All the opinion polls are quite clear, although the numbers vary from area to area. The majority of Australia's residents accept that homosexuality is no longer a crime and that same sex marriage will soon become legal in Australia. The problem is that a small, hard core of people with either religious objections or who follow a tight moral code are still bitterly opposed, and many of them are in high places where they hold positions of power.
A minority of politicians are blocking the passage of same sex marriage legislation in the parliament and being "Gay " can reduce promotion prospects in many aspects of the commercial world. Many national companies which openly claim to have "gender equality and Gay acceptance policies "in place actually practice the reverse.
It a fact of life that attitudes change over a period of time. In the early part of the twentieth century the Gay community remained hidden in the closet and were virtually "unmentionable ". The "coming out " was a traumatic period for many and it was only when Gays began to take their place in society that attitudes changed. Today, Gays are openly serving in our armed forces.
Perhaps the last bastion of homophobia is lurking in our police force. Many Sydney residents may remember the first Gay Mardi Gras decades ago. The state government refused to grant it a parade license - so it was held unlawfully. The attitude of the police was very mixed. Some officers enthusiastically swung batons and tried to drag contestants off floats. Many others simply stood aside and watched the parade, and took no action.
Today, Gays serve openly in the NSW police and official policy is one of complete acceptance. Gay recruits do their training at the police academy without discrimination and the police promotion system is supposed to grant elevation purely on merit. The police now actually enter a float in each years Gay Mardi Gras.
Disquietening evidence has emerged that Gay officers seemed to be concentrated in one inner Sydney police district and that this was subjected to an undercover investigation which was obstensively tasked with detecting the illegal use of drugs. Gay officers claim they were singled out and they feel that this was a move by senior level officers to remove Gays from police ranks.
There has been an investigation, and as is so often the case when police investigate other police, a finding that there is "no evidence "of wrong doing has emerged. Of course, even a rumour that Gay police are not really welcome into police ranks will do damage and cause potential Gay recruits from even thinking of joining the police force. Whats the point - if discrimination still exists and pathways to promotion are blocked ?
One of the essentials of a free society is equal treatment by the police. Even at a matter such as a traffic stop the attending policeman or policewoman makes a judgement. Your explanation of what happened is either believes - or rejected. If that person making judgement has a prejudice against Gays - that can be a decisive factor.
We will soon have a new police Commissioner. One of his most urgent tasks will be to cleanse his senior management of homophobic views. If personal prejudices are allowed to filter police attitudes the laws passed by parliament will not be fully implemented and Gays will remain "second class citizens "!
Sunday, 9 October 2016
Saturday, 8 October 2016
End Of An ERA !
It was a sad day yesterday in Geelong. The last Ford cars rolled off the production line and six hundred employees received their termination pay cheques. Unfortunately, worse days are to follow. Next year General Motors will end its car production here in Australia and a few months later Toyota will follow. The closure of Australian car manufacturing will probably result in the loss of six thousand five hundred direct jobs, plus an unknown number in the various industries that feed in components.
Over the years a host of International car companies have tried their hand in Australia - and pulled out a few years later. Car manufacturing was concentrated in Victoria and South Australia but some New South Wales residents may remember Leylands ill-fated move to establish a factory here in Sydney - resulting in the arrival of the " P-76 " !
The use of robotics has reduced the human workload in the car industry, but it is still labour intensive and our high wage regime puts us at a disadvantage compared to Asia. As a result, the Australian government was forced to prop up the local industry with ever increasing subsidies and to protect locally produced cars with tariffs on imports. Relief in this sector has lowered new car prices and we now drive a more modern - and safer - car fleet. The sight of a ten year old car on our roads is becoming rare.
The way ahead for what we term the "family car "is uncertain. For a while it looked like the internal combustion engine would give way to either the hybrid or the entirely electric car, but now the development of the driverless car is reaching frenetic pace. The concept of hiring when we need transport rather than owning something that spends most of its time idle is an entirely new concept. Traditional car manufacturers are watching market trends with trepidation. This seems to be the biggest transition in people moving since the Model T replaced the horse.
