The World Holds its Breath !

The fate of the EU rests in the hands of the people of France.  Their final choice when they elect a new president on May 7 will be between Marine Le Pen of the United Front and Emmanuel Macron who is described as an " independent centrist ".   Neither represents the old parties of left and right that have ruled France for many decades.

The EU was the dream of far sighted Frenchman Jacques DeLors who foresaw that the only way to  end interminable European wars was to bind the countries of Europe into a " United States of Europe " where all shared a common nationality.  It started as a " common market " idea to promote mutual trade between the founding countries, but it grew quickly and perhaps unwisely adopted the Euro, a  common currency that exacerbated problems between rich and poor countries.  It also quickly featured a guiding bureaucracy centred in Brussels that became dictatorial and drew the ire of many with its countless rules and regulations.

Britain has started the process of withdrawal.   It was not an original member and it was never a comfortable fit because the British have never considered themselves " European ".  Unfortunately, withdrawal is also a growing trend within the rank and file of other member countries and Marine Le Pen's National Front clearly intends to withdraw France from both the EU and NATO if she is elected as France's president.

Two countries are the basic anchors of the EU.   Without France and Germany, it could not exist.  We are already seeing a fragmentation amongst other member states who have elected leaders who no longer swear allegiance to the common unity and implement their own selfish regulations when it comes to the dispersal of the refugee streams pouring out of Africa and the Middle East.  Once again the basis of " nationalism " is rising in Europe and the stress between neighbouring countries is starting to show.

The EU can survive without Britain.  The question seems to be whether the British union can survive without the EU.  Now the fate of the consensus that healed Europe after the second world war and kept the peace in that fragmented part of the world rests on the choice for president in the Ulysses palace.  If Marine Le Pen wins withdrawal may be unstoppable.   Emmanuel Macron is the wild card.  He is a man who has held no national political office and his inner feelings are unknown.

Many would fear a Germany not contained within EU membership.   Clearly, Germany is the most successful trading nation in Europe and twice in the twentieth century it took the world to war.  Without the constraint of moderation we may even find ourselves returning to religious conflict. The world of Islam has become restless and events in Turkey may unleash a new nationalism that spills over into the former Christian states.

A breakup of the EU would clearly delight Vladimir Putin's Russia and Xi Jinping's China.   It would isolate the United States and embolden both countries to show more aggression in extending their borders ever outward.   The leaders of the countries of Europe should remember a very old maxim that has never been truer.   "  United we stand.      Divided we fall " !