Sunday 9 April 2017

A " Cynics Response " !

There is no doubt that Barak Obama's " red line " warning to Syria on the use of chemical weapons and his lack of action when they were used put a huge dent in American prestige.   It seemed that the American president had " blinked " and this caused several world leaders to question the integrity of the " nuclear umbrella " under which they sheltered.

Since then the Middle East has become more dangerous.   Islamic State has waxed - and waned - and both Russia and Iran have become bolder.  China is becoming more assertive in the South China sea and the hermit kingdom in North Korea is dangerously close to developing an ICBM that can carry a nuclear warhead on a world strike mission.

Intruding on those scenarios came the distraction of a United States presidential election.  Usually this involves the contraction of a wide field of candidates until both the Republican party and the Democrats settle on their champion and on a day in November the people decide.   For an entire year this winnowing process eliminated likely contenders until it became a contest between :" The Donald " and Hillary Clinton.

The fact that Donald Trump took the prize not only shocked America, it also astonished the world. This was a man careless with the truth and with absolutely no experience of holding any sort of elected office.  He appealed to a red neck element tired of the inertia that had gripped the country and swayed by promises that realists could not envisage happening.  When he sat in the oval office and received the nuclear codes the world held its breath - and waited to see what would happen.

President Trump suffered a spectacular defeat when his own Republican party refused to endorse the plan he put forward to replace Obamacare.  Clearly this legislation failed to meet the promise he had held out during the campaign and in fact over twenty million Americans would lose the cover that they now have under this new plan.  This rejection threatened to destroy Trump's image as the " Deal Maker " who would bring business practice to the issue of governance.

Cynics may see this sudden missile strike on the Syrian air base from which the chemical attack originated as a bold move to regain the initiative and draw attention away from the failure of the Obamacare move.   The timing was certainly fortuitous.   He was entertaining Xi Jinping, the ruler of China as his guest and it seems that he advised the Russians when the Tomahawks were in the air and on their way.   He achieved the element of surprise, and the American military were very careful to avoid that portion of the base used by the Russians.

World attention is now concentrated on the " bold President Trump " and his use of force to punish the Syrians for their use of banned chemical weapons on the civilian population.   The reaction of most world leaders is positive.  Grumbles from Russia and Iran can be safely ignored and his standing amongst Trump supporters in America has been restored.

Trump may have learned from Vladimir Putin's popularity with the Russian people following his annexation of Crimea and his push into Ukraine.   Russian " Nationalism " replaced street protests against the corruption in Russian society and a danger to Putin's rule has been averted.  Now Trump has wrapped himself in the flag and is using American military power to restore his image.

Those same cynics may wonder - what comes next ?   North Koreas seems the next contender likely to challenge the world order and it has begun to seriously annoy it mentor - China.   A lot depends if Trump needs a distraction from another policy failure.  North Korea certainly provides enough provocation to justify the sort of strike launched on Syria.

The only difference is that Syria would be suicidal to launch a retaliatory chemical warfare attack on the United States or Europe.  North Korea is equipped with nuclear weapons - and we are unsure of its capabilities.   The problems with " Nationalism " is that it tends to swiftly run out of control !

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