We seem to be heading in a new direction which involves almost every aspect of life as we know it. If we no longer own cars, the suburban garage which is now part of every home becomes redundant,and that certainly solved the parking problem that plagues those living in high rise apartments. Traffic gridlock becomes a thing of the past if small driverless "pods " replace moving people from transport hubs to their final destinations.
So far, nobody has meaningfully suggested a cost factor but we are assured that driverless cars will rock the insurance industry. The huge cost of greenslip insurance could drop to a few dollars and if we no longer own a vehicle we would have no need to insure it against theft or accident. So far, the governments need for tax dollars and how that will apply to fleets of electric hire cars - is unknown.
It seems that we are on the cusp of a changing era. Car manufacturing in Australia is about to become a thing of the past - and the future is unknown. We will now have the benefit of world manufacturers offering us their products at very competitive prices without the distortion of tariffs to protect local production. As a result, the guarantees offering and the price of lower range new cars has completely decimated the used car market price. We can afford to be driving a shiny new world class car.
While it is sad to see iconic models like the Falcon and the Commodore retreat from the local market, the timing is right for Australia. The car world is stepping into the unknown and without a car manufacturing industry all the benefits and few of the losses seem to be headed our way.
Over the years a host of International car companies have tried their hand in Australia - and pulled out a few years later. Car manufacturing was concentrated in Victoria and South Australia but some New South Wales residents may remember Leylands ill-fated move to establish a factory here in Sydney - resulting in the arrival of the " P-76 " !
The use of robotics has reduced the human workload in the car industry, but it is still labour intensive and our high wage regime puts us at a disadvantage compared to Asia. As a result, the Australian government was forced to prop up the local industry with ever increasing subsidies and to protect locally produced cars with tariffs on imports. Relief in this sector has lowered new car prices and we now drive a more modern - and safer - car fleet. The sight of a ten year old car on our roads is becoming rare.
The way ahead for what we term the "family car "is uncertain. For a while it looked like the internal combustion engine would give way to either the hybrid or the entirely electric car, but now the development of the driverless car is reaching frenetic pace. The concept of hiring when we need transport rather than owning something that spends most of its time idle is an entirely new concept. Traditional car manufacturers are watching market trends with trepidation. This seems to be the biggest transition in people moving since the Model T replaced the horse.
We seem to be heading in a new direction which involves almost every aspect of life as we know it. If we no longer own cars, the suburban garage which is now part of every home becomes redundant,and that certainly solved the parking problem that plagues those living in high rise apartments. Traffic gridlock becomes a thing of the past if small driverless "pods " replace moving people from transport hubs to their final destinations.
So far, nobody has meaningfully suggested a cost factor but we are assured that driverless cars will rock the insurance industry. The huge cost of greenslip insurance could drop to a few dollars and if we no longer own a vehicle we would have no need to insure it against theft or accident. So far, the governments need for tax dollars and how that will apply to fleets of electric hire cars - is unknown.
It seems that we are on the cusp of a changing era. Car manufacturing in Australia is about to become a thing of the past - and the future is unknown. We will now have the benefit of world manufacturers offering us their products at very competitive prices without the distortion of tariffs to protect local production. As a result, the guarantees offering and the price of lower range new cars has completely decimated the used car market price. We can afford to be driving a shiny new world class car.
While it is sad to see iconic models like the Falcon and the Commodore retreat from the local market, the timing is right for Australia. The car world is stepping into the unknown and without a car manufacturing industry all the benefits and few of the losses seem to be headed our way.
Friday, 7 October 2016
A Daunting Task !
At last the decision has been made ! The five veto wielding members of the United Nations Security Council have reached consensus and the next Secretary General of the world body will be Antonio Guterres, the former prime minister of Portugal.
