World War 111 ?

All through the cold war we lived with the threat of a nuclear exchange between super powers America and Russia.  When the Soviet Union imploded that threat lifted but now the threat level is again rising with a standoff developing between China and the United States.

China looks to be heading towards a dictatorship.  Very quietly, term limits are being dropped and it looks like Xi Jinping will stay long after his term limit expires in 2023.  This news was suppressed to the Chinese people.  It was relegated to an inner pager story in the Chinese press and the rigid censorship expunged any comments from social media.

The flash point will come - sooner or later - over the South Chia sea.   China's claim to sovereignty because it has developed artificial islands has been rejected by the world court.  China will now enforce its possession by military means and it is fast heading towards parity with the United States military.

So far, China has imposed no restrictions on shipping passing through the South China sea or Aircraft traveling above it, but it sends warnings to US naval ships that they are " trespassing ".  This area of water is a world shipping route and any sort of Chinese embargo would be commercially crippling.

China's intentions are unclear.  Those islands have been developed into military fortresses with safe harbours for shipping and air strips to serve as unsinkable aircraft carriers.  They project force far beyond the Chinese mainland, but whether this is intended as defence or offense is an unanswered question.

So far, the mutual destruction likely in a nuclear exchange has prevented open warfare between the super powers and delivered war by proxy.   The hope of humankind is that the restraint of the second world war may stay the nuclear option the same way that poisonous gas use did not extend to that conflict.  Had gas been part of the bombing campaign, the wars death toll would have been close to total annihilation.

We now know that a nuclear exchange came down to the decision of an individual commander in a soviet submarine during the Cuban missile crisis.  He was not a king or a president, but simply a naval officer in charge of a nuclear torpedo.  The decision he made saved millions of lives.

The gamesmanship being deployed in the South China sea can very easily see a similar scenario develop where a forward position is out of contact with their superiors and facing just such a decision.   It is doubtful that the leader of any sane nation would deliberately launch a nuclear strike in the knowledge that there would be a similar reply response, but the need for a swift response to a perceived attack delivers opportunities for an accident.

The most likely start to a third world war could be misinterpretation of unfolding events in the South China sea.

Return to the " Razor Gang " Days !

The city of Sydney had a colourful past in the days of sly grog shops and brothels back in the 1920's. Those were the days of " the Push " when violent characters earned their living by robbing people at night on the mean streets of the inner west.

We had our time of gang warfare and they were known as " Razor gangs " because their weapon of choice was the cut throat razor in wide use in those days.   The law prescribed prison time for those caught with a pistol but if a search revealed a razor the criminal could claim it was for personal hygiene - for shaving.  Criminals quickly learned that they were immune from prosecution if caught with this implement.

It is disturbing that we have lately seen a surge in crime with violent attacks on petrol stations and small convenience stores.  Usually one person working alone is confronted by a bandit armed with a knife or gun and the intention of cleaning out the money in the till.   The secondary target is cigarettes.   High value merchandise that is easily converted into cash openly in the pub or at a local market.

This past weekend the Sydney crime scene returned to a vision of the deep past when four people were violently robbed in inner west streets.  Four separate robberies took place within an hour - between12-20 and 1-30 on Saturday morning - by what police believe was the same two intruders. They are described as young men in their early to mid twenties.  One was of African appearance and the other seemed to have a Middle East background and they made their escapes in a small, dark coloured hatchback car.

All four attacks were on men of different age groups.  They were sudden and unprovoked and the victims were pushed to the ground and savagely kicked an punched.  Their pockets were rifled and wallets, phones and personal items taken.  One of the victims suffered a fractured skull and is in hospital in a serious condition.

All four attacks occurred in close proximity in inner west suburbs and it is evident that the attackers sought men walking alone and this was deliberate and well planned.  The fact that the attackers are identified as being from migrant groups seeking entry to escape civil war and violence will not be helpful  in calming those who oppose this policy.

There is a fear that some migrants do not assimilate and bring the animosities that create violence in their home countries with them to Australia.  That has been a feature of all the migrant waves that have washed onto our shores over many decades, and while the majority settle in and become productive citizens, a small minority turn to crime.

