A New Export Industry !

One of the problems that set Japan on a war footing that evolved into the second world war was its tiny geographical footprint on the planet, and its lack of the base natural materials needed to sustain its production industry.  It took the course of invasion and conquest as the way to solve that dilemma.

Modern Japan is fast developing an industry to produce hydrogen gas as the replacement fuel for nuclear energy and to replace the import needs for oil and natural gas.  That has the advantage of production from a very reliable base material - water.

Hydrogen is produced when water is subjected to a process called electrolysis, splitting water into hydrogen and oxygen, hence the scientific term for water is H20.  It is estimated that when the Japanese plan for hydrogen production reaches maturity in 2030 the cost per kilogram of the Australian product will be a dollar a kilogram cheaper than the Japanese produced product price..  This has drawn an interest here from the Council of Australian Governments which has released a consultation paper on our national hydrogen strategy.

Chief Scientist Alan Finkel sees an opportunity for Australia to develop a hydrogen industry because we have something that Japan lacks - the space to create hydrogen from electrolysis without the consequent increase in the release of greenhouse gases.

The ideal combination for electrolysis is for that process to be fuelled by solar electricity and we have vast areas available for such developments close to a sustainable body of water - the ocean  Hydrogen production is perfectly viable from salt water. The use of renewable energy completes the cycle where a valuable export is obtained without increasing our production of greenhouse gas.

Analysis by the International Energy Agency shows that production of hydrogen in Australia would have a price advantage over the cost to produce in Japan even when transport costs are taken into account.   It is estimated that Australian hydrogen would have a price advantage of being a dollar a kilogram cheaper than the $6.50 it would cost Japan to produce when production reaches maturity in 2030.

Hydrogen has long been an energy enigma.  That car industry has been looking at it as a replacement for oil derived petrol for running the internal combustion engine but that is being replaced by electric motors and batteries.  It could be that hydrogen becomes the fuel component for long distance heavy transport where batteries have problems.  The hydrogen fuel cell is at an advanced stage of development.

Australia is fast becoming the biggest exporter of natural gas to a world with an insatiable demand for energy.  There seems no reason why we can not tap into world demand with hydrogen and allow both energy sources to compete for business.

Car Theft Enigma !

The car insurance industry has come under the spotlight  because its investigators are accused of heavy handed tactics when they seek to eliminate outright fraud which is prevalent in accident claims.  The main victim has been the compulsory third party insurance required when every car registration is renewed and it was discovered that this was becoming a new industry with carefully managed, low speed crashes where a multitude of people claimed compensation for injuries which were difficult to medically disprove.

Now attention is directed at how claims for stolen cars are handled.  An enquiry by the Australian Securities and Investment Commission found that only a small proportion of claims are actually investigated and that seventy percent are usually passed for payment.   On average, only four percent are rejected on the basis that the claim is fraudulent.

One of the instances examined  was the experience of a man who had the misfortune of having his car stolen from the carport outside his home and which was later found abandoned - and torched.   A lengthy investigation concluded that he had not dealt with the insurer in good faith and the claim was rejected.

This man persisted, obtained help from Financial Rights Legal Centre and after two years the claim was approved and he got his insurance money.  But successive information requests over the length of the investigation included a search to discover if he had a criminal record and perusal of his bank accounts, telephone and text records and even his social media activities.  He found the investigation intrusive and the insurer has apologised.

The vast majority of the cars on Australian roads are less than ten years old.  The safety aspect of the modern car makes incremental bounds with each new model and safety has never been more paramount.  The only thing that fails to increase - year to year - is the security that prevents the car being drive away by a thief.

Those with a long memory recall the promises that have been made to deliver car security.  All cars not so long ago came with a steering security lock.   You needed to park with the wheels inclined towards the kerb and the security lock prevented any form of steering until the key deactivated that security device.  A few years later it was announced all new cars would be automatically fitted with an " Immobilizer "  that prevented the engine being started.  This was something installed by the car manufacturer, but it seems that a fifteen year old kid, armed with a screwdriver is still capable of making off with the average vehicle in less than a minute.

