Saturday 29 November 2008

Opportunity lost !

In the middle of this year the price of petrol reached a dollar sixty a litre - and the pundits predicted that we would see two dollars a litre by Christmas !

It didn't happen ! Along came the sub-prime mortgage fiasco - quickly followed by a world wide recession - and with the drop in demand petrol is approaching the one dollar a litre level - and may even dip under that by Christmas.

Dramatic events took place as a result of that price surge. Kevin Rudd bestowed millions of Australian taxpayer's dollars on Toyota to begin manufacturing hybrid cars in this country.

Electric propulsion gained a new lease of life. We are within months of seeing several serious entries into the electric market burst into showrooms, and the prestige European marques have successfully tamed diesel engines to provide amazing economy without the rattle and fumes normally associated with diesel.

The only drawback seems to be the price the oil companies are gouging for that fuel. Petrol may have dropped in price, but diesel - which takes less refining than petrol - remains artificially high and is compounding the inflation rate because of it's impact on the movement of goods.

There was also speculation about increasing the ethanol content of vehicle fuel. The oil companies have been dragged kicking and screaming into providing a ten percent ethanol mix under the " E 10 " banner, but they have demonstrated that they are beyond the reach of government control when it comes to the major decisions on price and availability.

The government may bluster and threaten a control regime with drastic penalties - but the oil companies hold all the cards. When it comes to that commodity - they are the only game in town !

So - We are back to square one. But a great opportunity has been lost.

When petrol prices hiked many people did exactly what the government had been urging for years. They left their cars at home - and took public transport.

What a miserable experience that proved to be !

Slow trains - packed in like sardines - with depleted timetables, incapable of handling the commuter crowds and delivering people late for work.

Buses that left commuters standing at bus stops because they were already full and could take no more passengers. Crowded - inconvenient - uncomfortable - and with no immediate prospect of improvement.

So despite high petrol prices motorists went back to their cars, and now the price of petrol has dropped they are going to stay with convenience and creature comfort.

The fiasco of public transport means that when petrol prices rise again - and they inevitably will - the memory will keep drivers in their cars.

The old adage - " Once bitten - twice shy " will prevail.

They tried public transport - and found it wanting - and the experience will convince many that the car is the only answer to personal transport - irrespective of what sacrifices have to be made in the family budget to make it possible.

The government lost a golden chance to change public culture - and perhaps it's biggest chance to save the planet by reducing exhaust emissions !

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