Unfortunately, when crime delivers a reward without the criminal getting caught it usually encourages repetition, and with repetition comes increased police activity.  We should not be too alarmed that these robberies will create a trend.  But the wise will take note of what has just happened and avoid becoming a target by walking alone late at night in suspect parts of the city.

There is not any major city anywhere in the world that is free of such crime !

Trial by Media !

Salim Mehajer does not have a wholesome image with many people.  He was the deputy mayor of a Sydney council and his wedding was an extravaganza somewhere between a scene from a Bollywood movie and a Royal coronation.  He is constantly in the news - for all the wrong reasons.  Recently he was arrested for allegedly punching a taxi driver.

He was taken to a police station and charged.  When he left that police station a media pack was waiting.  That scene was shown constantly on news channels and the public saw Mehajer literally having to fight his way to his car with microphones shoved in his face and reporters standing in front of him to block passage.

When he sat in the vehicle Channel 7 reporter Laura Banks forced her way into the gap between the door and the body of the car and shoved a microphone at Mehajer and demanded a comment.  He was looking the other way when he tried to close the door, hitting Banks and bruising her arm.  He was then charged with assault occasioning actual bodily harm.

This week he appeared before magistrate Joanne Keogh to answer that charge, and Keogh was scathing.  She found that the 31 year old property developer was " hunted " by a " frenzied media pack " who showed " appalling and predatory behaviour. "   He was subjected to derisive comments and questions  and Banks took the lead role, poking her microphone at Mehajer even though he asked to be left alone.

The magistrate found that Banks had been a " witness of little credit "  when she spoke at a hearing into the assault, with the reporters evidence not standing up under cross examination. Ms Keogh found that Mejaher did not intend to assault Banks but was " reckless " when he closed the door without looking at her.  She found the conviction proved, but imposed no penalty.

When we watch news broadcasts we constantly see this media aggression descend on ordinary people, some who have just learned of a bereavement.  Often it is a running pursuit as they try to make an escape and often they are pinned in by surrounding news camera people and a horde of interrogators.  It is a merciless hunt for a comment that will often feature in the nightly news.

Most people facing court action are advised by their legal team to avoid any comment because that police warning " that anything you say may be taken down and used against you " applies to what you may say to a reporter as well as the police.   This relentless media pressure for a comment could easily prejudice the outcome of the impending court appearance.

The public have the right to silence and those reporters harassing witnesses can claim that they are simply " doing their job " and that is unfortunately correct.   A reporter who does not aggressively gain news footage will quickly be replaced by someone who will !

Many of the public will get a quiet satisfaction in seeing Mehajer getting the peremptory grilling he dishes out to others, but this media hunt for compelling news stories is getting out of hand and we need a code of conduct to be imposed.  Ordinary people have little in the way of defence against that onslaught !

A Wolf in a Grocers Apron !

Most people think of Woolworths as a giant grocery supermarket with many adjacent liquor outlets. It is engaged in a price battle with Coles and there are few suburbs that do not have a large branch of both conglomerates vying for industry dominance.

Woolworths is also the largest gambling business in the country.  It owns fifty-six pubs in New South Wales and these are home to 1461 poker machines.   The turnover exceeds $78 billion annually and each year seems to break fresh records.

One of the peculiarities of the New South Wales tax system as it applies to poker machine profits is beneficial to Woolworths.  For tax purposes each pub is regarded as an individual business and consequently they are untaxed on takings of under $200,000.   Progressive tax rates then come into play and a pub that takes between $200,000 and $800,000 pays 33 per cent tax.

The higher the turnover, the greater the tax.  Pubs with pokie profits under $4 million pay 36 % tax and those above that pay fifty percent.   Poker machines are a very rewarding source of income for their owners and this graded tax scale was intended to protect the small pub with just a handful of poker machines.

Had the tax man lumped all those Woolworths owned pubs together for tax purposes it would have delivered a very different outcome.   As a single business it would have attracted a tax of just over a hundred million for the 2016/17 tax year instead of the  $72.5 million under this staggered ownership arrangement.

