Tuesday 22 July 2014

Punishing Putin !

The bodies of the two hundred and ninety eight people who fell from the sky when Malaysian Airlines flight MH 17 was destroyed by a Surface to Air missile  ( SAM ) are being carted away by the very people who murdered them.  International investigators are being denied access to the site and it is evident that evidence is either being destroyed or taken across the border and hidden away in Russia.   The Ukrainians have recorded pictures of the weapon that destroyed MH 17 scuttling back over the border - and the man responsible for this atrocity - Vladimir Putin - is denying what is clearly evident to the world.

Putin's Russia set out to destabilize it's neighbour - Ukraine - because that country was leaning towards the west and Putin wanted to reassert the old Soviet Union realm of control.   Russian speaking Ukrainian citizens were provoked to rebel against the Kiev government and Russian troops with identification patches removed were sent over the border to support the rebellion.  A steady flow of arms and ammunition followed, and this included a Soviet era BUK M1 SAM launcher, mounted on a tank body.   It is unclear whether this was fired by a Russian crew or rebels under Putin's command - but clearly the target was thought to be a Ukrainian transport aircraft.     Both the Russians and the rebels were horrified to find that they had downed a commercial airliner - with heavy loss of life.

Putin seems determined to ride out the storm by flatly denying any form of Russian involvement.  It is proposed that he be banned from the G-20 summit in November as a punishment.  Under the present circumstances, he may well choose not to attend, hence denying him a visa would be a hollow form of deterrent.    The world needs to close ranks and make it abundantly clear that this sort of thuggery brings consequences - and the downing of MH 17 comes with a price.

The weak chink in Putin's armour - is the Russian economy.  An overwhelming portion of Russian trade revolves around the export of oil and gas - and the west foolishly allowed Russia to control the flow of gas to the countries of Europe.    That seemed perfectly reasonable after the Soviet Union imploded and the Cold War ended.   The new Russia seemed to be "playing nice " and seeking to join a democratic world.   That dream ended when Vladimir Putin emerged from the dark recesses of the old KGB and became the new Russian leader - and the Russian ambition of expanding it's borders and controlling it's neighbours began a new life.

Half a century ago it was dogma that the world was fast running out of oil.   That has dramatically changed.   We are now awash with new oil and gas discoveries and even the US is now reverting to becoming an oil exporter.   The writing is on the wall for the European countries when it comes to the Russian hand on the gas spigot - and the MH 17 atrocity is a very real reason for making the effort to guard Europe's gas supplies.

Russia supplies about half of Europe's gas and it would make sense to quickly install the facilities to handle bulk LPG from the rest of the world.   It would be well worth the cost to lift the threat of Russian gas supply sanctions - and the threat of Europe turning off the gas spigot would completely turn the tables.   The Russian economy would fall in a heap if that source of revenue ceased.

It all depends if the leaders of Europe have the courage and foresight to stand united  and make Putin pay for this act of bastardry.    It would be a far safer world if despots knew that making war on the world brought certain retribution !

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