The dangers of " Nationalism " !

The streets of Beijing have given the world scenes not usually seen in China.   Thousands of flag waving citizens have been demonstrating outside the Japanese embassy and recalling an infamous era when their country was invaded by Japan - and all this seems to have been approved by the ruling Communist government.

All forms of protest are usually rigorously controlled in China, but these are difficult times.   This is the year of a once a decade leadership change and all is not well in the ranks of the Politburo.   The heir apparent went missing from public gaze for a week  without a plausible explanation.  A police chief fled to the American embassy in fear of his life, and it seems that a foreign businessman was murdered by the wife of a high ranking Communist official.    The Communist government badly needed a diversion to take the spotlight away from the strife tearing the party apart.

That decoy came in the form of several tiny islands in the South China sea.   They are worthless from a real estate point of view, but ownership confers sea sovereignty and oil and mineral rights on the nation that flies it's flag above them - and that is hotly contested between China and Japan..

The Chinese leaders seem to have let the  " Nationalism "  cat out of the bag.   The protesting crowds are being encouraged and ships from both nations are now aiming high pressure fire hoses at one another as they circle the islands.   Once national honour becomes a part of the equation, it will be hard for either side to back down and negotiate a mutual deal.

This will all probably end peacefully - provided the Chinese leadership change does not spring any other unpleasant surprises, and provided the Chinese economy remains relatively on track.    The trouble with nationalism is that it can not be turned on and off like a tap.    Once the flag waving takes public hold it is not unusual for the war drums to start keeping pace - and if push turns to shove - bullets start flying in place of water cannons.

China is a nuclear power - and Japan is not.  In return for Japan's post war neutralist constitution, the United States signed a mutual defence pact with Japan.   Hostilities between China and Japan could draw in American forces and that would see a dangerous standoff between the world's two super powers.

The key to defanging this emerging danger lays in the hands of the Chinese Politburo.   They need to put their house in order and get on with the leadership change, and close down the nationalist rhetoric that is whipping up passions in the street.    The Americans will obviously assist in damping down Japanese sensibilities once there is a lead from the Chinese.   The last thing the Americans need is some sort of war with China.

The big danger is if Chinese nationalism gets out of hand and extends beyond the reach of the Politburo.  As the world has seen all too often over the centuries,  nationalism seems to feed on itself - and quickly reach the stage where it is impossible to put the cork back in the bottle !