Saturday 31 March 2007

The new Iranian hostage crisis.

It seems the Iranians must be reflecting on past glories. The seizure of British sailors and Marines searching cargo ships under a UN mandate brings back memories of the storming of the US embassy in Tehran and the long running crisis that followed.
The basis of this action depends on whether the British were in Iranian or Iraqui waters, but that is unlikely to be ever factually decided - nor will it play a big part in what follows.
The Iranians are playing a dangerous game. This is not the Americans they are tangling with - and the British have a long history of managing an empire by playing off enemies against each other.
There is an old Arab saying - " The enemy of my enemy is my friend " !
Iran should remember that it is a prominent Sh'ite country - and that the Sh'ite sector is very much the smaller of the Sh'ite/Sunni divisions of Islam. It is surrounded by Arab states who do not look upon Iranians as " Arabs " but as " Persians " - and many of those Sunni countries resent Iranian efforts to take centre stage in middle eastern affairs.
The British are very good at welding together strange alliances and Iran is vulnerable to the aspirations of other Arab states. It would suit many to see the Sh'ite's suffer a humiliation and be taken down a peg or two - and of course there is always the lure of those rich Iranian oil fields.
Iran would be wise to end this hostage crisis quickly. If it is prolonged it will play into British hands to negotiate complex alliances - and where those lead nobody knows !

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