Thursday 10 August 2017

An Asian Canal proposal !

Both the Suez and Panama canals are short cuts that save the shipping industry time and money by avoiding long journeys around continents.  They were costly to build, but the fees they earn have returned that capital expenditure many times over.

Now the Kra canal is on the drawing boards.  This is a proposal to link the Indian and Pacific oceans  with a 135 kilometre canal across Thailand, estimated to cost thirty-five billion dollars.  If it eventuates, it will probably be financed by China as part of its " Belt and Road " initiative to revive the old silk road trading empire that enriched the Middle Kingdom in biblical times.

There is another pressing reason to give this consideration.  At present the Malacca Strait is a dangerous choke point for all shipping on the Asian trade route.   This narrow waterway processes 84,000 ships a year and is fast reaching its capacity.  There is an ever present risk of collision with such congestion and the area is notorious for piracy.  The canal would replace it.

The Kra canal proposal calls for a 450 metre wide, 25 metre deep canal capable of handling the worlds biggest oil tankers, container ships and whatever size vessels that may become necessary in the future.  It will make a huge contribution to the Thai economy, but at the cost of splitting the country into two halves.  That could encourage the Muslim insurrection that is rampant in the border region adjoining Malaysia.

The economics are compelling.  It would cut the journey from Japan, China and other Asian nations with links to the Middle East, and markets in Europe, Africa and India by 1200 kilometres - or three days sailing. The prospect of shorter journeys would be very appealing to ship owners and would bring a benefit to world trade.

The loser would be Singapore.  It is estimated that the Kra canal would deprive Singapore of  thirty percent of its shipping trade and deplete the value of the city-state in the commercial world. The fact that the Kra canal would involve fees may make some shipping accept the reduced risk of the Malacca Strait's lower traffic and continue to use Singapore's harbour.  It seems inevitable that sea traffic will increase as the world population rises.

From a technical point of view construction of this canal would present few problems.  Suez and Panama were built in an earlier age using manual labour and diseases imposed a high death rate.  The machinery of today would speed this work and the existing canals have proven the design of the locks and waterways that will be necessary to move ships between world oceans.  While this will be a big job it is expected to proceed smoothly.

What remains is sorting out the politics.  If Kra becomes a reality it will change the Chess board of Asia with new realities.

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