The referendum to decide the fate of Scotland has delivered a verdict. Ominously, First Minister Alex Salmond in his concession speech qualified that rejection with the comment "for now "! The Scots narrowly rejected breaking away from union with Britain 55/45, eerily consistent with the Australian referendum of 1999 which rejected becoming a Republic.
Now that the rosy glow of becoming a new country has faded, it would be a good time to have a long, hard look at some of the issues that were left hanging in the air before the vote. One of these was retaining the British pound as the currency of Scotland.
One has only to look to the Euro zone to see the diabolical mess that can ensure when vastly different sized economies are tied to a common currency unit. Germany dominates the Euro zone and weak economies such as Greece have been forced into draconian austerity which has generated discontent - and serious unemployment. Devaluing is not an option to boost tourism and help increase exports and smaller economies are caught in a vicious cycle in such circumstances. A currency union between Britain and Scotland would pose similar risks.
No doubt border procedures between the two countries would be relaxed and cordial, but the right of passage would not be entirely free. There is a similar procedure here between Australia and New Zealand, but both countries regularly turn back visitors with unsavoury criminal records. Both countries impose their own regulations on what passes duty free - and what items are a prohibited import. It would be inevitable that regulation differences would occur.
Perhaps the biggest change of status would be evident when world affairs are discussed. The United States is the world's mightiest military power and when the top table convenes the US, the United Kingdom and France sit on one side, and Russia and China sit on the other. They are the nuclear nations that hold the power of "Veto " - and it is their decisions that hold sway on world events. As a small, independent country, Scotland would have similar status to New Zealand or Luxembourg.
Which brings up the subject of defence. The increasing complexity of weapons systems is adding to the cost and a country with a population of five million would struggle to field a competitive air force and navy. In combination with the United Kingdom that can be achieved. Going it alone risks a lesser standard, which can be fatal in even a limited conflict.
Independence would certainly cause a thinking adjustment, taking the new nation from part of one of the great powers with influence on world affairs to a virtual backwater that would need to negotiate re-entry into most of the assemblies presently automatic because of it's UK association. In some cases, entry may be denied.
There is every chance that an independent Scotland would be successful, happy little country with a favourable balance of trade and a vibrant economy. To a great extent, this depends on the forecasts for North Sea oil to be realistic. There is no reason why Scotland should not be as successful as New Zealand, which with a population of 4.7 million is of similar size. New Zealand is a completely independent Commonwealth country with a stable economy - and a relaxed mode of living. It is also an "undefended country." It's air force consists of freighters and it has no combat aircraft. When it's naval Frigates reach the end of their life they will not be replaced, and the army has been reduced to a capability of serving on United Nations peacekeeping duties only. This does not sit well with many New Zealanders, but it is a necessity for an economy of that size.
Perhaps Scotland has the benefit of both worlds with that "no "vote. It remains within the United Kingdom umbrella but has been promised devolution greater than the statehoods that exist in Australia, and in accepting that it needs to be very careful to use wisdom in making changes. It would be so easy to tinker with things and end up with incompatibility with the rest of Britain. When the heart rules the head - as so often happens when nationalism becomes an issue - the wisest course is often not the one chosen.
Scotland has achieved the next best thing to total independence !
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