A looming disaster !

It has been a long time since a major Pandemic swept through the world and decimated millions of people.   Back in the Middle Ages the " Black Death " plague cut a swathe throughout Europe and just after the end of the first world war a Pneumonia epidemic sent healthy young people to an early grave.  The law of probabilities indicates that sooner or later we will again get a visit from such a pestilence.

Science has long been worried about the mutations of various diseases that have been vaguely determined under the heading " Bird Flu ".   Mysterious strains of deadly viruses circulate around and between this world's bird species and in particular - seem prevalent in poultry, and that is where the transmission from bird to humans seems most likely.

Poultry forms a big part of the human diet in many parts of the world, and in particular - in teeming Asia poultry and it's owners tend to live in close proximity to one another.   There have been several scares, but fortunately this disease has not managed to make the leap to human to human transfer - and rapid action by the health authorities has kept it under control.

Now we have a new strain making an appearance.   H7N9 is a variation that has infected 14 people in China - and killed five of them.   Already mass killing of poultry is under way.  It has become a battle between the disease and science to gain understanding about just what is involved - and what action can be taken to prevent it moving to the Pandemic stage.

One day we may not be so lucky !   In past centuries isolation was a mitigating factor.   Cities simply closed their gates and refused to admit travellers.   Travel between centres was by horse transport and between countries involved a sea journey.   Today's airline industry moves people around the globe in a matter of hours.    Quarantine is not an option.

This risk is exacerbated by stockpiles of biological weapons fuelling the arms race.  Disease can be a weapon of war and probably as much research has been aimed at spreading disease as stopping a natural spread.    The risk of a laboratory " accident " is always present.

The only saving grace seems to be the protection that Mother Nature has built into the human genome.  In any group of people there always seems to be a number who are immune to whatever disease is ravaging society.   So it was with the " Black Death " and the " Flu Pandemic " of 1918.    Many people died in both events, but the human race survived.

That is a comforting thought as science battles with new diseases that threaten to unleash another Pandemic on the world !