We live in a marvellous, electronic age and the only conclusion is that the car industry is simply not interested in vehicle security.  Unfortunately, it seems that includes the actual new car buyers.  In todays world it is all about convenience and  buyers seem disinclined to pay money for car security or to fuss about setting and unsetting security devices to protect their investment.

One of those precautions involved discontinuing the wiring colour code so that a bandit could not simply connect two wires to circumvent the ignition switch.  It seems that was abandoned after complaints from the electrical repair industry about the inconvenience it would cause  repair technicians.

Despite the involvement of the modern car as an example of high end technology, it remains a thieves dream.  It will remain that way until the inclusion of a device to consistently stop theft must be in place before the car can be covered for theft insurance.   It will take that sort of legislation to get the car industry to take theft seriously.

Limiting Jury Trials !

One of the basics of our justice system is the need for the prosecution to convince a jury of twelve of our peers that we are guilty. The task of the judge in such a trial is to ensure that both the prosecution and the defence scrupulously remain within the boundaries of how evidence may be presented.  It is only after a verdict of guilty has been delivered by that jury that a judge has the task of determining the penalty that would be appropriate for the crime committed.

The vast majority of jury trials are held in either the Supreme court or the District court, with the majority taking place in the District court and both are subjected to long delays. Often the accused waits years for his or her case to make it onto a judge's docket and gain a place for a scheduled hearing.  Where bail has been refused, the accused spends that time locked away in prison and this is an aspect of prison reform that has long awaited improvement.

The New South Wales Bar Association represents two thousand four hundred barristers who are available to be the representative of the accused in court and who will present the defence.  Their reputation for achieving success grades both the skills they bring to achieving acquittals and the fees they charge for their services.  Where an accused lacks the financial ability to hire such a barrister, the court appoints one but he or she is usually at the start of their legal career and do not have wide court experience.

The problem is the growing complexity of court trials that involve many criminal matters and which are beyond the scope of ordinary men and women to understand.  The chief judge will conduct an enquiry which will look at five main areas including pre-trial case management, the use of technology to drive efficiencies and the potential for limiting jury use in certain circumstances.  That sounds ominously like a move towards trial by a judge alone and without the balance of the presence of a jury.

Convincing a jury of twelve ordinary people drawn from the wide spectrum of life was the fulcrum of the justice system.  Twelve impartial people were selected at random and evidence presented needed to convince them of guilt.  It was the task of the defence to suggest reasons why that evidence should be disbelieved.   It required a unanimous verdict of those twelve people to deliver a guilty verdict and the doubt of a single juror was sufficient for the accused to regain his or her freedom.

Deciding a case purely on technicalities set before a judge will probably raise the conviction rate - and speed trials, but is that the sort of " justice " we expect from the courts ?  In particular, we now seem to favour using what are termed " sentencing options " before the case goes to court.   The prosecution negotiates a heavily discounted prison sentence in exchange for the accused pleading guilty- and avoiding the trial entirely.   This is also called " plea bargaining ".

In some overseas jurisdictions the pressure is such that the innocent choose prison to avoid the extraordinary sentences that will be imposed by a guilty verdict at trial.  It is the lessor of two evils and many innocent people go to prison in the interest or speeding the justice system.  We need to be very careful to ensure that reform of the court system that has been in place for many centuries does not replace a fair trial with automatic conviction as the way of speeding up the justice system.

A jury trial remains the apex of our system of justice and we mess with that at our peril  !

Lead Poisoning !

There must be an amazing number of people in the world who have survived and recovered from a gunshot wound.  Unfortunately, many suffer from a debilitating aftermath that goes completely undiagnosed.  Many are surprised to learn that they are suffering from lead poisoning.

When that soft, lead bullet strikes bone it usually shatters and tiny fragments penetrate deeply into surrounding flesh and muscle.  Trauma surgeons probe to remove as much of the bullet as possible but going after the bullet residue involves cutting deeply into healthy tissue and they elect to leave those fragments in the body.

Long after the wounds have healed gunshot victims often complain of symptoms such as fatigue, headache, abdominal pain and nausea and these are usually incorrectly attributed to a range of other illnesses.  The true cause is only revealed when the victim takes a blood test to determine his or her lead level.

