Fickle trends in vehicle choice !

Just a decade or so ago two car models dominated the Australian motor industry.  It was the ambition of most Australian families to own either a Holden Commodore or a Ford Falcon.  Both were produced in a choice of sedan or wagon models and their size suited the average family.   Sales are still significant, but they no longer rule the roost and Holden has announced that it will cease production for several days between now and Christmas at it's assembly plant at Elizabeth in South Australia.

For some strange reason, these two cars fell out of favour with the car buying public.  Motor industry journalists have suggested many reasons , but none of these make perfect sense.   It is suggested that the higher cost of petrol caused their demise, but many of the buying public opted for hulking great Sports Utility vehicles - gas guzzlers in the true sense of that word.

Times are hard and there is no doubt that world car manufacturing is luring buyers on price.   Most marques offer a badged small car, but this is not produced in one of their assembly factories.  Two countries - South Korea and India - are the source of most of the high quality - low priced small car models making huge inroads into the world car markets.    These are quality products, and their makers have the confidence to offer a five year unlimited mileage factory warranty.

Another option finding favour with buyers - is the choice of a diesel engine.   An increasing number of models now come in both petrol or diesel mode, and the diesel engine has come a long way from the noisy, clattering, glow plug waiting - engine that belched black smoke and emitted foul smells.    Today's diesels are hard to pick from their petrol cousins - except that they deliver better fuel mileage.

Car manufacturing is still a labour intensive industry, despite the steady progress of welding robots and automation of the production line.  Both national and state governments are being held hostage to the jobs they provide.  Each model choice is the result of a bargain in which the government provides some sort of financial incentive to keep the manufacturing plant from escaping to another country - until the end of that model brings a new round of decision making.

So - what is the future looking like for the Commodore and the Falcon ?

Unfortunately, both will probably disappear within the time of another decade.   With private buyers deserting them in droves, the remaining big market segments are the fleet buyers.   The taxi fleets of Australia are almost exclusively Falcon.   Government departments are big buyers of cars and obviously the type and brand is subject to diktat.   The commercial world has favoured both of the big Australian sixes as their choice for sales representatives and executive transport.    It seems that fleet operations are the last refuge for Commodore and Falcon.

Not so long ago, having a company car provided was one of the perks of many jobs.   Since then, the increasing cost of new vehicles and the introduction of things like " the fringe benefits tax " have altered the equation.  The necessity of providing a car is being questioned, and the balance is swinging into paying the employee compensation for using his or her personal vehicle for business tasks.    This is producing a different pressure on buying decisions.   Some employees see this as a chance to move upmarket in the car they drive because the cost is now not entirely from their own pocket - and that choice is more likely to take the market into higher priced, imported luxury vehicles.

Commodore has seen sales  slip by abut 27% and Falcon faces a similar scenario.  Producing a new model is a huge expense and both manufacturers will be gazing into the crystal ball to determine if that outlay is warranted.   It is unlikely that the present situation will change for the better and the current Falcon may be the last model to roll off the production line.  Commodore may make a final model, but it seems certain that the days of these iconic vehicles are coming to an end !

Pollution !

There seems no end to the steady march of pollution.  We are seeing it advance on the local scene - on the broad scope of the world's oceans - and now it is encroaching across stellar space.

Subsidence from the " longwall " mining of coal is blamed for damage to the Waratah rivulet which empties into the source of Wollongong's drinking water - Woronora dam.   Cracks are appearing in the rock structure of the rivulet, allowing iron oxide to leach and add a reddish discolouration to the sand at the waters edge, and the main flow is now an opaque green.   The former crystal clarity is long gone !

Plastic in the world's oceans has been steadily increasing and has created what scientists have termed " the great Pacific  garbage patch ".    Current circulation that touches the shores of countries in the Pacific region have collected thousands of tonnes of plastic that is now forming a " raft " in the middle of the ocean.  It is mistaken for food by birds and many sea creatures, leading to their death.   Now we learn that the pristine waters of the Antarctic are accumulating a similar phenomenon.

