Boat people !

A growing threat to Kevin Rudd's dominance of Australian politics is the increasing flow of people smugglers arriving off Ashmore Reef.

Rudd has had a dream run in the eighteen months he has held office, despite the economic downturn. The impression is that he is a " can do " prime minister and so far he has barely put a foot wrong on many fronts.

The explosion on a refugee boat has caused panic in government ranks. A veil of silence has descended and it seems that there are desperate efforts to maintain that silence until a coronial enquiry is completed - and that will be many months away.

John Howard was criticised - but had the support of the majority of Australians - when he came down hard on people smugglers dumping paid passengers on Australian territory. The " Tampa " affair and " children overboard " hit the headlines, but when illegals were subjected to the " Pacific Solution " and processed offshore the public applauded - and stopped the arrivals in their tracks.

When Labor won office it had a different outlook. New arrivals are not automatically processed offshore and at least women and children are not locked up - but allowed to live in the community.

It was a clear signal to the people smugglers. Australia was again a soft touch. It took months to reestablish the supply lines and set up the regime, but before Christmas the first boats started to appear - and now the flow is set to sharply increase.

This could be the turning point for Rudd's popularity. The majority of Australians are opposed to illegals jumping the queue - and demanding to be allowed to settle on our shores. Most may be fleeing war and privation, but they are also people who are paying people smugglers thousands of dollars for their journey - and depriving legitimate migrants patiently waiting in refugee camps for their turn to be considered.

Another factor is the ethnic mix. The vast majority of the new arrivals are from the Middle East - and are Muslims. The Muslims we have in this country have not eased seamlessly into society and there is a perception that they seek to impose their religion on us and want unacceptable change in our social habits.

Some call our attitude racist - and others see it as a legitimate defence of our way of life. Whatever the verdict - there is no doubt that public opinion will harden against the Federal government if it fails to stop this invasion !

Threatening people smugglers with gaol may be good public relations, but it will not deter those making huge profits from the trade. If the government wants to keep on the front foot with the public it needs to act - and it needs no enquiry to understand precisely what brought that inflow to a halt last time.

Rudd needs to balance socialist principles with the facts of life - and make the first of the hard decisions that go with the job of prime minister !