Sieg Heil !

There is something remarkably reminiscent about the nineteen thirties and what is happening in our Pacific ocean neighbourhood.   We called that the era of " appeasement " and it reached an awful climax in 1939 when the world went to war.

China claims most of the South China Sea on the spurious grounds of a line on an ancient map.  The ruling of the world court should have settled that but China simply ignored that ruling and went ahead dredging sand to create artificial islands which are now equipped with naval facilities and airstrips - and guarded by defensive and offensive missile batteries.

China is fast building a blue water navy and aggressively challenging shipping using the South China sea.  This ignores commercial trade and is directed mainly at the naval presence of other nations.  It seems inevitable that this will one day result in a naval clash, the outcome of which can not be predicted.

China is the worlds most populous nation and it has an immense diaspora.   There are significant Chinese communities in most small Pacific nations and these are usually commercially significant and often resented by more numerous indigenous populations.  At times of stress there have been incidents where this resentment has led to riots and anti Chinese pogroms.  We are fast reaching the stage where China may actively offer protection to its compatriots living overseas.  This was a common cause of border intrusion in the nineteen-thirties European tension era.

Economists detect a pattern in Chinese overseas aid.   The " Belt and Road " initiative to restore the viability of the old silk road trading regime aims to create modern facilities to support trade and soft loans are offered to small countries to enable work to progress.  When these nations struggle to make repayments China is very supportive.  Payment arrears can usually be transformed into a new agreement which brings local infrastructure under Chinese direct control, and often this has a military significance.   China gained control of a port in Sri Lanka by this method.

We are seeing Chinese aid money slipping into the pockets of politicians in many countries as bribes to ensure that Chinese companies with direct links to its Communist government are successful in gaining access where their goods and services can result in valuable data being collected and returned to China.   This is part of an expansionist drive across the region that seems to use the massive trade surplus as a weapon to achieve military superiority.

The big unanswered question is what exactly are Chinese intentions ?  It used its massive millions of workers to achieve dominance as the " world's factory " and now a newly emerged middle class is putting pressure on food supplies.  China is fast becoming a military power with the ability to project that power to other parts of the world.   Significantly, Xi Jinping has assumed dictatorial control and the future course of China is locked away in his mind.

In the 1930's the fate of the world resided in a single mind and that resulted in the death of millions. Let us hope for a better outcome this time !