China's " Creature " !

The speed with which backward North Korea is developing ICBMs capable of reaching world targets is suspicious.  Just a handful of world countries have the technical ability to achieve that capability and somehow this backward regime seems to have mastered the technical skills in little more than a decade.

North Korea is a very valuable chess piece in the power game being played by China.   It certainly suits Xi Jinping to have a totally independent rogue third world country threatening the west with nuclear weapons.   That allows China to play the role of mediator and strengthens China's hand when it seeks concessions in return for its help with the situation.

The pot of gold in the middle of this poker game is the ownership and control of the South China sea. By sheer bluff China has managed to wrest physical presence from other nations and an adverse ruling by the United Nations law of the sea is being totally ignored.    Rocks and sandy islets have been turned into sand islands and progressively the Chinese military have turned these into mini fortresses with safe harbours and airstrips.    They are being turned into  military bases equipped with missile defences.

The North Korean economy would quickly collapse without China supplying its needs and buying its exports. Xi Jinping claims this is necessary because he fears a flood of North Korean refugees swamping his country if Kim Jung-un loses control of his repressed millions.   America has asked China to use its power to bring North Korea to the bargaining table but it is obvious that mere token efforts have been made.

The flash point between China and the west is the South China sea.   It is a world navigation route and China demands unconditional control of sea movements and the air space above.  The US regularly sails navy ships through this contested area without seeking permission from China to refute this claimed ownership and there is an increasing risk of confrontation spinning out of control.  It is becoming a test of the right of conquest against the rule of law.

Xi Jinping probably hopes that as the risk escalates with North Korea's development of ICBMs the United States may accede to his claim on the South China sea in exchange for forcing North Korea to the bargaining table.  That is a dangerous gamble.   Perhaps he misjudges the influence he has over Kim Jung un.  The North Korean population has been whipped to a frenzy of nationalism and a retreat my be out of the question.

The other factor is the massive United States military now under the control of a very inexperienced new president.    We seem to be heading into an area of danger most though ended along with the years of the " Cold War " !