An average, healthy person will probably have had a blood lead level of two micrograms per decilitre of blood, but that is now falling since lead has been removed from paint and from the petrol we use to fuel our cars.  The American CDC recommends that anyone with a lead level above five micrograms should urgently start a programme called "chelation ".  That is usually successful in reducing the blood lead level back to that two percent stability.

Unfortunately, having been shot is not the only way to get lead poisoning.  Animals that met their death at the hands of hunters usually contain bullet residue and that is particularly evident in birds brought down by shotgun pellets.  Tiny lead particles pass through the victims digestion system when such game is eaten and some of this lead remains in the body.

This came to the attention of the authorities in California when it was noticed that the giant Condor bird numbers were declining.   These birds are carrion and it was found they were eating body parts left by hunters and their decline was caused by lead poisoning.   California has since passed laws that remove lead from sporting ammunition, but this is being resisted by the National Rifle Association. Lead has long been the preferred bullet base by ammunition manufacturers because it is both cheap and plentiful - and easy to mould into shape.

Ammunition can be created from a range of other metals but that would increase the cost factor and be unpopular with hunting enthusiasts.  Game shooting has not developed in Australia to the extent practised in some other countries but this link between lead ammunition and lead poisoning remains a hidden danger.  People suffering the symptoms which are common to a range of ailments might be wise to have a blood test to check their lead level

The " Defence " of Australia !

When the independent colonies that are now the Australian states joined together to form this country at the start of the twentieth century we looked to Great Britain to defend us.  That was logical because not only was it our " mother " country but it was also the richest and most military powerful in the world.

That changed during the second world war.  Britain was fighting for its own survival and was unable to commit to Australia's defence - and the Japanese were threatening us with invasion.  We turned to the United States and when that war ended with the start of the nuclear age it seemed natural to continue to shelter under the American nuclear umbrella.

One of this country's foremost defence strategists and defence analysts suggest in his book that we should now develop our own nuclear weapons in case the growing power of China eventually poses a threat.  He contends that there is similar thinking in other countries with a similar stance to Australia and those include Japan, Germany and South Korea.   It raises the question of whether the United States would go to nuclear war in defence of allies with which it has defence treaties.

Perhaps the greatest danger to world peace would be the proliferation of nuclear weapons in the hands of the countries the nuclear proliferation treaty is designed to prevent.  Despite great power tensions, the world has avoided a nuclear war in the decades since nuclear weapons have been restricted to a small bevy of nations.   It raises the question of whether having a nuclear defence serves a definitive purpose, or whether it simply makes that country an inevitable nuclear target in a nuclear war ?

If Australia did go nuclear the logical application of that defence would take the form of submarines equipped with ballistic missiles.  As a deterrent that offers the hope of persuading an aggressor that a first strike would bring a nuclear response that would be unavoidable, but with our population concentrated in a handful of great cities that nuclear option would leave us vulnerable.

Going nuclear would also come at a cost.  We would need to raise defence spending from the present 2% of GDP to 3.5% and find another thirty billion dollars a year.  That would certainly impose an austerity regime and curtail the spending plans under way to improve public health and education.  It is not possible to have an advanced nuclear defence system and at the same time continue to create an improved standard of living that serves the civil population.

We might be wise to leave the nuclear genie in the bottle.  Our defence needs are capable of fending off any of our neighbours with invasion plans and in the event of a world nuclear war it is probable that there might be no survivors.   There is also the possibility that those in the northern hemisphere may destroy one another and the peaceful non nuclear countries to the south may survive.

The only thing absolutely certain is that life as we know it would end if we became a target in a nuclear war.  Neither the ability to mount and deliver either offence or defence changes that outcome. We would be wise to not pin our hopes on winning a nuclear war  !

The " Spanish Flu " Remembered !

Flu is just something that turns up regularly each year and we suffer a bout of the sneezes and runny noses, or is this years flu something more sinister  ?  We are only one third of the way into winter and nearly 33,000 people are confirmed infected in this state alone - and fifty-seven have died of its effects.  No wonder that calls to get a vaccine jab have become so urgent.

It is a fact that this flu epidemic is now twice the numbers of past average flu years and science has long predicted that the greatest threat that humankind faces will come in the form of an epidemic.  In earlier centuries the world was afflicted with Bubonic Plague, which was spread by the fleas carried by rats. Then in the winters of 1918-19 the world suffered what became known as the " Spanish Flu " and it is estimated that it killed about a hundred and fifty million across the globe.

