to look to our own salvation !