Some will offer him their condolences ! In recent times the job of Secretary General has been an impossible job trying to meditate the warring factions behind so many actual shooting wars plus the antagonism between the western way of life and the closed societies that insist on rule by decree. The present Secretary General, Korea's Ban Ki-Moon will lay down his task with relief and enjoy a well earned retirement.
Antonio Guterres comes well equipped for the job. After he served as Portugal's prime minister he spent ten years administering the United Nations Refugee agency, and he fluently speaks English, French, Spanish and Portuguese.
Many people regard the United Nations as a failed world body and a continuation of the similarly failed old League of Nations which was formed after the immense slaughter of the first World War.
The concept at both bodies was for all nations to sit at the conference table as equals and use their combined strength to decide world issues and prevent war. In neither instance did it work out that way.
In every age since the Roman Empire the world has been dominated by super powers, usually with both the power of wealth and military arms. They form power blocks with lesser nations of such strengths and become de facto rulers of the world, often achieving their ends by the way of proxy wars.
The present United Nations structure had to take notice of five major nations all equipped with nuclear arms. They became permanent members of the Security Council - each with the power of Veto. Essentially, the task of the Secretary General is to negotiate with this " inner body " and to concede just enough so that consensus is achieved. Unfortunately, on the issues that matter this is rarely possible and is the main reason why we still have active shooting wars.
The Secretary General must be a person of rare insight and skill. He or she must be a negotiator with extreme patience and have the ability to juggle trade, world agreements and the deployment of United Nations armed forces as the Chess pieces of diplomatic relations. There are usually many more failures than successes in the deliberations of the world body.
Some Australians will be incensed - and others relieved - that one of our former prime ministers was not considered for the job. Kevin Rudd certainly put his hand up and looked to the Australian government for support, but it was not forthcoming. Rudd's terms in office were marked by micro management and snap decisions and that is not the way of International diplomacy. It is doubtful that Rudd could have got the necessary consensus from that inner body to become the next Secretary General.
Now that Antonio Guterres is confirmed he will be the man in the spotlight on the world stage. World peace will probably depend on the skills he brings to the job !
Some will offer him their condolences ! In recent times the job of Secretary General has been an impossible job trying to meditate the warring factions behind so many actual shooting wars plus the antagonism between the western way of life and the closed societies that insist on rule by decree. The present Secretary General, Korea's Ban Ki-Moon will lay down his task with relief and enjoy a well earned retirement.
Antonio Guterres comes well equipped for the job. After he served as Portugal's prime minister he spent ten years administering the United Nations Refugee agency, and he fluently speaks English, French, Spanish and Portuguese.
Many people regard the United Nations as a failed world body and a continuation of the similarly failed old League of Nations which was formed after the immense slaughter of the first World War.
The concept at both bodies was for all nations to sit at the conference table as equals and use their combined strength to decide world issues and prevent war. In neither instance did it work out that way.
In every age since the Roman Empire the world has been dominated by super powers, usually with both the power of wealth and military arms. They form power blocks with lesser nations of such strengths and become de facto rulers of the world, often achieving their ends by the way of proxy wars.
The present United Nations structure had to take notice of five major nations all equipped with nuclear arms. They became permanent members of the Security Council - each with the power of Veto. Essentially, the task of the Secretary General is to negotiate with this " inner body " and to concede just enough so that consensus is achieved. Unfortunately, on the issues that matter this is rarely possible and is the main reason why we still have active shooting wars.
The Secretary General must be a person of rare insight and skill. He or she must be a negotiator with extreme patience and have the ability to juggle trade, world agreements and the deployment of United Nations armed forces as the Chess pieces of diplomatic relations. There are usually many more failures than successes in the deliberations of the world body.
Some Australians will be incensed - and others relieved - that one of our former prime ministers was not considered for the job. Kevin Rudd certainly put his hand up and looked to the Australian government for support, but it was not forthcoming. Rudd's terms in office were marked by micro management and snap decisions and that is not the way of International diplomacy. It is doubtful that Rudd could have got the necessary consensus from that inner body to become the next Secretary General.
