Saturday 12 November 2016

The Message !

Now that the shock of Donald Trump winning the presidency election in the United States is starting to wear off it is starting to become clear that his rhetoric has ushered in a big change in the way the average person considers many issues.

The status of women took a drubbing from the men's brigade that still insist that the place for a woman is in the kitchen. For a long time it has been socially unacceptable to use the term "Bimbo " or disparage women publicly.  Trump crossed all the boundaries with relish and even ventured into the sexual assault justification field.   It will be noted that he offered no apology to the women who accused him of groping them - and this may be seen as a green light by others.

Trump took a hard line with his threat to deport all those undocumented people brought into the country by people smugglers or who entered legally and simply overstayed their visa.  Many of them are now grand parents, with homes and businesses.  The only real answer is to create a path to legal citizenship and Trump has firmly closed the door for that option.

Perhaps the biggest mood change was created by Trump thumping the tub and promising to exploit American "exceptionality "!   He has created the expectation that jobs will return for those with low scale education and training - and yet the world is heading in the opposite direction.   The rise of automation is displacing workers in low wage regimes and as computers advance their learning capacity the workforce will continue to retreat.  Trump's reasoning seems simplistic.   Slap a big tariff on imports and such items become economic to make locally.   The price also increases sharply - and fuels inflation.

The big coming change is America taking a lurch to the right.   Trump in the oval office coincides with both houses under Republican control and the conservative view of that political party will be in the ascendancy.   In particular, it will be Trump's choice of an appointment to the High Court that receives ratification in the Senate and if he chooses an ultra conservative to tip the court balance that may bring a significant change in social values.  In particular, we may see the reversal of Roe versus Wade - and the withdrawal of abortion rights.

The deployment of the American military seems to be another question mark. Trump made it clear that America will no longer foot the bill for protecting countries with which is has military alliances. This raises the spectre of withdrawal from NATO and a new nuclear arms race as those sheltering under the American nuclear umbrella seek nuclear arms.   World leaders worry that an American withdrawal will encourage China's expansion in the South China sea and set Russia on a course to absorb the Baltic states and other satellites of the old Soviet Union.

For decades America has assumed the role of the worlds policeman.  Its actions have been predictable and consequently it has been involved in much military action - with subsequent loss of blood and treasure.   It seems that predictability has come to an end - and what will replace it is completely unknown.

It seems to be a case of get in, fasten your seat belt and hang on for what may turn out to be a rough ride.   The man in the American oval office is unlike any we have seen before.   This looks like being a journey along unknown roads - that are totally devoid of both distance markers and destination signs !

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