On The Brink !

Here we are at the start of what will be an election year in the United States and Donald Trump has taken the Middle East close to war with Iran when he blatantly ordered his military to launch a missile attack that killed one of that country's major figures.

This was not a secretive CIA operation.  Major General Qassem Soleimani had just flown in to Iraq's Baghdad airport when an American drone launched a missile .  It scored a direct hit on the car the Major General and several Iraqi military counterparts were sharing and that group of people were instantly killed.

Soleimani was the military genius directing Iran proxies in other Middle East countries who oppose the American presence in the region.  His death has been the cause of anguish in Iran and he was accorded a state funeral which attracted thousands. It is reported that these crowds got so out of hand  that panic developed and many mourners were crushed to death.

Iran has responded with a measured counter blow.  It launched about twenty medium range missiles at two air bases in neighbouring Iraq.  Several crashed short of the targets, but no resulting deaths have been reported and the damage appears to be minimal.  It is evident that Iran is well aware of the superiority of the massive American military in comparison to its own forces.

Iran has responded with what its leaders obviously regard as an adequate military response and the ball is now back in Trump's court.  Most likely Trump has achieved the outcome that he desired. This type of bold military action will have enormous appeal to the redneck American voters who propelled him into office four years ago - and he needs their continued support if he is to achieve re-election.

Trump excels at brinksmanship.  Both Russia and China are sponsors of Iran but neither would be likely to deliberately engage in a war with America to back that support and Trump knows he can extract voter support by facing down his enemies.  For a man who never served in the military, Trump is now  adopting the image as a war hawk which he hopes will propel him into another term in office.

This election year will be a danger of miscalculation.  The middle east is the fulcrum of several of the world's great religions and all are centred on the Jewish state of Israel.  Israel is undergoing a time of political uncertainty and is moving closer to annexing land won from the Palestinians in earlier wars and which was supposed to be part of a settlement that included a Palestinian state.  A war in the middle east would be catastrophic for the world economy because the major part of the world oil supply is beneath the soil of the countries likely to be involved.

Here in Australia the price of petrol peaked at the pumps when the news of that assassination entered the news cycle.  We have far less than the proposed ninety day fuel reserves held on our shores and we are vulnerable to any fresh hostilities in that part of the world.

Iran has recommenced its race for nuclear weapons and Trump has promised to stop that happening. Unfortunately, peace or war is tightly entwined in Trump's race for a second term. That danger will increase if the polls show Trump s likely to lose to a competitor.  He is a man who takes risks to win !