At the moment, the greatest danger facing the western world is how the unpredictable President of Russia will react to the financial noose that is tightening around his neck Vladimir Putin has gathered the reins of power so totally that he is a dictator with the same absolute power as previously exercised by the Russian Czars - and after the revolution - by Josef Stalin.
His proxy war with Ukraine resulted in western sanctions that coincided with a glut of oil sending the price world wide to below sixty dollars a barrel. Both have been disastrous for the Russian economy and the Rouble has slid to more than half it's previous exchange rate with the American dollar. There are now shortages in Russian shops and the bank interest rate has shot up to seventeen percent, imposing hardship on both business and ordinary citizens - and there is probably worse to come.
The Russian economy is the world's eighth biggest and it's most important item of trade has been oil and gas. Lack of finance has seen a bold plan to create a new pipeline named "SouthStream "across the Black Sea to supply eastern Europe with gas abandoned. There is a danger that the economic situation may force Russia to default on it's overseas debt, in which case the interest charged on Russian bonds will skyrocket.
A wounded Russian bear would be a very dangerous animal - and part of the afflictions Russia is suffering is caused by it's own actions. President Putin is determined to restore the might and power of the previous Soviet Union and that involves restoring Russian power over it's previous array of client states - and he started making aggressive moves on Ukraine. It is likely that he also has his eyes on reclaiming the former Baltic states.
Putin gambled and won when he invaded Crimea and promptly annexed it. He has adopted a strategy of inciting rebellion amongst Russian speaking citizens of Ukraine and reinforcing them with out of uniform Russian soldiers and a supply of weapons and ammunition. This met with approval from the Russian people and Putin's approval rating rose to dizzy heights. Previous discontent faded away - and now he may again use that tactic to disguise the hardships the Russian economy must endure.
Putin has total control of the media within Russia. The newspapers and television tell the people exactly what he wants them to hear and it is possible he will blame the economic meltdown on the United States and the European Union. He may claim that the drop in oil prices was caused by America entering the oil market with tar sand oil production and CSG extraction and that western sanctions are a form of economic war to cripple Russia as a world economy.
An appeal to nationalism would probably coincide with a further adventure in Ukraine. If Putin was convinced that the west would not go to war over what a fragmented Europe might decide was simply a Ukrainian civil war, then encouraging the Russian speaking rebels to enlarge their hold on the entire country would provide cover.
Getting consensus within the gouping of the EU is like trying to herd cats. The terms of NATO ensure mutual protection in the case of an attack on any member, but Ukraine is not a member - and Putin would be careful to ensure that no national border was breached. It would be an opportunity to fine tune the Russian war machine - at a time when NATO resources are depleted and America has virtually withdrawn from Europe.
It seems that world peace is balanced on a fine edge. To a great degree, what happens next depends on what decisions are reached in the mind of just one man who holds an extraordinary grip on power in one of the world's biggest nations.
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