A " Free Migration Block " ?

It looks like Commonwealth countries may be dragged into the United Kingdom referendum battle over EU membership.  Boris Johnson, London's Mayor has raised the issue of negotiating a migration free block of countries that would encompass the United Kingdom,  Canada, Australia and New Zealand.   It would remove the need for visas and allow residents to freely travel and work wherever they choose.  Obviously, as one of the leaders of the Brexit movement to leave the EU Boris Johnson is suggesting this as an alternative to the " ever closer " ambitions of continental EU leaders.

This will be one of the aspects British voters consider when they weigh up their voting choice in the June referendum.  On the continent, the Schengen zone allows citizens of most EU countries to cross national borders without the need for visas or passports, but it is being threatened by the mass of refugees from Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan flooding into Europe.  Britain is not a part of the Schengen zone because it fears an avalanche of people from Europe taking up residence to gain access to the United Kingdom's welfare state benefits.

This free migration block suggestion comes at a specially critical time because the UK is about to tighten the number of work visas it issues annually and those with existing work visas will most likely be refused renewal.   A similar scheme has been in place between Australia and New Zealand for many years and the interchange of citizens is such that we often encounter each countries currency in the flow of coinage we get as change.

Opinion polls show an approval rating of 75% from Canadians, 70% from Australians, 82% from New Zealanders - and a surprisingly low 58% from those in the United Kingdom.  Obviously, this free immigration block idea and the Schengen arrangement can not both be applied at the same time, hence it tends to illustrate which way referendum thinking is heading.

If the referendum vote is for Brexit the United Kingdom will have to negotiate a new place in world affairs.  Before Britain joined the EU the old Commonwealth was an important trading partner, but under EU rules high tariffs were slapped on all goods that competed with whatever was being grown or manufactured within the EU group.  Commonwealth countries have since developed new markets elsewhere.

Many economists have misgivings about the long term prospects of the EU.   It was initially the union of a small  number of financially strong states but it enlarged too quickly and included countries of wide financial and size disparity.  The introduction of the Euro was a potential disaster without a form of budget control and we are seeing some members amassing a debt load that will be impossible to repay.  A British withdrawal could be the cause of the EU shedding other members and down sizing to a smaller core of more financially stable states.

The indications are that this referendum will be close, but the odds seem to be in favour of Britain retaining EU membership.  If that is the result it is hard to see how this Migration Block idea can co-exist with the rules that apply to EU members.   If the Brits choose Brexit then the UK will be desperate to reestablish trading links with the old British "Empire " and this scheme would be seen as a "door opener ".

Those with plans to either work or study in London will be watching this referendum closely !