Hong Kong is fast becoming a flashpoint and it seems that the choice of China's relationship with it's former British colony will be entirely in the hands of the country's new leader, Xi Jinping. When Britain handed back Hong Kong to Chinese control in June of 1997 it was on the basis of "One country - two systems " and this was backed by what was called "The Basic Law " which applied to the citizens of Hong Kong - and not to those of mainland China.
So far this arrangement has worked reasonably well. Hong Kong has continued to be a rich enclave with a vibrant banking sector, export hub and vast tourist trade, which includes a steady flow of curious mainlanders exposed to liberties not available in their part of China. Hong Kong people guard the rules of the Basic Law very carefully.
In the early years the governor of Hong Kong was chosen by Bejing, but the terms of the Basic Law call for universal franchise commencing from 2017 - and that is where fracture lines are now starting. Bejing has stated that Hong Kong residents will certainly get to vote on who gets the top job in 2017, but the nominees for that post will first have to be approved by Bejing. It seems that the concept of freedom of choice will not be permitted by the Chinese Communist party.
Despite this election being three years into the future, the reaction in Hong Kong has been huge. The financial district has come to a halt as hundreds of thousands of people poured into the streets in protest and there have been wild scenes with police firing tear gas and making baton charges to try and restore order. So far, Bejing has been content to stay aloof and leave the matter in the hands of it's nominee governor, but there are no indications that the protests are subsiding.
Most Hon Kong residents see this as the litmus test of Bejing's intention to adhere to the Basic Law long term, or whether it will insist on the iron hand of the Communist party smothering any attempt for the people of Hong Kong to select their own leader - and that has far wider implications.
China regards Taipei as a renegade province and insists that it must eventually be reunited with mainland China - by force if necessary. It was hoped that the Hong Kong handover from Britain could become the method by which Taipei could be peacefully reintegrated and this relied on a seamless acceptance of Hong Kong being folded into the "One country - two systems " model to prove to Taipei that harmony was possible.
If Xi Jinping backs off and retreats from the demand that Bejing gives approval first to the candidates offered to a Hong Kong vote it will foster similar demands from many parts of the restive Chinese empire. It also runs counter to the hallowed concept that the Communist part will not permit any form of opposition.
It is fast developing into a contest of wills. The numbers on the streets of Hong Kong must be very disturbing to Xi Jinping as he watches the events on television. If the crowds start to overwhelm the police, there is a danger that he may send in the People's Liberation Army ( PLA ) to assert control - and that could easily degenerate into another "Tiananmen Square "massacre - which China has gone to great pains to totally expunge from the memory of the Chinese masses.
China has gone to great lengths to present a friendly, smiling face to the world of nations that it needs to supply resources and accept it's exports. A bloody crackdown in Hong Kong would do enormous damage - and probably block any remaining hope of negotiating a friendly end to the Taipei dispute. There is also that little matter of a cold war treaty era guarantee of American protection to Taipei.
Xi Jinping may think time is on his side and he can "talk this issue to death "by protracted negotiations because of the 2017 nature of the vote, but the crowds in Hong Kong seem determined to bring the matter to a head - here and now. It seems that there is constant underground irritation with Bejing meddling in Hong Kong affairs and wise heads know that the type of democracy promised in "Basic Law "can be subjected to "death by a thousand cuts ". But forcing the issue is not without risk.
The pot on the table in this poker game is huge - and it includes all the freedoms that Hong Kong now enjoys. If Xi Jinping softens his stance and allows Hong Kong to choose it's leader the concept will inevitably flow on to village level and help wipe out the kleptocracy and corruption that is inevitable when party leaders hold unlimited power. China badly needs the rule of law - and that is unlikely under the present regime.
If the Hong Kong situation leads to another Tiananmen Square massacre all vestiges of freedom will be swept away and in this age of social media it seems impossible that the facts could be covered up. How the vast Chinese masses would react to that situation is the unknown. The decisions facing Xi Jinping on how to treat the leadership of Hong Kong may well decided the future of the Chinese nation - and it's relationship with the rest of the world !
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