Saturday 28 July 2012

Worse than nuclear !

The greatest fear threatening western nations has been the prospect of terrorists getting their hands on a nuclear weapon or sufficient radioactive matter to fuel a " dirty bomb ".   The situation in Syria has added a new element.  Syria has no nuclear weapons, but it does have a fully advanced arsenal of chemical weapons of mass destruction - and now there is the question of in whose hands they will fall if the Assad regime is defeated.

The fighting in Syria combines the two worst elements of conflict.  Not only is this a civil war, but it is also a religious war.  The two main branches of Islam are in a proxy fight with help from Saudi Arabia and Iran to control a country that is a pivot point in one of the world's most dangerous regions.  Tribal loyalties are involved in both sides and it is certain that at least some elements have sympathies with the extremists of al Qaeda and similar terrorist organizations.

The Assad regime is experiencing defections and there is a very real chance that the keepers of his chemical arsenal may go over to the other side - and take these weapons into a new dimension.  In the hands of terrorists, a small amount of Anthrax scattered in the wind from a high building would be sufficient to bring death to thousands in a world city.    It would be a situation that the late Osama bin Laden would have relished.

Assad's chemical stockpile is considered to be one of the most extensive in the world and it probably contains a spectrum that includes blistering agents, nerve gas and lethal toxins that can spread person to person.  It is almost certain that if it  fell into the wrong hands, the first victims would be the citizens of Israel.

It must be tempting for the great powers to consider a strike to seize these weapons and bring them under United Nations control, but unfortunately neither China or Russia seems willing to abandon Assad and yet there are clear indications that his days are numbered.    There is also a chance that a desperate Assad may unleash these weapons against his own people in a last roll of the dice to win an unwinnable war.

The failure of the United Nations to reach consensus and act on Syria may bring on an era more terrible than the threat of nuclear destruction during the " Cold War " years.    A nuclear war did not eventuate because nuclear weapons were exclusively restricted to the main players with too much to lose in a nuclear exchange. Those days are over and the " nuclear club " has expanded to include several players lacking that stability.

We may be about to enter an era more terrifying than the threat of nuclear annihilation. If Assad's chemical weapons of mass destruction fall into the hands of terrorist groups they will have the perfect weapons to blackmail the west  and make demands.   People who seek martyrdom by deliberately ending their own lives  by triggering an explosive belt to cause the death of others would have no hesitation carrying out those threats.

It seems that the rest of the world is destined to be spectators as events in Syria unroll.   Future history books may record that it was our inability to reach consensus and act that unleashed a reign of terror that sharply reduced this world's population !    Perhaps the first horseman of the Apocalypse - " Pestilence " - is destined to be inflicted on this world !


No comments:

Post a Comment