There is an old maxim that holds sway in legal circles. " Possession is nine tenths of the law ". If you have something firmly in your grasp, someone else must be prepared to expend the cost and effort to take it away from you !
Such is the situation in the South China sea. There are a number of islets and reefs that are claimed by surrounding countries, but China has made a disputed claim that the entire South China sea is historically part of it's domain and has now taken possession of various outcrops of rock and has commenced to dredge the surrounding sandy bottom to create viable islands.
Air traffic over the South China sea is being challenged by China with the claim that this is within it's security zone. So far, this has been in the form of radio warnings, but much of the reclaimed land has been used to create airstrips capable of taking the fastest military aircraft and work is well advanced in installing radar and similar warning systems. From a defence point of view, these installations are fast becoming "unsinkable aircraft carriers "!
China claims that it is creating centres that will provide navigational assistance and help with rescue in what is one of the world's prime trade routes. It imposes no restrictions on air traffic, but demands that countries using this air space make their presence known to Chinese air control and obey given safety routing's. It is quite possible that similar conditions may be imposed on sea traffic.
China is taking the "softly - softly " approach and there have been no direct hostility shown to aircraft or shipping using what the world considers international waters and air space, but the fact that China claims control is a subtle extension of it's sovereignty.
Possession of the South China sea is now a fact. The Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Taiwan and others have lodged complaints but the only country with the military force to reverse this island building is the United States - and they too are taking the "softly - softly " approach.
World history has produced many national leaders with the will and intent to conquer and rule the world and the one that came closest to achieving that ambition was probably Julius Caesar. The legions of Rome certainly spread conquest over much of what was considered the known world at that time and since many nations have risen to head a mighty empire, only to see it slip away and be replaced by others. It is said that the twentieth century was the American century - and that this twenty-first is destined to be the Chinese century, but perhaps that ambition for rule and conquest is taking a new shape.
Certainly Marx and Lenin intended their extreme form of socialism to encompass the entire world by a mixture of military conquest and revolution from within. Today, Vladimir Putin seems more intent in surrounding Russia with a network of satellite states, reminiscent of the former Soviet Union than a grab for world power. That seems to be a form of paranoia that sees surrounding enemies and requires safety in a "Fortress Russia " concept.
China has made astonishing progress since it's 1948 revolution. Both the Mao and the Deng periods saw vast directional changes and now Xi Jinping seems to be setting China on a new course. He seems to be embracing Communism with a Capitalist face. Personal enrichment is no longer forbidden, just so long as the Communist party is unchallenged in controlling the levers of power - and rewarding those that are it's Politburo.
It seems to be intent on amassing military power to at least be on equal terms with the rest of the world and has no compunction in using that power to settle small regional disputes in it's favour - but is more interested in a stable economy and economic harmony that making adventures of world conquest. If it's acquisition of islets in the South China sea led to a disastrous world war that would be a totally unintended consequence.
The ownership of those islets in the South China sea is now a lost battle. That "Nine tenths of the law " issue puts them in Chinese hands and nobody thinks they are worth a war to reclaim. Perhaps we need to look to a different threat that may make this twenty-first century a repeat of a former bloody age that convulsed the world.
The demon of religion is once again on the march. New leaders have arisen to proclaim that it is the duty of the faithful to slay all who refuse to convert - and that the rich rewards of paradise await those who become martyrs by losing their lives in this battle. The sway of the fanatics who lead allows no mercy and these religious armies will do battle in the lands of Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping as much as they will attack the countries of the western world.
Perhaps we would be wise to consider an old Arab proverb when we look around us and consider who are our friends and who are our foes. " The enemy of my enemy - is my friend " !
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