A clear and present danger !

The fact that the United States, Britain and Germany have closed many of their overseas embassies until the passing of Ramadan is a very good reason for travellers of all nationalities to be nervous.

The security people report a sharp increase in terrorist " chatter " - and this is precisely the forerunner of the 9/11 attack on the World Trade centre.  It seems a likely indication that al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula is planning a show of strength and this may be directed against a wide spectrum of western targets.

It is likely that counter measures have reduced al Qaeda to abandon huge projects like the 9/11 attack, and concentrate more on a multitude of smaller events.  Western security will be concentrating on airlines, trains and events at which large numbers of the public gather.

The more worrying aspect concerns the terrorist potential of just one man - Abrahim Al-Asiri, a Saudi bombmaker who masterminded two events that only narrowly failed to bring down passenger and freight aircraft.   He is a gifted chemist who devised the " underwear " bomb and the " inkjet cartridge " bombs that delivered a new threat to air travel.

It is thought that he has developed this craft further and that future bombs may be surgically implanted into the body of potential suicide bombers.  It is possible that Al-Asiri has been training cadres of bombmakers and the security people think it possible that al Qaeda may be about to implement coordinated bomb attacks on a wide scale.

Security is playing it's cards close to it's chest, but the embassy closures indicate that they may have been the chosen targets.  If so, the opportunities have been seriously reduced and now it depends if al Qaeda can quickly change direction and whether they have a " Plan B " waiting in case of target disruption.

This is certainly a time when those taking an overseas holiday, travelling for business - or using all forms of air or rail transport - would have in mind that there is a " risk factor ".   It would also be a good time to avoid the usual tourist haunts that attract large numbers of people.

The next week to ten days will see most of the western world " holding their breath ".    Hopefully, it will have a happy outcome !