A few years back, the asking price for many pubs was in the doldrums and Woolworths management decision to acquire ownership was a very smart business move.   They foresaw the progression of poker machines from clubs to pubs and now they are reaping the benefits of that forward planning. They have also diversified their investment portfolio.   As that old saying goes.  Not all their eggs are in the grocery basket !

We recently had an example of the risks of diversification.  Woolworths decided to emulate Coles move to establish a stand alone hardware chain and this failed to find favour with the public.  The entire Woolworths organization made a crippling loss in one year and that hardware chain was immediately discontinued.  The company quickly returned to profit.

Many people are unaware that Woolworths own pubs and profit from gambling on poker machines and that does not exactly fit the image they hope to project as the " fresh food people " !  There is a growing movement to ban poker machines because of their addictive nature and the damage they do to living standards.  It is noted that they are concentrated in low socio-economic suburbs.

It seems that Woolworths may be viewed differently by different social groups.  This gambling arm may attract criticism from customers with high social values, but be applauded by investors who see value in their shareholding !

A " Youth " Revolution !

There was something mesmerising about the spectacle of millions of kids pouring out of American schools and staging demonstrations to tell their president that they demanded safety - and the removal of assault rifles from the public to strictly use by the military .

President Trump's reply was a vague suggestion about arming teachers.  Anything to avoid getting the powerful arms lobby offside.  Just imagine the ludicrous image of elderly, untrained teachers with a handgun being expected to do battle with an intruder brandishing a military machine gun with a hundred round clip.  Not even Hollywood would find that believable.

Perhaps this rage will subside and the kids will go back to class - and maybe it will not.  Kids in America get the vote at eighteen and can register at seventeen.  A lot of those demonstrating will be able to vote by the next election and now they have a powerful reason to register - and turn out and have their say.

Traditionally, kids are not interested in politics and choose not to vote, but this could develop into a movement and if it did it would rock the traditional Republican and Democrat parties with their rigid orthodoxy and rejection of compromise.   If the kids of America set their minds to it they could create a new political party that had a fresh approach to righting many wrongs.

If the kids could get their act together and draft a policy platform that embraces the changes that most people want, but  expect will never happen because the stultifying dead hand of traditional politics, they will  be a powerful force to be reckoned with.   Kids talking their politics to Mum and Dad, Grandpa and Grandma can swing a lot of votes and destroy the present " do nothing " complacency.

It must to obvious to most thinking people that politics in America has reached a low ebb. Elections are rarely a real contest because the same old faces hold office term after term and the elected member votes on orthodox lines rather than break new ground.  Failure to toe the party line would ensure disendorsement and the end of life on the " gravy train ".

It all depends if the kids realise the power they hold and can put together a platform that is realistically achievable.  They will need to reject the firebrands who demand the impossible if they are to create a movement that appeals to the average voter.   The fact that voting in America is optional means that a lot of potential voters have given up because they think effective change is now impossible.

An opportunity exists for a creative change in American politics.   Now it all depends on a few charismatic leaders emerging from the pack, seizing the attention of the kids calling for change and creating a " movement " that lasts the difference in young peoples attention spans.   If they can make politics as enchanting as the latest music sensation or dance sequence it could bring about an American revival that is desperately needed.

This seems to be an opportunity as profound as the " Suffragettes " who toiled to give women the vote, or the rescission of the law that only permitted property owners to record a vote.   The missing item in American politics has always been the youth vote.   Perhaps now its time has come !

Simply a " Bad Idea " !

Former prime minister Tony Abbott has dropped the cat amongst the pigeons with a demand that our immigration numbers be reduced from the present 190,000 annually to a new level of 110,000.  He suggests that this will miraculously cure the ever rising price of homes and force pay levels to at least match inflation.

That might be a comforting thought if we were not the last underdeveloped land mass on planet earth and our world was not heading to a population explosion that will test the food supply.  Our present population of over twenty-four million people is miniscule by world standards and we already look understocked in comparison with our neighbours.