Even the far reaches of space are not immune.  In the next few days it will be necessary for the International Space station to be moved to avoid a collision with parts of a defunct Russian satellite.   Kosmos 2251 has broken into several large pieces and these will damage the space station if it remains in it's present orbit position.   As more and more countries gain the ability to launch satellites, the question arises of how do we remove space junk when objects in orbit reach the end of their commercial lives ?    As things now stand -  they are simply abandoned - to circle in space forever !

In an ideal world, cleaning up the mess we make would seem to be something that each country would be required to do within the scope of the United Nations.   Unfortunately, the track record of the United Nations would make this most unlikely.    The countries of the General Assembly are famous for disagreeing on political, religious and ideological grounds - on just about every subject that has ever been raised in that chamber.

Perhaps the only segment that might be possible to save from future major pollution - is space.   It might be possible to get the countries of the earth to agree to install a propulsion unit  to return each new satellite launched - back to re-entry and fiery destruction - once it's mission was accomplished.   At least that would be an improvement on just abandoning it in situ.

Which still leaves a problem of cleaning up that great floating garbage patch in the ocean, and achieving a balance between commercial operations and the ecology.    Problems likely to be forever consigned to the " too hard basket " !

Female Circumcision !

The arrest of nine people on charges of mutilating the genitals of two young girls has dragged the subject of female circumcision into the public arena.  This is happening in the Australian cities of Sydney and Wollongong, and many suspect that it is much more widely practised than the authorities will admit.

In this instance, the people involved include a registered medical practitioner and a registered nurse, and the little girls mutilated were aged just six and seven.  These are serious charges and it is likely that if proved they will result in a gaol sentence, and probably both the doctor and nurse will be de-registered by their professional standards committees.

What most Australians find so abhorrent is the thinking behind this mutilation.   The offenders often claim that they are carrying out a religious requirement, but that is not true.   There is no call for female circumcision in the laws of any religion and this claim is made by religious splinter groups who interpret religious laws to suit their own requirements.

The thinking behind female mutilation runs in tandem with areas of society where women have no status and are restricted to tribal taboos.   Almost from the day a female child learns to walk they are closed away and their virginity is strictly guarded.   Often they become a child bride to an older man, not so much as a " wife " as an item of personal property.   They are there to serve their owner sexually, but their own emotional needs are totally ignored.

This seems to be where female circumcision originated.,   These male dominated societies wished to ensure that their female slaves did not stray sexually, and so began the practice of removing the clitoris.   Without joy from sex, all forms of reason to be attracted sexually to others - disappeared.    The facts that this " wife " received no sexual joy from her " husband " was treated with indifference.

There are laws against this form of mutilation in Australia, but it is still being carried out behind closed doors, and unfortunately - once performed - it is beyond restoration.    These mutilated women will never know the joy of sex - and in many cases the people who performed this abomination will be their own parents.

Tribal custom is probably the most difficult ingrained thinking to change in a society that is still rooted in the dark ages, but the only weapons available to a modern society seem to be " the stick and the carrot ".    It is essential that the courts crack down hard and dispense harsh penalties to discourage the custom in this country - and at the same time we need to reach out to those from another culture and try and educate them about the role of women in this nation's culture.

Progress will be slow and difficult, and in this instance proceeding through the courts - the damage has already been done !

The dangers of " Nationalism " !

The streets of Beijing have given the world scenes not usually seen in China.   Thousands of flag waving citizens have been demonstrating outside the Japanese embassy and recalling an infamous era when their country was invaded by Japan - and all this seems to have been approved by the ruling Communist government.

All forms of protest are usually rigorously controlled in China, but these are difficult times.   This is the year of a once a decade leadership change and all is not well in the ranks of the Politburo.   The heir apparent went missing from public gaze for a week  without a plausible explanation.  A police chief fled to the American embassy in fear of his life, and it seems that a foreign businessman was murdered by the wife of a high ranking Communist official.    The Communist government badly needed a diversion to take the spotlight away from the strife tearing the party apart.

That decoy came in the form of several tiny islands in the South China sea.   They are worthless from a real estate point of view, but ownership confers sea sovereignty and oil and mineral rights on the nation that flies it's flag above them - and that is hotly contested between China and Japan..