It started in a farm state in America and researchers conclude that it achieved the breakthrough that allowed the passage from animals to humans to occur via some form of water bird, probably ducks. The United States had entered the first world war and the timing was atrocious.   Huge numbers of fresh troops were being packed on ships for the passage to Europe and this epidemic spread like wildfire.  By wars end, more soldiers and civilians were being killed by the flu than deaths occurring on the battlefield.

That Spanish flu is still a part medical mystery.  For reasons not yet known, fit and otherwise healthy adults were more likely to die and children were more likely to make a recovery, but it was a particularly unpleasant death and it came very quickly.  The sufferer began to cough up blood and the lungs quickly filled with fluid.  People simply drowned in their own juices.  Those who recovered from the Spanish flu had life long immunity from the disease.

This epidemic picked an opportune time to strike.  The end of the first world war saw thousands of troops returning home - and bringing the flu with them.  It was extremely contagious and it spread through the civilian population.  Fortunately, at that time the means of travel between world countries was mainly by ship and this slowed the progress of the flu and allowed for an effective quarantine.  In the age of air transport we might not be so lucky if that epidemic ever re-emerges.

One of the mysteries of this Spanish flu was the abrupt ending of the epidemic.  It rampaged through the world - and just as suddenly as it started it came to an end.  Millions of victims were hastily buried and yet there has been no infections caused by progress intruding into those graves.  Today that Spanish flu is as big a mystery as it was at the end of  the first world war - and we are still no closer to finding a cure.

It is a sobering thought as we have two more months of winter to endure.  This is not the Spanish flu returning, but it is something that should be causing us concern - and a good reason to have that flu jab.

War with Iran ?

When someone starts blowing up oil tankers in the Straits of Hormuz that looks like the first shots in a Gulf war. Iran has had a long term ambition to develop a nuclear weapon and it took a deal with the west to delay that until some time in the future.  Unfortunately, the United States has withdrawn from that deal and now all bets are off and Iran is again amassing enriched uranium as the prelude to creating a bomb.

Donald Trump has made it clear that he will prevent a nuclear Iran, even if that means going to war. Originally, this nuclear club restricted itself to the great powers of that era.  The United States, Britain, France, China and Russia.  Since then both India and Pakistan have forced their way into the list of nuclear armed nations and Israel - with a nod and a wink from the US - has a hidden nuclear arsenal.  Against all odds, the hermit kingdom of North Korea managed to acquire nuclear weapons and the means to deliver them by intercontinental ballistic missiles, eluding the restraints of the great powers.

One of the problems is that Iran is a theocracy.  It is run by religious zealots and it is clearly taking sides with the religious divide that exists in the middle east.  A nuclear Iran would destabilize the Arab world and there is always the chance that religion would see the nuclear deterrent pass into other hands amongst the tribes seeking a personal homeland.   The thought of misfits like Islamic State getting their hands on a bomb would be a nightmare.

What is frustrating is that Iran was abiding by the terms embedded in that nuclear deal and this is clearly confirmed by all the other co-signing nations.  The United States withdrew solely on the personal opinion of its president that he disliked the terms of the deal. Donald Trump's presidency is unlike that of any of his predecessors.

In about eighteen months America will decide if Donald Trump is given another term in office, or if a replacement will sit in the oval office.  Perhaps the other great world powers would be wise to demand that Iran stay its hand on enriching uranium until that event is determined.  A new incoming American president would most likely gladly re-enter the deal that Iran was honouring.  Donald Trump has not only withdrawn from the deal, he has imposed crippling sanctions on the Iranian economy.  Iran has a valid reason for complaint.

The danger is that with eighteen months in office Trump may decide to take up the war option.   In fact, Iran may be the one to start that war if its economy suffers to the point that its continuation as a viable trading nation is threatened.  These tanker attacks could serve the purpose of calling the Iranian population to arms.

It seems evident that the other great powers of this world need to deliver an ultimatum to Donald Trump.  There will be no support for a war with Iran.  That would certainly impose a limit on the action that an American president could take in a world united against such a war.