Now that Antonio Guterres is confirmed he will be the man in the spotlight on the world stage. World peace will probably depend on the skills he brings to the job !
Thursday, 6 October 2016
Bad Taste !
Nine sports mad Australian men between the ages of twenty-five and twenty-nine travelled to Malaysia to watch the Malaysian Grand Prix. When Australian driver Daniel Ricciardo won the event they applauded the win in typical Aussie fashion. They drank a lot of beer and they cheered loudly - using the refrain "Aussie Aussie Aussie - Oi Oi Oi ". What carried the merriment further was their stripping to what they term an Aussie swimming costume in the hot Malaysian sun. Unfortunately, their choice of apparel was printed to represent the Malaysian national flag - and many in the crowd took umbrage.
What was intended as a bit of fun has escalated to an International incident. The nine were promptly arrested and they have spent several days in a police cell while the Malaysian prosecutors decide whether to apply a fine, deport them or put them before a court to face charges which carry a two year prison sentence.
This came at a bad time in Malaysia. The ruling political party is under stress because millions have been siphoned out of a national wealth fund and blame has been sheeted home to the prime minister. Any issue that diverts public attention away from that mess is welcomed.
The Australian diplomatic mission to Malaysia is keeping contact with the prisoners but as with all breaches of local law the outcome rests entirely on whether the host government decides to play hardball or takes a friendly approach and delivers a mere slap on the wrist. To some degree, it will be affected by how much Malaysian public opinion has been affronted and whether a soft decision will create public outrage.
This seems to be another of those embarrassing incidents when visiting Australians fail to take notice of local customs. Malaysia is a predominantly Muslim country which forbids the imbibing of alcohol. What was seen as drunken behaviour in public would not have gone down well with other spectators. Even worse, stripping to what Muslims would consider their underwear would be a serious affront to local custom. The Muslim religion insists that the body, arms and legs be covered at all times, hence the Australian TV viewer sees what is often termed the Muslim national dress code for men of trousers, with a long sleeved shirt not tucked in but allowed to float free below waist level. Most Muslinms would consider the display of underwear offensive.
To cap this off, the Australian men were displaying the Malaysian flag on this garment and many would consider that as an intended insult to their country. The Australians were proudly waving their national flag while the flag of their host country was displayed as an item of underwear. Of course, to the Australians it was regarded as a swimming costume, but that difference would have been lost on most Malaysian viewers.
No doubt these nine Australians intended no insult and their behaviour would have been precisely the same at an Australian Grand Prix. The difference was that they did not bother to learn a little about the laws and customs of the country they were visiting. All too often we consider that the laws of Australia are universal across the world and we offend others by our ignorance.
In the next few days the fate of the Australian nine will be decided. One of them is an adviser to Australian defence minister Christopher Pyne and all may face repercussions from their employers on return. Hopefully it is a lesson learned. Pay attention to local laws and customs well before you set foot in any foreign land !
What was intended as a bit of fun has escalated to an International incident. The nine were promptly arrested and they have spent several days in a police cell while the Malaysian prosecutors decide whether to apply a fine, deport them or put them before a court to face charges which carry a two year prison sentence.
This came at a bad time in Malaysia. The ruling political party is under stress because millions have been siphoned out of a national wealth fund and blame has been sheeted home to the prime minister. Any issue that diverts public attention away from that mess is welcomed.
The Australian diplomatic mission to Malaysia is keeping contact with the prisoners but as with all breaches of local law the outcome rests entirely on whether the host government decides to play hardball or takes a friendly approach and delivers a mere slap on the wrist. To some degree, it will be affected by how much Malaysian public opinion has been affronted and whether a soft decision will create public outrage.
