Wednesday 10 June 2015

Turkey Decides !

When the first world war ended and the Ottoman Empire imploded, Turkey's leader - Kemal Ataturk set the country on a new course.  He banned the wearing of a hat called the Fez as demeaning and decreed that Turkey would become a secular democratic republic that would integrate with Europe.

Most Turks are Sunni Muslims and whenever it's parliament strayed off course the army was quick to intervene.  Military coups reverted to civilian rule on several occasions and one of this areas problems is the presence of fifteen million Kurds living where Turkey, Syria and Iraq's borders meet and who demand their own homeland.  This has resulted in a civil war that has roiled Turkey for decades.

In more recent times Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his Justice and Development ( AP ) party emerged and won leadership with Erdogan serving as prime minister, before moving to the ceremonial post of president.  At first he was hailed as a moderniser, but when the event known as the "Spring " came to the Middle East he showed a tendency to side with the faction known as Islamic State which was carving a bloody path through Syria and Iraq.

It alarmed many secular Turks when IS attacked Kobane on the other side of the Turkish border and Erdogan allowed freedom fighters to cross to join IS but actively prevented Kurds from crossing to reinforce the defenders of Kobane.  The leader of the Kurds - Abdullah Ocalan - is in a Turkish prison but a cease fire is in place with his forces and integration is under discussion with the main stumbling block the degree of punishment for those who committed war crimes on both sides during this civil war.

Erdogan has imposed authoritarian tendencies in recent times.   He has imposed savage bans on the media and Turkey has large numbers of imprisoned journalists whose main crime seems to have been criticism of the state.  When the AP party and his own family were accused of massive corruption he simply fired the police, prosecutors and judges who were investigating and replaced them with stooges prepared to do his bidding - and shut down the investigation.

At this months election it was evident that Erdogan hoped to win enough seats to change the constitution of the country to implement a government where the president held authoritative power. If he gained  330 seats in the new parliament he could achieve this with a referendum, but if he managed to win 367 seats he could implement such a constitutional change without the need to take it to a referendum vote.   This was indeed a critical election for Turkey.

The result was a crushing blow to the man who had hoped to gain dictatorial power.  The vote of the people removed the ability of Erdogan and his AP party to hold a majority and decreed that it would need to form a coalition with other parties to rule.   More importantly, under Turkish electoral law parties need to achieve ten percent of the overall vote to gain seats in the house - and the Kurds achieved that for the first time and will now sit in the Turkish parliament.

It is evident that the Turkish voters did not like the way Erdogan was heading - and acted accordingly. Turkey is determined to maintain it's secular constitution and negotiations are slowly proceeding to see it become a member of the European Union, with foot dragging from other members alarmed by the population numbers involved.  The Kurdish entry into parliament will auger well for ending the civil war - but it all depends on how Erdogan responds to this setback.

He is a clever politician.  Early in his career he outmanoeuvered the generals and defanged the army. It is quite possible he may now cosy up to Turkey's military and hope to use them to achieve what the ballot box is denying him.

What is undeniable is that Turkey wishes to be ruled by those it sends to sit in it's parliament - and not be ruled by Islam.   It rejects the barbarity that IS is imposing on the hapless citizens of Syria and Iraq and wants none of this beheading of people simply for following their own chosen religion - and the placement of prettier captured women as sex slaves while those less attractive are sold off in the slave markets.

Turkey has served notice on Erdogan - to chance course.   He would be wise to listen !

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