Wednesday 18 October 2017

The End of " Trust " !

When Donald Trump was running for office he portrayed himself as one of the worlds greatest " dealmakers ".  He suggested that the majority of America's problems could be solved by sitting down with the people blocking legislation and generally preventing progress and resolving such matters by way of a " deal ".

In office, his main intent seems to be to dismantle everything and anything that his predecessor - Barak Obama - created during his two terms in office.  Obamacare has been in his sights despite millions of Americans facing life without health cover insurance if he succeeds in dismantling this universal health scheme, but perhaps the greatest damage  to world peace has been his action to " decertify " the nuclear deal with Iran.

This is not just an American deal.  This was thrashed out by Obama in conjunction with China, Russia, Britain, the EU and with complicit input by the United Nations.  It stopped Iran's progress towards building nuclear bombs and created more than a year time gap should the accord lapse. International Atomic Energy inspectors have access to Iran's facilities to ensure that there is no cheating.

These signatories to what is really an international treaty are all adamant that Iran is meeting its obligations but Trump disagrees without presenting any evidence and shunts the deal back to Congress to allow fresh sanctions to be imposed.  He wants to add new measures to stop Iran updating its missile programme and create limits on help that country provides to regimes the United States regards as terrorists.

It is America which is backing away from its " deal "  obligations and the repercussion may be disastrous.  We have a very dangerous confrontation with North Korea hanging in the balance and this deal backsliding will probably absolutely kill any chance of that being settled by some sort of accord.   That does seem remote, but it also seems the only chance to avoid an exchange of missiles by mistake or misinterpretation.

An even bigger damage component is being done to the trust held by nations sheltering under the American nuclear umbrella.   For decades, many countries have held their hand in developing their own nuclear weapons because America has offered them its protection should they be attacked. That was a promise renewed by every American president elected to office, until President Donald Trump started to add conditions and voice reservations.

If Trump can walk away from the Iran nuclear deal, many will question their safety under the American nuclear umbrella.   Would America go to war if they were attacked ?   That was never a doubt in the past, but this is a new America - with a very different type of man residing in the oval office.

In particular, both Japan and South Korea will now have their doubts and the countries with Russia as a neighbour will be nervous.  The fact that both India and Pakistan successfully joined the nuclear club and the world accepted their right to nuclear arsenals will be encouraging.  We may be on the cusp of a nuclear arms race.

It is quite possible that Donald Trump will go down in history for all the wrong reasons.  Deals are important, but only if there is trust that they will be fully honoured.  That is a question that our own defence people will need to ponder.

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