Miscalculations !

The surprise result of the Orange by-election certainly shook the New South Wales government.  A seat that had been firmly in the Nationals grasp for seventy years changed hands and was won by the Fishers and Shooters party by a margin of just fifty votes.

The pundits attribute voter ire to just two main issues.   The forced amalgamation of many councils - and the ban on greyhound racing in this state.  Surprisingly, the beneficiary of this turn against the Nationals was not the opposition Labor party.   The turnout for the Fishers and Shooters just emphasised  the growing voter disdain for the traditional political brands and the swing to splinter parties that is tending to "Balkinize " parliaments.

Certainly that decision to slap a ban on greyhound racing was sudden and without any sort of public discussion - and it was quickly reversed. No doubt it was a miscalculation of the numbers that support that sport.  To many people it smacked of sheer arrogance.

The move on amalgamating councils faces illogical opposition.   Many are hovering on the brink of bankruptcy and if they go under they will inflict financial ruin on their householders. Amalgamation brings the benefit of economy of scale.  Without that, the backlog of work awaiting finance will spin out of control.

It is evident that many voters have lost confidence in the political system in all levels of government. The old days of a nation fairly evenly split between the Liberals/Nationals on one hand and the Socialist Labor party on the other seem to be over.   The "swing vote "is widely distributed and the prospect of minor parties holding the balance of power has become a reality.

What fazes many rational voters is the ongoing inability of whoever is in government to predict when we will have a balance budget.  There are constant promises of a future date - which are quickly refuted as that draws near.  It is plain to all that a deficit budget is not sustainable indefinitely.

The task of Treasurer is not a happy one. All avenues of expenditure are deemed to be "essential " and yet in combination they make a balanced budget impossible.  Years ago the government realised that pensions were a monster growing out of control.  It enacted legislation to make employers contribute to their employees pension plan and there was hope that eventually the majority of people would retire without the need for government support.   That dream has not been realised.

Now this retirement issue is facing a new threat.  We have a housing price bubble that has seen dwellings in major cities escalate into million dollar price brackets.  The family home is excluded from the pension asset test, and yet should a householder realise on that asset at retirement they would be deemed too rich to draw the pension.

That is the "Elephant in the room " that the government chooses to ignore.  Both sides of politics know that including the family home in the assets test will trigger a backlash of voter ire that would strike them from office, and yet vast numbers of people enjoy a level of wealth far in excess of that of non property owners.

That seems to be the issue that eventually needs to be solved.   It is probably the fulcrum against which a balanced budget can become a reality !