What an Unholy Mess !

In the face of certain defeat, the vote on the deal the United Kingdom has negotiated with the European Union for its " Brexit " withdrawal has been postponed.  Instead, prime minister Theresa May will cross the channel and seek to persuade EU leaders to offer better terms.  That idea has been soundly rebuffed and the best cards are in EU hands.

At best, this Brexit move has been a giant leap off a high cliff on a dark night for the British economy.  David Cameron made an unwise move when he offered a referendum on the issue with the expectation of a resounding " remain " victory.   It has been all downhill from there.

The problem is that many residents of Britain are thinking back to the great days of the mighty British Empire and hope for a return to the days when the Royal Navy ruled the waves and Britain was the most prosperous country in the world.   That empire has been dispersed and Europe has become a trading block so integrated that an independent Britain would be reduced to orphan status.

One of the bastions of British wealth is its domination of the finance world.  The city of London is the apex of world finance and it seems certain that both France and Germany will seek to steal that away to their own financial centres.  Without a deal in place by the coming of March, London will remain behind a tariff barrier that will set the erosion pattern.

This whole Brexit thing originated in British " tribalism ".  Many people strongly objected to residents of poorer EU countries moving to Britain for a better lifestyle and Brexit was supposed to regain control of the country's  borders.   The other gripe was the imposition of the edicts of the European Court of Justice on the hallowed customs of law and trade.  Many people voted to gain freedom from these restraints.

Across the Channel, President Emmanuel  Macron romped to an unexpected victory in the French election a few months ago.  Today the streets of Paris are littered with burned out cars and the debris of massive riots as the " yellow shirts " reject his reforms.  His approval rating is now dismally low and the euphoria about his victory has disappeared.   Similar discord is likely in Britain if a " no deal " Brexit  leads to job losses and a lowering of living standards.  Precisely how the economy will react is impossible to determine in advance.

Pressure is building for a second referendum and it is quite likely that the fear factor would bring a reverse of that previous result, but that would also socially divide the nation and probably end with Scottish independence.  The decision to enter the EU was a time of deep divisions and the British have never thought themselves as " European ".    What we are seeing today is a strong return to that "individualism " outlook and a rejection of the " closer union " that prevails in Brussels.

The world is fascinated, watching the machinations on both sides of the Channel as this divorce moves to its fateful conclusion.  Whatever outcome prevails, it is certain that it will leave Britain deeply divided.