This dangerous world !

A number of factors have come together to cause leaders in world countries to rethink the risks and rewards of possible military action.   The balances of power are changing, and that promises possible rewards for the ambitious.

US Secretary of Defence, Chuck Hagel has announced a huge reduction in US force numbers and the US army will retract to a size similar to it's level prior to the second world war.  Ominously, it will no longer have the capacity to fight two wars at the same time.

This follows President Barak Obama's stern warning to Syria's President Assad that using chemical weapons would cross a " red line ".   Those chemical weapons were used - and Obama backed away, and this was noted in Bejing, Moscow and Tehran.  It signalled a more conciliatory United States that was less likely to be provoked into military action.

For the latter half of the twentieth century the United States was the world's policeman.  There was no question that it's military alliances would be honoured and many countries sheltered under the American nuclear umbrella.   Today, it is clear that Japan is uneasy and doubts that the US would come to it's aid if hostilities emerged over disputed islands in the South China sea.   As a consequence, we will probably see Japan shed it's pacifist constitution and reemerge as a military power.

A huge danger exists in Europe because of the popular uprising in Ukraine.   The timing was perfect to thwart Russian intervention.   The Sochi winter Olympics was a Russian showcase and to roll the tanks over the border would probably have many countries walk away from this lavish spectacle.   For a century Russia has dominated Ukraine - and it will not relinquish it's hold easily.   Already Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev is questioning the " legitimacy " of the new Ukrainian government.

Ukraine has a Russian speaking east and the rest of the country leans to Europe.  The parallel with Georgia sent a message when a similar revolt got under way.  With no Olympics to muddy the waters, Vladimir Putin sent in the tanks and quickly asserted control - and Georgia remains a Russian satellite.

Dynasties eventually come to an end and it seems that we are seeing the close of the American century. It is a mixture of inability to finance the huge military machine that has preserved world peace - and perhaps a lack of willpower to shed the blood and treasure that has bestowed safety to an ungrateful world.

How the struggle in Ukraine ends will probably depend more on the attitude of France and Britain than the US, but events that are happening  clearly signal that a change is taking place in the world balance.
A good reason for world leaders to do a little navel gazing !