Yesterday's two by-elections did not follow the course predicted by the pundits. There was not a sharp swing against the Liberal party, despite the leadership change and the controversy over the ETS.
Both were relatively safe Liberal seats. Sydney's Bradfield had been held by former leader Brendan Nelson with a 13% margin, and Melbourne's Higgins by former treasurer Peter Costello by a more modest 7%.
Labor did not field candidates and so the opposing option was left to the Greens. These by-elections should have seen them in their element as climate change is their prime concern and reason to be in politics. They increased their vote, but only by a modest margin and nowhere near the swing predicted.
Then there was the reaction of women to Tony Abbot's Catholic beliefs. He has stated opposition to " no fault " divorce and there are indications that he is less than supportive of extending women's rights. Once again, the predicted backlash simply did not happen.
The conclusion seems to be that voters are keeping their powder dry and adopting a " wait and see " attitude. They are not rushing to make a judgement and will let events unfold.
The biggest surprise is on the question of the ETS. Many people have doubts now and are prepared to consider both sides of the argument. Science and emotion are in conflict and the voters need to sort that out before we implement change that could be disastrous to the Australian economy.
One thing is fast becoming certain. The decision on global warming - and it's cause and possible solution - will require more than just hysterical claims before people finally make up their minds.
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