Monday 10 January 2011

Another new country !

Planet Earth is seemingly about to gain it's 193'rd self governing new country. The people of southern Sudan are voting to decide whether to break away from the regime governing them from Khartoum.

This vote will almost certainly be positive. The north/south differences are immense !

The north is Arab/Muslim. The South is African/Christian/Animist. The north has waged a murderous war against the south - and it's leader has a World Court arrest warrant in force on charges of genocide.

This country is huge - and it is not poor. It has valuable oil fields - and these are in the south. To get that oil to market, it must travel through pipelines - than transect what will be a new northern regime.

It is possible that oil may be the factor that provides the glue to cause these two opposing countries to cease fighting and cooperate with one another. Oil is the single biggest source of income in Sudan and sharing the wealth is only possible if both work together.

Whatever the outcome of the vote, it seems that United Nations forces will be required in Sudan indefinitely, to protect the new country during the initial set-up period - and to deter aggression from neighbours who are eyeing that oil wealth jealously.

A new nation in Africa will have a difficult birth. Whether it succeeds or fails will depend on whether the great powers exclude it from their rivalry - or whether it is drawn into an eastern or western orbit.

Pity the United Nations troops trying to achieve a neutral balance !

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