It seems that the naming of an election date in Australia is likely to send a surge of refugee boats to try and beat that deadline - and that will increase peril on the sea because it will deliver them into the cyclone season.
One of the things that seems to continually thwart Australia's efforts to stem the refugee flow is our inability to get our message across in Indonesia. The fact that boat people now are processed offshore is either not getting through, or being discounted by the people smugglers as a " scare tactic " rather than a fact.
The people smugglers will use the September 14 call to their advantage. It is a message they will be happy to spread - and with it the threat that a change of government will bring a crack down on those seeking safety in Australia. Refugees will be urged to " get on a boat now " - before the opportunity ends.
Many of the intending refugees claim that there is no other option than to continue. They have " burned their bridges " and to return is to face certain death. In many cases, they have borrowed money to pay their fare and to fail will leave their families saddled with an impossible debt to repay. It is a matter of honour to succeed - or die !
Our recent past history is not working in our favour. Thousands of refugees have safely made the crossing and after time behind razor wire at Villawood or other centres - have got that important piece of paper and been released into the Australian community. The fact that they are not now living under the religious oppression of their home country, or being stood over by armed gangs is the message that is bringing an endless flow to escape persecution - and find the " good life Australia offers ".
We are a country that believes in the " rule of law " and in comparison to the regimes many have left - Australia is a utopia. That is the message the earlier migrants are sending back home - and that is the reason that all our efforts to warn of changed circumstances for new arrivals is falling on deaf ears.
We face an impossible dilemma. War and religious oppression will stalk many countries of the world and create a need for citizens to flee. People smugglers make a fortune organizing " tours " by way of leaky boats and the countries through which refugees travel will help them on their journey - to be rid of them.
Neither side of politics has an answer to this problem - because there simply is no way to stop the flow heading here when we have the reputation of a safe place to live. The magnet - is the reality of the Australian lifestyle that we have created on this continent.
Unfortunately, a lot of people are going to die because a natural event in our political cycle is going to be the impetus that sends people to sea in unsuitable boats in the middle of the cyclone season.
It seems we are powerless to change history !
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