Jihad has evolved from the impulsive act of wild eyes assassins to carefully crafted acts of terror designed to deliver maximum casualties from the loss of a minimum number of zealots. Our reaction to the risks have developed accordingly.
Back in 9/11 when terrorists hijacked four passenger jets the captives were calm because past hijackings usually ended well. Those hijackers made the mistake of not confiscating mobile phones and when the first planes flew into the World Trade Centre their captives quickly guessed their fate - and stormed the cockpit. From a terrorist point of view that fourth plane was a failure because it failed to destroy its target.
A plane hijacking today would not deliver calm acceptance from the victims. The likelihood of a fiery end would cause passengers to fight back, and for that reason it has slipped off the terror agenda. What is alarming is that new and very clever methods of causing mass casualties is coming into play. We have yet to discover if these are formulated from the leaders in the Middle East, or are evolving from the terrorist cells residing in our cities.
The latest terror attack in France ticked all the boxes. A single French National with Tunisian heritage drove a twenty-five tonne truck at high speed two kilometres along the seafront promenade in the city of Nice. This promenade was crowded with men, women and children watching the fireworks set off to celebrate Bastille Day. The truck swerved to run down as many pedestrians as possible and the driver shot into the crowd as it delivered carnage. Police return fire riddled the truck cabin and eventually killed the driver, bringing the truck to a gory halt.
The terrorists will be well satisfied with this result. For the loss of a single jihadist France lost eighty four citizens dead and well over a hundred injured, eighteen of whom are classed as critical. Many children were amongst the dead and injured - and the French nation is in shock.
Exhaustive enquiries will follow. How did this truck evade the roadblocks designed to seal off the Promenade. This professional delivery driver was known to the police. Why was he not stopped sooner. He had guns and hand grenades. Who supplied them ?
Once again we are dealing with the aftermath of an event that was beyond imagination. It should not have been. The killing of an army soldier in Britain involved him being run down with a car before he was hacked to death. IS has urged its followers to use their cars to main and kill. What is unusual was the choice of a twenty five tonne truck because such a juggernaut was virtually unstoppable.
What the terrorists don't seem to realise is that terror delivers the " reward of diminishing returns " ! After 9/11 people did not stop flying in airplanes. They simply accept the risk with a shrug of the shoulders. During the second world war, the people of London wearily accepted the need to spend the night in a shelter to avoid the bombs. The shock value of terror quickly diminishes. People become more cautious, but they continue to live their lives as before. In fact in many people it creates an attitude of defiance and it is quite likely that we will see a rise in the number of volunteers making their way to join the forces opposing Islamic State in Syria.
Unfortunately there is the expectation that terror attacks on western targets may ratchet up in number and severity. IS is suffering reverses in Iraq and Syria and they are desperate to keep their followers loyal by proving that they are still an enduring fighting force.
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