Brinkmanship !

An interesting tactical battle is developing over Tuesday nights budget. Kevin Rudd is suggesting that any move to block budget measures would be unacceptable and could lead to the issue providing a trigger for a double dissolution - and a fresh Federal election.

In his " Right of reply " speech Malcolm Turnbull threw down an interesting challenge. He seemed to suggest that the only move to be blocked by the opposition would be the paring back of the private health insurance subsidy and a hike in the tax levy for those uninsured.

He offered to replace the nearly $2 billion revenue loss with a suggested 12.5% tax increase on tobacco products, resulting in a price increase of about 3 cents a cigarette.

This will be very hard for the government to reject. Obviously reducing the insurance subsidy will cause some people to drop their insurance cover and this will put more pressure on the already over stressed public hospital system.

At the same time, tobacco is one of the primary causes of ill health overloading that hospital system, hence a sharp price increase in tobacco products will help convince many smokers to quit the habit.

That would be an uncomfortable issue on which to send the people back to the polls. Many would think it was a perfectly reasonable compromise - and the opposition would claim an early election was simply a tactic to gain more time in office before the economy delivers even worse figures.

Tacticians on both sides of the political divide will be burning the midnight oil to calculate how either position would stand with voters.

Unfortunately the final stance will have a lot more to do with political dogma than what is best for the economy - and best for the people of Australia !