Thursday, 20 July 2017

Bolt Holes !

The Census does more than just count the number of people living in Australia.   When the statistical analysis people do their work it reveals a lot of hidden data that allows for more in-depth  plans on  how this country is run.  The latest census confirms that ever expanding home prices are sharply reducing the proportion of Australians who are home owners.  It showed that home ownership is down seven percent over the past decade for the 35-44 age group.

Another surprising statistic is that Australia has 360,000 vacant homes.  Were these to become available on the rental market they would go a long way towards easing the rental shortage which is hitting potential young families with a double whammy.   Too many people seeking too few rental properties, pushing weekly rent ever higher.

Just about every family knows of a house in their neighbourhood that never seems to have an occupant.  At one stage is may have been offered at auction or perhaps there is a memory of " for sale "  signs on the front lawn, but rumour has it that it will be demolished and replaced with a new home. The long delay is often attributed to councils arguing over plan approvals.

This phenomenon really started back in 08 when the last recession crisis brought fears of a repeat of 1929.  Australia fared better than most of the rest of the world.  There was total panic in a lot of countries.  The very wealthy were looking for a bolt hole where their money would be safe - and Australia looked like a good bet.  Buying a Real Estate property seemed a safe way to " park " spare cash overseas and in many cases that same foreign investor tried to secure permanent entry rights in  case the recession deepened into a world depression.

Holding Australian property remains a good bet.  The interest offering on bonds and other forms of fixed deposits are abysmal but property in Australia keeps right on rising, year after year.  A house on land that is kept vacant may deteriorate, but the value of the building block beneath continues to rise in double digit figures.  The actual ownership of many of these properties is usually listed in a remote tax shelter.

Putting the property on the rental market spooks many overseas investors.  It would accrue profit that would draw the attention of the tax authorities in both Australia and their home country and they prefer to keep the source and type of their investments confidential.   It will probably take specific legislation to penalize vacant homes to change that position.

Perhaps those with a long memory recall the extreme housing shortage at the end of the second world war.  At that time it was common for desperate people to break into a vacant home and establish " squatters rights ".  At the time, the law condoned this and the owner basically had to negotiate the terms for them to voluntarily depart.

The census has shone the spotlight on the problem. Now the politicians must decide whether to use the carrot - or the stick - to resolve this reluctance to open a closed market to relieve a dire rental shortage !


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