The Fate of Hong Kong !

There were such high hopes back in 1997 when Britain handed Hong Kong back to China.   What was in  place was a fifty year deal under the maxim of " One country - two systems " which would allow the people of Hong Kong to have their own legal system, run their own affairs and have independent relations with other countries.  Of course that deal was signed off by the man then running China and Deng Xiaoping was a reformer quickly taking China into a golden age when capitalism was mixed with communism and China was creating a new middle class of rich people.

Xi Jinping has an entirely different outlook.  His China is more aggressive and its economy is directed at building military strength to reinforce the grip of the Communist party both within and without the country.  That freedom in Hong Kong is something of a burr under his saddlecloth and he has been systematically stripping it away since he assumed power - and the people of Hong Kong have been resisting.

Suggested imposition of a law that would allow Hong Kong people to be placed before a court in mainland China and tried and convicted under its opaque justice system brought nearly half the entire population of the old colony onto the streets in protest, and it caused the Beijing appointed administration to back off in alarm.

That protest is continuing unabated and a new objective is taking hold.  That " One country - two systems " agreement with Deng Xiaoping had a time duration of fifty years and was not unlimited.   It is due to expire in 2047, in just twenty-eight years time and if Xi Jinping has the patience to wait rule from Beijing will automatically curb Hong Kong's freedoms.

This is fast building into a fight to carve Hong Kong permanently off from the mainland and give it its own independent entity, and that would be anathema to Xi Jinping.  The Chinese media is not reporting this Hong Kong unrest but it would be impossible to suppress if the PLA was sent into Hong Kong with orders similar to the massacre in Tiananmen square in 1989.   Those protesters are playing a dangerous game in the hope that they can reach some sort of compromise that will preserve their limited freedom from further encroachment by Beijing.

This is fast developing into brinksmanship of a very dangerous nature.  The millions of people who are still demonstrating in Hong Kong have certainly got world attention and they are showing no inclination to disperse and all this is coming at a time when this tariff war could bring job losses in mainland China if exports are restricted.   The Communist ruling elite are getting nervous  that dissent could spread to the masses and eventually there must be a military solution.

The protesters must realise that complete independence is impossible and settle for a reasonable compromise.  Otherwise, the  incursion of the PLA will set off a massive refugee outflow which will further inflame the anti-immigrant element in other countries and create a hostile diaspora of Han Chinese with ill will to their mother country.

Unfortunately, the people who have tasted freedom are reluctant to knuckle down to the conformity that the Communist system imposes.