This seems to be another of those embarrassing incidents when visiting Australians fail to take notice of local customs. Malaysia is a predominantly Muslim country which forbids the imbibing of alcohol. What was seen as drunken behaviour in public would not have gone down well with other spectators. Even worse, stripping to what Muslims would consider their underwear would be a serious affront to local custom. The Muslim religion insists that the body, arms and legs be covered at all times, hence the Australian TV viewer sees what is often termed the Muslim national dress code for men of trousers, with a long sleeved shirt not tucked in but allowed to float free below waist level. Most Muslinms would consider the display of underwear offensive.
To cap this off, the Australian men were displaying the Malaysian flag on this garment and many would consider that as an intended insult to their country. The Australians were proudly waving their national flag while the flag of their host country was displayed as an item of underwear. Of course, to the Australians it was regarded as a swimming costume, but that difference would have been lost on most Malaysian viewers.
No doubt these nine Australians intended no insult and their behaviour would have been precisely the same at an Australian Grand Prix. The difference was that they did not bother to learn a little about the laws and customs of the country they were visiting. All too often we consider that the laws of Australia are universal across the world and we offend others by our ignorance.
In the next few days the fate of the Australian nine will be decided. One of them is an adviser to Australian defence minister Christopher Pyne and all may face repercussions from their employers on return. Hopefully it is a lesson learned. Pay attention to local laws and customs well before you set foot in any foreign land !
Wednesday, 5 October 2016
StandOver Tactics !
The usual Internet scammers have long used phone calls supposedly from the tax department to scare people into paying imaginary tax bills. You get a surprise phone call and someone who identifies as being from a government department explains that there has been an error in your tax return - and you owe the government a nominated sum of money. The tone of the callers voice then usually becomes very demanding and all sorts of unpleasant outcomes are threatened - unless this bill is paid immediately.
A variety of methods are used to gain the money, all of which are quickly discontinued immediately after use and which defy searches if the police are alerted. This scam has netted hundreds of thousands of dollars from honest people who have been stampeded into paying money they do not owe
Wise people simply hangup the phone because they know the tax department serves notice of any tax matter via the mail and never demands money over the phone, but the elderly and those not schooled in business practice are susceptible to shock tactics and often fall victim to this sort of crime.
The scammers are ever refining their methods and now they are specifically targeting migrants new to this country and those migrants in the process of sponsoring family members to join them in Australia - and it seems obvious that they have done considerable research in selecting their victims.
In particular, they are approaching migrants recently from India with a story that a major error has been discovered in the paperwork that authorised their arrival and often the threat of deportation is used unless a newly discovered bill owing is paid - immediately.
This approach relies heavily on the custom in India of bribe paying to get any sort of paperwork expedited. A new arrival presented with such a situation could expect that to be normal custom here. The scammers wisely do not claim a ridiculous amount of money and the usual demand is for about $ 2,600.
The approach to those expecting the arrival of a family member is different. It is claimed that this person has been arrested and will be instantly deported unless money to settle whatever claim is causing the problem is instantly settled. It is designed to cause panic in the receiving family and is often successful.
It now seems that the scammers are gathering background information on selected Indian target families and many victims have been surprised at the degree of knowledge used in the approach. It is quite possible that some of the scammers come from an Indian background and circulate freely in the Australian Indian community, but it is also likely that they are avid users of Facebook and other social media.
The fact that this approach is getting wide media attention will certainly make the Indian community here cautious and most likely the scammers will drop the scheme and retool their approach to target a different ethnic group.
The best defence is the sure and certain knowledge that - in this country - no legitimate arm of government ever asks for money over the phone ! Simply - hang up !
A variety of methods are used to gain the money, all of which are quickly discontinued immediately after use and which defy searches if the police are alerted. This scam has netted hundreds of thousands of dollars from honest people who have been stampeded into paying money they do not owe
Wise people simply hangup the phone because they know the tax department serves notice of any tax matter via the mail and never demands money over the phone, but the elderly and those not schooled in business practice are susceptible to shock tactics and often fall victim to this sort of crime.