The Chinese leaders seem to have let the  " Nationalism "  cat out of the bag.   The protesting crowds are being encouraged and ships from both nations are now aiming high pressure fire hoses at one another as they circle the islands.   Once national honour becomes a part of the equation, it will be hard for either side to back down and negotiate a mutual deal.

This will all probably end peacefully - provided the Chinese leadership change does not spring any other unpleasant surprises, and provided the Chinese economy remains relatively on track.    The trouble with nationalism is that it can not be turned on and off like a tap.    Once the flag waving takes public hold it is not unusual for the war drums to start keeping pace - and if push turns to shove - bullets start flying in place of water cannons.

China is a nuclear power - and Japan is not.  In return for Japan's post war neutralist constitution, the United States signed a mutual defence pact with Japan.   Hostilities between China and Japan could draw in American forces and that would see a dangerous standoff between the world's two super powers.

The key to defanging this emerging danger lays in the hands of the Chinese Politburo.   They need to put their house in order and get on with the leadership change, and close down the nationalist rhetoric that is whipping up passions in the street.    The Americans will obviously assist in damping down Japanese sensibilities once there is a lead from the Chinese.   The last thing the Americans need is some sort of war with China.

The big danger is if Chinese nationalism gets out of hand and extends beyond the reach of the Politburo.  As the world has seen all too often over the centuries,  nationalism seems to feed on itself - and quickly reach the stage where it is impossible to put the cork back in the bottle !

Lock 'em up !

Law and order issues usually end up evolving into a political auction as each side of politics seeks to prove that they are tougher on protecting  citizens.   A proposal to release Victor Chang's killer on health grounds has revived this debate.   There is now a proposal to extend the gaol term of those who refuse to take part in the prison rehabilitation programmes.

This seems to miss the point.   When a convicted felon appears before a judge for sentencing that judge usually imposes a maximum sentence as prescribed by law for the offence committed, but the judge does not expect the prisoner to serve that time fully.   For that reason, there is usually a nominated period that must be served before any prospect of release on parole.

Once that minimum sentence has expired, additional factors will be weighed up by the parole board.  Has the prisoner shown remorse  ?    Has the prisoner been well behaved behind bars. ?   Has the prisoner attended rehabilitation programmes  ?    What are the chances of the prisoner being successfully reintegrated into society  ?

A prisoner who is defiant of authority and makes trouble in the prison fails one of those tests.  A prisoner who shows no remorse and refuses all offers of rehabilitation fails another.  That prisoner can not expect an early release when the fixed term of imprisonment has expired - and will usually remain behind bars for the full extent of the term awarded by the judge.

A reward for good conduct and cooperation is already built into the system by way of early remission.  It also delivers a bonus to society.   A prisoner released on parole is subjected to the rules and regulations imposed by the parole board - and supervised by parole officers.   In contrast, a defiant prisoner who is refused parole and eventually serves his or her full sentence, walks out the prison gate with no further control measures in place.    They are entirely free - and there is no restriction to stop them resuming a life of crime.

It is true that Victor Chang's killer has refused rehabilitation and has not expressed remorse for his actions, but he also has Parkinsons disease and is showing signs of Alzheimers disease.   If he is denied early release and deportation to Malaysia, he will have to serve the few years remaining on his sentence, but he will probably be too ill to remain within the normal prison system and will need to be housed in some sort of prison hospital - at great public expense.

The prospect of a new law second guessing the sentence handed down by the legal system and imposing additional gaol time would overturn the concept under which our laws are based.   We would be venturing into the area of holding people in prison without the offender having a day in court in respect to the additional time to be served - something we abhor in undemocratic regimes.   It could invoke the concept of "double jeopardy ".

Tinkering with the law to gain political approval can have far reaching - and very unexpected - consequences !

The " Fine " Farce !

There is no doubt that we have a problem with liquor and its affect on people's behaviour.   Whenever the city nightclubs empty out in the early hours of the morning we are treated to the spectacle of drunken men and women brawling in the street.  Over indulgence in liquor is usually the root cause of most domestic disputes - and alcohol is becoming part of the lifestyle of children at an ever younger age.