Remember that maxim of " Populate - or Perish " that became the catch-cry after the end of the second world war ?  Before that war we had looked to Britain to defend this country.  When it became obvious that was beyond them, we looked to America.  At wars end we opened our doors to the dispossessed of Europe and we experienced a growth rate that has ever since powered our economy.

Along with the rest of the world we are experiencing an unprecedented bubble in house prices and stagnant wage levels.  The finger has been pointed at African gang warfare in Melbourne.  Every culture that has landed on our shores has brought their internal crime culture with them and we remember the Mafia and the Triads which our security forces eventually tamed.

The thought of eighty thousand fewer people coming to Australia each year would be a cause for consternation in economic circles.    The Australian economy is built around that expectation and the hit to the budget would be around $4 to $5 billion over the next four years.  The statisticians point out that despite the belief that migrants absorb welfare and give little back, in reality they are more entrepreneurial than most other people and quickly engorge the money flow with a host of new activities.  They are very much contributors to the Australian economy.

There is something defeatist about a plan to block the migrant intake in the hope that it reduces demand for houses and somehow causes a worker shortage that pushes up wages.   Do we really want to descend into a rut where little changes and the economy coasts along in neutral ?

Unfortunately, we seem in the grip of a sort of " business inertia ".   A lot of businesses are making healthy profits, but seem more interested in buying out competitors and reducing competition than expanding into new profit lines.   That will not benefit if the migrant flow ebbs to a trickle and the market for goods slows accordingly.

That old maxim of " Populate or Perish " is as valid today as it was after the end of the second world war.   We live in an ever expanding and dangerous world.   If the pundits are right and this world is heading into a food shortage, envious eyes will be looking at this vast great land mass - and assessing the capability of its defences.

This is indeed a numbers game !

The War Within !

Its starting to look like the biggest threat to the United States of America comes from the very people who have the right to call themselves American citizens.   America has degenerated into a vast armed camp and there are actually more guns in circulation that citizens as revealed in the last census.

It seems that in most states the average citizen can walk into a gun shop or attend one of the numerous gun fairs and legally buy an assault rifle capable of automatic fire that was designed to be a military weapon.  Various multi round magazines are on offer and the public has access to weapons capable of waging war on a battlefield.

This is a cherished right written into the constitution when the American colonies fought a war to gain independence from Britain.  At that time, the weapons industry had not progressed beyond the capacity of muzzle loading firearms and the country was sparsely settled.  Putting food on the family table relied on hunting for many people and citizens were encountering armed opposition to their western expansion from the lands original inhabitants.

The movie industry made untold money from the gun toting days of the American wild west and the gangster era that arose from prohibition, but now the right to own a gun has become enmeshed in politics.  The National Rifle Association is a giant pro gun lobby encased within the Republican movement and many homes are simply arsenals stocked with many weapons and enough ammunition to run a war.

It raises an interesting question.  Why does the average person need an assault rifle ?  It certainly is not for hunting. The hunter aims to be a marksman who delivers a head shot, not to riddle whatever is in the point of aim like a colander.  There are vague notions about " defending the country against invaders "  but that is the task of the very efficient American military.

We are now seeing regular massacres of innocent people and they usually involve an assault rifle. Tragically, the victims are often school children, or in one recent case, crowds attending a music festival.  Often the perpetrator is someone suffering a mental illness - and that does not seem to prevent them obtaining a gun.

It is evident that nothing is about to change.  The NRA is a powerful body extolling the right to own a gun and the politicians on both sides of the political divide are terrified of its power to influence the vote.  The time is probably right for a new American political part to emerge with a gun control platform and the aim to abolish private ownership of assault rifles.   It would be interesting to see how many would desert the old Republican and Democrat ranks for a third party promising background checks to gun purchases and sensible legislation to allow gun ownership, but the total prohibition of assault rifles in private ownership.

That seems the only way this gun issue is going to be decided by the ordinary men and women who are horrified by these constant massacres and know that the necessary legislation to correct the imbalance will never be delivered by the present political system.

We have just seen a monumental change in the way Americans chose to deliver their vote.  Perhaps gun control is the issue that can continue that momentum and sweep away what has become a growing cancer on American society !