The scammers are ever refining their methods and now they are specifically targeting migrants new to this country and those migrants in the process of sponsoring family members to join them in Australia - and it seems obvious that they have done considerable research in selecting their victims.
In particular, they are approaching migrants recently from India with a story that a major error has been discovered in the paperwork that authorised their arrival and often the threat of deportation is used unless a newly discovered bill owing is paid - immediately.
This approach relies heavily on the custom in India of bribe paying to get any sort of paperwork expedited. A new arrival presented with such a situation could expect that to be normal custom here. The scammers wisely do not claim a ridiculous amount of money and the usual demand is for about $ 2,600.
The approach to those expecting the arrival of a family member is different. It is claimed that this person has been arrested and will be instantly deported unless money to settle whatever claim is causing the problem is instantly settled. It is designed to cause panic in the receiving family and is often successful.
It now seems that the scammers are gathering background information on selected Indian target families and many victims have been surprised at the degree of knowledge used in the approach. It is quite possible that some of the scammers come from an Indian background and circulate freely in the Australian Indian community, but it is also likely that they are avid users of Facebook and other social media.
The fact that this approach is getting wide media attention will certainly make the Indian community here cautious and most likely the scammers will drop the scheme and retool their approach to target a different ethnic group.
The best defence is the sure and certain knowledge that - in this country - no legitimate arm of government ever asks for money over the phone ! Simply - hang up !
Tuesday, 4 October 2016
Diplomatic Immunity !
In modern parlance the word "Diplomat " has become synonymous with "Spy " ! It is conceded that scattered throughout the members of a diplomatic mission are people who represent the security services and who are working undercover to gain information. By International arrangement, all diplomats are protected from harassment by the host country by what is called "Diplomatic Immunity ".
The land on which the embassy is located is deemed to be the sovereign soil of the country over which its flag flies. It can not be entered or searched by agents of the host country, nor can any person who takes refuge there be arrested. Usually, this protection is extended to cars used by the diplomatic mission and the protected person is immune to the laws and by-laws which apply to ordinary citizens.
One unintended consequence is that most diplomatic missions use this diplomatic cover to refuse to pay for parking fines and to escape punishment for infringements like driving under the influence of alcohol. As a consequence, most world cities that host diplomatic missions have a huge backlog of unpaid fines and often this includes damage to public property.
Anger and resentment arises when diplomatic vehicles kill or injure citizens of the host country. An innocent local driver who is uninsured has no hope of recovering restitution from an at fault diplomatic vehicle involved in a crash. Worse - if that local driver suffers long term injuries and permanent incapacity no compensation may be forthcoming.
The only redress available to the host country is to declare the guilty diplomat "persona non gratia " and require them to remove themselves from that country. Usually this draws a stiff protest from the affected country and may sour relations, but rarely does it deliver any payment for the injured.
In recent times many countries that regard themselves as "civilized " have demanded that their diplomats obey local laws very strictly. Unfortunately, they are in the minority. Abuse of the "Diplomatic Immunity " protection is still rampant and the only real redress would be a change of the International agreement to exclude motor vehicles from that cover - and that is unlikely.
The International community is hoping that the arrival of self driving cars will eliminate this problem. The lack of a driver will solve the inebriation issue and self driving cars simply deposit their passengers and return to their base. That eliminates the parking problem.
A new development in the interim is causing concern. The car industry has managed to link navigation systems to "read " the posted speed limits that apply and these are now being used to govern the cars speed. If the car is matching the posted speed limit and the driver accelerates the accelerator is inactive. It is thought this may moderate the speed problem with embassy cars.
Many experts condemn the idea as downright dangerous. There are times when an illegal use of speed may save the car occupants from death. This is an idea that is theoretically brilliant, but deadly in a practical sense - and should be abandoned.
