Investigating the downed Malaysian Airlines jet and the recovery of passenger remains has been a long and frustrating process. The MH 17 wreck is in a war zone and access is in the hands of rebels trying to wrest that part of the country from Ukrainian control - with barely concealed assistance from the Russian military. While Russia is providing both men and materials to the struggle, it is uncertain just what degree of control Vladimir Putin has over the decisions of the local insurgents leadership.
It is now evident that there is a large amount of undiscovered human remains scattered across a huge site and this is being degraded by the peak European summer weather - and unless it is quickly recovered it will be lost for all time. This needs a large body of searchers to proceed on a grid pattern to carry out a disciplined search and it is not certain if the armed rebels on site will allow this to happen. The suggestion that a fresh investigation team be accompanied by a mix of armed police and armed military troops opens the prospect of unforeseeable consequences.
It is one of the cardinal rules of military strategy - to never task an under equipped army to engage in confrontation with a force with greater numbers and superior fire power. That outcome leads to certain defeat - and humiliation. It is a fact of life that Russia has endowed the rebels fighting in Ukraine with the sophisticated SAM missiles that destroyed MH 17 , and they have matched the Ukrainian army with tanks, artillery and other heavy weapons. A lightly armed protective force to guard investigators would be no match should a confrontation lead to an actual fire fight.
The fact that the eyes of the world are on this crash site and Vladimir Putin has suffered much of the blame has led to a degree of conciliation. Sanctions have hurt his economy - and should the rebels continue to block access as the time for the recovery of remains declines - world anger will increase and the pressure will mount for him to use his powers to reach a settlement.
Sending in an armed force could have the opposite effect. In such a situation, the possibility of misinterpretation and accidental conflict can have unintended consequences - and so often these spin so totally out of control that the end play is unimaginable.
If armed force is to be used to solve the MH 17 dilemma in Ukraine it would need to be sanctioned by the world body - and be of a proportion to counter the full forces of the opposition. That is out of the question in the present circumstances !
No comments:
Post a Comment