Prelude to War ?

It is said that those who fail to learn from history are destined to repeat it !   Some very wise heads concluded that the only lessons to be learned from both the first and second world wars - was that integrating Europe into a confederation of states was the only way to avoid the inevitability of a third world war.

The outcome of that plan was the European Union.  The initial concept was to stabilize the production of coal and steel but this quickly enlarged to envisage a "common market " where goods would flow between countries without border control and duties and eventually citizens would be able to travel the length and breadth of Europe without the need for passport controls.

It slowly accumulated member states and its centre of gravity was established in tiny little neutral Belgium - at Brussels.  The threat of war was not entirely eliminated.   The Soviet Union and its satellites presented an opposing ideology until a financial collapse saw the block dissipate and many states join the EU.  It was even possible that Russia could become a member state.

Perhaps the adoption of the Euro as a common currency was a time misjudgement.  The economies of some smaller member countries was too fragile for rapid implementation, resulting in the need for bail outs.   The world recession of 2008 certainly put strain on the alliance and this has led to the return of tribalism.   The national tribal characteristics within old countries borders have awoken and started shaking the hegemony of the EU.

We are seeing political stability turn in new directions.. The voters in many countries have turned away from traditional parties and embraced new politics in the form of a national awakening. In much of the world the status quo is under threat and old alliances are being abandoned.  The recent American presidential election delivered an unexpected outcome.

World stability is under threat.  Russia has returned to an aggressive stance and the rise of China is straining old alliances. Britain has elected to leave the EU and it is quite possible that the entire concept might disintegrate.   It is a chillling thought that the spectre of war has returned to haunt the nation states of Europe.

Those that remember the  1930's battle for the world's minds between Fascism and Communism have vivid recall of the rigors of " the great depression ".  An orderly world had ceased to exist and the lines of unemployed seemed endless.   It was thought that the recession of 2008 might be the start of a similar event, and that possibility has not entirely been eliminated.

How strange that on the outbreak of world war two the lack of money to fix the economy turned into a flood to buy munitions and those unemployment lines morphed into a manpower shortage.  We shudder in horror at the excesses and cruelty, but some would claim it was a " civilized " war because the horrors of poison gas was not employed by either side.

Hopefully, the great powers who juggle the levers of world control are not thinking that a civilized world war to bring finance under control would be the answer to our problems.  A war where nuclear weapons remained an unused threat similar to gas in the last war.

Unfortunately, it is the return of tribalism that makes such thinking possible  !