On A Wing - And A Prayer !

This week the Australian Energy Market Operator issued a " level 2 alert "  which is the highest alert in the system.   That warned that it was forecasting a serious lack of reserve power later in the day. The purpose of this alert is to warn operators that additional supplies may have to be activated from gas or other means to avoid blackouts

It is chilling to learn that we are short on power generation at this early stage of winter.   What happens if we get a blast of frigidity from the frozen south and how will we cope in six months time when summer returns ?  It seems that our generating capacity is skating along on a wing - and a prayer !

One of the reasons is that we are relying on some very old fossil fuel generating plants to keep the lights on and their reliability is now suspect.  In the Hunter valley Bayswater was down to just one of its four generators after scheduling one for maintenance and Liddell was running at about half capacity.  At the same time,  Vales Point had one of its two coal fired units trip this week.

Apart from the inconvenience of citizens of this state sitting in darkness in their homes, the remainder of our manufacturing economy is at risk.  A power blackout for only a short time can be disastrous and already we are getting a warning from the aluminium industry.   Tomago is a smelter that uses about a tenth of the power generated in this state and it has had to  curtail operations by a third because of power unavailability.

Smelting aluminium relies on continuity and any break in the power supply means that potlines have to go through the long and difficult restarting process.  The cost can be horrendous and any doubt on the reliability of the electricity supply seriously throws the viability of the entire operation into doubt.

The big difference is now generating power is no longer in government hands but relies on trading companies that have a first commitment to delivering profit to their shareholders.  There are two factors that heavily influence all decisions that they make.   Can existing plants continue to deliver the end product profitably to the company, and what costs are involved in upgrading, or replacing them with newer technology.

That is exactly where we are at this point in time.  Those decisions are in the hands of companies who first look to their own profitability and the time factor in making decisions is imperative in keeping the lights on because of the construction time before new generating capacity can be brought online.

To further complicate this issue, power generation is a state responsibility in each state and territory and yet most people will apportion the blame on the Federal government if the lights go out.   The Australian power supply is probably an issue that ranks in importance with issues like immigration and defence.   Perhaps the Federal government needs to grant itself emergency powers to take whatever steps are necessary to ensure control or power generation and ensure adequate supply is forthcoming. It is unsatisfactory that such a vital public amenity can rest with the capricious decisions of private companies who lack public accountability !