New Year !

Last night a lot of us stayed up past midnight and watched the fireworks bring in a new year. If we are expecting much to change we will probably be disappointed. The scenario opening up before us does not look promising.

It looks like Donald Trump is renouncing America's world leadership in favour of internal interests and by pulling troops out of Syria he has created a vacuum which will be quickly filled by Russia, China and Iran.  A lot of countries that sheltered under the American nuclear umbrella are having second thoughts about their security.

China's growing annexation of the South China sea presents us with a flash point right on our doorstep.  It is an important international trade route and China has gained control by sheer force of arms. China's intentions are unclear, but with this trade war brewing any form of shipping control would bring great power rivalries to a head.

Early in this new year Britain will leave the EU and it looks like the departure will be without a deal. That is a step into the unknown and the sorting out will be chaotic.   Europe seems to be heading into an era of illiberal governments and the  riots on French streets show little signs of settling down. The utopia of a combined Europe where travel between frontiers needed neither passports or visas - or changing currency - is under stress because of migration problems.

Perhaps the most pressing international problem is climate change.  Some world leaders deny there is a problem, but even those who do are not making the changes necessary to avoid disaster.  If we intend to stop the planet heating beyond 1.5 degree we need to make changes that will seriously change lifestyles and world leaders fear the outcome.  It should be clear to any thinking person that we are just going to have to accept the reality of a hotter earth.

This new year is the time for both a Federal election and a state election in New South Wales.   On the Federal scene it is a matter of either " more of the same " - or give the Socialists a term at the helm.  The present government is riven by factions and has made leadership changes that unsettle the public.   The opposition seems composed of mainly trade union bosses who have gravitated to a parliamentary seat and their impact on the commercial world could be unsettling.

There is a very good chance that we could be heading into a period of unsettled government.  Both the major parties are falling out of favour and should independents gain the balance of power we could be upset by rapidly changing alliances - giving indecisive government.   Such has been the scene in several European countries with disastrous outcomes.

So we welcome 2019 with trepidation.   It seems to be a case of wish everybody a Happy New Year - and hope for the best !