Far better to amend Diplomatic Immunity to preclude the waiver of civil fines !
The land on which the embassy is located is deemed to be the sovereign soil of the country over which its flag flies. It can not be entered or searched by agents of the host country, nor can any person who takes refuge there be arrested. Usually, this protection is extended to cars used by the diplomatic mission and the protected person is immune to the laws and by-laws which apply to ordinary citizens.
One unintended consequence is that most diplomatic missions use this diplomatic cover to refuse to pay for parking fines and to escape punishment for infringements like driving under the influence of alcohol. As a consequence, most world cities that host diplomatic missions have a huge backlog of unpaid fines and often this includes damage to public property.
Anger and resentment arises when diplomatic vehicles kill or injure citizens of the host country. An innocent local driver who is uninsured has no hope of recovering restitution from an at fault diplomatic vehicle involved in a crash. Worse - if that local driver suffers long term injuries and permanent incapacity no compensation may be forthcoming.
The only redress available to the host country is to declare the guilty diplomat "persona non gratia " and require them to remove themselves from that country. Usually this draws a stiff protest from the affected country and may sour relations, but rarely does it deliver any payment for the injured.
In recent times many countries that regard themselves as "civilized " have demanded that their diplomats obey local laws very strictly. Unfortunately, they are in the minority. Abuse of the "Diplomatic Immunity " protection is still rampant and the only real redress would be a change of the International agreement to exclude motor vehicles from that cover - and that is unlikely.
The International community is hoping that the arrival of self driving cars will eliminate this problem. The lack of a driver will solve the inebriation issue and self driving cars simply deposit their passengers and return to their base. That eliminates the parking problem.
A new development in the interim is causing concern. The car industry has managed to link navigation systems to "read " the posted speed limits that apply and these are now being used to govern the cars speed. If the car is matching the posted speed limit and the driver accelerates the accelerator is inactive. It is thought this may moderate the speed problem with embassy cars.
Many experts condemn the idea as downright dangerous. There are times when an illegal use of speed may save the car occupants from death. This is an idea that is theoretically brilliant, but deadly in a practical sense - and should be abandoned.
Far better to amend Diplomatic Immunity to preclude the waiver of civil fines !
Monday, 3 October 2016
A Lesser Confrontation !
All through the years of the cold war the world trembled at the prospect of a nuclear exchange between America and Russia. Both countries remained on hair trigger alert with nuclear armed bombers constantly in the air and silo based missiles targeting enemy cities.
The tension eased with the collapse of the Soviet Union. The nuclear club had extended its membership but China was less threatening as it embarked on a quest to become the manufacturing centre for the world. The main " unknown " was the belligerent regime in North Korea that was amassing one of the worlds biggest armies and was intent on developing both ICBM's and nuclear warheads.
Today, North Korea is a bit of a joke in many circles. It is constantly threatening nuclear war on both South Korea and the United States and yet is is probably one of the least developed regimes on the planet. It is constantly wracked with famine and when seen from space its countryside resembles the dark age of Europe - bereft of light in contrast to teeming Asia next door.
North Korea may be a major threat sometime in the near future but at present it lacks the ability to hit major distant targets and it is slowly gaining the skill to miniaturise nuclear war heads to fit on ICBM's. If it continues on that course the world powers may agree to take action to neutralise the threat.
The world was not unduly fussed when both India and Pakistan tested nuclear technology and joined the nuclear club. They were both deemed " civilized " countries although their mutual enmity ran deep and stemmed from the breakup of the old British Raj which once ruled India. This nuclear arsenal seemed more a matter of self defence than destined for attack.
India and Pakistan have fought two brief wars before they gained nuclear technology and in both cases the cause was Kashmir. When Britain granted India independence it was soon clear that the Hindu and Muslim religions could not peacefully coexist in one country. The only answer was to split India and create the country of Pakistan and this led to a great migration as Muslims quit India for Pakistan and Hindus left Pakistan for the safety of India.
