A United Kingdom breakup ?

The stage has been set for the people of Scotland to decide whether they wish to remain part of the three hundred year old United Kingdom.  In 2014 a referendum will offer a simple " Yes/No " vote to decide the issue.

At this stage, the opinion polls suggest the idea will be heavily rejected.   Only 34% of Scots seem to be in favour and the Brits are even less enthusiastic - at 29%.    Both sides of the argument will deliver impassioned pleas in the interim dialogue period before the vote, but it will be hard to make a compelling case based on statistics.

There is a vast population imbalance.  The 51 million people in England make up 84% of the UK population, the Welsh with 3 million represent 5% - and Scotland's 5 million come in at just 8.5%.   Thinking folk who do their sums on the back of an envelope will wonder how to fit the tax regime of a brand new country into the tax base five million people deliver.

It sounds good to think of breaking free from Westminster and living under the administration of a Scottish parliament, but then that creates the need for a new head of state.   Unless Scotland opts for a king, that will inevitably mean a republican system - and with it - a president.    Many Scots will still have a warm spot in their hearts for the present queen.

Five million people will have to shell out for things like their own embassies in other countries, a place in the deliberations of the  United Nations - and then comes the most horrific cost burden of them all - defence !
It would be unthinkable to imagine Scotland as an undefended country.  We live in a dangerous world and an independent Scotland would need to think long and hard about just what sort of army, navy and air force it could afford.

Those totalling costs on the back of an envelope will be getting dizzy spells when they start to add in all those welfare and infrastructure costs that the residents of independent countries have to face - and that includes financing the old age pension system and the medical services that citizens demand.

It will be interesting to see what odds bookmakers give on this referendum succeeding.  Dumping an arrangement that has served the British Isles well for three hundred turbulent years is not something to be done lightly., specially in a  world that is rapidly falling apart financially.

The Scots are a canny people.   That old thinking about a devil you know - in preference to the unknown - will have a big influence on how they mark that ballot paper !