The state government is suggesting a law change to try and push the genie back into the bottle when it comes to access to liquor for those below the legal age of eighteen.

This proposal seeks to impose a fine of a thousand dollars on any person below that age who is detected sneaking into a club or pub, or who attempts to buy liquor from a bottle shop.    This would not be a fine to be levied at a magistrate's discretion.  It would be a fine - set in concrete - that would apply in all circumstances.    No " if's " , " buts " or " maybes " !

Of course, not too many teenagers have a spare thousand dollars at their disposal, so this new law extends responsibility for paying the fine onto the culprits parents.   The thinking is, if those parents are out of pocket a thousand dollars they will be more careful in supervising their child's behaviour - and they will recover this fine money from the child when he or she finally starts to earn a living.

If ever a new law sat up and begged to be challenged in the appeals court, it would have to be this one ! The same justice system has stripped away parental rights to control the behaviour of children.   They can not legally impose a curfew.   They can not stop a child leaving their home without permission and in fact government agencies will encourage young people to reject " rules ".   Those that invent a story that suggests there may be a " danger " in the family home are even given a stipend  to live free of parental authority.

This is a totally unworkable concept.   It sounds good in theory for those who don't bother to think through the consequences, but it would be impossible to impose control responsibility on parents without also restoring their right to legally exercise this authority - and that has not even been suggested !

Stopping young people getting access to liquor is a lost cause.  The only real remedy open to government is to beef up the age checking criteria at all venues that dispense  alcohol.   There have been suggestions of raising the legal age from eighteen to twenty-one, but it must be remembered that when that age was twenty-one here, we still had exactly the same problem - and the legal age in most American states is still twenty-one - and the problem exists there too.

Alcohol and young people have been  a perennial problem.   It has always been with us - and it probably always will be.    The only consolation is that with age comes wisdom.   Eventually, we all put our " wild days " behind us - and join in the criticism of the present crop of " hell raisers " !

Tipping Point !

Science has become more strident in warning that global warming will produce irreversible changes to this planet.  One of the factors causing alarm is the increasing speed with which the Arctic ice cap is melting. This polar ice reflects sunlight back into space and when it is replaced by dark water that reflection changes to absorption.   The ice has been retreating each summer for years and now it is estimated that we will see an ice free north pole - not in 2050 but by 2030 if the present rate remains unchanged.

We are told that a temperature increase of just I.5 degrees  would result in the complete destruction of the Greenland ice sheet, the biggest body of ice in the world and that would cause a catastrophic rise in the sea levels of the world's oceans.   The course of the various gulf streams would be altered and consequently changes to the jet streams in the air above would change the world's weather patterns alarmingly. It is said that we are fast approaching the " tipping point " - where the melt will become irreversible.

There is another phenomenon that  seems to have escaped discussion.   This accelerating polar melt is happening at a much faster rate in the Arctic than in the Antarctic.   It is probable that because there is more of the world's population living in the northern hemisphere, the pollution output of China, India and the United States, plus that of Europe - is circulating over the Arctic.  In contrast, the smaller output from the countries of the southern hemisphere is causing a less dramatic Antarctic melt.

Planet earth is a finely balanced spinning ball hurtling through space.   If an ice free north pole is not balanced by a corresponding loss of ice in the Antarctic, then there is the prospect of the planet going out of balance.
We know what happens if one of the tyres on our car sheds a balancing weight.   Just imagine the " wobble " that could occur if a huge weight of ice in the Antarctic was not counter balanced by a similar .mass in the Arctic ?

The past years seem to have seen an increase in volcanic activity. A number of dormant volcanoes have come to life and there have been more earthquakes.   The inner core of this planet is a molten mass of magma.    Is it possible that a growing imbalance is exerting thrust on this material and causing an increase in volcanic activity ?

Most of the discussion on global warming has been concentrated on rising sea levels and the damage that will do to our way of life.   It would be comforting if science issued clear predictions on how the melting of the ice caps will affect the balance of this planet, and if we have anything to fear from a change of natural balance .
The silence of the scientists on this issue - is deafening !