One small segment of the old India remained undecided. The residents of Kashmir were predominantly Muslim but they were not keen to come under Pakistani rule. They wanted independence, and that was promised after a vote - that never took place. Kashmir is jointly ruled by India and Pakistan, divided by what is termed the " line of control ".
The problem is that Pakistan has a history of military coups and even when it has a civilian government control is far from guaranteed. The country has a border with Afghanistan and elements of the military have fostered al Qaeda because that serves their interest and it is highly likely that Osama bin Laden was sheltered under their orbit. The Americans did not announce their raid once they discovered his presence and had they done so he would most likely have been spirited away to safety.
These same anti western elements inside the Pakistani government are stirring trouble by sending saboteurs into India and there is fresh fighting along the Kashmiri line of control. India is unlikely to first use nuclear weapons in anger but just how secure the arsenal is in Pakistan is an open question. There is a constant fear that extremist elements could supply nukes to terrorist groups.
Perhaps that is the greatest possibility of a nuclear exchange running out of control. Should an Indian city be annihilated by a Pakistani supplied nuclear bomb there is no doubt that India would retaliate. That makes Kashmir the most dangerous place on earth when it comes to the trigger for a nuclear war !
The tension eased with the collapse of the Soviet Union. The nuclear club had extended its membership but China was less threatening as it embarked on a quest to become the manufacturing centre for the world. The main " unknown " was the belligerent regime in North Korea that was amassing one of the worlds biggest armies and was intent on developing both ICBM's and nuclear warheads.
Today, North Korea is a bit of a joke in many circles. It is constantly threatening nuclear war on both South Korea and the United States and yet is is probably one of the least developed regimes on the planet. It is constantly wracked with famine and when seen from space its countryside resembles the dark age of Europe - bereft of light in contrast to teeming Asia next door.
North Korea may be a major threat sometime in the near future but at present it lacks the ability to hit major distant targets and it is slowly gaining the skill to miniaturise nuclear war heads to fit on ICBM's. If it continues on that course the world powers may agree to take action to neutralise the threat.
The world was not unduly fussed when both India and Pakistan tested nuclear technology and joined the nuclear club. They were both deemed " civilized " countries although their mutual enmity ran deep and stemmed from the breakup of the old British Raj which once ruled India. This nuclear arsenal seemed more a matter of self defence than destined for attack.
India and Pakistan have fought two brief wars before they gained nuclear technology and in both cases the cause was Kashmir. When Britain granted India independence it was soon clear that the Hindu and Muslim religions could not peacefully coexist in one country. The only answer was to split India and create the country of Pakistan and this led to a great migration as Muslims quit India for Pakistan and Hindus left Pakistan for the safety of India.
One small segment of the old India remained undecided. The residents of Kashmir were predominantly Muslim but they were not keen to come under Pakistani rule. They wanted independence, and that was promised after a vote - that never took place. Kashmir is jointly ruled by India and Pakistan, divided by what is termed the " line of control ".
The problem is that Pakistan has a history of military coups and even when it has a civilian government control is far from guaranteed. The country has a border with Afghanistan and elements of the military have fostered al Qaeda because that serves their interest and it is highly likely that Osama bin Laden was sheltered under their orbit. The Americans did not announce their raid once they discovered his presence and had they done so he would most likely have been spirited away to safety.
These same anti western elements inside the Pakistani government are stirring trouble by sending saboteurs into India and there is fresh fighting along the Kashmiri line of control. India is unlikely to first use nuclear weapons in anger but just how secure the arsenal is in Pakistan is an open question. There is a constant fear that extremist elements could supply nukes to terrorist groups.
Perhaps that is the greatest possibility of a nuclear exchange running out of control. Should an Indian city be annihilated by a Pakistani supplied nuclear bomb there is no doubt that India would retaliate. That makes Kashmir the most dangerous place on earth when it comes to the trigger for a nuclear war !
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)