War by Misunderstanding !

 It seems we are entering a very dangerous time of armed conflict that will threaten the strength of our defence alliances.  China got away with tearing up the " one nation, two systems " deal it signed with Britain to deliver fifty years of limited autonomy to Hong Kong and now those demonstrating for freedom are being arrested to  mainland courts and will probably disappear forever into remote gulags.

Now Xi Jinping, China's supreme ruler is threatening to make good his demand that Taiwan be brought under mainland control.  China fought a civil war, which the Communists won and their opponents fled to what was then the island of Formosa, which they renamed Taiwan.

America has a defence alliance with Taiwan, causing China to hold its hand on invasion plans and now it seems Xi Jinping is keen to test the resolve of the new man in the Oval office.  Twenty-four Communist war planes recently flew through the Taiwan strait, posing a military threat to this democratic enclave. Taiwan is heavily defended, but it could not survive an invasion by the People's Liberation Army without outside help.

Perhaps Xi Jinping thinks the conditions are now in China's favour.  America is distracted by lingering support for outgoing president, Donald Trump and is fighting to bring the coronvirus pandemic under control.  China has a trade advantage with the rest of the world which might deliver a degree of neutrality on the Taiwan issue and it hopes that America would not risk a destructive war  over its attempt to regain control of a renegade province.

Several recent war campaigns have been fought without resorting to nuclear weapons and China may hope that a Taiwan invasion would proceed on similar terms.  It is ominous that the United States responded to that incursion in the Taiwan strait by moving the aircraft carrier Theodore Roosevelt into the South China sea, which China claims as sovereign home territory despite rejection by the UN.

All this has implications for Australia. We have a defence alliance with America and we have long sheltered under the American nuclear umbrella. China is our biggest trade customer and any disruption would significantly affect our economy.  The main trade route to and from Australia passes through the South China sea.

There is always the danger that this rivalry on the high seas may accidently trigger a shooting war.  To underline their claimed sovereignty of that waterway, Chinese pilots of war planes skim dangerously close to foreign warships and aircraft, which could result in a fatal misunderstanding.

Perhaps the biggest danger is that Xi Jinping may misread American resolve and commit the PLA to an invasion of Taiwan. Any armed attack on an American aircraft carrier battle group would invite an instant response which would be impossible to limit.

This Taiwan issue is fast becoming the greatest danger to world peace.