Much Adoo About Nothing !

The much hyped person to person meeting between US  President Donald Trump and North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un produced mutually signed statements that they would hold further talks.  President Trump volunteered a suspension of war games between the US and South Korean forces which will save the US a lot of money and which could be seen as being provocative.

The sack of gold at the end of the rainbow is North Korea's promise to give up its nuclear weapons but exactly what it wants in exchange is not yet clear. Now that historic meeting is out of the way the horse trading will begin between the diplomats on both sides and they will have to juggle both the needs and opinions of South Korea in any workable agreement.

It is hard to see any arrangement that unifies the two Koreas becoming reality and the reunification of Germany delivers an objective lesson.   Decades later the old Communist East Germany is still a virtual wasteland in comparison with the productive west.  West Germany has poured trillions into rebuilding the east but the stagnant years under Communist rule appears to have sapped the will to be productive and creative and the east continues to be a financial burden.

North Korea is virtually two countries.  A vast army surrounds an inner core of gifted technicians who have developed both nuclear weapons and their delivery systems.  The rest of the country is basically agrarian peasantry living in squalor.  It has become clear that South Koreans want no part of trying to absorb and educate this mass of people which would only lower their own standard of living.

Kim Jong-un desperately wants the sanctions that are squeezing the life out of his economy lifted and the promise of denuclearization has certainly grabbed the worlds attention.  What he needs is to come in out of the cold and develop a legitimate economy that does not depend on selling narcotics and forging currency to gain a living.  It is unlikely that he will be willing to give up the reign of terror he uses internally to hold dictatorial power over his country.

Kim Jong-un is no fool.  He certainly remembers what happened to Quaddafi and Ukraine when it gave up its nuclear weapons in exchange for guarantees of security by the great powers, and Trumps reneging on the Iran deal sends a sobering message. North Korea is well known for reneging on past agreements and whatever the outcome it is likely that nukes will be hidden away in reserve as the final guarantor.

Ideally, negotiations with North Korea would be better under the auspices of the United Nations, but that is not the Trump way. Any deal will be personally negotiated by Trump and his hawkish advisers and North Korea will be heavily influenced by both China and Russia, who have their own interests in play.

There is a chance that a great benefit may emerge from these talks - if North Korea is not merely playing for time and Trump can conclude a legitimate deal that benefits all sides, but it will not be easily won and it will not happen quickly.   The biggest problem is that to banish a nuclear nightmare it will involve direct negotiations between two of the weirdest human beings on this planet.

This will be something that will one day be pondered in the history books !